This one warrants a Game Week Thread. packers at Lions Thursday 12/5/25

[whatever_gong82]

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/12/04/detroit-lions-cb-amik-robertson-feeling-smoke-vs-green-bay-packers/76744102007/

[Dan V]

I can’t wait for the lions to be back on sundays.
This Thursday stuff makes my NFL sundays pretty weak.
All I do is root for other teams in my division to lose
along with Philly and Baltimore, who scares me because I think they can beat the lions.
But all these teams always win so the Lions almost have to go 16 -1!
Read somewhere that lions chances with a win vs the pack for the one seed shoot to over 90% while a loss puts them at 40%.
Big time game this week!!!!

[Cody_Russell]

My gut feeling about this game isn’t good, but who knows. NFL randomness. That negative feeling mainly has to do with the Lions defensive injuries, the Packers are playing very well, and last year’s games vs GB. 2023, Lions won comfortably at GB then played very poorly at home in a loss later in the season. 2024, Lions won comfortably at GB and have a big re-match that significantly affects seeding.

I hope the Lions can at least split the next two games. Obviously the preference is beating the Packers because it’s NFC and always F the Packers. Lions will win the tiebreakers if a 2nd loss is vs Buffalo/ the AFC.

Go Lions! This team continues to impress and continuing this hot streak would add onto the list. Certainly hope so…

Packers 27
Lions 26
Packers +3.5

[ghandi]

I like the Thanksgiving day game though at times I run into scheduling conflicts, usually after halftime....I could do without the Thursday night games altogether....I like the Lions being a part of the Sunday routine...When they are off I just lose interest in footbal pretty much.

[Tom]

The Lions definitely have to look at future replacements for Decker and Ragnow. But I think Decker just signed an extension and will probably be around for at least 2-3 seasons. Ragnow is probably the bigger concern because of his injuries.

[whatever_gong82]

How can Lions achieve NFC's No. 1 seed? Packers matchup will have massive implications

Nolan Bianchi
The Detroit News


Making the playoffs is a foregone conclusion in this new era of Detroit Lions football.


Now, the regular season is all about the Lions putting themselves in the best position possible to win the Super Bowl, which the Lions have done this season by getting off to the best start in franchise history (11-1). But these things never tend to be so simple, and the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings have certainly presented some obstacles for Detroit by each suffering just two losses this season.


While Detroit's Thursday Night Football matchup with the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field won't have much bearing on whether the Lions make the postseason, it has massive implications on the race for the No. 1 seed. The top seed in each conference bypasses the Wild Card round with a first-round bye and has home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, starting in the Divisional round.

Let's take a look at the Lions' path to the No. 1 seed and how their divisional primetime game against the Packers influences the odds.


How likely is the No. 1 seed?

Entering Week 14, Detroit has a 67% chance at the No. 1 seed and an 87% chance to win the NFC North, according to the New York Times' playoff predictor.


If Detroit falls to Green Bay (9-3), the 1-seed probability drops to 41%, and their divisional odds fall to 77%. If the Eagles then beat the Carolina Panthers this Sunday — a game in which Philadelphia is favored by 12.5 points — Detroit's chances at the 1-seed drop even further, to 37%.

But if Detroit beats the Packers at home on Thursday night, their chances at the No. 1 seed go all the way up to 84%. And if that's followed up with Philadelphia losing to Carolina on Sunday, Detroit at 12-1 will have a 93% chance at the first-round bye entering Week 15.


Because the Lions have a victory in their only head-to-head matchup with the Vikings, they don't factor much into the top seed, as it stands. But that could all come to a head in Week 18, when the Vikings — who just can't seem to lose — visit the Lions in the regular-season finale.

The Lions play each division rival once more, with high-profile matchups against the Buffalo Bills (Week 15 at Ford Field) and a San Francisco 49ers squad on Monday Night Football (Week 17 at Levi's Stadium) that's currently below .500.


Remaining schedules for the top contenders
All probabilities via the New York Times playoff simulator.


▶ DETROIT LIONS (11-1)

Remaining SOS: 3rd

Current chance at No. 1 seed: 67%

Current chance to win NFC North: 87%


If Detroit must suffer another loss before the end of the season, the best time to do it is against the Bills, an AFC opponent that will help the Lions maintain their tiebreaker over the Eagles, who have had both of their losses thus far come against NFC opponents. Before the season, it was presumed a Week 17 trip to San Francisco could dictate who gets the NFC's top seed — and it still will play a big factor, just not in the manner many expected.


