Bad, Bad, Ugly - If You HAVE to Shit the Bed, Against the Bills is the Best Time

[Mainevent]

Vikings and O’Connell going to be licking their chops after watching what Buffalo did to this defense.

[Cody_Russell]

Yes, that’s the Lions right now. They’re fighting without arms. One more injury to let’s say Goff or anyone on the OLine, it will be like when the Black Knight had his torso ripped off.



I would imagine the only teams that have had worse injury luck are the teams that have lost QBs due to injury…. Which is obviously the most important position by a mile. Lions are lucky that Goff has stayed healthy. I only mention it as a reverse jinx because surely the unlucky football gods wouldn’t be that cruel.

[Mainevent]

And that’s the known shit. Ragnow has had a tough couple of games, don’t know if it’s his toe issue or something else but he is struggling.

[Cody_Russell]

At least one snap when Ragnow whiffed a block yesterday. He’s a tough dude, but rough health situation when considering what he’s dealing with.

If trying to be positive with the Lions right now, they need some help. Really could use the Vikings and Eagles losing 1 more game this season. Therefore, the Lions could go 2-1 down the stretch and get the #1 seed. I’m not confident any of that can happen, but it’s what we need to root for at this point. I just can’t see the Lions making the Super Bowl if they need to win 3 NFC playoff games. Not with these injuries…. The #1 seed path, home field advantage, and then lucking out due to winning a shootout/ turnover margin is our path forward.

[Marko69]

The Black Knight didn't give up so neither should Lions fans. Just a mere flesh wound. Every redundancy and contingency of their depth is being tested. I'm kind of surprised the running back tandem has been as healthy as they've been.

Holy Grail is tonight’s viewing. Wife will be pissed off but, got to be watched. 👍👌

[DanO]

Holy Grail is tonight’s viewing. Wife will be pissed off but, got to be watched. 👍👌

Tell Sacha(sp) she can come over to my house and I'll console her.

[whatever_gong82]

Pride of Detroit Direct

By Jeremy Reisman



Well that was a stark reminder that losing sucks. It had been 91 days since the Detroit Lions’ last loss, and given some of the reaction after Sunday’s defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, it would seem we’ve been a bit spoiled over the past three months.

On the other hand, this didn’t just feel like a typical loss. It was both an outclassing from one of the league’s best teams, and it was a continuation of Detroit’s horrible injury luck. It’s one thing to lose a game. It happens. It’s another to have serious injuries that could impact this team’s chances at a Super Bowl

So let’s take inventory on how “bad” things are, and if the Lions can navigate more adversity.

Have the injuries finally reached a breaking point with the defense?
After the loss, Dan Campbell was asked, point blank, if he thought the injuries had finally caught up with this team. His answer was unequivocally no.

“No, I’m not buying it. I’m not. I don’t buy it,” Campbell said. “We can be better. We should’ve been better. We know how good they are, but that team was more urgent than us today, overall.”

There is no universe in which an NFL head coach can answer that question “yes.” To admit injuries are now too much for the team to handle is to essentially give up. It sends a message to the healthy guys in the locker room that they are not enough, and to the entire team that they’re essentially doomed. Campbell would absolutely never do that, even if he believed it to be true. Now, I think Campbell is an honest person, and I think he has confidence that he and his coaching staff can get through this. But he is also likely too close to the situation to evaluate it objectively. So let’s do it ourselves.

First, let’s look back at the last two games. It hasn’t been pretty. Just so you have a baseline, for the season, the Lions have been allowing 5.6 yards per play and 20.1 points per game. Against the Packers, they allowed 6.6 yards per play and 31 points. Against the Bills, it was 8.2 yards per play and 48 points.

Of course, we have to put those performances in their proper context. The Packers offense ranks seventh in scoring and third in DVOA. The Bills rank second in scoring and second in DVOA. This has been a perfect hurricane of injuries mounting right when the Lions defense is facing their biggest challenges of the season.

But if you take the sample size back to the second half against the Bears, well… there are no good excuses for that performance. In the final two quarters of that Thanksgiving game against a Chicago offense that ranks 25th in scoring and DVOA, the Lions allowed 20 points and 6.2 yards per play. I suppose you could make the argument that Detroit had to make a ton of in-game adjustments due to the several injuries that happened in game, but that excuse seems flimsy, at best.

I will admit a 2.5 game sample–mostly against the best offenses in the league–is not enough for a definitive trend, but it is certainly a disturbing swing.

While we’re on the pessimistic side here, it’s important to remember that Sunday’s game against the Bills was supposed to be the return of so many players from injury. Detroit got back Josh Paschal, DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, and Taylor Decker. The bench of players who could return and help this defense is suddenly much smaller. Realistically speaking, the only players who didn’t play against the Bills who are expected to be ready for the opening week of the playoffs are Alex Anzalone, Trevor Nowaske, Ennis Rakestraw, and Ifeatu Melifonwu. That may be all the help that Detroit is getting.

With Carlton Davis and Alim McNeill now confirmed out for the year, that leaves the Lions without the following defenders for either the rest of the season or all but a theoretical Super Bowl.

