Washington at Detroit Divisional Playoff Thread

[froot loops]

They didn't really take anything from the Lions in 91. The Lions were incredibly lucky to get there and it was supposed to be a stepping stone of things to come. That Washington team was amazing

[Mainevent]

Interesting subplot to this game that Washington is the team that Ben Johnson pulled out of the interview process when the team was flying to Detroit to interview him for a 2nd time after the NFCC. That then triggered the media hissy fit from Washington and the Athletic putting out a hatchet job on Johnson for Washington. Then somebody from Johnson's side leaking that he thought the new Washington owners were "basketball guys".

[GALion68]

They didn't really take anything from the Lions in 91. The Lions were incredibly lucky to get there and it was supposed to be a stepping stone of things to come. That Washington team was amazing

The Lions very likely would've made the Super Bowl if it weren't for that Washington team. And of course they dropped off the following season but so did the Lions.

[Blue Lagoon58]

Now the Washington media is out there peddling that the Commanders are the ones who cancelled the meeting because Ben wanted Sam Howell as the QB, but the front office said they were going to draft one. Doesn't seem all that believable, but who knows/who cares.

[Sanders Fan]

[whatever_gong82]

Detroit Football Network


How a rookie GM and a retread coaching hire turned around Lions' Divisional round opponent overnight
Justin Rogers

Jan 14, 2025



Allen Park — When Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes arrived in Detroit, it took a minute for the Lions’ rebuild to start consistently producing wins.

In 2021, the team threatened to go winless before securing three victories in their final six games. The following season, the Lions started 1-6 before the switch finally flipped. But since that sluggish start, the team has won 35 of its last 44 regular-season contests, earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC this year.


The rebuild for the Washington Commanders — Detroit’s Divisional round opponent — has been on a more accelerated path.

The franchise reset started with the hiring of new leadership last offseason. First-year general manager Adam Peters was lured away from San Francisco, where he had served as John Lynch’s assistant GM the previous three seasons. Then, after being spurned by Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Commanders pivoted to Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to helm the roster.


In Dallas, Quinn had led three straight top-10 scoring units. And before that, he compiled a 43-42 record as the Falcons head coach, including a 2017 Super Bowl appearance.

But the heart of the Commanders’ resurgence has been a near-total overhaul of its roster. While Holmes was handcuffed by a subpar salary cap situation upon his arrival to Detroit — exasperated by having to fulfill quarterback Matthew Stafford’s trade request — Peters inherited more than $90 million in space and wasted little time putting those funds to work.


By the time the offseason was complete, the Commanders' roster barely resembled the group that finished 4-13 the previous season. Each position group, down to the long snapper, was retooled to meet a new vision.

As with most great NFL turnarounds, it begins at quarterback. Holding the No. 2 pick in the draft, the team made the easy decision to move on from middling starter Sam Howell. He was replaced by Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat passer out of LSU.


Paired with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury — who coached Patrick Mahomes in college and Kyler Murray in Arizona — Daniels flourished as a rookie, posting a passer rating north of 100.0 while racking up nearly 900 yards rushing.

Daniels stepped into a decent situation, with a quality running back in Brian Thomas and an excellent No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin, but Peters revamped the rest of the offense to give his young QB the best chance to succeed. That included three new offensive linemen — center Tyler Biadasz, Nick Allegretti and rookie Brandon Coleman — veteran tight end Zach Ertz and productive receiving back Austin Ekeler.


Added up, the Commanders increased their scoring by 47% year-to-year, finishing fifth in the league in 2024.

Defensively, Quinn and first-year defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. were charged with repairing the league’s worst unit, which had allowed 30.5 points per game in 2023.


Comparable to the offense, the Commanders invested heavily in reshaping the porous unit’s personnel. Along the defensive line, they retained the tackle tandem of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, supplementing the front with three free-agent additions and second-round draft pick Johnny Newton.

There was familiarity with the edge signings, as Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr played for Quinn in Dallas and Clelin Ferrell spent 2023 with Peters in San Francisco. The trio combined for 16.0 sacks and 108 QB pressures this season.


In the second level, the changes were even more significant. The Commanders signed highly productive seek-and-destroy linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. The tandem logged more than 2,100 defensive snaps this season, racking up 231 tackles, 10.0 sacks, 11 pass breakups, two forced fumbles, and four fumble recoveries.

The team’s defensive backfield was also reworked. Underrated Kamren Curl was allowed to walk in free agency and replaced by the bigger, more athletic Jeremy Chinn. He delivered 117 tackles, 2.0 sacks, an interception, and a forced fumble in 2024.


