NFL offseasons simulations and NFL Mock Draft games

[El Axe]

I love how the Bears picked 2 first round QBs. Its definitely an interesting strategy

That reminds me of when the Redskins drafted two QBs in 2012 -- RGIII & Cousins -- and Cousins ended up the better player.

I did a multi-user draft and the guy drafting the Bears selected Williams with pick #1 and then in the second round selected Penix just before the Vikings -- the Vikings guy hadn't drafted a QB yet, so he was completely screwed since the top 6 had come off the board. The Vikings player ended up taking Spencer Rattler. It was hilarious watching the Vikings player melt down. The Bears player totally did it to mess with him and his cheesy strategy.

In another multi-user draft, the Bears player thought he'd get cute and trade down to pick #5 only to watch the Cardinals player take the 4th QB at #4, leaving him with the second tier of QBs.

The reason people make the spite picks is because we're there to have a "realistic" draft. When players game the system, it screws up the draft for everyone else.

[froot loops]

It wasn't the first time for Washington, in 94 the picked Heath Shuler with the 3rd pick and Gus Frerotte with the 197th pick.

[Whitley]

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/user-mock-drafts/2024/user-mock-2683792

[chemiclord]

That reminds me of when the Redskins drafted two QBs in 2012 -- RGIII & Cousins -- and Cousins ended up the better player.

I did a multi-user draft and the guy drafting the Bears selected Williams with pick #1 and then in the second round selected Penix just before the Vikings -- the Vikings guy hadn't drafted a QB yet, so he was completely screwed since the top 6 had come off the board. The Vikings player ended up taking Spencer Rattler. It was hilarious watching the Vikings player melt down. The Bears player totally did it to mess with him and his cheesy strategy.

In another multi-user draft, the Bears player thought he'd get cute and trade down to pick #5 only to watch the Cardinals player take the 4th QB at #4, leaving him with the second tier of QBs.

The reason people make the spite picks is because we're there to have a "realistic" draft. When players game the system, it screws up the draft for everyone else.

Sad thing is, RG3 came into the league on fire. It's hard to say how he would have looked after teams got some tape on him, but he never got the chance thanks to coaches that pretty much could not have destroyed him more maliciously than if they had been trying to do so.

[Mainevent]

ESPN has a mock draft simulator now, so I figured what the hell and ran one. When pick 29 rolled around I had a wealth of options to choose from that aren't often around - Latu, Mitchell, DeJean, Newton and a couple of others. I was too lazy to try and work a trade down so I went with Latu and then ended up with a monster of a draft that I would sign up for right now if I could.

29. Latu DE
61. Suamtaia, OT/OG
73. Andru Phillips CB
164. Cornelius Johnson WR
201. Trey Taylor S (that Reddit dude is right on this guy, seems like perfect fit for the Lions)
205. Tip Reiman TE
249. Logan Lee, DT

[El Axe]

No kidding, sign me up for that all day long. I think the ESPN simulator is drunk, though, lol. Latu or Mitchell at 29 and Suamataia at 61 is a pipe dream.

I also like Lee as a late-round pickup, seems in the Cominsky mould

[Cody_Russell]

Another mainstream mock with the Lions trading. This time, up:

Curious to see what goofy news we see circulate this week. It’s that time of year. Last year, it was Will Levis #2 overall rumors being red hot.

[Mainevent]

That trade up for Mitchell is the one Froot has been riding for awhile. Value isn't bad for that big of a jump, I'm just not a big fan of those types of moves.

But overall that draft is weird for the Lions - I thought it was maybe some automated picking in the later rounds, but it seems they had analysts doing it. It's a 7th round mock draft, so whatever, but they have the Lions taking two RBs, two Michigan OL (Zinter and Jones) and Brendan Rice in the 3rd round.

[El Axe]

That trade up for Mitchell is the one Froot has been riding for awhile. Value isn't bad for that big of a jump, I'm just not a big fan of those types of moves.

But overall that draft is weird for the Lions - I thought it was maybe some automated picking in the later rounds, but it seems they had analysts doing it. It's a 7th round mock draft, so whatever, but they have the Lions taking two RBs, two Michigan OL (Zinter and Jones) and Brendan Rice in the 3rd round.

The first trade up to get Mitchell and then the selection of Zinter at 115 was good and I was on board. The Brendan Rice pick was meh, but okay.

Then the analyst goes and trades up to select a RB in round 5. I mean, seriously? I suppose if you really love the player. Maybe this guy really loves USC players or something. Drafting another RB in the 7th...yikes

edit: Just realized he selected Rice over McMillan, Walker, Burton, Corley, Cowing, Wilson & Baker. He must really love USC players.