Aidan Hutchinson

Marcus Davenport

Kyle Peko

Alim McNeill

Mekhi Wingo

Derrick Barnes

Malcolm Rodriguez

Carlton Davis

Khalil Dorsey

That’s not even including John Cominsky and Ifeatu Melifonwu, both of whom have missed all season and have a chance to come back for the playoffs. As of right now, their theoretical starting lineup for the playoffs would look something like this:

EDGE: Za’Darius Smith
DT: DJ Reader
DT: Levi Onwuzurike
EDGE: Josh Paschal
WLB: Alex Anzalone
MLB: Jack Campbell
SLB: Trevor Nowaske
CB: Terrion Arnold
CB: Kindle Vildor/Emmanuel Moseley
NCB: Amik Robertson

S: Kerby Joseph
S: Brian Branch

Okay, I think I’ve beaten you into submission enough. Let’s talk hope.



Why the Lions may be able to survive this

Look back at the last newsletter. If we’re going to praise this Lions coaching staff as one of the best in the league, that gives them a fighting chance. We just got done praising how well they did with a ragtag group of linebackers and defensive linemen. Suddenly all of that goodwill is gone? Was our praise maybe a bit of an overreaction based on a single game? Possibly. But if you believe that to be true, certainly we can’t overreact to just the Bills game. There’s a good chance the Lions’ patchwork front seven’s true talent lies somewhere between the two performances. And even better, as the newbies continue to get more reps and playing time, it’s logical to believe they’ll learn, get more comfortable, and improve over the next month prior to the playoffs.

“The guys that we do have that have only been here for a short period of time, I expect them to be better than even last week,” Campbell said prior to the Bills game. “And I made the point, all these guys are football players, it’s not like these guys can’t play football that are in here. So, I expect us to be better in that area.”

Obviously that didn’t happen this week, but it’s reasonable to believe that when they aren’t opposite the leading MVP candidate it will look better.

And the linebacking corps really is the key to everything. While undervalued across the NFL, the Lions value that position quite a bit. It’s key to their run game, and they ask a lot of the linebacker corps when it comes to blitzing and coverage, as well. You saw on Sunday what happens when that group isn’t up to the challenge. Buffalo peppered their running backs and tight ends all afternoon, and the bleeding never stopped.

That is where the Lions are getting their best injured player back. If the Lions have Alex Anzalone next to Jack Campbell, they will be just fine at the second level. Whether the Lions continue to roll out a third linebacker or, hopefully, commit to more nickel packages, that is manageable.


And when you look at the rest of that potential starting lineup, is it really that different than what the Lions have been working with all year? The loss of McNeill is huge; I don’t want to move right past that. Detroit will need Onwuzurike, Pat O’Connor, and likely Brodric Martin to step up in a huge way. Detroit cannot let its run defense take a step back.


As for the Davis injury, that’s a big blow, too. But we also bragged about the depth at cornerback all offseason. Detroit has capable players in Kindle Vildor, Emmanuel Moseley, and possibly even Ennis Raketstraw. Combine that with an improving Terrion Arnold, and I think Detroit can survive in the secondary, too–especially with the stellar safety duo that will be supporting them.

Ultimately, we can’t forget the other side of the ball. For as bad as it was for the Lions defense on Sunday, the Lions offense kept them in the game from start to finish. It wasn’t even the offense’s best performance–they went three-and-out twice and turned the ball over–and they still nearly had a shot at a Hail Mary to win it. The Buffalo Bills are maybe the only team in football that can keep up with the Lions in a shootout, and so if the Lions have to win football games like they did in 2022 and 2023–by outgunning them–they have 1.5 years of experience to fall back on.

Do the injuries limit the Lions’ margin of error going forward? Of course. Do they now have fewer ways they can win a football game? Undoubtedly. But this team has succeeded with less, and they have time to figure everything out.


Lions get shown-up in battle of the coordinators
By Brett Whitefield, owner and COO of Fantasy Points

*Before we dive in, remember that all data cited in this section is provided exclusively by Fantasy Points Data Suite - right now you can get 25% off of a Data Suite subscription by using our exclusive promo code POD25.


The Lions were due for a loss. And let’s be clear, there is no expectation for a team to win every single game they play. In fact, you can make an argument it was probably good for them to get it out of the way - that way they aren’t defying history every game from here on out. I would even go a step further and say, sometimes you need that humility check, a wake-up call so to speak. A schooling of sorts to show you where you stack up as Dan Campbell would put it. This game was a bit much though and I am not sure this level of exposure was what the doctor ordered. I mean that both literally and figuratively as this lesson was an expensive one, costing the Lions three more bodies on defense.

Let's take a look and see where things went bad.


Ben Johnson could learn some lessons from Joe Brady

I spend a lot of time lavishing praise on Ben Johnson. All of it has been deserved. He isn’t perfect though and when he misses the mark I will bring it up.

The game plan yesterday was not a good one. One would think rolling into a game in which the opposing team was missing three starting members of their secondary, including their starting safety duo, you would have a game plan specifically aimed at exploiting those absences. Especially against a team that primarily lives in 2-hi coverages and puts those safeties in primary coverage more than almost anyone. The Bills play 2-hi coverages at the 4th highest rate in the NFL.


