The Offseason Thread

[ghandi]

But F Vildor for his negative awareness on the helmet play. He was in position for that one and could not have screwed it up more.

Even if he made the perfect play, there was a flag thrown on the play (which was picked up after Aiyuk caught the ball)....had that ball been intercepted or fallen incomplete, I have no doubt that they would have called a penalty for pass interference on Vildor...There was contact while the ball was in the air...That play was going to go SFs way no matter what.

[El Axe]

David Shaw new offensive passing game coordinator.

That probably means Engstrand is Jets OC.

Shaw was Stanford HC from 2011-22

[Mainevent]

I’m curious about the Engstrand move - is he moving on because the Lions passed him over or was he going with Glenn no matter what?

[Marko69]

Even if he made the perfect play, there was a flag thrown on the play (which was picked up after Aiyuk caught the ball)....had that ball been intercepted or fallen incomplete, I have no doubt that they would have called a penalty for pass interference on Vildor...There was contact while the ball was in the air...That play was going to go SFs way no matter what.

This is no doubt correct, but got to assume there are people who think The Kindle sucks based on quite a few plays, (books and battery life) no?

[Mainevent]

Senior Bowl notes, for those that are interested.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/insider/story/_/id/43590978/senior-bowl-2025-nfl-draft-best-prospects-quarterbacks-nuggets

https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-senior-bowl-daniel-jeremiah-s-top-standouts-from-week-of-practice

[El Axe]

This is from B077, a guy who posts to reddit but is absurdly knowledgeable and in-depth with his posts.

https://old.reddit.com/r/detroitlions/comments/1ie94h5/bo77_mock_offseason_version_1_trenches/

Hi folks! We're back for the offseason portion here that is my personal favorite, or maybe speciality is the better word there as winning games is actually probably my favorite. The Lions finished the season as back-to-back NFC North winners, and the top seed in the NFC, though fell to the upstart Washington Commanders in their first playoff game this season. In some ways, it's a nice new experience to actually be able to be let down like this, as it means you're good enough to have lofty expectations and that's a nice change of pace from just about every other Lions season beforehand. But, retooling the team is now the move, so let's dive into it.

NOTE: I take a lot of time to do these posts and such, and thus I do not really care to suffer disingenuous posters, arguments, etc. Some have noted in the past that they have been blocked by me, and this is just fair warning that people who choose to be combative and disingenuous are promptly blocked, as this is the internet and I do not care to waste my time arguing with folks looking to flex on my work. So for example, mock offseason are theoretical scenarios that explore differing styles of team building that the Lions could choose to deploy. Thus they differ, and some are more conservative and some are more aggressive. Some choose to go crazy in some ways that the Lions have the ability to, and others are more practical. So do not mistake this as what I am suggesting or recommending what they could do.

As I've noted previously, I really like doing some pattern recognition pieces to how the Lions operate and thus try and project in a similar manner. I usually do a lot better than most out there, but it's still pretty imperfect overall, and thus should be managed accordingly.

But anyways, excited to be back with some posts. Lions sit in a really pretty position to be able to retool their roster and come back next year in a dominant way.

Also fwiw, would not surprise me if Lions QB Teddy Bridgewater is hired on to replace J.T. Barrett as assistant QB coach.

Internal Extensions and Cap Space

Taking a quick look at the roster, the cap space, the future roster construction, and draft pick allotment and you come away with the idea that the Lions will be able to spend another season spending significantly to retain their core before the budget starts to tighten a bit further. Over the Cap, perhaps the top of the line resource when it comes to roster and contract tools to look at, currently projects the Lions at around $46.7 million in cap space this upcoming offseason, good for ninth in the league.

However, the Lions longer term cap space begins to take a bit of a hit in the years after that, dropping to:

• A projected cap space of $22.1 million in 2026.
• A projected cap space of $123.1 million in 2027.

For reference, both of these rank 29th in the league, out of 32 total teams.

Now, the very good news is that the reason this is so is because Detroit has already been proactive to extend and retain several core pieces that theoretically can propel their success into the coming years, signing players like Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeill and Jared Goff to major money contracts.

So, ultimately, the Lions do have one more season where they can actually make a more aggressive play, but we're going to start by doing Brad Holmes' own method here: retaining the Lions core players first. Well, sort of, but let's dive into the specifics.

