The Offseason Thread

[Mainevent]

Yeah, the lesson to learn from Philly is to just keep hitting the DL in the draft. They rode the Brandon Graham/Fletcher Cox group for a long time, but when they started to fade, they restocked with 9 DL draft picks in the last 4 drafts, with 5 of those in the first 3 rounds of the draft.

Holmes hasn't been a slouch in that area - doubling up with Levi/Alim and Hutch/Paschal in the first two drafts, and the Martin & Wingo recently. Just need to keep after it.

[Mainevent]

Also, on Jack Sawyer - he's definitely a guy that fits the relentless/edge setter/football character profile as well as the need the Lions have. Right now he's mostly projected as late first to mid-second pick generally, but it's early. Could easily be a guy that teams fall in love with during the process.

[froot loops]

The thing to looked for with Za'Darius Smith is March 15th. He gets a 2 million dollar bonus on the third day of the league year (league starts March 12th). He also has a 6.9 million dollar bonus due a week before the regular season starts, which would go into the 2026 season. POD has him as the likeliest candidate to be cut. I would look for them to redo that contract if they wanted to keep him.

[Mainevent]

And here's why this is a good draft for the Lions to have a need at DE/Edge - a (probably incomplete) list of DE/Edge players that are getting mentioned as 1st/2nd round prospects. Deep, deep class and a lot of length/size. I'm sure some of these sizes will true-up a bit as official measurements come in (Shemar Stewart officially measured 6'5" 281 at the Senior Bowl, for example). But it's still a lot of big dudes. And that's not even considering the DTs.

Abdul Carter	6'3	252
James Pearce Jr.	6'5	243
Mykel Williams	6'5	265
Shemar Stewart	6'6	290
Nic Scourton	6'4	285
Mike Green	6'4	248
Princely Umanmielen	6'4	255
Landon Jackson	6'7	280
Jalon Walker	6'2	245
Jack Sawyer	6'5	260
JT Tuimoloau	6'5	269
Donovan Ezeiruaku	6'2	247
Kyle Kennard	6'5	254
Jared Ivey	6'6	285
Jordan Burch	6'6	290

[BJK]

[edindetroit]

If we truly are 1 player away...get Garrett or Crosby. But are we really 1 player away?

No, keep Za Darius Smith to compliment Hutchinson and get the rest in the draft. I don't see any need to mortgage the future.

[edindetroit]

The thing to looked for with Za'Darius Smith is March 15th. He gets a 2 million dollar bonus on the third day of the league year (league starts March 12th). He also has a 6.9 million dollar bonus due a week before the regular season starts, which would go into the 2026 season. POD has him as the likeliest candidate to be cut. I would look for them to redo that contract if they wanted to keep him.

Both amount to chump change in the NFL.

[chemiclord]

9 mil for one year is a fair amount of scratch.

[froot loops]

It wouldn't just be 9 million. His base is 1.5 million and the escalator clauses which could be 510,000. So the 500k and 7 million would account in the 2026 season where he isn't under contract

I'm just saying it is something to look for in the next month. I don't have an opinion on it either way, but if they were to get off his contract we will know pretty fast

[El Axe]

B077 from Reddit's 2nd installment: "Aggression"

==================================================

Extensions & Internal Free Agency


For this one, I am going to go ahead and plug in the extension for Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson that Lionswire's Jeff Risen is projecting, north of $34 million per year for this one.

I am also going to include the deal for S Kerby Joseph I did last time, but hold off still on an extension for WR Jameson Williams, as I'll make that a focal piece of the 3rd Mock offseason section here.

The other main moves we are making is doing a renegotiated deal with current LG Graham Glasgow who had a relatively mediocre season, and is currently at a spot where he would likely be cut if he is unwilling to take a paycut. Renegotiated deals are somewhat of a wildcard in terms of what they land on, but effectively I am going to move his cap hit down to $3.8 mil, which lowers his salary to the veteran minimum, but forwards his two roster bonuses for 2025 and 2026 into this season, and then includes the already prorated portions. This also voids the third year of his deal, meaning Glasgow effectively gets the remainder of his guaranteed money up front but now need to anything beyond this season. If he bounces back and wants to return in 2026, he'd now have the freedom himself to negotiate a new deal.

I am also keeping RG Kevin Zeitler around in this one, rather than having him retiring. Instead he opts to come back one more season and compete for a championship, signing a one-year extension at a similar rate. We are also keeping EDGE Za'Darius Smith around in this one, though I maintain he'll likely be cut, as his cap hit is probably about on the line, but more importantly to the discussion is that the Lions still financially owe him over $10 million in cold hard cash (cap hit vs. cash paid out works different so the trade doesn't actually affect that, just what the Lions are responsible for on their salary cap balance with league reporting), and thus it makes him an easier choice. However, I cut him last time, so this one we will keep him.