[whatever_gong82]

Paywall The Athletic Detroit Lions mock draft from earlier today:

Lions 7-round NFL mock draft: Trades help Detroit add impact players on offense early


By Colton Pouncy
Apr 22, 2024



It’s finally NFL Draft week in Detroit, and come Thursday, the Lions will welcome a new batch of prospects hoping to add to a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

But before the festivities get going and Lions GM Brad Holmes starts slamming tables in excitement, it’s time for our final seven-round Lions mock draft of the 2024 cycle. Rejoice.



In this mock draft, the Lions address a number of future needs, adding impact players at guard, wide receiver and cornerback, a high-upside edge, the best kicker in the class and some Day 3 depth.

Let’s discuss.



Round 2, No. 36 overall: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona

Trade: Lions trade pick Nos. 29 and 73 to the Washington Commanders for Nos. 36, 67 and 100.


One of the most popular questions Holmes has been asked this offseason is whether the Lions would consider a trade that would take them out of the first round. If Holmes agreed to one, that would mean Lions fans at the draft Thursday night would not get to see them make a pick.



“Look, we have to do the right thing for the organization,” Holmes said last Thursday. “If it makes sense and it lines up and it’s the right thing to do, then we have to do the right thing. Say that happens where the fans have been waiting there all night for this pick and we get an offer that we can’t really turn down and makes sense, we’ve got to do the right thing and hopefully our fans will forgive us.”

Here, the Commanders chose to come up from early in the second round. NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein tweeted he’d be “pretty shocked” if the Commanders don’t try to package picks for a move back into the first. This trade would accomplish that for Washington, while allowing Detroit to remain high in the second round, move up six spots in the third and add a fourth-rounder in the process.



With the 36th pick, the Lions address a future need along the offensive line with a versatile player in Morgan. The Arizona product projects as a guard/tackle at the next level, making him a high-upside backup in the event of an injury and a flexible piece for the future. He’d be afforded time to learn behind some excellent veterans until there’s an opening in the starting lineup. During his pre-draft news conference, Holmes said the offensive line is where the game is won. The Lions could win a lot of games with Morgan.

Note: The other scenario that received serious consideration here was a trade-up for UCLA edge Laiatu Latu. An exciting prospect and the most refined pass rusher in the class. But we stuck to the board, received a quality trade-down offer and struck.

Round 2, No. 36 overall: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona

Trade: Lions trade pick Nos. 29 and 73 to the Washington Commanders for Nos. 36, 67 and 100.


One of the most popular questions Holmes has been asked this offseason is whether the Lions would consider a trade that would take them out of the first round. If Holmes agreed to one, that would mean Lions fans at the draft Thursday night would not get to see them make a pick.



“Look, we have to do the right thing for the organization,” Holmes said last Thursday. “If it makes sense and it lines up and it’s the right thing to do, then we have to do the right thing. Say that happens where the fans have been waiting there all night for this pick and we get an offer that we can’t really turn down and makes sense, we’ve got to do the right thing and hopefully our fans will forgive us.”

Here, the Commanders chose to come up from early in the second round. NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein tweeted he’d be “pretty shocked” if the Commanders don’t try to package picks for a move back into the first. This trade would accomplish that for Washington, while allowing Detroit to remain high in the second round, move up six spots in the third and add a fourth-rounder in the process.



With the 36th pick, the Lions address a future need along the offensive line with a versatile player in Morgan. The Arizona product projects as a guard/tackle at the next level, making him a high-upside backup in the event of an injury and a flexible piece for the future. He’d be afforded time to learn behind some excellent veterans until there’s an opening in the starting lineup. During his pre-draft news conference, Holmes said the offensive line is where the game is won. The Lions could win a lot of games with Morgan.

Note: The other scenario that received serious consideration here was a trade-up for UCLA edge Laiatu Latu. An exciting prospect and the most refined pass rusher in the class. But we stuck to the board, received a quality trade-down offer and struck.

Round 3, No. 67: Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky

The Commanders trade helped the Lions move up six spots from No. 73, getting this pick to No. 67. After going offense-offense with the first two picks, the Lions turn their attention to defense by selecting Phillips. The Lions hosted Phillips, viewed as a feisty cornerback prospect who loves football, on a top-30 visit earlier this month. While Phillips lacks ideal length, he offers inside-out versatility, he’s aggressive in the run game (though his technique needs work) and has the competitive mindset to play the position. He’s No. 61 on Brugler’s top 100, so the Lions would be getting some value here. It feels like he’s rising at this stage of the process.