There are a few players that are extension eligible, meaning not players who are set to become free agents if not extended, but rather players who are now eligible to negotiate additional years onto their contracts, usually at top dollar rates. The main names this discussion will focus around are:

• EDGE Aidan Hutchinson
• S Kerby Joseph
• WR Jameson Williams

Now a note here: The Lions are not cheap, and hometown discounts really aren't a thing for players in their prime, so banish any stupidity that tries to convince you that most of these guys would be receiving less than very significant money that puts them in the top-5 to top-10 or so of their positions. For reference, the Lions signed Penei Sewell to the largest OL contract ever, and gave Amon-Ra the most guaranteed ever for a WR. So when it comes to extensions for players like Aidan Hutchinson, who was leading the league in several pass rushing metrics at the time of his injury, and Kerby Joseph, a First-Team All-Pro at his position this past season, do not expect anything less than elite money. WR Jameson Williams is probably a different story, as he's perhaps the one most likely to receive an extension outside of the top-10 at his position, given that his continued suspensions and some injury history have given him a little less time to make as clear a case for that kind of money.

Currently, my projection for EDGE Aidan Hutchinson is a July or August extension most likely, as his will be more commanding than the others and thus leaving a little more flexibility through this summer is usually the more prudent approach. As for the numbers, I would suggest we'll probably see something that comes in north of $30 million per year, as we currently have Joey Bosa commanding the top number with $34 million, but then behind him just a couple of $28 million per year players in Josh Allen (JAC), T.J. Watt, and Brian Burns.

A four-year deal at about $122 million is currently where I'd project it, and also I believe what Spotrac projects, a $30.5 million per year deal. I am not going to bore everyone with the details of what it'd potentially look like on a contract chart, but knowing Mike Disner, it'll likely include a pair of void years to spread some cap hit from the signing bonus out, probably with an actual bonus in the $40 million range that would raise his cap hit from like $11.4 million this season to $18.1 million, but that helps you save a good chunk in the long run and push the cap burden forward where the Lions, as mentioned, can more easily absorb it in their current projections.

The next one up is S Kerby Joseph, and I am rolling with a top-5 contract for Joseph from Detroit, so projecting a 4-year deal worth $72 million, just north of what the Packers signed S Xavier McKinney for last offseason. McKinney is a pretty good comparison, as while he wasn't an All-Pro like Joseph was, he was an elite player hitting the market at 25 years old. Joseph is an All-Pro and will be a year younger on the market, at 24-years old. So a slight uptick there.

Right now, I am going to hold off on an extension projection here for WR Jameson Williams, as I think he's going to be third fiddle for the Lions in terms of the order they try to retain him. Joseph probably gets his deal first by nature of his total amount being the cheapest, while Hutchinson takes priority as the most important. Williams is a bit of a wild card, and I'm holding off for now.

Internal Free Agents

Now we shift to the re-signing feature here. For this scenario, I am going to proceed with the idea that RG Kevin Zeitler retires from the NFL and calls it a career. In the next one of these I do, I will have him stick it out, but this one includes him retiring.

Cuts

There are probably a few cuts the Lions might consider making, but these are the two I am going to incorporate in here:

• cutting LG Graham Glasgow, which saves Detroit exactly $5 million to designate him as a post-June 1st cut (released before June 1 in case anyone is confused on how that works).
• cutting EDGE Za'Darius Smith, which saves Detroit $5.7 million outright, and zero dead cap there, which is a nice touch.

The other ones you'll see bandied about are LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, DT D.J. Reader, and WR Kalif Raymond, but I am choosing to leave them all on board for the time being, as I think there's enough value still to be had.

For Glasgow and Smith, both are aging veterans past their prime who are perhaps still viewed more capably by fans than they really are. Smith helped as a midseason addition with Hutchinson out, but is not really a necessity to keep, and the $5.7 million is questionable there. Glasgow's value is fine if the Lions think he'll bounce back after a tough year, but as he's set to turn 33-years old this season, that's probably not the best bet to make. Glasgow could be a candidate to revise his contract and take a voluntary pay cut lest he be cut, which I do think is a moderately high likelihood all things considered, but I'll explore that in the next round of this, where I'll be keeping Glasgow and Zeitler and looking at addressing some other spots. This one is a more OL heavy retooling, so that means Glasgow is cut, and Zeitler retires.

