Mash Unit vs Trash Unit. Gameday Thread. packers at Lions 12/5/24

[Mainevent]

You don’t do that Stafford move anywhere but the goal line.

[mason reese]

You don’t do that Stafford move anywhere but the goal line.

True, forgot that you wouldn’t get forward progress if you pulled the ball back

[Mainevent]

It's more that the ball is still live anywhere else on the field. Once you cross the goal line, it's a TD - it doesn't matter if the ball gets knocked out of your hand after. But anywhere else it's a huge turnover risk.

[Meano.Culpa]

(Pool reporter asks about whether MCDC was nervous when Goff caught Glasgow's foot coming out from under center on the dagger 4th-and-1. Campbell cuts him off.)

MCDC: "He's an athlete." (Pool laughs.) "And he got that thing handed off."

Goff, later: “Yeah, real athletic to fall down on a routine handoff, but I’m glad we made it happen.”

I loved Campbell's answer. "Goff is an athlete" is funny, and Coach knows it, but it's true anyway. The guy is on the field in a Lions uni; he's an athlete.

If Bates trucks DeAndre Carter in the Bears game, MCDC will call him an athlete. And everyone will chuckle, but he will have meant it. (Fipp will chew Bates out later.)

[whatever_gong82]

https://x.com/AnnieAgar/status/1865086213155107032

[whatever_gong82]

Pride of Detroit Direct
by Jeremy Reisman



Before we get into the recap of the Detroit Lions’ thrilling win over the Green Bay Packers, I want to spend some time for gratitude. This past week has been a dream come true for me. We concluded our Movember campaign with a 14-hour stream on Saturday, and followed it up with the first ever in-person recording of the PODcast. We raised nearly $54,000 for the University of Michigan Rogel Cancer center, all the while creating some really fricken cool content.


But none of that happens with a team of people that have my endless thanks. Thanks to David Fucillo and Joel Thorman of SB Nation for believing in Pride of Detroit enough to launch this event, and then the countless days, weeks, and months they put into planning this event. Thanks to the Majestic Theater for taking on the unique challenge of a live-streaming podcast with virtual guests, and running it to perfection. Thanks to my fellow PODcasters, for carrying my stressed-out, physically exhausted corpse through the show, and making the PODcast as fun as it is.

And lastly, you all. The devotion you showed by subscribing to this very newsletter played a huge part in affording us the opportunity to run a live show. The passion of Lions fans is second to none, and it allowed me to fulfill a dream. Ever since I lost my dad to cancer eight years ago nearly to the date, I’ve pondered ways I can have him back in my life in some form or another. Maybe eating pickled pigs feet and vegemite by the spoonful isn’t exactly the way most people envision honoring their parents, that’s the kind of weird sense of humor that he’d appreciate. And, man, I hope he’s getting to enjoy some of this football, too.


So, again, thanks to everyone who has pitched in a dollar, or a pageview, or a comment in a live stream. You’re all part of this.

Now, let’s celebrate 11 damn wins in a row.


The game you’ll never forget

In the grand scheme of things, Thursday’s win over the Packers may not mean all that much. Detroit clinched a playoff spot, but they were always going to anyway. It certainly helps with their quest for back-to-back division titles, but they may need to beat the Vikings regardless of what happened against the Packers. And, if we’re being real, the 2024 Lions will be defined by what they do in the postseason, not what they did on a random Week 14 night.

But what happened in front of a national audience was special, and Dan Campbell knew it the moment he stepped off the field with his 12th win of the season.


“I told the team, ‘This will be one of those you never forget,’” Campbell said. “I was telling (Jared) Goff pregame, I said, ‘Man, you’ve played all these games, you’ve had this long career,’ and I’m sure there’s some he probably – you don’t remember everything when you’ve played as long as he has, but I said, ‘You will never forget this one. You will never forget this game.’”

By now, you’ve seen all the graphics of the decimated defensive depth charts. You’ve seen the stats about a record amount of players on injured reserve, and you’ve likely turned to a friend and asked, “Who the hell is number 78?” (It’s Jonah Williams, by the way.)


