ND 24, Michigan 17

[hack]

Right. Exactly. Who's got it better than us?

[CGVT]

Higdon=JAG. Terrible vision. He looks like a Detroit Lions RB.

[WingsFan]

DmDfC5RXoAAnlKg.jpg

[iam416]

[hack]

Sounds right to me.

[froot loops]

Most of those playmakers that Buchanan lists are playmakers in theory. DPJ in particular, according to the recruiting rankings he is a playmaker but he has yet to show it on the field. He's young, so that is to be expected but so far he has been a JAG at wideout.

[UMStan White]

"Gun it up there and let your receivers go up and get it."

Oh you mean like Winbush did? Jeff, the fallacy in your over-analyzed review following another loss in a string of losses is that in the end, its "just win baby' Fuck excuses, Just win baby. Harbaugh has shown that he can't just win baby in Ann Arbor. We look like arrogant asses when we provide lame excuses for each of thee major losses. I, for one, am sick and tired of paying thousands of dollars each season to see us lose big game after big game and then have to read the postings and articles about how it was someone else's fault we lost. What could be more ridiculous than posting a picture of a field goal that may or may no have gotten off in time when the field goal is completely irrelevant to the final score?

[hack]

Most of those playmakers that Buchanan lists are playmakers in theory. DPJ in particular, according to the recruiting rankings he is a playmaker but he has yet to show it on the field. He's young, so that is to be expected but so far he has been a JAG at wideout.

TBH Peppers, once it was obvious every time how they were going to get him the ball, was a playmaker-in-theory on offense.

[drok]

Jeff...not sure how you can look at that game and come to the conclusion that the tackles weren't a major issue. Some stat floating around suggests 15 pressures and all sacks were attributed to the tackles. That's a shit ton. They are a major problem right now.

I had a weird viewing experience for this one. I had a wedding Saturday night and planned on recording the game and watching later that same night. However, there was a problem with the recording and I got super frustrated...finally deciding to just find out the score. After the initial shock I furiously read everything I could in rapid succession and went through all kinds of emotions, ready to fire everyone and give up watching Michigan football and CFB altogether...this was fueled by an open bar of course. By the morning I had calmed down and even decided to watch the game. Because I had got most of the emotions out of the way the previous night, I felt like I saw the game much more clearly than i would have otherwise.

I dont think there's any way around it...the tackles are terrible and limit the ceiling for this team. Not saying the rest of the line is great, but they seem serviceable at least. Even still, the passing game looked much more functional and Shea seemed like he will be fine, and maybe even quite good. Defense was a bit fluky but you can see what a major loss Hurst was. The DTs were mediocre and limited the effectiveness of Chase and Rashan.

All that said, if you squint hard enough, you can see the possibility of a pretty good team here. I'm just not sure why we have to squint at this point. The ability of the coaching staff to bring the tackles along on both sides of the ball will determine the outcome of this season. I dont have high hopes that one of the sides will get the job done.

[Jeff Buchanan]

......We look like arrogant asses when we provide lame excuses for each of thee major losses........

Stan, on the surface, you're absolutely right on all counts in that post and your comments are certainly consistent with the rest of the M fan's voices.

The problem is, though, that the game of football is complicated by a host of mitigating factors that contribute to a win or a loss in any particular game. Some of these you can control (don't give the refs a chance to call a penalty) some of them you can't (weather, crowd noise, playing on the road). I think the M coaching staff and teh players, are looking a little more deeply at the causes for the loss to ND than the hot takes of the fan base.

Regarding this loss, I don't think that I've made excuses. Players and coaches haven't made excuses. We have all talked about mitigating factors that affected the outcome in the ND game (defensive penalties, not the best OL play). I've also pointed out that the echo chamber of complaints about the OL play and that the 2018 version of Harbaughffense looks the same as it did in 2016/17 are hot takes that are not supported by video of the game that I looked at.

So, I'm only pissed off about those hot takes which I believe to be mostly wrong, have discussed those in detail and offered any poster to look at game video and prove that my evaluation of OL play (not as bad as it has been made out to be) and the offense in general (not the same as 2016/2017) is wrong.

[iam416]

All that said, if you squint hard enough, you can see the possibility of a pretty good team here. I'm just not sure why we have to squint at this point. The ability of the coaching staff to bring the tackles along on both sides of the ball will determine the outcome of this season. I dont have high hopes that one of the sides will get the job done.

I think the die is cast wrt Runyan and JBB. They aren't going to experience some sort of huge uptick during the season. They are going to be, more or less, what they have always been.

