Game WEEK: Jax at Lions

[Mainevent]

Brian Thomas Jr. is a stud. Jags also have some good weapons with Engram and the running backs. But their offense was a mess even with QB Jesus.

Their defense doesn’t have a lot of playmakers. But they played the Vikings tough last week, so who knows.

Lets get a nice workman like win out of this and hope for no injuries.

[Blue Lagoon58]

That's the main thing, get by healthy

[whatever_gong82]

Is there any way Lions could lose to Jaguars?

Pride of Detroit Direct
by Jeremy Reisman


The Detroit Lions are huge favorites this week, but this is the NFL and I truly believe that any team can beat any other team on a random Sunday afternoon. After all, the Jacksonville Jaguars were beating the Minnesota Vikings for nearly the entire game last week, only giving up the lead with 7:14 left.

So I’m going to explore how the Lions could possibly lose this game, then explain why that probably won’t happen.

Later, I catch up with Lions rookie guard Christian Mahogany to see where his development is at and debate who the best Spider-Man is.



Every way the Lions could lose to the Jaguars… and why it won’t happen


This column is going to feel like I’m leaning into my Wet Blanket persona, but I don’t think anyone would find it very interesting if I filled this newsletter with the hundreds of reasons the Lions will beat the Jaguars. So let’s, instead, examine ways Sunday’s game could go sideways, and the dig into the likelihood of that happening.

So here are several ways the Lions could lose despite being two-touchdown favorites over the Jaguars.


The Jaguars use the Texans’ defensive game plan


Houston was able to control most of Sunday night’s game by holding Detroit’s running game in check while producing pressure without blitzing. While that is certainly easier said than done, the Jaguars have the pieces to do exactly that. The Jaguars run defense ranks 12th in DVOA, 10th in yards per cary allowed, and 10th in success rate.


As for pass rush, like the Texans against the Lions, they don’t like to blitz. Their blitz rate is actually lowest in the NFL at 13.8%. And they have two very capable pass rushers on the edge in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Hines-Allen ranks seventh in PFF pressures (43) while Walker is 19th (35). If they can create consistent pressure while dropping seven into coverage, it could give the Lions serious trouble.

Why it won't happen: First of all, while the Jaguars run defense is above average, it’s not on the level of the Texans, who rank second in DVOA and sixth in success rate. That’s a whole level above the Jaguars. Additionally, while the Jaguars have two decent pass rushers, their team pass rush rate is very below average (29.7%, 29th). They’re 32nd in pass rush win rate as a team, and 22nd in PFF pass rush grade. Oh, and Taylor Decker is expected to be back at left tackle.


Win the turnover battle


Last week, Jared Goff threw five interceptions, and it left the Lions offense looking lifeless for nearly the entire game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense forced three interceptions against the Vikings last week. If they can reproduce those results this week, they’ll hang with the Lions much longer than they should.


And I think it’s worth considering that it could happen. Listen to how offensive coordinator Ben Johnson talked about the Jaguars secondary when I asked them how Jacksonville managed to hold the Vikings out of the end zone all game last week.

“I think you’re seeing the coverage start to tighten up. This is an aggressive, press defense, whether they're in single-high or two-high,” Johnson said. “They like to get up in your grill and challenge. They had some coverage breakdowns early in the year, you probably saw in the Miami game. Miami got half of their yardage off of two plays. So, they’ve given up some explosives, they limited that to a larger degree last week, and they played good red zone defense and held them to a field goal.”


Tight, physical coverage could give Detroit’s receiving corps trouble. If there’s a way to get Jameson Williams off his game, it’s press coverage. The same can be said for Amon-Ra St. Brown.


Why it won’t happen: Last week was an outlier for both teams. Goff went into the week with only four interceptions for the entire season. The Jaguars defense had produced just two interceptions all season prior to their three-interception game against the Vikings. Even if Goff struggles this week, it isn’t likely to be on the level it was last week.


Additionally, the Jaguars secondary plays a heavy amount of man-to-man defense. This year, Goff’s has absolutely torn apart man-coverage (per FTN Fantasy).


man: 65-of-94 for 856 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INTs, 128.4 passer rating

zone: 107-of-145 for 1,223 yards, 4 TDs, 7 INTs, 87.8 passer rating


Jaguars could take advantage of injured secondary


While I’m not exactly scared of Mac Jones this week, I don’t love the fact that Carlton Davis popped up on the injury report Thursday with a hand injury. At the time of writing this, I don’t have any information on the injury, but if he misses the game, it’ll be a pretty big blow to the defense. Davis has been outstanding since the bye week, and he’s helped limit the damage from No.1 receivers. Per DVOA, the Lions have the sixth-best pass defense against No. 1 receivers, but they drop to 15th against WR2s. If Terrion Arnold has to jump up to WR1 duties, he could struggle.


Meanwhile, Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is looking more and more like a true WR1. He’s on pace for 1,032 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He’s particularly dangerous on deep shots, ranking fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (311) on passes at least 20 yards downfield.

Why it won’t happen: Mac Jones, plain and simple. Jones was awful last week and he’s particularly bad down the field–where Thomas’ strength lies.