But what fans didn’t see is the scrambling happening behind the scenes. You didn’t see Lions GM Brad Holmes and the personnel department put their Thanksgiving weekends on hold to poach the practice squads of the Seahawks (Myles Adams), Rams (Williams), and Broncos (Kwon Alexander) just to get the Lions to a playable roster this week. You didn’t see assistant coaches working overtime to expedite the onboarding process so these players would not only have a place to temporarily live, but also to learn a crash course on the Lions’ operations and defensive scheme.

You didn’t see the players cramming their best, while adjusting to new timezones, teammates, weather, and the sudden departure from loved ones.


And you didn’t see the brains at the top, masterminding it all.

When the Lions Frankenstein’d defense finally made their debut on Thursday night, they caught the Packers completely off guard. Aaron Glenn and company came out HOT. Here’s a look at Jordan Love’s first seven dropbacks:


Sack by Za’Darius Smith

Pressure leads to scramble

Za’Darius Smith pressure (bailed out by Brian Branch pass interference)

3-yard pass

Incomplete pass, pressure by Al-Quadin Muhammad

Incomplete pass

Incomplete pass, pressure from Ezekiel Turner



That’s a pressure on five of seven dropbacks, with only a single completion in Love’s first five attempts. Green Bay thought they were in for an easy night. They had no idea what was coming.

“Hell of a job by (Aaron Glenn) AG, and those guys just laid it on the line,” Campbell said. “We call them the northern savages, they just roll right in the door, and they’re in the game. It’s a hell of a job.”


You may look at the scoreboard and wonder what was so special about the Lions’ defensive performance. They gave up 31 points to the Packers. Love finished with a 111.7 passer rating and Josh Jacobs found the end zone three times. And, yeah, it wasn’t their best performance. But they started with a punt, punt, forced fumble, and they ended with their lone red-zone stop of the evening.

And when you’ve got an offense that is special, and can hang 34 points against just about any opponent, that’s good enough.


The Lions just lived out the real life version of “The Replacements,” and it didn’t take a Hollywood screenwriter to produce the happy ending. Detroit did it on their own, against a desperate division rival, in the midst of a three-games-in-11-days gauntlet.

I sure as hell won’t forget this anytime soon.



Lions stand on resilience and next man up mentality in win vs Packers

By Brett Whitefield, owner and COO of Fantasy Points

*Before we dive in, remember that all data cited in this section is provided exclusively by Fantasy Points Data Suite - right now you can get 25% off of a Data Suite subscription by using our exclusive promo code POD25.


Whoa! The Detroit Lions have shocked division rival Packers while winning a franchise record 11th straight game and tying the franchise record for most wins in a season. While the big storyline of the game was the Lions getting a win without 16 defensive players (including Alim McNeil), I have a different angle I want to focus on.

The Lions' resilience on offense. They put up 400 yards of production and scored 34 points despite their offensive line having a rough day. Let's dive into it.


Lions overcome worst OL performance in forever with Ben Johnson masterclass


The Lions offensive line is arguably the best unit in all of football and even without Taylor Decker, they are still in the conversation. Yet for this game, they really struggled. I thought Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell had their worst games of the Dan Campbell era. It was a struggle across the board in both pass-pro and in the run game.

In the run game it was plain to see by the untrained eye the Lions were getting whooped upfront significantly more than normal. Kenny Clark was having himself a day and took it to Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow. An advanced metric that really stands out was the Lions only generating 1.25 yards before contact per attempt. That is a season low and less than half of their season long average which is over 2.7 yards.


In pass-pro the numbers don’t scream that they had a rough day. Goff was only pressured on 12 of his 43 dropbacks. A 27% pressure rate is right in line with their season average and actually is a touch better (28.4%). Sometimes, raw numbers can lie though and I am an absolute stickler for adding context to the data. And with that, the tape and some of the other advanced metrics provide the necessary context to support my claim.