Restructures

I am going to do two restructures here, as there are two moves I think work pretty cleanly for Detroit. The first is restructuring QB Jared Goff, as OTC estimates a restructure of Goff would free up about $13.4 million for the Lions. And the next is OT Taylor Decker, which frees up $10.3 million. Now, some may ask "why" on Decker, but the answer is actually pretty simple. It only pushes an additional $4 million into the Lions cap liabilities for the 2026 offseason, which means if the Lions cut bait on Decker after this year, it's more on the books still in 2026 when he's no longer around. However, two realities exist, which is that even with the added expense there, freeing up $10 million this year still allows portions of that to be rolled into 2026, meaning the Lions can essentially treat it like just $6 million in free agent and effectively negate the downside with rollover cap (like they've done in prior years under Disner). The second one is that, even with the Lions projected to be now be about -$20 million in the hole in 2026 with the extensions I made above, if the Lions are ready to cut bait on Decker (who is aging and on a bit of a decline), then cutting him post-June 1st next offseason cleans a full $18.2 million off the books, essentially wiping any deficit the Lions would be starting with, and that's aside from an even better extension construction from Disner than I probably managed myself.

The only other restructure to maybe consider is WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it only frees up about $5 million, and that's usually not enough margin for GMs to pull the trigger.

Re-Signings

The following are exclusive rights free agents, and thus pretty much a total lock to have their contracts exercised by Detroit, a mandatory one-year deal at the veteran minimum at their spot: Nowaske & Agude & Niese & Galvin

Again, no sense in not bringing them back, as the Lions need to fill a 90-man roster and these are cheap and easy moves that almost every single team makes.

Here are the extensions I am going with for internal free agents:

LB	Ben Niemann	1	$1.5 million
G	Kayode Awosika	1	$1.75 million*
RB	Craig Reynolds	1	$1.75 million*
OT	Dan Skipper	1	$1.2 million
DL	John Cominsky	2	$8 million
CB	Carlton Davis	3	$48.6 million
CB	Emmanuel Moseley	1	$1.2 million

*- both are restricted free agents, meaning there are different levels of tenders that could apply for each, but I do not think either warrants the $3.3 million ROFR tender (undrafted), so a deal before free agency with the veteran minimum + a decent signing bonus probably works here. TBD of course.

The two main re-signings done here are CB Carlton Davis and DL John Cominsky, with some noted rotational pieces or backups retained as well. Davis is a key priority for Detroit to retain if they can reach an equitable deal, as the cornerback market doesn't offer much in the way of true upgrades, though it likely has some equitable replacements if need be. And then Cominsky was injured this past season, but has been a viable rotational piece on the DL, and with Za'Darius Smith cut, I think bringing back Cominsky at a similar deal to his last one is worthwhile enough for Detroit to ensure the depth on the DL stays sufficient.

We do let a few people walk in this one, notably DT Levi Onwuzurike, S Ifeatu Melifonwu and LB Derrick Barnes, though as you can guess, we'll probably explore keeping them in the next installment of the Mock Offseasons. Both could command solid starting money and opportunities elsewhere, and thus the Lions will aim to make some replacement moves.

Cap Space

With those adjustments and moves, the Lions sit at $67.8 million in cap space headed into the 2025 offseason, as the cuts and restructures ultimately would free up more space than the re-signings and extensions would eat up, though you could realistically describe it more as about $45 million or so in operational spending money, as Detroit would want about $20 million or so to roll over, ideally, to make the 2026 cap picture look much cleaner, though some of that is also allocated to signing a 2025 Draft class, and a potential extension for WR Jameson Williams to dip into that.

External Free Agents

EDGE	Chauncey Golston	DAL	2	$10.0 million
DT	David Onyemata*	ATL	1	$5.5 million
OL	Jedrick Wills	CLE	1	$4.5 million
WR	Mack Hollins	BUF	1	$3.0 million
S	Nick Scott	CAR	1	$3.0 million
CB	Brandon Stephens	BAL	1	$2.0 million
EDGE	Eric Banks	TB	1	$1.1 million
C	Shane Lemiuex	NO	1	$1.1 million
S	Jason Pinnock	NYG	1	$1.1 million

This is a method of free agency pursuit that I deem a little bit more as an authentic Patriots circa like 2014-2018 or so, namely adding a decent number of lower tier veterans who can provide steady depth and reserve, rarely breaking the bank or getting in the way of the internal development of the guys you draft, but still adding to the team in that fashion.

Here, the Lions go grab EDGE Chauncey Golston from Dallas, a Detroit native who stepped up after some injuries in Dallas and posted 5.5 sacks and nearly 40 pressures in extended action. He's capable of being a quality pass rusher across from Hutchinson in rotation with Paschal and Cominsky and anyone else.

