U of M thread (in the Lions Forum) :)

[gjdodger]

A few of them have been spectacularly successful, though, like Bill Walsh. I think it goes in cycles; a college coach does well so they hire a bunch of college coaches; an OC does well so they hire a bunch of OCs. They're just imitators.

[froot loops]

Bill Walsh wasn't given huge cash to go to San Francisco.

I'm talking about why any NFL franchise would give that much money to any coach whether it is a college coach or a pro coach. The big names every year go some place in the NFL and generally the success rate of these hires isn't any better than hiring an unknown. In fact its probably worse, because I can name you numerous big money flops and have to stretch the definition for successes. If you look at Super Bowl winning coaches, very few were big name, big cash hires at the time.

It makes a lot more sense at the college level, the megabucks coach has a lot more influence on how successful a team can be. To Michigan he is worth 7 million a year, I'm not sure he is worth that at any NFL job.

[Mainevent]

A few of them have been spectacularly successful, though, like Bill Walsh.

Has there been one in the last 30 years? Dennis Erickson's been about the most successful, and that's not saying much. Saban - flop, Petrino - flop, Spurrier - flop. The NFL's a hell of a lot different than than it was in the 1970s.

[gjdodger]

Oh. Well, if we want to speculate, I'm sure part of it is buzz. You bring in a big name coach and pay him whole lotsa monay, it generates a lot of interest in your team, maybe spurs ticket sales and gets you national coverage, sell a few more jerseys and caps and other paraphernalia. Also, it sounds like a lot of money but you've got 58 ballplayers plus injured guys, a dozen assistant coaches, a training staff, your office...a whole bunch of people on your payroll. Does it make a lot of difference to your bottom line whether you're paying your coach two million or four million or six million? What is each team's take just from the TV contract? So it's a relatively modest investment that generates a lot of publicity. Whether the coach is successful, well, that would be nice, but like I said I think a lot of them just do what some other guy has done to be successful, and maybe it works and maybe it doesn't. Bill Ford, or his dad, anyway, made his money selling cars, not running a football team.

[gjdodger]

Has there been one in the last 30 years? Dennis Erickson's been about the most successful, and that's not saying much. Saban - flop, Petrino - flop, Spurrier - flop. The NFL's a hell of a lot different than than it was in the 1970s.

The two guys at Dallas, but they ran afoul of Jerry's ego. They won three SBs, I think.

[Mainevent]

I wouldn't give Switzer any credit for anything with Dallas. JJ is true, but again, he built his core team before FA and ridiculous salaries.

[Rocky Bleier]

I recall Marvin Lewis being everyone's can't miss coach after the Ravens won their Super Bowl. John Gruden was huge in Oakland for awhile. John Fox was the man in Carolina. Things change.

[froot loops]

I guess the buzz part is there, I think it may be overestimated by any owner.

I do think there is a difference though in the bottom line, the coaches contract is guaranteed. While you may think that buzz alone will boost a bottom line, thats on the front end. If you have a disaster big name coach on your hands, its very hard to cut the cord early when you have a 3 years left and 20 million to pay.

Switzer was a name, but he wasn't a big cash hire.

Jimmy Johnson was a big hire, but he also wasn't a big cash grab when he went to Dallas. He went to Dallas because he wanted a shot at the pros and his old college teammate was the new owner.


When Johnson went to the Dolphins, he was a big name, big cash hire and it never really worked out for him. In fact with Johnson, Wannedstadt, Saban and Parcells they've kind of continued to go down the big name, big buzz path and they have been middling franchise since Shula retired. I think its kind of a lazy way to go about running the franchise.

[gjdodger]

I'm not arguing it worked. Just speculating on the reasons for it. Feel free to castigate the Dolphins' front office. Why do people keep hiring Wannstadt, anyway?

[froot loops]

I recall Marvin Lewis being everyone's can't miss coach after the Ravens won their Super Bowl. John Gruden was huge in Oakland for awhile. John Fox was the man in Carolina. Things change.

Fox was just a coordinator on a successful team. He followed the general path an NFL coach takes, he certainly wasn't a huge megbucks hire.

Marvin Lewis took awhile to get a job, he wasn't hired as a head coach for two seasons after the Ravens won a Super Bowl. Everyone's can't miss coach nearly took the State job because he couldn't get a pro job. The Bengals decided on him late. They didn't pay him a lot of money and he really hasn't done much in Cincy. I don't think he qualifies for what I'm saying.

Gruden is one guy that does qualify. But he did walk into a tailor made situation. Tampa Bay was in the verge and had a trigger finger with Dungy. When you go to an NFL job you are almost always walking into very bad situation. The Gruden hire in my mind is an outlier.

[gjdodger]

You're talking about a team paying a coach a lot of money to be a miracle worker. I seem to recall a guy named "Mariucci."

[Rocky Bleier]

Froot:

My only point is that today's savior can be tomorrow's goat. The "Hot name" guys usually get fired eventually. I think Harbaugh would be better off going to Michigan for job security, but he may be after money or the challenge of the NFL.