The Green Bay Packers decided to play very aggressive, routinely loading up the box to not only stop the run but also create a bunch of pressure looks, sim-pressure looks, and overall scheme disguise. They blitzed the Lions on 17 of Goff’s dropbacks (40%) and called stunts/twists on another six of them. In total the offensive line was having to deal with some type of pressure look on 53% of their pass-pro sets. Early on, the OL had trouble passing off some stunts and picking up some blitzes. There were guys losing 1v1s and also free runners coming through the A-gap. We saw David Montgomery late to his spot on a couple snaps and the OL sliding the wrong direction on others. This was by design for the Packers as they had a very disruptive initial gameplan. The chaos created early in the game gave Ben Johnson an opportunity to adjust, and he expertly adjusted them out of it.



What changes did he make? Well, the ball was coming out insanely fast. Goff’s average time to throw in this game was 2.2 seconds, by far the quickest snap to throw delivery we have seen this season and significantly under his season long average of 2.65. Johnson also dialed up eight screen passes which not only helps the ball come out quickly, but also punishes aggressive fronts selling out to get upfield. Furthermore, the Lions ran short pass concepts on a number of drop-backs including seven of pure “quick-game”. For those that don’t know, quick-game is a term used for those quick hitting 3-step drop pass concepts where the ball is out on that third step. Concepts like Lion/Arrow, stick, spot or spacing. Think of the first Tim Patrick touchdown. That was quick game (as was the INT to Patrick). Ben also stayed heavy on the play-action concepts, forcing the Packers to maintain eye discipline and keeping the second level defenders just a half second behind the play.

In totality, Ben (and Goff) navigated unideal circumstances to execute and carry a defense. Head coach Dan Campbell always preaches about complementary football and one unit picking up another when needed. Today the offense made good on their promise - championship caliber stuff.


Jeremy and Erik recap the thrilling win over the Packers on Thursday night

 

[whatever_gong82]

Three and Out: A defense defying odds, the value of belief, and a comeback's crescendo

Justin Rogers
Dec 6



Here are three observations after a second viewing and a night to ponder the Detroit Lions’ 34-31 win over the Green Bay Packers.


Defying odds and expectations

After the Lions had regained the lead for the second time in the second half, midway through the fourth quarter, the defense came onto the field with the task of holding it.


The unit took the field with five defenders along the line of scrimmage — safety/linebacker Jamal Adams, defensive lineman Myles Adams, defensive tackle Pat O’Connor, defensive lineman Jonah Williams and defensive end Al-Quadin Muhammad. Of that collective, only O’Connor has been here since the summer, but not even he made the 53-man roster coming out of training camp.

Football doesn’t stick to a script. Injuries are part of life in the NFL, and you need to plug in new pieces and keep moving. But this was a car with a rebuilt engine, being test-driven for the first time. Hell, Adams, Adams and Williams hadn’t even been in Detroit a week.


In all, defenders not on the Week 1 roster combined to play 233 snaps or 42.3% of the team’s total workload on the evening. More than a quarter of the snaps went to players who weren’t in the building at the start of October, and 12.5% to guys who were somewhere other than Detroit the previous week.

The influx of fresh-faced personnel was why faith in a team that had won its 10 previous games wavered among the fan base. Sure, the Lions had previously managed to overcome injuries to starters Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes and Marcus Davenport in recent weeks, but this was a different monster. Plus, the Packers were coming to town red hot, having hung 68 points on their previous two opponents.


And, to Green Bay’s credit, they did manage to score at least 30 for the third straight game, but it wasn’t the same. They did it with fewer than 300 yards of total offense. They did it without topping 100 rushing yards for the first time in six games. They did it with a passing game that faced far more pressure than could have been reasonably expected from Detroit's patchwork crew.

We’ve seen games littered with replacement players before, probably more than we'd like to remember, but this wasn't another one of those times. This isn't another team limping across the finish line just trying to go home for the offseason. No, this is a Super Bowl contender that refuses to lower its standard even if there wasn’t enough time to fully explain that standard to a handful of the guys being asked to uphold it.


Experience is a great teacher, success is a great motivator, and Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is both. The job he’s done this season has transitioned from remarkable to unbelievable.