DT David Onyemata is a projected cap cut for the Falcons, as he's still an effective player in his early 30s but a one dimensional run-stopper. Still, the Lions need some help at DT with Onwuzurike gone in this scenario, McNeill still recovering and nothing else proven besides DJ Reader.

OL Jedrick Wills is a major reclamation project, as he was quite poppy this past season in Cleveland, but kicking him inside to guard and letting him work under Hank Fraley could bring out the best of him, an explosive, kick ass player who landed in the first-round out of Alabama. CB Brandon Stephens is also on there as a bit of a "this guy wasn't good as a starter last year but as a backup for the Lions, that sounds fine" type of addition. He was a big, longer, press cornerback coming out of SMU, so might click for him in Detroit's press Cover 1 man heavy scheme.

WR Mack Hollins is a serviceable WR3 in the bigger WR role that Tim Patrick occupied. He put up over 30 catches including 5 touchdowns in Buffalo. And S Nick Scott is a veteran, versatile safety that Holmes played a role in drafting to LAR back in 2019. He'd give them some solid depth behind Branch and Joseph.

Shane Lemieux, Jason Pinnock, and Eric Banks all represent various depth adds. NFL Draft

Here is what we went with for the Draft for this one:

Picks are estimated at the moment until compensatory picks are confirmed. In the meantime, these are what Tankathon currently shows.

Round 1, Pick #28	OL	Aireronte Ersery	Minnesota
Round 2, Pick #60	EDGE	Josiah Stewart	Michigan
Round 3, Pick #101	CB	Dorian Strong	Virginia Tech
Round 4, Pick #132	WR	Jack Bech	TCU
Round 6, Pick #198	TE	Bryson Nesbit	North Carolina
Round 7, Pick #227	EDGE	Ethan Downs	Oklahoma
Round 7, Pick #230	OL	Marcus Wehr	Montana State
Round 7, Pick #246	LB	Jailin Walker	Indiana

Starting it off with Aireronte Ersery, a 6-6, 340 pound three year starting left tackle for the Gophers, Ersery has had a strong start at the Senior Bowl, and could be an intriguing multi-positional option for the Lions as a guard in 2025 and potential replacement for Taylor Decker (at either left or right tackle depending on Sewell) down the road. He's long, technically savvy, and has plenty of power to dominate for the Lions early.

Then in the second round, we have Josiah Stewart, a former Coastal Carolina transfer to Michigan. He's a little undersized for a true DE role, but Holmes has always had a penchant for smaller, hard charging SAM type pass rushers and Stewart is an elite version of that, and really fits the mold of a Detroit Lions football player.

CB Dorian Strong is another big, athletic press cover corner to develop. The Lions double dipped last year, but still need to invest in that room until the depth becomes solidified. WR Jack Bech is a nice prospect who fits the smooth separator mold that Holmes has prioritized amongst WRs. Very willing as a blocker too, definitely a Lions kind of dude. TE Bryson Nesbit is a flex TE who excels at route crispness and pass catching more so than in-line blocking, but could find a role as a reserve TE for the Lions.

And then with the trio of seventh-round picks, some upside shots on Ethan Downs, a hard charging edge rusher needing more consistency and technique, Marcus Wehr, another experienced OL who could contribute in multiple spots, and Jailin Walker is a smaller, chase linebacker with good IQ that can help on special teams.

2025 Lions Mock Offseason Depth Chart

Head Coach: Dan Campbell, fifth season in Detroit (41-30 record, 2 NFC North titles)

Offensive Coordinator: John Morton, second season in Detroit, first in current role

QB	Jared Goff	Hendon Hooker	Jake Fromm
RB	Gibbs	Montgomery	Reynolds/Vaki
WR	J Williams	A Green	R Bell
WR	ARSB	Raymond	Kennnedy
WR	Mack Hollins	Jake Bech
TE	LaPorta	Wright	Bryson Nesbit
LT	Decker	Skipper	Manu
LG	Aireronte Ersery	Niese	Marcus Wehr
C	Ragnow	Shane Lemieux	Eguakun
RG	Mahogany	Jedrick Wills	Muti
RT	Sewell	Sorsdal	Galvin

Defensive Coordinator: Kelvin Sheppard, fourth season in Detroit, first in current role