Week 14: vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills (10-2)

Week 16: at Chicago Bears (4-8)

Week 17: at San Fransico 49ers (5-7)

Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)


▶ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2)

Remaining SOS: 23rd

Current chance at No. 1 seed: 26%

Current chance to win NFC East: 98%


Of the three top teams fighting for the No. 1 seed, Philadelphia has the easiest remaining strength of schedule by a significant margin. The Eagles' hardest remaining game is at home against the Steelers in Week 15. Outside of that, their four remaining opponents have a combined record of 18-31.


Week 14: vs. Carolina Panthers (3-9)

Week 15: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)

Week 16: at Washington Commanders (8-5)

Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-7)

Week 18: vs. New York Giants (2-10)


▶ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-2)

Remaining SOS: 4th

Current chance at No. 1 seed: 5%

Current chance to win NFC North: 8%


One thing hurting the Vikings' shot at the No. 1 seed is that Minnesota has no remaining games against AFC opponents. Every loss they can take will hurt worse than the most difficult game remaining on the Lions' (Bills) and Eagles' (Steelers) schedule.


Week 14: vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)

Week 15: vs. Chicago Bears (4-8)

Week 16: at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Week 17: vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Week 18: at Detroit Lions (11-1)


▶ GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-3)

Remaining SOS: 6th

Current chance at No. 1 seed: 1%

Current chance to win NFC North: 4%


Because the Packers already have a head-to-head loss to the Eagles and Lions, their probability of making a run at the No. 1 seed is extremely low. But if they can close their season on a high note, they'll still be one of the most dangerous teams entering the NFC playoffs.


Week 14: at Detroit Lions (11-1)

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints (4-8)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears (4-8)


nbianchi@detroitnews.com

@nolanbianchi

[whatever_gong82]

Some quick thoughts after Lions rule out 4 starters for Thursday night matchup

Justin Rogers
Dec 4



Allen Park — It’s not the worst-case scenario for the Detroit Lions, but it's not great news, either. The team will be without four of five starters who entered the week of practice with injury concerns for Thursday night’s matchup against Green Bay.

For the most part, the final injury report was anticipated. On Wednesday, the team ruled out left tackle Taylor Decker and defensive linemen Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and DJ Reader. The silver lining: Cornerback Carlton Davis III is back after a one-game absence.


Coach Dan Campbell didn’t leave much to guesswork with the first three names on the above list. Decker didn’t practice this week and will miss his second straight game with the knee injury he suffered against Indianapolis after quarterback Jared Goff was driven into the back of his legs.

Decker will be replaced by Dan Skipper for the third time this season. For those who didn’t catch the exchange earlier in the week, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson told me he didn’t intend to flip Skipper and Penei Sewell in the lineup because there was hope Decker could get cleared late in the week.


The other component to Skipper playing on the left is the Packers typically line up their less reliable edge rushers to that side, Kingsley Enagbare and Brenton Cox Jr. That leaves Sewell to handle Rashan Gary.

As for Paschal and Onwuzurike, they’re also dealing with knee injuries after exiting in the first half of last Thursday’s Thanksgiving matchup with the Bears. Campbell never oversold the chance of either player suiting up this week, but their longer-term outlook remains optimistic.


Reader's condition was a bit more surprising. He briefly exited the Thanksgiving game after landing hard on his shoulder. He told me after the contest he was sore — humorously pointing out it’s a lot of weight when he lands on anything — but he expected to be fine. But, as we know, when the adrenaline wears off things can swell and feel worse before getting better. That’s a likely explanation here, but there’s no immediate concern this issue will result in a stint on injured reserve.

Regardless, it leaves the Lions short-handed along the defensive front, including the need for two new starters. One will almost certainly be Al-Quadin Muhammad, who got the call two other times before the Lions added Za’Darius Smith to the fold. What’s reassuring about Muhammad is he's coming off a dominant performance last week, where he generated seven pressures, recorded a sack and drew a hold.


In place of Reader, the Lions have choices. They can play it safe and go with veteran Pat O’Connor. He’s appeared in seven straight games since getting bumped up from the practice squad, but he hasn’t played more than nine defensive snaps in the past four games. Surprisingly, he’s never made a start during his seven-year career, but he's logged more than 30 snaps twice, including against Tennessee earlier this season.

