U of M thread (in the Lions Forum) :)

[Da Geezer]

As long as Notre Dame is able to make money they don't have to share with anyone, they aren't going to be terribly compelled to join a conference (at least as a full operating member).

I believe ND is bound to join the ACC until 2036 IF they join a conference.

[Whitley]

I believe ND is bound to join the ACC until 2036 IF they join a conference.

Notre Dame writes a check. That is what Texas, Oklahoma, Maryland, Rutgers and what all the others have done.

[chemiclord]

Yeah I don’t know chemi. Things are changing in the college ranks. I think they dammed near have to at the moment.

I still can’t believe the Big Ten nabbed USC and UCLA. They have such a different makeup to the rest of the conference. I have a feeling when USC starts mounting recruits they’ll be tough to stop

Michigan better get on the NIL train or they’re going to be left so far in the dust.

Why? They get $15 mil a year from NBC that they don't have to share with anyone until 2025. I know that doesn't seem like all that much until you understand it's $15 mil without a need for their own network and all the costs that come with it like what Big Ten teams have to do. They're just getting that money for effectively nothing.

You're not going to see ANY movement from South Bend until then at the soonest.

[Whitley]

Why? They get $15 mil a year from NBC that they don't have to share with anyone until 2025. I know that doesn't seem like all that much until you understand it's $15 mil without a need for their own network and all the costs that come with it like what Big Ten teams have to do. They're just getting that money for effectively nothing.

You're not going to see ANY movement from South Bend until then at the soonest.

Last year big ten members got between 44-48 million in a pandemic year

[chemiclord]

Last year big ten members got between 44-48 million in a pandemic year

Yes, and again... that 44-48 million also incurs costs of maintaining their own network that Notre Dame doesn't have to worry about, and that doesn't include whatever they are getting from their partial cut in the ACC, and all their other deals. Forbes puts Notre Dame routinely in the Top 10 most valuable programs. They aren't hurting, and right now they (probably correctly) feel that college football as a whole needs them more than the other way around.

They aren't going to feel compelled to commit their football team to a conference until that changes. No matter how much people like you continue to insist Notre Dame needs the Big Ten, they don't. USC and UCLA going to the Big Ten might change the calculus eventually, especially if B1G starts freezing the Fighting Irish out of all the rivalry games they enjoyed. Then again, that sort of hardball might just get Notre Dame to make a call to Birmingham, Alabama.

Don't think they do it? Don't forget why Notre Dame signed on with the ACC part time in the first place; because the Big Ten tried to strong arm them, Notre Dame told them to eat shit and pound sand, then took the deal where their football team remained independent.

[edindetroit]

Pac-12, ACC had chance to save themselves. Instead, it was an all-time botch job.

The future of not just the playoff, but of the Pac-12 itself, is up in the air. A league whose roots stretch proudly back to 1913 could be out of business by 2024. In the hours after USC and UCLA left, sources across college athletics said all 10 of the remaining Pac-12 schools inquired about leaving as well, mostly to the Big Ten or Big 12. Everyone is trying to jump ship.

https://sports.yahoo.com/pac-12-acc-...142405174.html

[jaadam4]

I wonder if they’re going to rebrand back to PAC 10 again

[chemiclord]

Someone posed the idea of the Pac-12, Big-12, and ACC all doing a sort of cross country merger with a western, central, and eastern divisions. I'm not at all sure how that would work logistically, but I suppose it would be theoretically plausible and give those schools a little bit of bargaining strength.

I suspect it's going to be more "every school for themselves" sort of deal, though. It's a little late in the game for all those schools to band together when they can just negotiate with either the Big 10 or SEC if they wanted to.

That said, Notre Dame remains the wild card here. For whatever reason, be it old grudges or just being contrary, they do not have any desire to join the Big Ten, and dreams of them crawling on their hands and knees begging to join are just that. Dreams. We had this same fight a decade ago when the Big East got ripped apart. The overwhelming majority of the forum were sure the Fighting Irish had no choice if they wanted to stay relevant to join the Big Ten. I was on a pretty small island saying that arrogance from the Big Ten was the wrong move... and look who turned out right.

The same is true this time. Someone is going to give the Fighting Irish everything they want; whether that is the SEC or this theoretical alliance, or hypothetically the Big Ten... if they could get their heads out of their own asses and accept they aren't going to be able to bully Notre Dame to do shit. If the B1G wants Notre Dame that badly, they know what they need to do.

[jaadam4]

The B1G and ND are a match made in Ann Arbor. Make it happen

[chemiclord]

The B1G and ND are a match made in Ann Arbor. Make it happen

Notre Dame, to this point, does not agree.

We'll see if adding USC and UCLA alter that opinion any, but I am extremely doubtful. For whatever reason, the temperature in South Bend in regards to joining the Big Ten remains as icy as ever.

The Big Ten would have to give Notre Dame everything they want (the big one being that their football program remains independent and all the deals that come from that independence not having to be shared). Maybe the Big Ten can accept that, and try and use soft influence to convince the Fighting Irish over time that they'd get more money being full members?

Would B1G schools accept that? I doubt it, but anything less than that is going to get an answer of "no deal" from South Bend.

[Whitley]

Well Notre Dame would be getting more money since the payments to schools from BTN are 3x the amount ND gets now (and will only grow). And before someone says the universities pay in, those numbers are the profit each team gets.

[chemiclord]

Well Notre Dame would be getting more money since the payments to schools from BTN are 3x the amount ND gets now (and will only grow). And before someone says the universities pay in, those numbers are the profit each team gets.

That is the cut they get from the revenue sharing of the B1G Ten Network, which is only part of their revenue and doesn't list any of the costs of maintaining said network. Don't get me wrong, Notre Dame would still get more money by joining the Big Ten. That's not in dispute really. But they seem to like their ability to negotiate their own deals, and not have to share any of those revenues, more.

The B1G is going to need a more compelling reason to join.

[chemiclord]

What I'll be interested in seeing is this new broadcast deal that the B1G is able to get. Current estimates are around $1 billion, but that was before USC and UCLA joined the package. We might get a clue at what Notre Dame is going to do once the rumors starts giving new numbers, even if Notre Dame doesn't make an official announcement right away.

[Whitley]

Yeah, I have to think that adding the LA market is a pretty huge add. Then you have UCLA and USC which are national name brands with large followings. You could have all day marquee matchups.

How much do you think USC and UCLA added to the PAC 10 on the rights side?

[chemiclord]

Hard to say. On one hand, LA is the nation's second biggest market by population.

On the other, LA seems largely uninterested in sports as a general rule. Even the Lakers only move the needle occasionally, and only when they are champion contenders. The Dodgers most recent run has for the most part generated yawns, and as much as Froot and I joked about LA being all in on the Rams, a lot of home games had the feel of road games. A lot of the time it seems networks get pulled in by the potential of the LA market rather than the reality.