EDGE	Aidan Hutchinson	Joshua Paschal	Isaac Ukwu
DT	D.J. Reader	Brodric Martin	Chris Smith
DT	Alim McNeill	David Onyemata	Mekhi Wingo
DE	Chauncey Golston	John Cominsky	Eric Banks
SAM	Josiah Stewart	Ethan Downs	Nate Lynn
ILB	Jack Campbell	Trevor Nowaske	Abraham Beauplan
ILB	Alex Anzalone	Jalen Reeves-Maybin	Jailin Walker
CB	Carlton Davis	Brandon Stephens	Maurice Norris
CB	Terrion Arnold	Dorian Strong	Stanley Tho.-Oliver
NICKEL	Amik Robertson	Ennis Rakestraw	Erick Hallett
SS	Brian Branch	Nick Scott	Loren Strickland
FS	Kerby Joseph	Jason Pinnock

[El Axe]

Just to emphasize -- B077 puts these together not so much as a prediction, but as a possible direction the Lions could take.

In a response underneath the post, he says that he personally doesn't think they'll replace Z Smith with the younger Golston, which is one of the more controversial takeaways.

[Mainevent]

I like Josaiah Stewart and think he’ll be a useful NFL player. But i can’t imagine he’d be anywhere near ready to step into a starting offball LB role given he’s almost exclusively been an edge rusher for his college career. More like a couple of year development timeline of that’s the plan.

[-Deborah-]

Just to emphasize -- B077 puts these together not so much as a prediction, but as a possible direction the Lions could take.

That was quite a lot of effort for someone who isn't getting paid to do that type of work, nice.

[Blue Lagoon58]

And probably won't be all that accurate in the end, lol. Good read for today though!

[Mainevent]

By the way, the WR he mentions - Jack Bech - is the brother of Tiger Bech, the former Princeton football player killed in the truck attack in New Orleans. Had a great senior season and was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl practices this week.

[El Axe]

And probably won't be all that accurate in the end, lol. Good read for today though!

He usually does a whole series of posts, exploring all sorts of directions and possibilities. Eventually, he makes his most predictive posts, which are typically the most accurate you'll find (because he concentrates on only one team).

As you said, it's fun to read and as the offseason progresses, you gain insights into what the Lions are thinking for roster construction and draft strategy.

[El Axe]

Colton Pouncey speculates on what it would take to bring in Garrett. :

Browns get: 2025 first-round pick (No. 28) and third-round pick, 2026 first-round pick and QB Hendon Hooker

Lions get: Garrett and 2026 fourth-round pick

I’ll preface this by saying this would be a true departure from the roster-building strategy we’ve seen in Detroit under Lions general manager Brad Holmes. He’s been adamant about sticking to their process, which has focused on building through the draft, adding free agents where it makes sense and extending their homegrown talent.

They just signed Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Jared Goff, Taylor Decker and Alim McNeill to multi-year extensions near the top of their respective markets. Aidan Hutchinson and Kerby Joseph are next on the list. A year from now, they could be looking at extensions for Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams. Adding a veteran like Garrett might come at the expense of taking care of their own. That alone could prevent them from even discussing this.

However, Garrett is on the short list of players one could make an exception for and justify it. He’s a Hall of Fame talent, still in his prime, looking to win. The get-in price is probably two firsts, considering the bidding war that could unfold. In this scenario, the Lions would part ways with their next two first-rounders, their 2025 third-round comp pick and Hooker for Garrett and a 2026 fourth.

The Browns could draft Abdul Carter to replace Garrett, while giving Hooker an audition in 2025 and waiting until 2026 for a quarterback. A bold move, but one that could elevate Detroit’s defense to a championship level. Or, it could simply bring back Za’Darius Smith to pair with Hutchinson in 2025. — Colton Pouncy

[DanO]

"Browns get: 2025 first-round pick (No. 28) and third-round pick, 2026 first-round pick and QB Hendon Hooker

Lions get: Garrett and 2026 fourth-round pick"
-----------------------------------I'm in. People keep saying Holmes won't make this move because it's not what he's shown in the past. He's never been in this situation. He's built a team through the draft just as he said. He did a great job Now it's time to add the final piece to a dominate DL and defense. A first round pick this year isn't going to help them. Garrett does. Draft choices don't help us win a SB this year. Possibly next as well. Garrett significantly increases our chances of winning a SB. DO IT!

[Blue Lagoon58]

I'm usually pretty against big splashes like this, but if all it takes is 2 1s, a 3 and Hooker, sign me up!