Michigan 20, Northwestern, 17

[iam416]

[WingsFan]

No way um loses 2 in a row there

[hack]

LOL, and well done, using ``ArmPunt" in that context.

[Jeff Buchanan]

There was a thread at mgo discussing the Vegas spread (11.5 trending upward to 13.5). First, the OP thought the spread was too low and that M should easily win by 20+ points. He then offered S&P+ data to support his view. He was immediately (and correctly) negged for assuming Vegas sets odds based on past team performance. They are set so that bets come in about equally on both sides ..... that explains why the odds shifted a bit in NfW favor after they were issued. I don't bet real money but if I did I would have taken M at -11.5. At -13.5 it starts getting dicey.

Forgetting the betting odds for a moment, M has a history under Harbaugh of not performing well on the road. Therefore, incorporating the Neb result and extrapolating it to another beat down occurring in Evanston is a really bad proposition. Add to that that M also has a history of fluky things happening in Evanston (A-Trains inexplicable fumble - he just dropped it) enroute to the go ahead touchdown late in the game) and you have the likelihood of a close game that M will probably win.

NfW is 0-3 but are they as bad as their record or is M as good as they looked last Saturday? Does a bye before NfW plays M a good thing for them? The Kitty's have a good defense (24th in S&P) and better than anything we've faced so far except ND (#8) - and M lost to those turds. What NfW doesn't have is a good offense. They get a lot of yards (#47 at 420ypg) but not a lot of points (#88). M ranks #24 in RZ defense at 1.8 points per RZ attempt. NB NfW ranks #7 at 1.3 but that's after only 3 games against relatively shitty teams that all beat them so, ????.

I think M will win by two scores if Thorson is under the same kind of pressure that Martinez faced and the same run stopping juggernaut M showed off v. Neb is repeated in Evanston. I thought that M was as rush lane disciplined as I've seen them in a long time. That's opponent independent so don't go saying, "uh, Nebraska, how'd you do against Winbush" type shit. That is the Kitty's bread and butter - running off the crazy shit that goes on in Fitspatrick's schemes. Continue to stay in your lanes and fuck all that crazy shit.

I like M at say, 34 - 13 ...... unless and of course crazy shit works or fluky things happen again.

[Rocky Bleier]

The only prediction that I'll make is that Northwestern will test Jordan Glasgow with the Nebraska play in which he left the middle of the field wide open for an easy TD if not for Marshall's deflection.

[iam416]

He was immediately (and correctly) negged for assuming Vegas sets odds based on past team performance. They are set so that bets come in about equally on both sides

That's absolutely not true. Vegas opens the lines at what they think is the best number for the game. Vegas has no interest in setting bad lines because bad lines will get killed. Bets are rarely 50/50. Vegas always has a handful of games that are huge liabilities and for almost every game they have a preferred winner. They just deal in such volume that their preferred winners/losers even out and they cash the juice.

Right now you have 65% of the public on M. The line has moved up a little bit. 64% of bettors are backing BYU against Washington. That line has moved from 16' to 17'!

They want a good line and absolutely use their analytics and "capping" to set a good one.

[iam416]

Last week WV was a huge public play. And the books got drilled. Ohio State was also a big public play. But, so were Georgia, Hawaii, TCU. They're going to get at least a dozen games where they're looking at 65% bet on a certain team. They need to avoid getting killed on those games, so they need to make sure the 65% is on a line they feel good about.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, of course you are correct re betting lines set by Vegas. I don't understand them and should just STFU about them. I probably got in my mind something that was in that post and just mis-quoted it here. Going back and looking at that mgo post the guy that negged the OP said it in a way pretty much like you said it.

BTW, I made Sean's pics for last Saturday in your pool. They were awful and dropped him way down in success rate demonstrating again that not only do I not know shit about betting I also can't pick CFB winners.

I will now sit down.

[iam416]

It's a pet peeve of mine -- that Vegas sets lines to get 50/50. It's way more nuanced than that. They set the best lines they can. That doesn't mean they won't move the line in response to betting, but they're perfectly fine taking in a 65/35 split rather than setting a shit line that sharps can crush later.

That's all. As it relates to M-nFw -- 14 is a big number and 14 and the hook is a huge number. Moving from 11' to 13' is ok, but that doesn't change a lot outcomes. 11' is a lot like 12'. The move to 13 is significant -- a lot more games played at 13. But 14' is the huge jump if you're a M backer. That's the one that will make you reconsider. Because then you're looking at a 21 point game potentially getting backdoored on a garbage time drive.

[iam416]

nFw has lost at least one home game by at least 14 points in each of the last 5 seasons. That includes two 10-3 teams. Last year's 10-3 squad lost to Penn State 31-7. M seems like a good candidate to really put one on nFw this week. The OL is rickety; the QB situation is just weird and they don't have any gamebreakers to make Don Brown's blitz-happy defense pay. They'll have a hard time scoring 10 without significant help from M. The defense is fine, but M should be superior enough to run and pass with some comfort. Not UNL comfort, but enough to score in the 30s. So, I'm with Buchanan on this one -- 34-13 sounds about right.

I will say this -- nFw really isn't as bad as they were in their losses. They outplayed Duke for large portions of the game and had something like 10 drives get to Duke territory -- and they scored 7. Lots of stalling out. Akron scoring in so many bullshit ways that it's an extreme outlier game.

[Jeff Buchanan]

NfW's wunderkind tail back has retired from football for medical reasons, it was reported today. He was a productive part of NW's offense given Thorson's limitations post injury and rehab. Good for M, bad for NW. Doesn't change my score prediction though. One less runner that Glasgow has to worry about for the first half. Hudson will play in the second - maybe - if he has demonstrated he can tackle without drawing a flag. He will be super scrutinized.

[WingsFan]

Jeremy Larkin lead NW in rushing with 346 yards on 72 attempts this season. Their second leading rusher only has 21 yards on 12 attempts. He also is second on their team in receptions.

[iam416]

[WingsFan]

When was the last time we went into Evenston and won convincingly? Seems like every trip something strange happens. They are our version of when Tressel played at Purdue.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The last time M lost in Evanston to NfW was in 2000. That was the game A-Train was galloping to the end zone with M leading 51-47 to seal the deal and just dropped the ball. The ball was recovered by Northwestern and they subsequently scored to win 54-51.

The two most recent visits to Evanston in 2013 and 2014 wound up as thrillers with M winning in 3 OT on a 5y TD pass from Devin Gardner in the last OT in 2013 and M winning a FG contest 10-9 in 2014.

I don't think strange things happen, with the exception of the A-Train fumble in 2000 - it's that Northwestern, whether coached by Gary Barnett or Pat Fitzgerald, is always well prepared for the Michigan game. With the bye week for NfW coming last Saturday, you can bet they'll come to play this weekend and will be prepared to do so. If M's players read their press clippings from last Saturday and think they can walk in and throw their jerseys on the field and win, they'll lose.

To me, this is going to be the big picture thing to watch. Can M string together consecutive dominating BT wins against the less talented conference teams on their schedule like they should? Can they string together 4 wins with the last two demonstrating a back-to-back functional and efficient offense while continuing to throttle opponents with their D?