And at cornerback, the team signed Noah Igbinoghene and drafted Mike Sainristil to replace secondary stalwart Kendall Fuller and 2023 first-round draft pick Emmanuel Forbes. Sainristil, the former Michigan standout, led the team with 14 pass breakups and two picks.

Regarding Forbes, the team dumped its previous three first-round picks the past several months, releasing the corner and linebacker Jamin Davis midseason while trading wide receiver Jahan Dotson during training camp.


The defense's improvements weren't as drastic as what the offense experienced. Still, the 2024 group finished middle of the pack in scoring, allowing a touchdown less per game than 2023.

Peters’ two-pronged approach of attacking his rebuild through free agency and the draft paid immediate dividends, resulting in 12 wins and the franchise’s first playoff victory since 2005.



Email: jrogers@detroitfootball.net

X: Justin_Rogers

Bluesky: Justin-Rogers

[Dan V]

Remember guys, Washington is 30th on defense vs the rush.
Lions need to get out in front early( win the toss and take the ball).
They must not overemphasize the rush and forget the passing game, but use play action like crazy .
I hope Montgomery is used 1/3 and Gibbs 2/3 and I hope he is READY . I don’t want any set backs for him. He is a leader in the locker room and we need him for the stretch run.

Lions win easily 35-17

[DanO]

I'm thinking similar on the score Dan. Love your game plan.

[CGVT]

FWIW

Vegas thinks this is going to be a blowout.

All of the Lions starting skill players have better odds for an anytime TD than Daniels and McLaurin. They have Reynolds and Vaki with better odds than any Washington starter other than Daniels and McLaurin.

I am still nervous. Ha!

[Coop]

playoffs are just that..nerves. We as Lions fans are simply not used to being here, we are not used to winning. Historically the other show always drops, the door slams shut and the season is over way too early. Go back 5 years and these talks were a pipe dream.

This should be a fun game to watch - GO LIONS!

[Mainevent]

Washington fans riding the wave like the Lions did last year. Belief is a powerful thing - with Daniels they’ve proven that if you let them hang around, they won’t wilt and can steal the game.

Get up early, control the clock. Don’t count on the rook playing like a rook.

[Trickalicious]

It seems like everyone is forgetting our Flint Michigan Mega Bowl history. Corn dogs Jackie, corn dogs for all these people!

[whatever_gong82]

Pride of Detroit Direct

By Ty Schalter, exclusively for Pride of Detroit

For a week, Detroit Lions fans had the luxury of pretending everything wrong with their team’s once-top-five defense had been fixed. A masterful gameplan from defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, the emphatic return of linebacker Alex Anzalone and clutch performances from fill-in defenders like cornerback Amik Robertson restored the unit’s roar against the 14-win Minnesota Vikings.


But on Monday night, quarterback Sam Darnold and the Vikings offense looked even more flustered and lost against the Los Angeles Rams than they had against Detroit. Exactly what did the Lions do to shut down Minnesota, and how much of that was actually about their defense? How much of that performance is repeatable going forward? And, perhaps most importantly, how repeatable will it have to be for them to make it out of the NFC?


The easiest question to answer is the first one: Detroit shut down Darnold and the Vikings by blitzing their brains out.

Glenn sent extra rushers on 53.3 percent of Minnesota’s snaps, the second-most of any Lions game this year, according to NFL Pro. That’s just ahead of the other Vikings game, which was 51.4 percent, and behind only the stunning 62.5 percent blitz rate Glenn called against the Green Bay Packers in Week 14.


In fact, the Lions sent by far more blitzes at Darnold than any other team this year; the next-most, at 35.7 percent, was the regular-season Los Angeles Rams game. That’s right: the three games Darnold got blitzed most often were the three regular-season games the Vikings lost.

But blitzing and pressure are two different things. In fact, the Rams only blitzed on 18.4 percent of Darnold’s snaps on Monday night but got pressure 52.4 percent of the time—the second-highest of any Vikings opponent all year. Detroit got the fourth-highest pressure rate on Darnold last week, 48.9 percent; that’s way up from the 34.2 percent they got back in Week 7.


What changed?

Part of it is the protection. Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw was lost for the year against Detroit in Week 7, and two other Vikings linemen (plus tight end Josh Oliver and fullback C.J. Ham) registered PFF pass-blocking grades of 74.9 or higher. In Week 18, fill-in left tackle Cam Robinson graded out at 51.2; Ham, running back Aaron Jones, and two other linemen fell below that terrible mark.


But part of it was how Detroit blitzed. They sent an all-out Cover 0 blitz 14 times, per Dan Pizzuta of The 33rd Team, the single-game high for any team in the NFL this season—and held the Vikings to -0.48 EPA per play on those blitzes. Detroit’s usual reliance on man coverage was even heavier in Week 18, second-highest of any team all year.