The restructures I am doing in this one is sort of an all-out approach, so anyone who can save the Lions at least $5 million or more is getting restructured. That includes:

• DT D.J. Reader
• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
• QB Jared Goff
• OT Taylor Decker

I've explained this one previously, but the gist of the restructure is you really shouldn't do a restructure unless you know that the player in question is going to be around in 2026, which is definitively true for Goff and St. Brown, but the contract set ups for Reader and Decker make restructures actually plausible despite the doubt they're on their actual longevity on the Lions roster.

The two big changes from last time is aiming to keep Derrick Barnes and Levi Onwuzurike. I still don't think it's likely Barnes is back, unless the Lions potentially consider moving on from Anzalone, but there is enough space that they can reasonably find a way to integrate him into the lineup very regularly with Anzalone and Campbell, and then move forward with Campbell and Barnes as the starting linebackers in 2026. Onwuzurike is back as well, and given some injuries along the DL, it's helpful to have him there and ready to go at the start of the year.

ILB	Derrick Barnes	3	$18 million
DT	Levi Onwuzurike	2	$22 million
G	Kevin Zeitler	1	$5.9 million
OT	Dan Skipper	1	$1.2 million
ILB	Ben Niemann	1	$1.2 million
RB	Craig Reynolds	1	$3.2 million
G	Kayode Awosika	1	$3.2 million
TE	Shane Zylstra	1	$3.2 million
EDGE	Al-Quadin Muhammad	1	$1.2 million

The other ones on here of note are using OverTheCap's projections for the restricted free agent tenders on RB Craig Reynolds, G Kayode Awosika, and TE Shane Zylstra. The RFA tender is simply a right of first refusal deal as none of those three were drafted out of college, and thus the Lions would only be agreeing to that deal and then needing to wait and see if anyone offers them more, and then match, much like they did with Brock Wright. I think Awosika is definitely worth the price of the tender, as he's been a serviceable reserve for Detroit the past few seasons and accumulated a couple of starts. Reynolds is not worth the $3.2 million as a third-option running back, but when factoring in that he's also third on the Lions roster in special teams usage, it then becomes a solid deal.

Splashy Trade? Splashy Trade!

We are going to add a bigger-ish trade into this one, as we'll have the Lions leaning into a little more aggressive roster building as they seek to land their first Super Bowl in the coming season. Most would anticipate that is Browns EDGE rusher Myles Garrett, but no, instead we have Brad Holmes adding a former player he overlapped with in Los Angeles, as the Lions spring a trade for Rams WR Cooper Kupp, a 31-year old wide receiver who is still playing some very good football, even if he is starting to slow down.

NFL insider extraordinaire mentioned that the rough idea on valuation here would be something similar to the Bears acquisition of WR Keenan Allen last year, leaving us with this similarly projected trade.

Lions send: Third-round compensatory selection (projected 3.101)
Rams send: WR Cooper Kupp, sixth-round selection (6.204 via HOU)

The Bears landed Allen for an outright fourth-round pick last season, but that pick was 4.110, which means the Lions dealing their very late third-round pick and getting a late-round pick back is probably going to be a slightly more accurate valuation than sending their current fourth, which is projected at 4.133, via Philadelphia. So that's what we're going with.

The salary cap hit for Kupp varies based on when this trade actually happens, as the Rams would be on the hook for an additional $7.5 million in roster bonus to be paid out on March 5th, I believe. If the trade happens before that, the team acquiring Kupp would be on the hook for that bonus, plus his $12.5 million in base salary, but if it occurs after that date, it would be just the base salary. I do not imagine the Rams will be able to facilitate a trade all that easily before that date unless they drastically lowered the asking price, as a $20 million cap hit for a 31-year old wide receiver moving out of his prime is a very tough ask for any sensible team to take on.

Thus, I will be using Kupp's base salary alone here and going with LAR eating that roster bonus to ensure they get top value for their former star wideout. Thus Detroit takes on $12.5 million this season, with a projected $19.5 million in cap duties next year, but that is a problem for next year when they could opt to cut or restructure Kupp and solve that problem later.

Some might be tempted to say the Lions don't need to "waste resources" on an offensive player, though I would still suggest that leaning into the idea of building upon existing strength is always still a good idea, and so yes, the Lions offense will still be quite good without Kupp, but adding him in is a near perfect compliment to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and likely helps Detroit continue to produce at an elite rate offensively. Which is short to say, still leaving Brad Holmes with something like $35 million cap space and a first- and second-round pick is still plenty to be able to bolster the defense, and thus the Lions should feel free to pursue a number of different strategies here.