It genuinely cannot be believed. No one would have accepted knowing the Lions had suffered this many injuries, had to play this many castaways, and were still thriving. That the franchise would have a new record winning streak and that the team had clinched a playoff berth three weeks before Christmas.


Manifestation of belief

Complementary football is a theme with all great seasons. There have been weeks where it's been Detroit's offense, defense or special teams that have carried the team to victory.

Ahead of Thursday, the messaging in the building was it was the offense’s turn. For all the faith the team put into Glenn’s ability to maximize the talent he was afforded, it was on quarterback Jared Goff and company to alleviate some of the pressure.


And that partially manifested in the team’s fourth-down strategy. The Lions went for it on fourth five times, converting four of them, including one to run the remaining time off the clock ahead of Jake Bates’ game-winning kick.

Individually, each of the decisions was debatable. The first, before the half, came from the 3-yard line when a field goal would have given the Lions a six-point lead at the break. Instead, they found the end zone and those four points were the difference.


They also went for it twice on another touchdown drive, including a fourth-and-1 at midfield and another fourth-and-goal from the 3.

The only misfire was a stuffed toss to running back Jahmyr Gibbs on fourth-and-1 from their own 31-yard line at the end of the third quarter. It was a bridge too far, even considering coach Dan Campbell’s long-established bend toward aggression. The Packers turned the stop into seven points, which was the opposite of complementary, putting the defense in an unnecessary predicament after the unit had stepped up and procured a three-and-out the previous possession.


But this is who the Lions are, never afraid to push the pedal to the metal. In 2021, the Lions set the franchise record for fourth down tries because they lacked talent and needed to steal possessions. They do it now because they can.

Whether it’s going for it on fourth down, sending a blitz while playing press-man coverage on third down, or going back to a receiver who dropped a pass the previous play the way the Lions did with Jameson Williams in the first half on Thursday, the coaching staff is constantly demonstrating its faith in the roster.


It’s why, when their backs are against the wall and the odds are stacked against them, the Lions' heart rate stays level. The players believe because they’re believed in.

So while you or I might question or criticize individual decisions in a vacuum, and we might be temporarily proven right when those decisions fail, they’ve accumulated into a hardened mentality that’s fueling this franchise. And who are we to argue with that?



A perfect match


It’s easy to take Tim Patrick’s season for granted because he wasn’t here while traversing his lowest points.


Highly productive in his third and fourth seasons, Patrick’s career was derailed by back-to-back season-ending injuries. In 2022 he tore his ACL and the following offseason he ruptured his Achilles.

Now on the wrong side of 30, those blows could have easily been career-ending. Yet he battled back, showing some promising flashes of his former ability during this preseason before his former employer, the Denver Broncos, opted to go in a different, younger direction.


Denver’s approach wasn’t wrong, just a harsh reality of the business. Regardless, the end of that relationship has spawned a new, beautiful one with Detroit, where Patrick has experienced redemption rooted in grit and determination that meshes perfectly with the city and franchise he now represents.

When Patrick first arrived in late August, days before the start of the season, I asked him about a touchdown catch he had in the preseason, and how meaningful the score had been even if the game didn’t count.



“My vision isn't just I'm going to come back and score a touchdown and I'm back,” he said. “I've got real goals set. That was just another stepping stone to get to where I need to be.”

Patrick didn’t share those goals, but it’s hard to imagine he’s not fulfilling many of the expectations he had for himself. After missing two years of football, he’s been a key cog for the Lions, appearing in 12 games, starting six and closing in on 500 offensive snaps.



Teammates and coaches have raved about his fit, from his playing style to his selflessness — he’s equally enthusiastic to throw a block for a teammate as he is to catch a pass. That mentality made Thursday’s crescendo of his late-career revival all the more special. For the first time in more than 1,000 days, Patrick found the end zone in a game that counted. And then he did it again.

No one in the organization openly stated the importance of getting Patrick into the end zone but they’ve clearly been looking his way more and more in recent weeks when in the red zone.



