The Offseason Thread

[El Axe]

I did not understand the reason why the Lions would even want to trade for Kupp to begin with, and I still don't get it.

The Lions already have a guy who is better at everything Kupp does right now in St. Brown (and is considerably younger), and Raymond is more than acceptable depth for that type of receiver. The Lions would be better served keeping whatever pick they'd waste in a trade for a redundant and lesser WR, and simply re-signed Tim Patrick (who actually serves a need for the offense) for less scratch than what Kupp's contract would be.

Someone asked that on reddit, here was B077's response

Good question! That one requires a little bit of a breakdown into route roles. Most people do assume you just need a different body type for each role, but rather the concepts actually dictate the type of role that you have rather than the body type. Which is to say that what we see a lot of in Sean Payton's passing concepts, which we can safely use as a good projection for the degree of change between Johnson and Morton, it actually relies on a lot of intermediate stuff when paired with play-action, and thus you actually almost use two Amon-Ra type route runners on it, with Jamo dragging the safeties deep.

It is helpful to have different body types, yes. But it's actually not as resolute as some want to make it, and the way we've seen Kupp also bounce around different roles in the Rams WR room, as Nacua, for example, stepped up and took over major pieces of things he had been doing, it's pretty easy to see the versatility you get there.

Kupp, St. Brown, and Jamo would be lethal given how we've seen Detroit lean into the play-action and intermediate precision combos in the passing game.

[El Axe]

He’s trading for Kupp and then also using the pick in his mock draft.

I’d rather use that 3rd round pick to just grab a WR (or TE as Froot suggested).

Yep, it was a mistake that B077 admitted

Again, something to keep in mind is that B077 puts together several different directions Holmes could go. He will later come up with his prediction piece.

[Mainevent]

I don’t see a problem fitting in Kupp to the offense. I’d just rather invest in a young player with a draft pick. I was open to making a run at Keenan Allen in FA, but it sounds like it’s either Chicago or LA for him (if he plays at all).

Most likely I would expect Patrick to be brought back, give Antoine Green another shot (if he can prove he’s healthy) and look at adding a youngster in the draft.

[chemiclord]

It's less "body type" and more they both work the same area of the field. Sure, you CAN use Kupp as a vertical deep and sideline threat, but you're then taking him away from what he does best, working the middle intermediate part of the field.

Worst case scenario, defenses don't respect the edges, and flood the middle of the field with defenders. Best case scenario, you have a redundant receiver making a ton of scratch filling a role that can be done better for cheaper.

[wcfwtf]

I don’t believe in bringing in an aging player to an area that is not in need unless its offensive line.
Defense needs more help

[Mainevent]

Bringing an aging player in may be ok, but trading a mid-round pick and then paying them significant dollars based on reputation is not a good plan.

[El Axe]

I don’t see a problem fitting in Kupp to the offense. I’d just rather invest in a young player with a draft pick. I was open to making a run at Keenan Allen in FA, but it sounds like it’s either Chicago or LA for him (if he plays at all).

Most likely I would expect Patrick to be brought back, give Antoine Green another shot (if he can prove he’s healthy) and look at adding a youngster in the draft.

I'm with you. I really liked Patrick this year. He has a great catch radius and seemed like a plus blocker from what I saw.

[Dan V]

Patrick was a better version of Josh Reynolds, whom I liked a lot.
Kupp is a white Debo Samuel , his best years are behind him and he doesn’t deserve big money.

[Mainevent]

POD got into my favorite hobby horse on their podcast this week, Froot - Holmes’ flights of fancy the last couple of years in the middle rounds - plus/minus/strategy/reason. Good discussion.

Most interesting bit to me though was that they think Lions really expected Martin to be a rotation player ready to contribute this past year and that clearly wasn’t the case. And because he looked so not ready they said he just might be a miss. I thought that was notable because they are usually pretty good about preaching patience with these developmental players.

(They did note he’s going on his 3rd DL coach in three years).

[Mainevent]

Patrick was a better version of Josh Reynolds, whom I liked a lot.
Kupp is a white Debo Samuel , his best years are behind him and he doesn’t deserve big money.

Don’t know if Patrick was better but they were kind of playing different roles - Reynolds was forced into being a defacto #2 role because Jamo wasn’t producing. This year Jamo was the clear #2 and Patrick got to settle in as the #3 and work within some of the space than Jamo created.

[froot loops]

POD got into my favorite hobby horse on their podcast this week, Froot - Holmes’ flights of fancy the last couple of years in the middle rounds - plus/minus/strategy/reason. Good discussion.

Most interesting bit to me though was that they think Lions really expected Martin to be a rotation player ready to contribute this past year and that clearly wasn’t the case. And because he looked so not ready they said he just might be a miss. I thought that was notable because they are usually pretty good about preaching patience with these developmental players.

(They did note he’s going on his 3rd DL coach in three years).

Martin definitely wasn't impressive at the end of the year. He could be a miss, his injury at the start of the season could also be a mitigating factor. I was less enthused about this pick, his biggest attribute is size. I'm less concerned about guys like Sorsdal and Manu. Manu is an athletic freak who should have a high ceiling. Sorsdal was beat out by Skipper who they also developed. The good thing about this year on the offensive line is they were pretty healthy and they really didn't miss a beat with starts by Mahogany and Skipper.

[ghandi]

What I remember about the Martin pick was Brad had waited on taking a DT and it was kinda the last thing on his checklist.....It felt like he just went for the biggest guy he could find, traded 3 fifths, and called it good....Hopefully he doesnt do that again.....Puka Nacua was taken at the end of that 5th round (not that the Lions draft him but we will never know).

[El Axe]

What I remember about the Martin pick was Brad had waited on taking a DT and it was kinda the last thing on his checklist.....It felt like he just went for the biggest guy he could find, traded 3 fifths, and called it good....Hopefully he doesnt do that again.....Puka Nacua was taken at the end of that 5th round (not that the Lions draft him but we will never know).

My take was that Holmes wanted a DT/0 tech in the draft and saw that he could target Martin for later, so put off picking one up because he knew he could get Martin later. I really wanted Benton, for instance (more than happy that we instead got Branch of course).

I agree with others that he looks like the biggest miss of Holmes' career thus far. Like you said, he was drafted partly because he's an "earth" player -- as in, there are only so many human beings that large on the earth.

[zbeaster]

What are we thinking it takes to keep Davis? 4 years in the 50M range?

Probably around this I think

[Mainevent]

Davis last contract was 3/45. So i highly doubt you’re getting him at 4/50. Maybe 3/50 might be more realistic. All the guys above him on the pay scale are at $18M a year average or more.