Financial Health

With the extensions and moves above factored in, the Lions would be heading into this external free agency cycle now with $62 million in outright cap space. However, as I have mentioned previously, some of this would not be money the Lions intend to use this cycle, as rolling money forward into the next financial cycle is a very good strategy so long as the cap continues to rise. The quick logic on that one is that $5 million this year is more valuable than $5 million next, as $5 million this year is a higher percentage of the cap than it will be in 2026 when the cap increases. Thus, some of those restructures make sense in the context of pushing some dead cap into a lesser Given that Detroit is projected now to be almost -$50 million in the hole in 2026, the Lions would aim to probably preserve a pretty clean $25-30 million or so to rollover.

And for those concerned about that number, there is minimal need to fret. There's a lot of flexibility for the Lions to easily get back into the positives there, as the added Cooper Kupp contract is very cuttable, saving $19.85 million if he's not playing at a level that meets that price tag (very plausible). Levi Onwuzurike's deal is also in that same vein, able to cut and save $8 million if he's not playing up to the expectations of the deal he gets here.

Penei Sewell and Alim McNeill can be theoretically restructured in 2026 to save a combined $35+ million between the two of them. So doing a quick little adjustment right there of restructuring them, and cutting or renegotiating a deal with Cooper Kupp brings the Lions right back to zero. They still need to find some additional wiggle room, but many contenders recently have shown that once you're at that point, bolstering the roster with cheap, veteran ring chasers tends to allow them to continue loading the roster, especially while Brad Holmes is continuing to add talent via the Draft.

This is admittedly unfamiliar territory with the Lions, but with a strong core of Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeill, Jared Goff, and Kerby Joseph all locked in, and again, drafted players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell and thirty other people you'll say "don't forget about him!", plus the picks Holmes is able to make. The Lions are in very good shape.

External Free Agency

Heading into the external period here, the Lions main task should probably be to find a starting caliber cornerback to pair with second-year Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson, as well as a third safety to replace Ifeatu Melifonwu here, and then patch up a few other areas and ensure the team is deeper and ready to make a deep playoff run this next season.

For the cornerback role, I am going to use a potential cap casualty here, having Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey land in Detroit, as injuries have slowed Humphrey's early rise in his career. At 29-years old, he's likely got the capacity to give the Lions at least two solid years if he can stay healthy, but this one certainly could pay off in a big way for Detroit given his ability he's already demonstrated, as he also graded out at a very high rate for man coverage his past few seasons for the Ravens. Should Baltimore move on, the Lions should pounce.

The only other splashier signing here is Chargers breakout safety Elijah Molden, a versatile split-safety who is used to working in as a heavy rotational guy after this past season. He can play deep and also come up against the run, and has shown the ability to even travel down into the slot and cover at times. He broke his fibula at the end of the regular season, but is expected to be ready to go by the start of team camp. The injury probably causes any team signing him to go with a one-year deal to evaluate before committing long-term.

I also have new Lions DL coach Kacy Rogers bringing along former first-round pick EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinaka, a solid rotational edge rusher with good size (6-5, 260 pounds), power, and 15 sacks over the past four seasons. He's not a high end starter guaranteed to lock in a job long term, but he can be a really strong add for Detroit in the next few seasons.

And similar to adding Jedrick Wills last one, I am adding Titans OT/G Dillon Radunz as a very promising and intriguing flier to take on the OL. Radunz has started games at tackle and guard, and looked his best at RG. I would love the idea of bringing in Radunz and seeing about developing him as a 2026 successor to Kevin Zeitler, while Mahogany settles in and competes with Glasgow at left guard this year.

CB	Marlon Humphrey	BAL	2	$32 million
S	Elijah Molden	LAC	1	$6.5 million
OL	Dillon Radunz	TEN	1	$4.0 million
EDGE	Joe Tryon-Shaka	TB	2	$10 million
WR	Parris Campbell	PHI	1	$1.2 million
DB	Elijah Campbell	CAR	1	$1.2 million
iOL	Brenden Jaimes	LAC	1	$1.1 million
DT	Neville Gallimore	LAR	1	$1.2 million
CB	Tre Brown	SEA	1	$1.2 million

The other additions here are largely depth fillers, as the Lions roster is quite nice! Parris Campbell is a former Ohio State speedster who has had a few seasons as a solid WR4/5, and could be a nice addition to the back end of the rotation.

NFL Draft

For the Lions first round selection, I have them swiping Shemar Stewart, whom I would peg pretty early as a really clean fit for the Lions, much in the same way I mentioned both Jared Verse and Terrion Arnold last year. Stewart has actually been on a bit of a stock rising trend lately, and at this point I am unsure he'd be available at 1.28, but stranger things have happened. Stewart is a long, powerful edge player, 6-6, 285 pounds and immensely athletic. Similar to Darius Robinson last year in terms of the body type, but Stewart is more explosive and a lot more upside in my opinion. His overall production has not been the best throughout his college career, but the Lions can work him into a rotation with Za'Darius Smith and others as he develops. Sky high upside, but not the highest floor.

