Western Michigan @ Michigan, Saturday, Sept. 8th, Noon EDT, FS1/FSgo Video

[Hannibal]

WMU has a very good chance at the upset. Harbaugh is still completely checked out. Any hope that he would snap out of whatever lethargic haze he has been in is now gone. From now on, the only games that we will win will be against teams that are either as poorly coached as ours (only two or three of those on the schedule) or teams that overcome a huge athlete deficit with coaching (e.g. WMU or Purdue). Even Maryland is probably a pick-em at this point.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If WMU upsets M or WMU is even in the game in the 4th quarter, Hanni, I'll start to consider your position on Harbaugh (checked out) and the coaching staff (bumbling idiots).

[Cody_Russell]

[Hannibal]

Hokebaugh is 28-12 at Michigan. Hoke 1.0 was 27-13 after 40 games.

[Hannibal]

[Hannibal]

[Jeff Buchanan]

In the 2017 season WMU went 4/4 in conference and 6/6 overall. This is after PJ Fleck, now at Minnesota, led the Broncos to a 13-1 season in 2016 and a NY6 Cotton Bowl loss v. Wisconsin. Under new HC Tim Lester in 2017, even with 6 wins, WMU did not get a bowl bid. WMU suffered a whopping 21 injuries in 2017 including QB Jack Wassink who went out in WMU's 8th game missing the last 4 games which WMU lost.

Wassink, a Junior, returns for 2018. He'll be throwing to M grad transfer 6'4" Drake Harris among other capable but smaller receivers. On defense, WMU returns only 5 starters from 2017, 8 offensive starters return including RBs Lavante Bellamy and Jamari Brogan. They'll have a new LT. On D In 2017, WMU gave up 29 ppg, 378ypg (156rushing/222 passing) and ranked in the middle of the pack in both pass and rush defense. IOW, they weren't awful but neither were they good like they were in 2016. They should be a tad worse in 2018 with 5 new defensive starters, 3 of them LBs. The Broncos have two good but MAC smallish edge rushers up front, Antonio Balabani and Ali Fayad. The back end is experienced and probably the strongest part of WMU's D.

Last week WMU opened the season against Syracuse at home, loosing to a bad Syracuse team in a shoot-out 55/42. Syracuse's preseason ranking was 109th. The two teams combined for nearly 1200 yards in offense with Wassink going 19/36/2 for 379y and Bellamy and Brogan combining for 242y rushing. D'wayne Eskridge was the top receiver with 8 catches for 240y. Eskridge was recruited out of HS as a RB. He's MAC sized at 5'8" and 185lbs but runs a 4.3 40. Quick look at the stats v. Syracuse shows that the Broncos had a lot of tackles in the secondary by the Ss. They had one sack but the front 7 didn't produce as many tackles as a good defense should. Syracuse averaged over 5ypc on the ground and 10ypp in the air.

ND loss Hangover? Maybe but not likely. The home opener is going to be a nice relief from the din of ND stadium, at night. Saturday's weather calls for clouds, cool temperatures in the 70s and a 30% chance for rain. M's two biggest challenges, not from WMU necessarily but of it's own making, is going to be improving the offensive line play and 3rd down stops on D. WMU is MAC sized up front compared to ND's massive D-Line. 3 new LBs are part of a shaky WMU D that gave up a ton of yards to a shitty Syracuse team. If M's OL can't blow some interior holes for Higdon to run through, get to the edge, block on sweeps and screens and protect Patterson, this is going to be a long, ugly season and will end pretty much like Hanni predicts it will with losses to teams with talented defenses. So, OL play in this game and as an indicator for the rest of the season is key to allowing an M offense to make or break the 28.5 point spread.

I actually don't think we saw anything out of the ordinary from Don Brown's defense besides that the D gave up a lot of yards and 3 scores in the first half. The 2nd half was a different story and was more reflective of the lock down defenses that Brown puts on the field. ND came out firing and I think that surprised the M defensive coaches a bit. Winbush also hit two big plays, one each on the first two TD drives neither of which took more than a couple of minutes. Winbush also had a couple of big plays with is legs and Jones did some damage, especially on the second TD. WMU's talent level isn't the same as NDs and Wassink isn't Winbush like. Lester does have a few trick plays and he'll use them v. M. Those might produce some games but WMU is not going to consistently move the chains.