The real question is whether they go to the young pups and give them a shot. But even if they do, I wouldn't expect the quality of tackle play to bump up much. It's going to be something M has to gameplan around against a decent P5 team. They can probably get away with it for most games by utilizing a competent run blocking interior and credible backs. Plus, Patterson has some mobility and is a competent QB. But, against better defenses it's going to be an issue that is very difficult to work around.

I would be way more optimistic if, e.g., M had a track record of really bringing the OL around over the course of the season -- like, say, OSU in 2014 going from horrific (VT) to great.

[UMStan White]

Jeff; your prediction of the game:

August 13th, 2018, 10:09 AM

"Hmmmmmm ...... my revised prediction then is something like M 28, ND 17. I guess the hopium got me a bit there in my earlier prediction. I also think, on the road is very likely to make JH's play calling a bit conservative early on and Kellly will match that to avoid costly turnovers and the game getting out of hand one way or the other. I think WM's call about the offense not really clicking in the first live game to produce some frustration for overly expectant M fans. Win ugly or not and get out of town is probably the coaching staff's by-words. This isn't going to be a shoot out."

My prediction of the game:

August 14th, 2018, 08:48 AM

"Harbaugh has never beaten a ranked team on the road. He doesn't start here. ND wins easily and UM continues to tank as the year goes by."

Everybody predicted UM's defense was better than ND's defense and that would be the deciding factor in this game. Patterson was so much better than Wimbush. Even after this humiliating loss,UM fans want to rationalize the loss as some kind of "fluke" caused by penalties, broken plays, "good luck" by the Irish offense and the failure to implement an offense that plays to Patterson's strengths. (oh..wait.. wasn't Patterson the one who got sacked taking us out of field goal range early in the game and out of TD range in the third quarter and fumbled away the ball at the end of the game? Gee i thought I read somewhere that his scrambling talent was what set him apart from our other QBs.)

[Hannibal]

OSU's Tony Gerdeman should take over for Brian at mgoblog...

https://theozone.net/2018/09/michiga...y-worst-times/

[Jeff Buchanan]

Drok, I always enjoy your takes. What you say makes sense.

I think all of us that look critically and honestly at Michigan's football games know that because of the kind of offense Harbaugh wants to run, OL and by the extension of it,QB play, is crucial to the efficiency and scoring success of it.

The OL play, for the last two coaching staffs or about 6 years, has been sub-par and has greatly affected Michigan's record. We also know that developing good OL play is a long term project that demands a pipeline of good prospects and then decent development of those prospects. On both counts, Michigan has not done very well and it's pretty obvious that recruiting and development of the OL have been poor.

Fast forward to 2018. Drevno, notably not a great recruiter and certainly, if on-field performance is an indicator, not a very good developer of it, is gone but he did three years worth of damage, more if you include the impact on the out-years, that is not recoverable. Greg Frey, although he has a great resume, recruited a particular type of offensive line player that, it turns out, don't fit the needs of Harbuaghffense. He's gone but he did some damage too. In comes Warriner, great rep, he's had about 9 months to improve OL play with a group of offensive linemen not well suited for Harbaughffense, in particular, the OTs. Sure, all of this is on JH but it is what it is and the coaches now have to deal with it.

TBF, In the ND game, I have not contended that OT play was great or in your terms, "conclu(ding) that the tackles weren't a major issue." I think they were an issue and I found plays in my video review where they were responsible for pressure and sacks on Patterson. But you conclude based on "Some stat floating around suggests 15 pressures and all sacks were attributed to the tackles. That's a shit ton. They are a major problem right now." I don't agree with that.

I charted some 20 offensive plays and stopped there becasue I wasn't finding this terrible tackle play that everyone else seemed to be complaining about. I just watched, didn't chart, probably another 20 plays. Sure, ND dudes got past the OL in the interior and around the tackles and put pressure on Patterson. 15 pressures and all sacks attributed to the OTs? I didn't see those kinds of numbers from the offensive plays I looked at.

I'll look at the UFR at mgo but, as I've said already, I'm not sure Brian is an honest broker. I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if Brian's charting, unlike mine, shows 15 pressures and all sacks are the fault of the tackles. I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one - OL play was not nearly as bad as it was made out to be by the M fan base in the immediate depressed state following the ND game.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hanni, I agree with Gerdman's take. I've said as much earlier. The Hybrid Power football that characterizes Harbaughffense doesn't incorporate the long ball anywhere near enough. I'd like to see more of it. That it's not there is a legitimate criticism of M's offense and the coaching staff responsible for scheming the passing game.