Jones checks it down all the time, which means the Jaguars need long, methodical drives to succeed. That plays into the Lions’ strengths, as they often just cede the underneath stuff knowing the offense will eventually make a mistake–which Detroit quickly capitalizes on.

For his entire career, Jones is terrible at the deep ball. Here’s his EPA for each season on deep passes, along with his subsequent ranking compared to the rest of the NFL.


2023: -0.43 EPA/dropback, 31st out of 32
2022: +0.23 EPA/dropback, 23rd out of 33
2021: +0.30 EPA/dropback, 19th out of 31


He’s never been in the top half of the league, and he’s progressively getting worse.

Meanwhile, the Lions defense currently ranks sixth in EPA/pass on deep shots (-0.17), allowing a league-low 1.2 yards of separation per play. So if/when Jones is finally forced to push the ball downfield, bad things are very likely to happen to him.

…aaaaaaaand that’s all I got. I don’t see how the Jaguars could even come close to winning any other matchups. So, yeah. It’s hard to see any realistic chance of an upset this week, but you never know.

 

1-on-1 conversation with rookie OL Christian Mahogany

This week, I wanted to catch up with Christian Mahogany, because it’s hard for us to see any progress made by rookies once the season begins. Mahogany could very well be an important piece of the offensive line moving forward, so I wanted some clarity on how his rookie journey is going. Enjoy!

Jeremy: You’ve been practicing for about a month now, does it feel like you have your sea legs now?


Mahogany: “Yeah, I feel good. I feel definitely better than when I first got out there, like the first day. Coach Campbell, coach Fraley, coach Johnson, they’ve said, ‘Just keep getting better everyday,’ and I feel like I’ve been trying to do that to the best of my abilities.”

Jeremy: How tricky is it to improve as an OL when you’re only getting padded practices every now and then vs. almost all the time in training camp?


Mahogany: “Whenever we put on the pads, I just try to be as physical as possible. It’s different from college. In college, you get two padded days a week. In the NFL, you get maybe one if you’re lucky. Just the mental side of it is way more than college. It’s just being able to do it on Sunday, obviously, and let that translate from the week. You might not get (practice) in pads, but you still have to be ready to play in pads. So, just being prepared in that aspect. I feel good in that regard, the mental side of it is definitely (improved).”

Jeremy: The staff made a big decision on you, activating you from the Physically Unable to Perform list and putting you on the 53-man roster. What did that mean to you?


Mahogany: “Obviously, it could have went the other way. I’m glad it didn’t. I just tried to do what they told me, like I said in the first question: just improve in any way. I just keep on improving every week. Now, I’m on the 53, and my expectation is to try and get on the field.”

Jeremy: Did you get any specific feedback when they made that decision?

Mahogany: “Not really. My agent just called me, Mr. (Ray) Agnew called me. They told me I was going to be on the 53-man roster that Tuesday morning. That’s just what it was. It was another day for me. I was excited, my family was more excited than maybe I was, because, to me, it’s something that I wanted to do and something that was a goal for myself. So that’s what it was for me.”


Jeremy: Who in the family was most excited?

Mahogany: “My mom. My mom was excited, my girlfriend was excited. Family, aunts, uncles, friends. Everyone was excited, but it was just what I wanted to do, so I had to do it.”


Jeremy: What can you tell me about OL coach Hank Fraley?


Mahogany: “I’ve had a lot of good coaches. I think Hank’s right up there. Him and my college coach, coach (Matt) Applebaum are very similar in their techniques and calls that we have here. So it’s kind of a blessing, selfishly for myself, that they’re so similar. And he’s a player, he played the game. It’s not somebody who’s never played. So you’re getting his insight, it definitely means a lot more for me personally. I think hearing it from someone who has played in this league, it definitely resonates with you more, because he’s been there. So I would say Hank’s right up there with coach Applebaum for me. He’s a great person, not just a coach. He’s a good person to talk about things outside of football, as well. I definitely appreciate that about him.”

Jeremy: Two fun ones to end on: Build your ideal 3-course meal: appetizer, entree, dessert


Mahogany: “Appetizer, I would definitely go spinach artichoke dip. Maybe some nachos and beef for an appetizer, or jalapeno poppers and wings. For a dinner main course, I’d probably go steak and lobster. Yeah, a little surf and turf with some scallops. Then I’ll go some fettucini alfredo on the side. Dessert, I do like ice cream, but I’ll probably go cheesecake from Cheesecake Factory.”

Jeremy: Any specific flavor?

Mahogany: “Oreo.”


Jeremy: I overheard you talking about superhero movies. Which one is your favorite?

Mahogany: “My favorite superhero is Spider-Man.”

Jeremy: Any particular movie? Mahogany: “I love all of them. We were just arguing over who is the best Spider-Man. Obviously, everyone is going to say Tobey (Maguire) is the best Spider-Man. That’s just nostalgia. I think he’s a really good Spider-Man, but Tom (Holland), I think Tom is probably up there now. But I like all of the movies. I like “Spider-Man 3” the best of Tobey’s, because of the Venom suit. I rewatched that over the summer while I was home. So I’ll say “Spider-Man 3.”