Based on last Saturday night's performance v. ND, I think the opening spread is too high. I'm not convinced that M's offense is going to suddenly look competent. If it looks marginally better and it appears that play calling has been adjusted to accommodate obvious weakness in M's OL and what fits Patterson's skill set, i.e., more shot-gun and pistol and less pro-style, under center, 5 step drops. I'll be pleased - it's progress. Hoping we'll see more quick throws to the Gentry and Perry that resemble the RPO offense we thought we'd see with Patterson at QB and a whole bunch more deep throws to Collins and DPJ who are more than capable of taking the top off WMU's defense and coming up with big plays.

If Brown delivers a defense that keeps Wassink under pressure and WMU's two headed run game in check and Patterson continues to pass at a +60% completion rate and Higdon rushes for 100+ yards, things that should all happen v. WMU, M wins by 3 TDs. You'd like more? Not going to happen. Why? (1) M's offense is not that good ..... yet. But it can take a step forward and I think it will. (2) Unless WMU lies down or quits, Harbaugh is not going to embarrass Tim Lester and the WMU team.

I'm also not entirely convinced that Don Brown's front 4, especially at the DT position, is as good as it needs to be right now. It's probably good enough to hold down WMU's offense to less than 100yards rushing but there are question marks about Dumfor and Soloman. Neither was very effective when Long threw in a few QB draws and Winbush gashed the D. OTH they did provide a stout defense against ND's Jones when he tried to run inside. Wassink is pretty much a pro-style drop back QB but, he'll run it and that ND was successful with the QB draw, expect to see it against M on Saturday.

I don't think WMU's special teams are going to be a factor. M's could be on kick returns as Ambry Thomas has unexpected vision and speed. It's unlikely that Nordin is going to kick field goals. M punting and general competency against punt and KO returns looks solid. WMU punted 5X v.Syracuse for under 40y average. Bellamy had 4 KO returns for 55y and a 13.6y average.

The X factor will be at play in this game. Watching the ND post game comments from Harbaugh (very terse) and the players (very calm), I think M will correct the big play defensive mistakes they made v. ND. I'm not as confident about the OL which continues to miss stunts and I'm pretty sure the sack-strip-fumble of Patterson that ended a promising M drive at the end of the game came from a stunt from a ND tackle over Bredeson and Runyan's side.

M by 23.5. Stan if you want to take a bet on that spread, I'll do the usual 6 pack of your choice.

[WM Wolverine]

Terrible competition is an easy fix for our offensive issues. M is way too talented for Western, M 41-7...

[Jeff Buchanan]

I wrote this preview before I did the review of the ND game by watching video and posting it in the ND 24, M 17 thread. I don't have a high confidence level in my eyeball takes play to play. I do think I'm correct in the biggest take away from that game I got after watching the video: THIS IS AN RPO offense people and it is designed for Patterson's skill set.

In the other thread, I called it the Harbaughffense we expected with Patterson under center. There were execution errors for sure but the framework, IMO, is there.

So, bottom line, v. WMU, improve on the overall execution of the offense JH is running. Throw in some more deep ball options for Patterson. Nail the stunts.

[UMStan White]

" The 2nd half was a different story and was more reflective of the lock down defenses that Brown puts on the field."

Hey Pollyanna did you listen to Winbush's press conference following the game? The second half wasn't an improvement of UM's defense--it was related to ND coming out flat in the second half because the game was essentially over and ND knew it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, those comments by Winbush are probably as stupid and useful as Braylon's. Overcome by post game euphoria, Winbush wasn't that good and you can bet Brian Kelly didn't think the game was over and certainly didn't tell his players that.

[iam416]

I find it more likely than not that a team up two scores in the 2nd half over another team that showed zero inclination to score may have affected play-calling.

[hack]

Regardless of why, there's not much point in having a lights-out defense 75% of the time if during the other 25% the opponent gets enough points to win the game. That's your Don Brown defense here. Be it the fourth-quarter collapse or the adjustments-after-roasting, those game-deciding drives are going to happen. Contrast with Michigan's '97 defense, which won games by itself and never collapsed when the offense couldn't do anything.

[iam416]

That's actually the best way of looking at it -- Notre Dame scored 24 points and none of them were off of turnovers, special teams or otherwise short fields. That's 4 legitimate, long scoring drives.

[UMStan White]

"Winbush wasn't that good"

Well Jeff he was "good enough" to kick our ass