The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner recently wrote about Phillips. Worth your time.


Round 4, No. 120: Jalyx Hunt, edge, Houston Christian

Hunt is an exciting prospect from a small school in Houston Christian. Physically, his toolbox has everything you need. He’s nearly 6-foot-4, has 34 3/8-inch arms, a 37 1/2-inch vertical and 4.64 speed at 252 pounds. His relative athletic score of 9.22 highlights the sort of athletic package we’re talking about. A former safety at Cornell who switched to edge in college, Hunt has untapped potential as a pass-rusher and NFL teams must believe they can coach him up. With the Lions, he’d be afforded time to develop and watch Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport, adding to a rotation that includes Josh Paschal and James Houston. That’s a good mix of pass rushers, and in this range, Hunt is a lottery ticket.

Round 5, No. 164: Will Reichard, K, Alabama

Reichard is viewed as the top kicker in the class, with Brugler giving him a fifth-round grade. He was absolutely money at Alabama, going 22-of-25 and 5-of-5 from 50-plus in his final year. The Lions don’t have many glaring needs, but they have yet to add competition for Michael Badgley, who lacks the desired range for the position. They can afford to draft a kicker in this range, and if he hits, they could have their guy for the next 15 years.


Round 6, No. 205: Sione Vaki, S/RB, Utah

Vaki is an intriguing prospect, given his background. He delayed the start of his collegiate career to do a mission with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. When he finally joined Utah’s roster, he immediately contributed at safety, before developing into a two-way prospect as a running back. This past season, Vaki totaled 51 tackles and eight tackles for a loss, while recording 520 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns. He feels like he could be an ace special teamer at the next level, similar to C.J. Moore when he was in Detroit, and he might be able to provide some defensive snaps as a depth piece. He’s a football player, as Holmes likes to call it.


Round 7, No. 249: Khristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa

The Lions love the East-West Shrine Bowl, and Boyd showed out there. Though he lacks length, Boyd’s strength (38 bench reps) shows up on tape. He can eat up space and offers some untapped pass-rush upside. The Lions brought him in for a top-30 visit, so they’re familiar with his makeup. That could be enough to make him a late-round option for the team, adding interior depth behind Alim McNeill and DJ Reader.


Colton Pouncy is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Detroit Lions. He previously covered Michigan State football and basketball for the company, and covered sports for The Tennessean in Nashville prior to joining The Athletic. Follow Colton on Twitter @colton_pouncy

[whatever_gong82]

Paywall NFL Draft article from today's Freep.

Predicting how Detroit Lions spend their NFL draft picks in trade up, trade down scenarios


Dave Birkett
Detroit Free Press




Brad Holmes explained at his annual pre-draft news conference this week what he’d need to both trade up and trade down in the first round of Thursday’s 2024 NFL draft.

The Detroit Lions would be tempted to trade up from Pick No. 29, Holmes said, for a player who’s the right pick and the right fit at the right price. They’d go down, Holmes said, if they’re staring at a group of players who are ranked in a cluster on their board and the offer is good enough that it overwhelms any conviction they have for a specific player at that point in the draft.


“I always kind of go back to … don’t spend a lot of time arguing going to Grand Cayman or Turks and Caicos,” Holmes said. “You’re not going to be mad either way. So when you’re happy with the decision of, ‘If we come away with any of these guys,’ you kind of do the math. You’re like, ‘OK, if we trade back here, some of these guys will be left, and we’ll be happy and we’re going to get some capital.’

“(But if) you go back to that conviction conversation, ‘No, this is that guy that we have been convicted on. We’re not moving and we’re just going to stay put.’ And whatever extra capital you get on the back end, it’s really not worth it.”


Every year I try and predict how different scenarios could influence the way the Lions might use their picks in the first three rounds of the draft. This year, I added the trade element to the mix. At No. 29, the Lions could move up to catch a falling star on their board or move down and accumulate more draft capital for Days 2-3.

Here’s a look at three scenarios:


Trade up

First round: No. 19 pick: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama. Second round: No. 61 pick: DE Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan.



If the Lions want to go big-game hunting in the draft, my guess is they’d move up for a defensive player who slips out of the top 15. They don’t have the ammunition to get into the top half of the first round without including both Day 2 picks or mortgaging future assets, neither of which seems appealing. But adding a player like Arnold, Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell or Florida State pass rusher Jared Verse would be a huge get for the roster.

Arnold ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, so maybe he lingers on the board longer than expected. He plays faster than his time speed because of his instincts, and he had five interceptions last year — that would be appealing to a Lions secondary that needs more playmakers.