Another alternative is thrusting 2023 third-round pick Brodric Martin into the starting lineup. It’s a big ask, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Plus, if there’s one thing Martin has in spades, it’s Reader-esque, space-eating size. Martin has only played 30 defensive snaps in his career, and just two this season after missing several weeks with a hyperextended knee. Still, he showed promising flashes during his second training camp.


The rotation up front will be rounded out by newcomers Jonah Williams and Myles Adams. Normally, you wouldn’t want to play a guy after just three practices, but the Lions don’t really have a choice.

Also, expect the team to use at least one of its practice squad elevations on a defensive lineman. That could be an interior option like Chris Smith or an edge such as Isaac Ukwu, Isaiah Thomas or Mitchell Agude. With Williams and Adams both having inside-out flexibility, the Lions can go with whoever has been practicing at the highest level in recent weeks.


Speaking of elevations, expect three practice squaders to get the call for Thursday, with one landing on the 53-man roster. The Lions cleared an extra spot on Wednesday, releasing undrafted rookie safety Loren Strickland.

My guesses for the elevations: Return man Maurice Alexander, safety/linebacker Jamal Adams, and one of those defensive linemen, with a slight lean toward Chris Smith. Veteran offensive tackle Jamarco Jones is also in play. He’s been the team’s preferred backup, over Colby Sorsdal, for the previous two games Decker missed.


The evolution of Detroit’s linebacker rotation will be fascinating with Malcolm Rodriguez done for the season. Jack Campbell is the constant, and I’d imagine David Long and Ezekiel Turner will share a lot of Rodriguez’s reps initially, with Long the likelier early-down option.

Newcomer Kwon Alexander should also see reps in base packages with the potential for rapid playing time expansion down the stretch. As for Jamal Adams, I wouldn't expect many snaps this week if he gets the call from the practice squad, with his most likely usage as an extra rusher in obvious passing situations.


As for the Packers, they’re not without some of their own injury concerns. No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander will miss his third straight
game with a knee injury, while rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who has been playing about half of the team’s defensive snaps, will miss his second in a row with a strained hamstring.

On offense, Green Bay will be without receiver Romeo Doubs, who is still recovering from a concussion. That means more playing time for speedy Dontayvion Wicks on Thursday. He didn't catch any of his three targets in the Week 9 game against Detroit.



Email: jrogers@detroitfootball.net

X: Justin_Rogers

Bluesky: Justin-Rogers

[whatever_gong82]

What’s at stake for the Lions in their NFC North showdown against the Packers


By Colton Pouncy
December 5, 2024

Paywall article.


ALLEN PARK, Mich. — It would be just the Detroit Lions’ luck that, amid a 10-game winning streak and their best start in franchise history, they have little to no breathing room or margin for error.

Welcome to life at the top.


The Lions find themselves in the middle of a heavyweight divisional race, perhaps one of the greatest we’ve ever seen, as they prepare to host the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Per research by The Athletic’s Mike Sando, the 2024 NFC North is the most dominant division since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger. The 2024 NFC North ranks first in PPG margin in non-division games (9.36) and second in win rate (.778) through the first 13 weeks of a season since 1970. The division’s top three teams are the 11-1 Lions, the 10-2 Vikings and the 9-3 Packers. It’s an incredibly tough division that has a chance to go down to the wire in the final five weeks.



Detroit also is clinging to a one-game lead for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) have won eight games in a row after a 2-2 start. Running back Saquon Barkley looks like an MVP candidate, proving that running backs matter when teams maximize their skill set.

The Eagles have talent at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end and one of the best offensive lines in football. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit allows the fewest yards per game in the league at just 282.8. They have the look of a complete team, and end the year with the NFL’s 10th-easiest schedule. The Lions, meanwhile, face the third-toughest schedule — and it certainly doesn’t help that their defense is limping into December.


But races like this are why players play the game and coaches coach. These are the moments that matter.


“I think always for me, you’re always — your head’s down and you’re just going,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said when asked if there’s an added sense of urgency when the calendar hits December. “And players are no different. You just worry about what’s right in front of you. … I think once you hit December, it’s hard not to start to begin to look up a little bit, and I mean that in a good way. You can start to smell the playoffs a little bit, you can start to see what’s out in front of you, what’s at stake. You know you’re well within the race and I think it just gives you a little bit of, I don’t know man, excitement. It’s exciting and it’s competitive and it’s just — I mean, this is why you’re in this business.”

