GBU for the GB sequel

[LightninBoy]

I'm starting to think that a "great oline" plus "Aggressive on 4th and short" is an unlocked cheat code in the NFL. Sure a great oline is always an advantage, but the aggressiveness on 4th down is a force multiplier of that advantage.

The most underappreciated aspect of this combination is the effect it has on *3rd down*. Remember when 3rd and 6 or longer was an automatic pass? Hell, for past Lions team, anything longer than 3rd and 2 yards was an automatic pass. And the defense could just aggressively play against the pass. On 3rd and long, the defense could also give up the short throw and be confident that any tackle short of the sticks is a win. Now the defense has no idea what is coming and must defend the whole field, not just the sticks and beyond.

The other impact it has is on these end of game scenarios. How many times now have we seen it playout where the Lions use a 4th down conversion to hold on to the ball and secure the win with their offense versus take a mid to long range field goal for a small lead but leave time for the opposing offense? Last night was a great example of that. Sure the analytics gave an edge to kicking the field goal, but have those analytics fully taking into account the new kickoff rules and the fact that kickers are routinely making 50+ yard field goals? I doubt it, but regardless, what they are definitely *not* taking into account are the in-game dynamics; the obvious fact that the Lion offense was better than the the GB defense, and the GB offense was better than the Lions defense. Putting the game in the hands of the unit with the obvious advantage is the smart call. Even if analytics says to put the game in the hands of the unit with the obvious disadvantage.

I agree with chemi that Dan sometimes takes this aggressiveness too far. I didn't like 2 of the 4th down calls last night. One of those the Lions got stuffed and GB scored a TD on a short field. And the other the Lions scored a TD instead of taking the field goal. But looking at that honestly, I'm not sure the Lions win if they had followed my instincts. So what is "too far"? I dunno. As far as actual results go, Dan gets it right more than I do on my couch.

It is a bit frustrating that most of the sports media has not yet caught up to this. Either they seem to believe the Lions are winning in spite of these aggressive decisions (the "it will catch up to them, sometime" argument) or at best they just attribute it to be part of the Lions identity. While the latter argument is true, it minimizes the impact. It discounts the true strategic advantage the 4th down aggressiveness provides.

[froot loops]

I worked with a high school football team for over 20 years and the worst feeling was playing a WingT team from the Thumb. They rarely punt and always go for it on 4th unless it is a really long distance. It always sucked.

[SnowMeiser]

Good: Lions win. Good. Gritty. Win. Getting a short bye week to kind of heal up and see where we are at injury wise for when Buffalo comes to town

Bad: I have to admit I didn't like the 4th down call on roughly the Lions 30 yard line, specially a pitch to the running back who now has to gain 7 yards instead of a short 1. I did love the last fourth down call before the game winning field goal. I think that the Lions may have had the packers at a disadvantage wondering if the Lions were actually going to run a play or just to try and get the defense to jump offsides. That minimal jump I think helped.

Ugly: Another injury to McNeill. Hope it isn't serious and he can come back next Sunday

Best: Listening to the packer fans whining about officiating and how they were actually the better team.

[El Axe]

Accidental Renaissance

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[Marko69]

Good (Great)......, 12-1 Lions. Just quite unbelievable. Dare the fans start believin' GJ87 style?

Bad: Being the worst Lions fan in the history of Lions fans......., didn't know the game was on. Thought it was Sunday. Missed what would've been an awesome MicroMike live stream.

Ugly: Got flu issue going on. Went into a coughing fit in the van......, piece of green shit flew out & landed on my overalls, but didn't notice. Went into shop to buy flu drugs. The woman MUST'VE seen the green shit! Ain't going back to that shop EVER!

Disclaimer: I know the ugly is supposed to be about the Leos, but didn't see it due to being the worst Lions fan in history. Green Phlegm story was the only proper ugly I could muster up, verbally & literally.

KAAAMMM AN YOU LEOS!!!

[Iron Lion]

That probably works even better if Ra isn’t wearing fluorescent orange shoes.

His shoes were brighter, but Gibbs was wearing Sonic red boots as well. So maybe would've been better if they had the exact same shade, but in a split second, the defender probably assumes it's Gibbs in the backfield and there's just lighting issues.

[Iron Lion]

I think the one thing that wasn't mentioned at all among the talking heads with the last 4th down play was that if they kick it on 4th down and Bates misses, we are in trouble, but if he missed with :02 on the clock, we are in OT. Seems like every "analysis" of the decision brushes that over.