The price to move up to Pick 19 (with a Rams team Brad Holmes knows well) is likely the Lions’ third-round pick (from Minnesota), which would leave the Lions without picks in Rounds 3 and 4. That’s not ideal, but the Rams could slide the Lions a fifth-rounder (No. 154) in return.

Kneeland is one of the better pass rushers in the class, though he did not put up big numbers at Western Michigan. The Lions will have to wait till Day 3 to fill needs at receiver and on the interior line, but Holmes chases talent over need first.


Trade down

Second round: No. 44: CB Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri; No. 61: DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon. Third round: No. 73: WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington; No. 77: OL Zak Zinter, Michigan.

I like Rakestraw as a fit for the Lions at 29, but he battled injuries and had limited ball production at Missouri, so I could see him sliding to Round 2. In this scenario, the Lions still get one of the top cornerbacks on their board — and gain an extra third-round pick to deal down from No. 29 with a Las Vegas Raiders team that might want to move up to take a quarterback.



With Rakestraw in the fold, the Lions can spend the rest of a busy Day 2 filling other holes. Holmes has an affinity for drafting second- and third-round defensive linemen — Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal, Brodric Martin — and Dorlus is one of the most well-rounded tackles in a mostly underwhelming class.

In Round 3, the Lions grab a productive deep ball receiver in Polk who can win contested catches downfield, and a projectable interior lineman in Zinter who won’t need to play immediately coming off a major knee injury, but has starter potential down the road.


Sit tight

First round: No. 29: OL Zach Frazier, West Virginia. Second round: No. 61: WR Roman Wilson, Michigan. Third round: No. 73: CB Dru Phillips, Kentucky.

The Lions should have plenty of good options if they stand pat at 29, including at some of their biggest positions of need: Offensive line, cornerback and receiver. I mocked Frazier to the Lions this week both because of Holmes’ desire to build through the trenches, where the Lions have long-term needs on the offensive line, and because Frazier feels like a Lions fit. He’s a four-year starter with experience at guard and center who doesn’t mind pulverizing his opponents into the ground.



Round 2 should be fertile ground for receivers, where Wilson is quietly one of the top prospects at the position. He probably won’t go as high as Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin or Xavier Worthy, but he’s a reliable deep threat who would be a nice complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in the Lions’ receiving corps.

The Lions miss out on the draft’s top defensive linemen in this scenario, but add a physical corner in Phillips who has excellent burst — his 11 feet, 3-inch broad jump was fourth best at the combine — but only one year of starting experience.


Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on X and Instagram at @davebirkett.

[Mainevent]

That Athletic draft might be my favorite of the latest round of mocks, and maybe of all the mocks so far this year - Jordan Morgan, Keon Coleman, Andru Philips, Jalyx Hunt, Will Reichard, Sione Vaki and Khrisitan Boyd is a nice haul.

Morgan is the guy that I think is the best OL pick if the plan is to move on from Decker after next year, as he can assume LT duties rather than having to flip Penei over if they don't want.

[El Axe]

Whatever_gong82, thank you for all of these articles. The Athletic Draft was unfortunately slightly mis-copied

This was missing -- an important trade-up

Round 2, No. 53: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State


Trade: Lions trade Nos. 61, 100 and 201 to the Philadelphia Eagles for Nos. 53 and 120.

After trading down in the second, the Lions use capital acquired to move up in the second round for a potential impact starter. This is the benefit of a trade down. After starting the weekend with pick Nos. 29 and 61, the Lions essentially swapped those for 36 and 53. That could be the sweet spot in a draft like this. Here, the Lions send their second-round pick (No. 61), the fourth-rounder acquired from the Commanders (No. 100) and pick No. 201 (via the Carlton Davis III trade) to the Eagles in exchange for Nos. 54 and 120. It allows the Lions to move up eight spots, while keeping a fourth-rounder in No. 120.

The Lions have been doing their homework on wide receivers, and while it’s unclear which flavor they’re looking for, Coleman is a realistic option in this range on Day 2. Coleman is No. 37 on Dane Brugler’s big board, but could be available later in the second round. While he lacks top-end speed, Coleman’s in-game speed is better than his 4.61 40 time would suggest. His size, leaping ability and yards after catch potential make him an intriguing prospect in this range for a team looking to develop an X receiver. The idea of adding Coleman to an offense that already features Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should terrify the division, and make Jared Goff a very happy man.

[El Axe]

El Axe's Draft Prediction

It's nearly impossible to predict what Holmes will do -- especially given that it depends on how the draft falls. However, I want to put together a series of scenarios that could play out and at least give insight into picks he might make.