The Lions offense waited to attack the weakness and while the defense didn’t do them any favors, the attack came too late. Midway through the 3rd quarter the switch finally got flipped and the Lions went right at those safeties. Drawing up 2-hi beaters and consistently winning downfield or taking the easy yards in the flats.

Conversely Joe Brady did the opposite. He went right at the Lions biggest weakness from the very first play of the game. A LB unit that has 4 players on IR and is rotating a cast of characters who were mostly unemployed two weeks ago.


Aaron Glenn vs Joe Brady

Joe Brady identified the exploitable matchups for his team and went directly at it. With the Lions so banged up at linebacker combined with their man-coverage happy tendency, this made for easy wins the entire game. Minus the 60-yard pass play to Keon Coleman, almost every single big play for the Bills in this game was the result of poor linebacker play.

In the run game, the Bills came in with a MAN/GAP heavy approach. Utilizing pulling lineman to change the Lions LBs sight picture post-snap. When a player has just a handful of practices under his belt in this scheme, the cohesion and sorting out proper run keys and fits is not an easy task. Especially when the POA is moving with pullers. Juxtaposed to a zone-heavy scheme that will have cutback lanes built in but allows the LBs to play fast and get downhill with limited traffic to navigate. The eye discipline comes a little more naturally. The Bills gashed the Lions in the run game.


They also used their running backs and tight ends to perfection in the pass game. Picking on those reserve linebackers in man coverage with superior athletes in Ty Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Ray Davis, and James Cook. The Lions play man coverage more than any team in the NFL and Bills had a plan to go after it.

It seemed like no matter what the play was, the result was a reserve Lions linebacker out of position or being beaten.

In the end, it's a huge learning experience for the Lions, one they clearly needed. But was it worth the cost?


VIDEO: Jeremy and Erik recap the Lions’ loss to the Bills

 

[Marko69]

Tell Sacha(sp) she can come over to my house and I'll console her.

You fit enough after the hernia op ya horny bstd!!

[mason reese]

I’ve been fine with Campbell’s aggressive calls, but not that early onside kick. The numbers don’t work. The chances that the defense makes a stop, or the Bills have a drop or penalty and stop themselves, has to be better than the 7% chance to recover the kick.

I wasn’t wild about the onside kick call, but…barring a return the difference between a touchback and an inside is like 25 yards. My hope was that if the Bills were dialing down the aggressiveness on offense, then maybe they could bait them into settling for a quick FG.

[Mainevent]

The good thing is, most QBs aren’t Josh Allen. Per ESPN:

That has led to one of the more stunning numbers I can share about a quarterback this season. As you can probably guess, most quarterbacks have their performances collapse under pressure. Leaguewide, passers have collectively posted a 67.3 QBR without pressure and a 32.8 QBR under duress this season, with their performance dropping off by 34.5 points of QBR. (Remember that Total QBR includes both sacks and scrambles.)

Allen, somehow, has been better under pressure than he has without it. He has posted a staggering 89.1 QBR under pressure; just two other starting quarterbacks have posted a QBR better than 62 against pressure, and neither is within 16 points of Allen. He's averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has thrown 10 touchdown passes without a single interception against pressure. Some quarterbacks can't do that against air.

That 89.1 QBR is the best anyone has ever posted under pressure in a single season by a considerable margin going back through 2009, when ESPN started to track pressure data. It's probably telling that the guy he's beating who previously had the single-season mark for QBR under pressure is ... Josh Allen, who posted a 77.7 QBR mark against pressure two seasons ago.

[ghandi]

And that’s the known shit. Ragnow has had a tough couple of games, don’t know if it’s his toe issue or something else but he is struggling.

Ed Oliver destroyed the Lions interior OL yesterday.....Ragnow and Glasgow especially looked really bad.

[dsred]

If you got rid of Jameson Williams you would have to get a speedster that can run block with the best of them. Not an easy replacement. Williams is probably going to top 1000 yards, he has 5 TDs. Saint gets a lot of open space in the slot with defenses paying attention to Williams

Do they have the money to pay what he's going to ask?

[dsred]

Jeff Daniels and Peyton Manning need to go to Ford Field and do another Bobby Layne Curse Exorcism. Man, the fucking injuries....

[NewOrleansLion]

Jeff Daniels and Peyton Manning need to go to Ford Field and do another Bobby Layne Curse Exorcism. Man, the fucking injuries....

I was thinking the same thing. How long is the warranty on the last job they did?

[Fraquar]

I wasn’t wild about the onside kick call, but…barring a return the difference between a touchback and an inside is like 25 yards. My hope was that if the Bills were dialing down the aggressiveness on offense, then maybe they could bait them into settling for a quick FG.

At the end of the day Dan realized at some point they were going to have to take that gamble. At 12:00 or :30 - the conversion percentage is no different.
Lions defense wasn't going to stop the Bills - and I think he realized the Bills weren't going to stop the Bills either.
Does he do that trailing against the Bears? Probably not. Against a legitimate SB contender? Different story.