Patrick was an unexpected answer to a prayer when a No. 3 receiver failed to emerge for the Lions this offseason. On Thursday, he led a parade of unsung heroes, which included offensive tackle Dan Skipper, stepping in for injured starting left tackle Taylor Decker and allowing just one quarterback pressure. Or linebacker Ezekiel Turner, one of those late additions to the defense, who stopped a Jordan Love scramble in the open field to limit the Packers to a tying field goal instead of a go-ahead score in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

In a team filled with superstar talent, it never ceases to amaze how often the background actors end up in featured roles.



Email: jrogers@detroitfootball.net

X: Justin_Rogers

Bluesky: Justin-Rogers

[edindetroit]

[Blue Lagoon58]

Campbell played that perfectly and we still have the doubters.

LOL, it's comical. Like, WTF did I just read ITT. Some of you just shouldn't watch sports, for real. Jesus.

[edindetroit]

FB_IMG_1733534291866.jpg

[El Axe]

Eisen pointed out that the Lions have won more primetime games since 2022 than they did from 1999-2021

that's not surprising but still amazing

[whatever_gong82]

Niyo: Goff's memorable night moves Lions into playoffs — and maybe more down the road

John Niyo
The Detroit News



Detroit — Jared Goff has finished plenty of NFL games by taking a knee in the victory formation.

This was not that.


With a sold-out crowd of 63,987 at Ford Field holding its collective breath — if not shaking its collective head — as the Lions lined up to run a play on fourth-and-1 from Green Bay’s 21-yard line, rather than kicking the go-ahead field goal with 43 seconds left, Goff knew the game was in his hands.

But as he took the snap and turned to hand it to David Montgomery, he tripped. Left guard Graham Glasgow appeared to step on Goff’s foot, and the Lions’ quarterback fell awkwardly to one knee in the backfield.


“Bad feeling when you’re quarterback,” he joked later.

It’s hardly the first time he’s felt that way in his career, and it won’t be the last. But Goff did manage to make the best of a bad situation Thursday night, extending his reach just far enough to make the handoff — “I was even gonna flip it to him if I couldn't hand it to him,” he said — and then watched Montgomery rumble through the line for a 7-yard gain and a first down.


“He's an athlete,” head coach Dan Campbell deadpanned afterward, “and he got that thing handed off. David did the rest. It was great.”

It was the game, too. After that fourth-down conversion — the fourth among five bold calls on this night from Campbell — the Lions needed only to run one more play to set up Jake Bates for another game-winning field goal from 35 yards out to escape with a wild 34-31 victory over the Packers. That gave the Lions (12-1) their franchise-record 11th consecutive victory, and it also clinched a playoff berth for Campbell & Co., though no one in the Lions’ postgame locker room seemed all that excited about the milestone.


"I just found that out, actually," Campbell said, smiling sheepishly. "I didn't even realize that. Listen, it's great. We're in the playoffs. I wish I'd told the team (in the locker room.) I didn't tell them."

That’s because they’ve got bigger goals to reach in the regular season, honestly: defending their NFC North title and clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as a No. 1 seed.


But it’s also because this was a game that felt more like a gut check than any to date for these Lions, facing an amped-up NFC North rival with an injury-decimated defense and another national-TV audience.

“I told the team this will be one of those games you never forget,” said Campbell, whose Lions are now 9-2 in prime-time games since 2021. “I was telling Goff pregame, ‘Man, you’ve played all these games, had this long career … You will never forget this one. You will never forget this game.’


“And I think a lot of it is just that: what we've had to overcome, the hand that we were dealt. I just love the fact our guys don't make excuses, man. They just find a way. Everybody on this team believed we were gonna win that game, and we were gonna find a way. And we just … we did it again. We did it again. Guys did it.”

The defense did its part, certainly. Undermanned but certainly not overwhelmed, Aaron Glenn’s crew blitzed early and often, held Green Bay under 300 yards of offense for the game and came up with critical third-down stops all night, including Ezekiel Turner’s open-field tackle of Jordan Love with four minutes to play that set the stage for the Lions’ final winning drive.


"Those guys just laid it on the line,” said Campbell, whose makeshift defense finished with just four regular starters in the game after losing Alim McNeill and Brian Branch Thursday. “We call them the Northern Savages. They just roll right in the door, man."