First, it all starts with a plan. What are the Lions' goals with this draft? This is how I see it: Some players can accomplish multiple goals, like Ricky Pearsall is a WR X and Kick Returner.

Primary goals (day 1 & 2):

1. Get an outside CB. Preferably one ready sooner than later
2. Get WR X who can contribute immediately
3. Get depth IOL player to start in 2025, preferably one who also can play either C or OT.
4. Get DE and/or Edge for rotation. preferably future starter

Secondary goals (day 2 & 3):

1. Get Safety/slot depth
2. Get player with punt/kickoff return abilities
3. Get a kicker for competition or better
4. Get RB depth
5. Get OT depth (if IOL player above can't play OT)
6. Get depth player with special teams skills

I did my best to target players that have visited the Lions and who are considered strong fits according to B077 Master List. All of the picks are at least ballpark for where the player is generally ranked. I used the Consensus Big Board from the NFL Mock Draft Database and Dane Brugler's The Beast as my primary reference for this.

Scenario 1a – Trade up to get CB1
Terrion Arnold is consensus mocked to 17 with Mitchell at 15. Rumor is the Lions have had conversations with the Colts at 15. I'm going with 16 being enough for now. Lions trade 29, 61 & Next year's 4^th to Seattle for 16. Seattle doesn't need a CB1 and with a new coaching staff may be looking for more picks.

16 – Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
Lions trade 73 to Arizona for 90 & 104
90 – Devontez Walker, WR, UNC
104 – Mason McCormick, OG/C, South Dakota St
164 – Trey Taylor, S, Air Force
201 – Nelson Ceasar, Edge, Houston
205 – Ainias Smith, WR (KR), Texas A&M
249 – Frank Crum, OT, Wyoming

Scenario 1b – Trade up to get OL
Graham Barton is considered the best IOL in the draft who can also play OT and is considered an elite fit for the Lions. He's not making it to 29, but he should fall to 20. (This is also what a trade might look like if Mitchell or Arnold fall to 20).

Lions trade 29 & 73 to Pittsburgh for 20 & 195.
20 – Graham Barton, C/OG Duke
61 – Max Melton, CB, Rutgers (this would be low for him, but possible)
164 – Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan
195 – Trey Taylor, S, Air Force
201 – Nelson Ceasar, Edge, Houston
205 – Anthony Gould, WR/KR, Oregon St
249 – Will Reichard, K, Alabama

Scenario 2 – Trade back 29 to pick up a 4th-rounder

Lions trade 29 to Arizona for 35 & 104
35 – Kingsley Suamataia, OT/OG, BYU
61 – Adisa Isaac, Edge Penn St
73 – Ricky Pearsall, WR/KR, Florida
104 – Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky
164 – Trey Taylor, S, Air Force
201 – JD Bertrand, LB, ND
205 – Will Reichard, K, Alabama
249 – Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama

Scenario 3 – Trade back 29 and up from 61 to pick up two early 2nds

Lions trade 29, 61, 73, 201 to Washington for 36, 40, 100, 139
36 – Marcus Kneeland, Edge WMU
40 – Max Melton, CB, Rutgers
100 – Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M
139 – Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan
164 – Trey Taylor, S, Air Force
205 – Anthony Gould, WR/KR, Oregon St
249 – Frank Crum, OT, Wyoming

Scenario 4 – Holmes is lying sick in bed and makes no trades:

29 – Jordan Morgan, OT/OG, Arizona
61 – Ricky Pearsall, WR/KR, Florida
73 – Nehemia Pritchett, CB, Auburn
164 – Trey Taylor, S, Air Force
201 – Jaylen Harrell, Edge, Michigan
205 – Aaron Casey, LB, Indiana
249 – Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama

Scenario 5 – El Axe's Eccentric Draft
This draft is built on the idea of what if we pulled off a series of trades using picks 29,61,73,164 & 201 to acquire 5 picks of roughly equal value. You take the total draft capital which is just under 1200 using drafttek, get 5 adjacent picks that sum just under 1200.

69 – Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky (over Cam Hart)
70 – Devontez Walker, WR, UNC (over Ja'lynn Polk)
71 – Dominick Puni, G/C/T, Kansas (over Mason McCormick)
72 – Jonah Ellis, Edge, Utah (Over Mohamed Kamara)
73 – Sione Vaki, S/KR, Utah (over Trey Taylor)
205 – Will Reichard, K, Alabama
249 – Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama

[wcfwtf]

Man and I’m just hoping for a few good players