Michigan 45, SMU 20.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I may or may not preview this game in any detail. M is a 35 point favorite against what appears to be nearly the worst CFB team in the nation (#116/130). It's really too bad as M needs a bit more of a challenge than playing what amounts to a good HS team. I worry that, mentally, M players get their heads out of the game and that carries over when Nebraska comes to town the following week.

Yeah, maybe you come out of games like this with less worries about injuries and you get to play more guys on the roster which means they get more live reps - always a good thing. So, there is that. I think the risk of a mental let down going into Big Ten play though is not insignificant.

[AlabamAlum]

[iam416]

I predict Hannibal will not predict a single M cover all year.

This is another one of them LoS games that means SMU can't do anything offensively and M can do whatever it wants with the ball. I'll back M to cover in my B10 picks.

[WM Wolverine]

This game should be uglier than Western, reserves will gets lots of PT. Score? M covers by the 3rd quarter...

[Jeff Buchanan]

There isn't a lot to talk about in this game. SMU has not looked good in it's first two games. One SMU analyst in an interview said that previously thought of star Pro-Style QB Ben Hicks "has looked confused" and with accuracy issues. He's a 2014 commit and is now playing as a Junior so, he's been around. However, his stats are not very impressive: He's not broken 60% completion rate and is struggling this year with a 48% completion rate over his first two game. He was an interception machine in 2016 and 17, has 2 INTs this season. The drop off this ear is probably due to new HC Sonny Dykes and Rhett Lashlee as OC. Lashlee was Auburn's OC in 2013 when Auburn went to the CFP. So, the resume is there.

Braeden West is the Mustang's Senior running back. He's OK but he's running behind an undersized OL. Both OTs are seniors, Guards and C are Sophomores and Juniors. RT is the only offensive lineman over 300lbs. Receivers are mid-sized, the leading receiver is a transfer, none of them have been dominant in 2018. They do have a big TE at 6'7", 263lbs. In the one bit of the TCU/SMU game I watched, I didn't see him worked in. so????

Defense is #124/130 and has given up 450+ yards, most of it in the air, and 44 pts per game. Any other questions?

There was thread last night at mgo that asked "What Do You Want to See v. SMU." After scrolling through two pages of of HS level bitching about certain posters getting banned, there still wasn't a lot useful insight provided by mgo observers. Nothing new there. It was a good question though. Do you just grind it out, which M is imminently capable of doing v. SMU and in the process get better at bread and butter run plays, do you mix in a few passes, a balanced number of them? Do you run new plays or keep it vanilla?

I don't know. My take is that JH won't put anything out on the field that is at all exotic. He's gonna stick to his script of a run-centric offense and mix in some passes. If he runs more than 65 plays and calls more than 25 of them as passes, I'll be surprised. That is because, he will continue to shield the tackle issues in pass-pro. Good strategy as the competition gets tougher? Probably because unless there is some kind of miracle worked by Ed Warriner in the next couple of games, Harbughffense will continue to use the passing game sparingly to avoid the big hit on Patterson.

The defense is going to score some points in this game if Ben Hicks is as wild as he's been in his first two games throwing the ball..... and SMU will have to pass. Watch for M to tighten up edge play on D, both an inherent weakness of Brown's scheme and some overly aggressive LB blitzing with DTs getting sealed inside.

Patterson should have a good day as long as he doesn't get greedy. He's had that issue Ol'Miss and we've seen it pop up several times in his first to games with M. That is a nit-picking issue as his performance has been so much better than what M has suffered through in the last 3y, it marks a major turn around for the program. While it's hard to see live, and I'm going to this game, watch for what look like pin and pull power run plays that turn in to IZ or OZ chunk plays. I'd also like to see the OL effective in opening giant gaps on straight power runs, nothing fancy or decpetive, that Higdon and Evans blow through. Finally, as much as the FG kicking sucks and would benefit from live practice, Red Zone efficiency that includes a TD every time M is there , would be a good sign.

M will not run a lot of plays v. SMU but will be efficient if not agonizingly down tempo slow. 7 trips to the SMU end zone seems about right for the offense. 42-0 would not surprise me if the SMU offense is as bad as it has been so far. I can't help but think it's going to be better ..... a shut-out would be nice, though. Anything more put up on the scoreboard by M will come from the D or STs so, this could be a real blow-out if that happens. A punt or KO return by Thomas for a TD would be nice to see too.