[froot loops]

Yeah, Mooch was one of those guys. It would probably be fun to come up with a list of all the big name, big cash hires of the last 30 years and figure out the combined record. Shanahan was the latest one.

Bill Cowher is a future one. He was great in Pittsburgh, lets see how he is when he eventually coaches Carolina.

Mike Holmgren definitely qualifies as a successful hire by the Seahawks.

[gjdodger]

Asshole. Emphasis mine.

ESPN analyst Herbstreit: Harbaugh to Michigan is 'wishful thinking'

Angelique S. Chengelis / The Detroit News

ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit admits now that maybe it's been "wishful thinking" on his part that Jim Harbaugh will return home to coach Michigan.
Even Herbstreit, who has publicly touted Harbaugh, currently the Stanford head coach who is being strongly courted by NFL teams, as a great fit for Michigan, now thinks that marriage might not materialize.
Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon fired Rich Rodriguez on Wednesday after three seasons and a 15-22 record, and said he is launching a national coaching search.
Harbaugh, a former Michigan quarterback, was thought to be the front-runner for the Michigan vacancy, but recent reports suggest he will end up with and NFL team.
"I think Jim Harbaugh is great for college football," Herbstreit said Thursday during an ESPN teleconference. "I think his energy, his passion, his competitive spirit, the same spirit he had as a player, he has a head coach. (But) all these stories and now the Dolphins flying there and potentially offering him to be the highest paid NFL coach, maybe all these things are too much for him to consider going to Michigan.
"I think he fits in perfectly in college. More than competing to win games, he's affecting 18- to 22-year-old young men in a positive way. I think he's a great guy. I think he has an edge to him that's fun and I think it would bring a lot of spirit to the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry. So I'm holding out hope that somehow someway he'll want to come back to Ann Arbor, but it does seem like more and more as time passes he'll be headed to the NFL."
Meanwhile, while Brandon said the next coach does not have to have Michigan ties, two candidates with Michigan ties have emerged as potentially serious candidates.
LSU coach Les Miles is a former Michigan player and assistant coach and currently is preparing the Tigers for Friday's Cotton Bowl. San Diego State coach Brady Hoke, a former Michigan assistant, has made it perfectly clear to his current employer that Michigan is his dream job.
"If it's not (Harbaugh), I know (former Michigan receiver and current ESPN analyst) Desmond (Howard) was on air (Wednesday) saying not necessarily does it have to be a Michigan Man," Herbstreit said. "They need the best coach available out there. I really wonder … about Brady Hoke and whether or not his experience being on the staff in Ann Arbor and with the success he had at Ball State and what he's done now at San Diego State, if he wouldn't be a hot commodity, and not just because of what he's done at Ball State and San Diego State. I think his ties obviously to the university will have a lot to do with him being the lead candidate.
"I don't know, I don't really have any inside information. I'm just sitting back and watching this unfold." As far as Rodriguez's three seasons, Herbstreit said it's tough to think of it as anything but a difficult spell for a winningest program in college football.
"I think it will be a three-year era that we will all look back and think about it being three of the toughest years in Michigan football history," Herbstreit said.
Herbstreit suggested that maybe it was never a good fit for either party.
"When Rich left to go to Michigan, he was the hottest commodity that was out there," Herbstreit said of Rodriguez in 2007 when he was hired in mid-December by Michigan. "Alabama the year before tried to get him. Anybody who was lucky enough to get Rich Rod to go to their school, he was guy, and I think a lot of people forget that.
"He did not forget how to coach in three years. I think the team he inherited was difficult to be able to compete, but I think now after three years, and not being able to improve enough defensively especially. …and then I'm wondering whether or not Rich fit in as an outsider coming in to the Michigan family, did they ever accept him?
"If he would have won games, yes, they would have. When he did not win and being an outsider, I think it became very easy for people to turn on him and made his job that much tougher as far as recruiting and having a positive spin on the program. And at the same time, I think Rich Rodriguez will eventually, after probably taking a year off, will land on his feet, he'll find a job that will fit him better personally, and I think he'll be very successful as a head coach."

Herbstreit, Nov. 24:

"There's been rumors up in here, up in the north that on Monday (Michigan) might make a move, and release Rich Rodriguez. If that happens, within 24 hours Jim Harbaugh will be announced as Michigan coach."

[froot loops]

Froot:

My only point is that today's savior can be tomorrow's goat. The "Hot name" guys usually get fired eventually. I think Harbaugh would be better off going to Michigan for job security, but he may be after money or the challenge of the NFL.

I probably agree 100 percent with this statement. I'm looking at it from the NFL franchise view, why are these teams so enamored with the hot name guy that they would pay 7 million a year when the success rate is not good.

Harbaugh is a unique case, he is the perfect fit for Michigan, while college coaches shouldn't be making the money they are, he is the exception. But he's the exception only at Michigan.

Even if you are a great coach, you are limited in your chances at a pro job. He can do everything in his power to win but if the franchise is weak and doesn't have strong organizational types, then he won't succeed.