[Iron Lion]

Btw forgot to mention the obligatory free 15 from our MVP, #7 Quay Walker.

[froot loops]

A lot of this goes to show you that if you make it on 4th down a lot of the time it gets taken for granted. They scored two touchdowns on 4th down. If they don't convert at the end of the half, it's a big talking point about Dan Campbell because in that instance you are truly giving up points that you can't get back by forcing them to punt to a short field.

Goff said the game plan all week was they were going to be aggressive on 4th down to put it on the offense. They killed it in total plays and TOP. In some ways it reminded me of the mindset that the Lions used in Campbell's first year when they faced the Rams. They were approaching it in an unconventional way to make up for the defense playing guys on 3 days notice.

They are one of the best teams in football, but the lessons learned when they were one of the worst still reverberate.

[Mainevent]

His shoes were brighter, but Gibbs was wearing Sonic red boots as well. So maybe would've been better if they had the exact same shade, but in a split second, the defender probably assumes it's Gibbs in the backfield and there's just lighting issues.

I was being mostly facetious about the shoes. Much like in Shawshank, how often do you really ever notice a man’s shoes?

[Mainevent]

A lot of this goes to show you that if you make it on 4th down a lot of the time it gets taken for granted. They scored two touchdowns on 4th down. If they don't convert at the end of the half, it's a big talking point about Dan Campbell because in that instance you are truly giving up points that you can't get back by forcing them to punt to a short field.

Goff said the game plan all week was they were going to be aggressive on 4th down to put it on the offense. They killed it in total plays and TOP. In some ways it reminded me of the mindset that the Lions used in Campbell's first year when they faced the Rams. They were approaching it in an unconventional way to make up for the defense playing guys on 3 days notice.

They are one of the best teams in football, but the lessons learned when they were one of the worst still reverberate.

Have a friend that bitches up a storm any time Campbell goes for a 50/50 decision on 4th and wouldn’t stop about the play from their own 30 last night. Of course he’s also the guy that always wants them to “take the points” down inside the 5 but then never brings it up again when the Lions are successful and the TDs they get end up mattering.

[froot loops]

TMQ used to always hammer the point about taking points and cowardly punts was at its essence blame shifting. If you take the points or punt you are shifting the blame from yourself to the players. If they don't stop it, it's their fault. The thing about Campbell is he will take those risks and shoulder the blame. But in doing that, it endears him to them to the point where they will run through walls for him.

If they punted it on that 4th down inside the 30, I wouldn't have complained. To me that's the edge case scenario. But I was fine with the attempt even if it failed.

[El Axe]

In some end-game situations, going for broke to win is the smart play instead of going for the sure tie.

From a coach's standpoint, if they take the sure tie and lose in OT, the fans don't emotionally remember their bad decision to go for the tie because it was far enough in the past, so the coach doesn't get much pushback. But, if the coach makes the smart decision to go for the win and the play fails, it's the last play of the game and the fans will emotionally remember the decision and be angry at the coach's decision even if it was the right one.

Even if the coach makes the right decision to go for it, he can get fired because of that emotional reaction. Playing it safe is the smart play if you want to avoid a bad fan reaction and keep your job even if it means losing an extra game or two.

[Fraquar]

It's kind of funny seeing some of these "analytics" people challenging/questioning why Campbell did what he did.
They don't seem to understand just how easy it is in todays game for the opponent to drive 30 yards in 30 seconds to retort (whether you get stopped or you make the FG - doesn't matter).
The one scenario GB has no defense over - you killing ALL of the clock off by getting that 1st down. It's their worst nightmare scenario - they'd be perfectly happy if you just kick the FG there.
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Will it always work? Nope.
That said, I'd rather take that chance then to have to defend against both GB and the Zebras in crunch time. We all know how that usually turns out.

[Fraquar]

It's kind of funny seeing some of these "analytics" people challenging/questioning why Campbell did what he did.
They don't seem to understand just how easy it is in todays game for the opponent to drive 30 yards in 30 seconds to retort (whether you get stopped or you make the FG - doesn't matter).
The one scenario GB has no defense over - you killing the clock off by getting that 1st down. It's the only way they never see the ball and get a chance to retort.
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Will it always work? Nope.
That said, IMO there is more risk not going for it there. Then you have to defend against both GB and the Zebras - and we all know how that usually turns out.