VIDEO: Lions vs. Jaguars First Byte preview with JP Acosta

 

[Dan V]

OK, let’s get this thread Hoppen the most important thing about this game is obviously the Lions uniforms!

They have announced that they’re wearing the traditional blue shirts. Here’s the question guys (and girls)

What will be the pants color and what color do you prefer ?
Choices
1. Blue 2 Silver 3. White

I will start.

They will probably go Blue( blueberries ) but I prefer silver ( (traditional)

[dsred]

If you listen to the coaches and players this week, they're really drilling down on offensive consistency. I expect the offense to be in a groove all game, Jax pass defense might be the worst in the league. Mac Jones, yeah, no. Something like 34-13 sounds about right.

Good call. According to PFF, Jags Pass D is, in fact, 32nd DVOA in the league.

[DanO]

OK, let’s get this thread Hoppen the most important thing about this game is obviously the Lions uniforms!

They have announced that they’re wearing the traditional blue shirts. Here’s the question guys (and girls)

What will be the pants color and what color do you prefer ?
Choices
1. Blue 2 Silver 3. White

I will start.

They will probably go Blue( blueberries ) but I prefer silver ( (traditional)

I'd have to see them but probably silver.

[chemiclord]

I strongly suspect that they will continue to wear monochrome as long as they are winning. It's a superstition thing at this point.

[whatever_gong82]

Courtesy of PFF.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions (-13)

Storyline of the game: Lions rolling into the back half of the season

After its performance on Sunday night, there are questions if anyone can stop Detroit right now. Even in a game in which Jared Goff threw five interceptions, Dan Campbell’s guys rallied from down 16 to put kicker Jake Bates into position to nail a game-winning 52-yard field goal, which extended this team’s seven-game win-streak.


Conversely, an already tumultuous season for the Jags has gotten more perilous with the news that Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder injury may be severe enough for him to miss extended time. That would be a blow to an already struggling offense, as Lawrence has generated the fourth-highest passing grade in the NFL since Week 5.


Matchups to watch: Jaguars QB Mac Jones vs. Lions S Kerby Joseph

In light of Lawrence’s injury, Doug Pederson has tabbed Mac Jones to start under center for the second straight week. In his start against the Vikings, Jones totaled just 111 passing yards to go with a pair of turnover-worthy plays, including a late interception that ultimately sealed defeat. The former first-round pick finished with just a 55.0 PFF passing grade.

Jones should tread lightly coming up against Kerby Joseph and this Lions defense. Joseph lays claim the highest coverage grade (90.8) at the safety position, a credit to his five interceptions and 31.6 passer rating allowed into his coverage.


Additional news:

Lions TE Sam LaPorta (shoulder) may miss this week. -whatever_gong82 note: He will miss tomorrow's game.
Jags QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) may miss rest of the season with injury.


PFF rankings prior to 11-17-24 games.jpg

[whatever_gong82]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/11/16/detroit-lions-add-two-to-roster-for-jacksonville-jaguars-game-brian-branch-fined-again/76366177007/

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/11/16/one-step-at-a-time-lions-aidan-hutchinson-posts-rehab-video-on-social-media/76362466007/

[whatever_gong82]

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/11/17/detroit-lions-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-predictions/76350634007/

[Mainevent]

Get out ahead early, clean up the pass pro, control and shorten the game with the running backs and cruise. Get out with a comfortable win and no injuries. That’s what I’d like to see - 28-10 or 31-14, something like that.

[wcfwtf]

If the Lions make the Superbowl I don’t believe they will be allowed to wear an alternate jersey.
Since they would be the home team I hope they don’t belittle that a pant color helps or hinders themselves in anyway of winning a football game.
They don’t need that kind of thinking to stumble them.

[Marko69]

If the Lions make the Superbowl I don’t believe they will be allowed to wear an alternate jersey.
Since they would be the home team I hope they don’t belittle that a pant color helps or hinders themselves in anyway of winning a football game.
They don’t need that kind of thinking to stumble them.

Would normally agree......, but when Hibernian played a HUGE cup semi final in their yellow kit ......, FUCK, disaster. A stadium full of green......, and they rock up in yellow. Nightmare

[chemiclord]

If the Lions make the Superbowl I don’t believe they will be allowed to wear an alternate jersey.
Since they would be the home team I hope they don’t belittle that a pant color helps or hinders themselves in anyway of winning a football game.
They don’t need that kind of thinking to stumble them.

I really don't think it matters that much to the Lions. I suspect it's just a silly superstition that they are having fun with right now.

[Fraquar]

Would normally agree......, but when Hibernian played a HUGE cup semi final in their yellow kit ......, FUCK, disaster. A stadium full of green......, and they rock up in yellow. Nightmare

How in holy hell did the Hibernians not get the message they were rocking Yellow?
Don't tell me the club kept it a secret - so the club supporters couldn't get the message out.
Then again, might have had the whole stadium smelling of mustard.