But it was Goff and the offense that Campbell leaned on in practice this week. After a Thanksgiving win over the Bears that was far from perfect, Campbell made it clear this was going to be their game to win.

“He kind of challenged the offense, really,” said Goff, who threw a costly interception early in the second half but finished the night 32-of-41 for 283 yards and three touchdowns. “Challenged myself, challenged the guys on offense, like, ‘Hey, it's your turn to hold your weight and carry the load and make this thing go.’ And for me, that's like the greatest feeling ever, you know? You're like, ‘All right, let's effing go and let's make this thing happen.’”


They did that right out of the gate, taking the opening kickoff and marching 76 yards in 11 plays to take a 7-0 lead on Montgomery’s 3-yard touchdown. (He practically walked into the end zone with tight ends Sam LaPorta and Shane Zylstra paving the way with huge blocks.) And the Lions took a two-score lead into halftime as Campbell aggressively showed his hand with his first fourth-down call of the night: Goff hit Jahmyr Gibbs for a 2-yard score on a perfectly-executed fourth-down call with 14 seconds left.

That was just a sneak preview of coming attractions, though. Campbell elected to go for it on fourth down four more times in the second half, including once from the Lions’ own 31-yard line with Detroit clinging to a 24-21 lead. That Gibbs run failed on fourth-and-1, setting up the Packers with a short field they’d take advantage of to retake the lead with 14:20 to play.


“Yeah, I mean, we came to this game knowing we were going to do it maybe a little bit more than usual,” said Goff, who also found Tim Patrick in the back of the end zone on fourth-and-goal earlier in the third quarter.

But all that aggressiveness feels like business as usual for his players by now.


“And it’s bigger than anything,” said Goff, who was flawless again in the fourth quarter Thursday, going 10-for-10 for 105 yards, including three huge third-down conversions. “That's all you want from a head coach is to believe in you and that gives us that little extra oomph to want to make it happen. … It means a ton.”

And on this night, it meant everything in the end.


john.niyo@detroitnews.com

@JohnNiyo

[whatever_gong82]

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/mitch-albom/2024/12/06/mitch-albom-lions-resilience-shows-as-they-stayed-on-track-in-win/76812906007/

[whatever_gong82]

Gamblin' Dan Campbell makes this Detroit Lions playoff clincher one to remember

Jeff Seidel
Detroit Free Press

Paywall article.





OK, everybody. Hold your breath. Because this is gonna get tense. This is gonna get scary.

Here we go: Welcome back, Gamblin’ Dan Campbell!


"We knew all game that we were gonna go for it, if it was anything fourth-and-close," Amon-Ra St. Brown said after the Lions' 34-31 victory over Green Bay.


Didn't matter where they were on the field, they went for it.

One time.

And again.



And again.

OK, everybody, you can breathe now.

Because they made it the first three times they tried it, and it led directly to touchdowns instead of field goals or punts. That’s how the Lions had a 24-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Packers.


Because they were taking calculated risks.

Because they were so creative and gutsy.

But then, ugh, here comes No. 4.


That was crazy


Take a deep breath and hold it again because this is seriously scary — fourth-and-1 from the Lions' 31, and Campbell went for it again.

But it didn’t work.

In fact, it failed miserably, giving the Packers the ball just outside the red zone.



Four plays later, they scored to take a 28-24 lead.

You know what they say: Gamblin' Dan giveth, and Gamblin' Dan taketh away.



At that moment, maybe, you thought: That's it. That was crazy. That felt reckless.

But you’d better admit it’s the reason why they were actually in the game.

"Our offense, we knew they were going to need to carry the load," Campbell said. "They did that, stepped up in a big way, and it was a number of guys, really, made plays for us across the board. It took everybody we had on offense.


Listen, I get what he was doing.

I actually predicted it.


When your defense is decimated by injuries, and you are playing a fantastic team, you gotta take risks.

The Lions came into this game with 13 defensive players on the injured list.

Just when you thought: It can’t get any worse for this Lions defense.