Darnold tried to beat the blitz by throwing over it, as Jared Goff often does. According to PFF, Darnold’s average depth of target was 11.7 yards when blitzed, 7.6 when not. But unbelievably, Darnold was worse when not blitzed; he completed just 8 of 22 passes for 44 yards—an average of just 2.0 yards per attempt!


That’s the definition of seeing ghosts.

Glenn’s hyper-aggressive gameplan came with big risks. If Robertson hadn’t held Justin Jefferson to three catches, cornerback Terrion Arnold and linebacker Jack Campbell didn’t put up their two best-graded coverage games of the year, and Anzalone wasn’t able to play 64 of the Lions’ 65 defensive snaps (and in the process, turn in his second-best run-stopping and tackling performances of the season), Darnold could have made them pay for sending so many extra rushers.


In fact, he should have made them pay. Darnold’s completion rate over expected was -15.7 percent, per NFL Pro—not just by far his worst of the season, but the 12th-worst of any qualified passer all year. According to StatHead, Darnold’s eye-watering 13 off-target throws were the most bad throws in one game by any NFL quarterback all year.

There’s no question Glenn bet big on himself and his players in the highest-stakes game of the season; clearly, those bets paid out.


But what happens if the Lions try to defend the Washington Commanders like that?

Quarterback Jayden Daniels seems to present the same kind of challenge Josh Allen does: tall, fast, dangerous with the ball in his hands and great at throwing inside and outside the pocket—cue the narrative about Glenn, the Lions, man coverage and running quarterbacks.


But Daniels, according to NFL Pro, has played more like Goff than Allen when it comes to handling extra rushers.

Daniels is one of the most conservative passers in the league when facing four or fewer rushers. He’s averaging the 27th-fewest air yards per attempt (7.0), with the 27th-lowest rate of deep throws (7.7 percent). His accuracy isn’t great when dinking and dunking into defenses dropping at least seven defenders; his CPOE is an 18th-ranked +0.7 percent. And his +0.07 EPA per dropback ranks 12th.


But when you blitz Daniels, he lets it rip: 9.0 air yards per attempt, with 13.6 percent of those passes going deep, both ranked 10th in the NFL. His CPOE improves to +1.7 percent, ranked 10th, and his EPA per dropback goes all the way up to fourth (+0.25 percent).

So it seems like the best way to stop Daniels is to not blitz. But when statistically comparing all of Daniels’s single-game performances, there’s no correlation between how often teams blitzed him and how often they got pressure, or how often teams blitzed him and his EPA per dropback.


But there is a slight correlation, with a coefficient of -0.266, between how often Daniels is blitzed and his CPOE for the game. That means that very generally, the more you blitz him, the less accurate he is—and the more pressure you get when you blitz, the worse he performs when you don’t.

In other words, you’ve got to make Daniels see ghosts.


In their Wild Card game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were expected to repeat the blitz-heavy success they had against Daniels in the regular-season opener; the two Bucs games were the fifth- and sixth-heaviest blitz games Daniels has faced. But they actually blitzed a little less often, from 47.1 percent to 41.0 percent—and Daniels’ CPOE jumped from -4.7 percent to +6.6 percent, his EPA per dropback grew from +0.17 to +0.25, and his NFL passer rating improved from 93.1 to 110.2.

So this Saturday, it will again come down to not just how often Detroit blitzes, but how they blitz. Where is the pressure coming from, how often does it get home, how well do they contain his scrambles, and how long can the Lions secondary keep the clamps on Terry McLaurin and company?


Darnold went 1-for-9 on pass plays longer than four seconds, per Pizzuta, and if the Lions again risk throwing so many bodies forward, so often, the burden will again fall on the Lions’ secondary to put the clamps on a talented pass-catching corps.

Well, that or Goff and the Detroit offense could just score more points faster than Daniels and the Washington offense.

That’d work, too.

 

[ghandi]

"Remember guys, Washington is 30th on defense vs the rush."

That seems odd to me because I thought Payne was supposed to be one of the best in the NFL against the run and the pass? I thought he was on par with Vita Vea of TB as far as a menacing DT?

[froot loops]

If I had a choice, I'd rather have the ball to start the second half. If there is a flaw, it is sometimes the Lions can have a couple bad drives to start the 1st half.

When they played Buffalo, the Bills had just got run over by the Rams because they don't have a great run defense. Williams was getting 5 yards a pop. Against the Bills, the Lions tried to establish the run in the 1st quarter, they were stuffed and spent the rest of the game playing catch-up.