[Hannibal]

I want to see a pocket passing game. I want to see more than 60 offensive snaps. Against WMU we only got 52. A lot of that was because of short fields but we still ran very slowly and shortened the hell out of the game. If we have the ball at the end of the 1st half, I want to see a 2 minute drill regardless of the score.

[WingsFan]

I watched the TCU - SMU game and (SMU) looked very good early on up 9-0 I believe. They were moving the ball well, then started shooting themselves in the foot with fumbles/penaltys and it was all downhill after that.

[Hannibal]

I want to see a pocket passing game. And I'd like to see lots of offensive snaps. >65 at least. Last game didn't have enough. Field position and big plays played a part in that but I still wish that they would move a bit faster. They also didn't try to execute a 2 minute offense at the end of the first half.

Who knows. Maybe this will be the one game where Shea throws for his 350 yards and 4 TDs and we win 63-7.

[hack]

Hannibal wants to see a pocket passing game. And lots of offensive snaps. And a two-minute drill at the end of the first half if they can.

(I fully agree with all of this, though I can't see the first one happening. I want to see more of Patterson on the move. We can't passpro, but we have a QB who can throw on the move. Gotta explore that to the fullest. Also, I want to see Hudson and Mayfield getting tons of snaps.)

[Hannibal]

Well shit my posts got eaten and then they showed back up.

[hack]

I blame the GOP.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In re SMU ...... Seth just did his usual Fe-Fi-Fo-Film of SMU's offense. It's not much better than what I posted regarding analysis but it puts a bit more flesh on the bones than I did.

I should have noted that Dykes is from the Hal Mumme coaching tree and is an Air-Raid devote. I have no doubt that Dykes/Hicks/Lashlee will come out firing - how deep seems to be a question as the YPC is a paltry 4.9. Not good. Rain v. TCU? Maybe. It does not appear that they have the receivers to get separation and go deep like they did in 2016/17 and put two of them in the NFL draft, one 2nd round.

One other thing: Let's hope Dykes, working to bomb the shit out of M's D, doesn't suddenly find pay-dirt v. M with Hicks hitting 70% of his passes.

Come to think of it, I am so used to wondering when the next shoe will drop with M football, I think of shit like this a lot. I can only remember fondly when approaching each Saturday during the football season, there was little doubt M was going to win ........ that was probably during the height of Bo's greatness in the period '71 - '80 where in those 9 years he had less than 10 wins in a season only twice. BTW, in that same period Bo took his team to the Rose 5 times and went 1-4. I never worried about that because ...... there was always next season. These days the next season is always an unknown.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-foe-film-smu-2018

[Hannibal]

I
Come to think of it, I am so used to wondering when the next shoe will drop with M football, I think of shit like this a lot. I can only remember fondly when approaching each Saturday during the football season, there was little doubt M was going to win ........ that was probably during the height of Bo's greatness in the period '71 - '80 where in those 9 years he had less than 10 wins in a season only twice. BTW, in that same period Bo took his team to the Rose 5 times and went 1-4. I never worried about that because ...... there was always next season. These days the next season is always an unknown.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-foe-film-smu-2018

I dearly miss the feeling of which you speak. I had that too until late in the Moeller era, and the 1997 season reignited it for me for a few years. Even after that I looked forward to every Saturday until late in the Hoke era. As recent as five years ago, fall Saturdays were off limits for vacations and weddings. Not anymore.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I thought a little study this morning of SMU's offense would be helpful. First, SMU runs an Air Raid offense so, expect a ton of passing. The majority of throws to date by QB Ben Hicks have been of the dink and dunk variety mostly because, like M, SMU can't pass protect. When they can, they throw long to this guy: James Proche.

https://smumustangs.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4699

He's good ..... at least he looks good on film (see link below). The Dykes approach to the shorter passing game involves getting little slotty guys into space. Brown's defensive scheme makes this kind of short passing game somewhat productive and since SMU isn't going to run inside, this is their run game.

In the run game, SMU can advantage itself using the Speed Option out of the Pistol. M has had problems, not unlike a good many defense, defending the edge but Brown's aggressive scheme can be punished doing that. Here's a good link to how the speed option works.

https://footballtoolbox.net/the-pistol-offense-2-back-offense-speed-option

I'm not sure M is going to shut this offense out. If Proche can beat coverage deep, and I suspect it will be Long covering him, SMU could score maybe more than once. I think the speed option gives M some problems too. So, my original prediction of 42-0 could look like 42-17.

[BadWolf]

Why haven't they kicked off? Is there weather in Ann Arbor?