Just when you thought: They can’t take any more losses.

It did get worse.

Alim McNeill was hurt on the first series and taken to the locker room with a head injury.



Then star safety Brian Branch limped off in the second half.

So, let's take a step back and think about the big picture. When you lose darn near your entire defense, and some backups — yes, that’s why they took so many crazy chances.



But after all those risks and all the back and forth, the game was tied, 31-31.

And the Lions had the ball with 3:39 left.

Goff hit Jameson Williams for 19 and a long first down, then Tim Patrick for 11.

Suddenly, they were darn near in field-goal range.



But a holding penalty shoved them back.

The goal was twofold: Make the Packers burn their timeouts and hold onto the ball, keeping Green Bay QB Jordan Love on the sideline.

"Dan was preaching all week that the offense was going to have to win this game," Patrick said.



When Goff hit St. Brown over the middle for 17 yards, they got a first down.

And then the refs took it away.

So it set up another fourth down — of course, right?

Hold your breath, folks.



It was fourth-and-1 from the 21 with 43 seconds left.

"I feel like you can't really lose either way," St. Brown said. "I mean, if you kick and go for three there, then they have some time to try to come back either tie it or win it. But we put the pressure on the offense, which we love."



To recap: Get it and the game was virtually over. Fail and it was gonna get super scary.

OK, hold your breath again — Goff stumbled as he backed away from the line of scrimmage ... and handed it to David Montgomery, who picked up the first down.



All that was left was a Jake Bates field goal for the win.

"Don't worry about outside noise or what's going on in the game," Bates said. "Just, you know, focus on what I'm here to do."



Whew.

Breathe again.


Now, a word here about the defense.

Despite all of those injuries, the Lions' defense did just enough.

Sure, at times it seems like this defense is held together with Scotch tape.


Unsung heroes

But they got some outstanding performances from guys who weren’t even on the active roster when this season started.

Here came Pat O’Connor, rushing his heart out. Za’Darius Smith, Al-Quadin Muhammad and Myles Adams all had quarterback hits. And Ezekiel Turner made a monstrous play to bring down Love in the open field in the fourth qurater, forcing a field goal.


It's astonishing, really, how defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has gotten this team in position to win, considering all the obstacles.

"Hell of a job by (Lions Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn) AG," Campbell said. "And those guys just laid it on the line.

"We call them the northern savages, they just roll right in the door, and they’re in the game. It’s a hell of a job."




Now, let’s zoom out and consider the big picture.

This win was tremendous. It locks up a playoff berth with four games to go, keeps the Lions in first place in the NFC and takes another step to homefield advantage. Oh, and they get a long break before playing Buffalo, a chance for some of these players to, you know, actually learn some of the playbook.



But make no mistake, there is one reason for this win.

One person at the center of it.

It all started with Gamblin’ Dan.


Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com. Follow him on X @seideljeff. To read his recent columns, go to freep.com/sports/jeff-seidel.

[Meano.Culpa]

Does anyone have the raw analytics stats on going for the dagger on 4th-and-1?

Fourth-and-one is about 2/3 successful historically.
FG from 35-40 yards is about 90%.
Assume OT is 50:50. So:
Go for it, get it, make it is about 60% Lions win share.
Go for it, get it, miss it is about 3% Lions win. (2/3 * 10% * 1/2)
Go for it, stuffed, Packers score in last minute is a zero for the Lions.
Go for it, stuffed, stop the Packers is about - what, maybe 10% Lions win? (1/3 stuffed * 2/3 stop Pack * 1/2 OT).
Adds up to ~75% Lions win.

Kick the FG is like:
90% make, 60% stop Pack = 54% win
90% make, 35% Pack get FG, 50% OT = 16% win
90% make, 5%% Love gets hero ball TD = 0
Adds up to ~70% Lions win

Those numbers track with the in-game win probability estimates and you can argue about Love’s hero ball odds from the GB 20 and 30. But, they should be *roughly* correct.

Leadership matters. Game plan was for the offense to take it and going for the dagger was internally self-consistent. I think it was also either even money or better on “the smart play.”