The Packers are first up in what will be a defining final stretch for the Lions. Since the Detroit-Green Bay showdown in Week 9, the Packers have won three in a row, with victories over the Bears, 49ers and Dolphins. At 9-3, Green Bay is third in the NFC North and currently slotted as the NFC’s No. 6 seed. However, why settle for sixth?


The Packers have an outside shot at the division if they win out and the Lions finish 2-3. They’re also playing for seeding. If the season ended today, the No. 7 seed Commanders would head to Philadelphia to face the Eagles — one of the hottest teams in football. The Packers, at No. 6, would head to Seattle to face the 7-5 Seahawks. The No. 5 seed Vikings would play the 6-6 Falcons.

Seeding matters. The Packers have plenty to play for, starting Thursday night.


“They’re playing well and they were playing well when we came in to play them at their place,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said this week. “It’s a good defense, they’re well-coached, they do a lot of really good things, the backend’s good, the linebackers are good, the front four is good, they’re good on every level and we know what we’ve got to take care of.”


After Green Bay, the Lions will host the Buffalo Bills (10-2). Unlike the Lions, the Bills have already clinched their division. They secured their fifth-straight AFC East title with a win over the 49ers last Sunday. It’s one less thing for them to worry about as the regular season winds down. But don’t expect the Bills to take their foot off the gas pedal. They’re within striking distance of a first-round bye and will head to Ford Field next weekend looking to check off another box.

After Buffalo, the Lions will head to Chicago to face a Bears team (4-8) that isn’t as bad as its record suggests and will be looking to finish strong under interim coach Thomas Brown. Then Detroit travels to San Francisco for a rematch of the 2024 NFC Championship Game vs. a 49ers team still in the playoff hunt, before wrapping up the regular season at home against the Vikings in Week 18.


Given where the Lions are, and what’s happening around them, Thursday’s contest is shaping up to be crucial. If the Lions lose to the Packers and the Vikings beat the Falcons on Sunday, Detroit and Minnesota would be tied for first in the NFC North at 11-2. After that, say both teams headed into Week 18 at 14-2 apiece. It would set up a winner-take-all finale for the division in Detroit.

Essentially, if the Lions lose to Green Bay, Minnesota could win out and secure an NFC North title. They’ll finish with the Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Packers and Lions. Tough to do, but you want to be able to rely on yourselves at this point in the calendar — not other teams for help. A Detroit loss to Green Bay would open that door for Minnesota.


But if the Lions beat the Packers? That would give them breathing room in the NFC North. The Lions could finish 4-1 with a loss to the Vikings, and the Vikings could finish a perfect 5-0. The Lions would still win the NFC North.

How about the race for the No. 1 seed? If the Lions lose to the Packers, their chances of winning the NFC would drop from 50 percent, as things currently stand, to just 30 percent, per projections by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. They would no longer control their NFC path.


The Lions could lose to the Packers, win their final four games and still finish as the No. 2 seed if the Eagles win out. Of course, winning out would mean the Eagles would end the season on a 13-game winning streak. That feels unlikely, even with a lighter schedule. But you can’t rule it out. Philadelphia will close the season out with the Panthers, Steelers, Commanders, Cowboys and Giants. All winnable games.

However, let’s say the Lions beat the Packers, lose one of their next four games (Bills, Bears, 49ers, Vikings) and the Eagles close the year 5-0. In that scenario, both teams would finish 15-2, but the Lions would get the nod via tiebreakers. That’s how much this Green Bay game means to the playoff race.


The Lions will get a taste of playoff football this month, before the playoffs begin. Right now, the goal is to set themselves up for January and beyond. The Lions will tell you they’re prepared to go anywhere and face anyone, but they have a golden opportunity to ensure that all roads lead through Detroit. If they take care of business, they’ll earn some much-needed rest with a bye and could host two playoff games at Ford Field leading up to the Super Bowl.

“The race is on,” Campbell said. “This is top-tier stuff and it’s for the best of the best. … This thing’s going to go down to the wire, and we just have to worry about winning the one in front of us.”


Colton Pouncy is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Detroit Lions. He previously covered Michigan State football and basketball for the company, and covered sports for The Tennessean in Nashville prior to joining The Athletic. Follow Colton on Twitter @colton_pouncy

[Sanders Fan]

Despite all the injuries I feel cautiously optimistic about tonight. I’m really glad to see Davis back.