And bolstering the DL with a second selection here, as the Detroit native Deone Walker lands with the Lions as a massive, athletic interior disruptor.

Round 1, Pick #28	EDGE	Shemar Stewart	Texas A&M
Round 2, Pick #60	DT	Deone Walker	Kentucky
Round 3, Pick #101 (compensatory)	CB	Nohl Williams	California
Round 4, Pick #132	G	Miles Frazier	LSU
Round 6, Pick #198	WR	Pat Bryant	Illinois
Round 7, Pick #227	S	R.J. Mickens	Clemson
Round 7, Pick #230	RB	Montrell Johnson Jr.	Florida
Round 7, Pick #246	DT	Eric Gregory	Arkansas

[El Axe]

Head Coach: Dan Campbell, fifth season in Detroit (41-30 record, 2 NFC North titles)

Offensive Coordinator: John Morton, second season in Detroit, first in current role

QB	Jared Goff	Hendon Hooker	Jake Fromm
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs & David Mongtomery	Craig Reynolds	Sione Vaki & Montrell Johnson Jr.
WR	Jameson Williams	Parris Campbell	Ronnie Bell
WR	Cooper Kupp	Pat Bryant	Antoine Green
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	Kalif Raymond	Tom Kennedy
TE	Sam LaPorta	Brock Wright	Shane Zylstra
LT	Taylor Decker	Dan Skipper	Giovanni Manu
LG	Graham Glasgow	Kayode Awosika	Miles Frazier
C	Frank Ragnow	Michael Niese	Netane Muti
RG	Kevin Zeitler	Christian Mahogany	Colby Sorsdal
RT	Penei Sewell	Dillon Radunz	Connor Galvin

*- slight note, the OL is set to reflect a more likely top-53 man roster showing of a two-deep, but more likely you'd see Mahogany compete at LG with Glasgow.

Defensive Coordinator: Kelvin Sheppard, fourth season in Detroit, first in current role

EDGE	Aidan Hutchinson	Shemar Stewart	Mitchell Agude
DT	Levi Onwuzurike*	Alim McNeill*	Mekhi Wingo
DT	D.J. Reader	Deone Walker	Brodric Martin
EDGE	Joe Tryon-Shoyinaka OR Za'Darius Smith	Joshua Paschal	Nate Lynn
ILB	Jack Campbell	Malcolm Rodriguez	Jalen Reeves-Maybin
ILB	Alex Anzalone	Derrick Barnes	Abraham Beauplan
CB	Marlon Humphrey	Nohl Williams	Erick Hallett
CB	Terrion Arnold	Tre Brown	Stanley Th.-Oliver
SLOT	Amik Robertson	Ennis Rakestraw
FS	Kerby Joseph	Elijah Molden	R.J. Mickens
SS	Brian Branch	Elijah Campbell	Loren Strickland

*- I have Onwuzurike listed as the starter here to reflect the reality that Alim McNeill's 2025 recovery timetable is still somewhat unknown if he'll be ready to go right at the start of the year. Thus, Onwuzurike would see more snaps early as the 3T next to Reader, and McNeill takes the spot back once healthy. No need to panic/worry/fuss.

[chemiclord]

I did not understand the reason why the Lions would even want to trade for Kupp to begin with, and I still don't get it.

The Lions already have a guy who is better at everything Kupp does right now in St. Brown (and is considerably younger), and Raymond is more than acceptable depth for that type of receiver. The Lions would be better served keeping whatever pick they'd waste in a trade for a redundant and lesser WR, and simply re-signed Tim Patrick (who actually serves a need for the offense) for less scratch than what Kupp's contract would be.

[froot loops]

On offense they could use a real blocking TE. That would help probably more than Cooper Kupp.

[Mainevent]

He’s trading for Kupp and then also using the pick in his mock draft.

I’d rather use that 3rd round pick to just grab a WR (or TE as Froot suggested).

[CGVT]

I did not understand the reason why the Lions would even want to trade for Kupp to begin with, and I still don't get it.

The Lions already have a guy who is better at everything Kupp does right now in St. Brown (and is considerably younger), and Raymond is more than acceptable depth for that type of receiver. The Lions would be better served keeping whatever pick they'd waste in a trade for a redundant and lesser WR, and simply re-signed Tim Patrick (who actually serves a need for the offense) for less scratch than what Kupp's contract would be.

Yep. The Kupp talk is stupid. I guess it is just how it works, though. I imagine every fanbase is as stupid as the Lions' fanbase. Every time a "star" pops up in free agency fans all over the country think "this is just what we need!" even when if fact, it is not.

Who'd a thunk that Chemi would be the voice of reason?