NFL offseasons simulations and NFL Mock Draft games

[jaadam4]

This draft is really not great at DE or DT. The corners are pretty good but the strength is in the WR class and OL. Specifically the tackle position is super deep. Brad Holmes could find Deckers replacement and land a major future need with that first rounder.

[El Axe]

With Sutton being cut I see CB a more acute need. You have AR who is solid then you have EM coming off a second ACL. And bunch of guys that could be more but are best as depth outside of Davis. Davis and EM are also FAs after the season too

I think we agree. My posts can get convoluted

[whatever_gong82]

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2024/4/2/24118789/detroit-lions-3-round-mock-draft-2024-nfl-draft-brad-holmes-challenge-podcast

[whatever_gong82]

Paywall article from today's Freep.

The mixed history of NFL draft's No. 29 pick: Busts, Hall-of-Famers and a legendary Lion


Dave Birkett
Detroit Free Press



He’s not the most famous 29th pick of the NFL draft, but he might have drawn the most famous instant reaction.

Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were in the middle of a news conference when the New England Patriots took offensive lineman Cole Strange with the 29th pick of the 2022 draft.

“Wow. Strange just went,” a stunned McVay said. “How ‘bout that? And we wasted our time watching him thinking he’d be at 104 maybe.”

Over-drafted or not, Strange started all 17 games at left guard as a rookie, which makes him a rarity among 29th overall picks, which have run the gamut from all-time busts (offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson, the 29th pick of the 2020 draft) to having their bust in the Hall-of-Fame (ex-Minnesota Vikings quarterback Fran Tarkenton, who went 29th overall in 1961) but in recent year, the picks have been mostly journeymen.

There’ve been lovers (Tom Casonova, presumably) and fighters (Marc Colombo, who may or may not have got into it with Joe Judge as a New York Giants assistant), ex-Wolverines (four: Marlin Jackson, Derrick Alexander, Bubba Paris and Jim Mandich) and ex-Spartans (Dimitrius Underwood), and a key member of the Detroit Lions 1952-53 championship teams (Vince Banonis).


The Lions, actually, have employed some of the most successful 29th overall picks.

They acquired Banonis, a Detroit native who played at Catholic Central and the University of Detroit, in a trade with the Chicago Cardinals nearly a decade after that team took him in the fourth round of the 1942 draft, and in 1988 they took Ohio State linebacker Chris Spielman, who remains a key figure with the organization today.



Spielman played eight seasons with the Lions, was runner-up for Defensive Rookie of the Year, made four Pro Bowls and logged more than 1,100 tackles while serving as the face of the defense in the early 1990s. He fell in the draft because of a 4.86-second 40-yard dash, but made up for his comparatively average athleticism with instincts and a work ethic few could match.



“The one thing about Chris Spielman, the intensity of the young man far exceeds some of the players,” then-Lions coach Darryl Rogers told the Free Press after the draft. “That’s an asset. Some guys have that and it carries them over to be a very fine player.”

The Lions have the 29th pick in this year’s draft for the third time in history – they also took running back Garry James at No. 29 in 1986 – and will be looking more for a Spielman-type football player than a Strange-like immediate starter.



Lions coach Dan Campbell said at the NFL’s annual meeting last week his team is approaching this year’s draft similar to the past three drafts, when they held top-10 overall picks. The goal, Campbell said, is to “go for what you believe is going to fit your team, and what you feel like is the best player at the time,” and not worry about need.



“I think what’s unique is those first two, three years, we did have a lot of holes, so it just naturally like, ‘Well, here we go. That worked out,’ cause you’ve got eight holes, your odds are pretty good you’re going to get a guy that’s going to fill a hole,” Campbell said. “Every team in this league’s got warts. I say it all the time, it doesn’t matter how good you are, you’ve got areas that you’re always going to want to improve in. Nobody’s a perfect roster, but we’re the best we’ve been in four years and we feel like, man, we’ve got a lot of those holes filled, and so this kind of feels like the first draft we’re going in and we’re still best player available, but we’ve kind of got places taken care of going into the draft, which is, that’s pretty cool.”


In the past 10 years, teams have taken five defensive linemen, two offensive linemen, one wide receiver, one tight end and one cornerback with the 29th overall pick – mostly positions that project to populate the end of this year’s first round.

The pick has been involved in two draft-day trades (and two more pre-draft trades) in that time, with the Kansas City Chiefs packaging it with third- and fourth-round picks to go up to No. 22 and take cornerback Trent McDuffie in 2022 (in the Strange draft), and the Green Bay Packers trading down for Picks 33 and 108 when the Cleveland Browns moved up to select tight end David Njoku in 2017.



Njoku is the only Pro Bowler to be picked 29th in the past decade, though Harrison Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson went 29th overall in 2012-13, respectively. Wilson, who played one game for the Tennessee Titans before being cut, is easily the biggest bust. And Bryan Bresee, last year’s 29th pick, had 4.5 sacks in 17 games as a backup with the New Orleans Saints.

Bresee projects as a key player on the Saints’ defensive line this fall, and the Lions’ first-round pick could follow a similar trajectory.



“That's where you want to be in your roster, where you're picking guys whether it's even at Pick 29 or on Day 2, you're picking guys that if he plays, he plays,” general manager Brad Holmes said. “I mean, that's really how it was last year with Brian Branch. We had signed C.J. (Gardner-Johnson) to be the nickel. We felt good at safety at that point. Branch was just the best player that we wanted and we were like, ‘I don't know if he's going to play or not. I don't know. We'll see how it goes.’

“So that's kinda how we operate. I know it's always like, 'Oh, there's a need, man. Let's get this need.' You don't know how that rookie is going to really develop. We try to do the best we can. I feel very confident in our process in forecasting that stuff, but, end of the day, man, it's just, it’s hard to bank on that stuff."


Here are the last 10 picks at No. 29:



2023: DT Bryan Bresee, Saints

2022: OG Cole Strange, Patriots

2021: CB Eric Stokes, Packers


2020: OT Isaiah Wilson, Titans

2019: DE L.J. Collier, Seattle Seahawks

2018: DT Taven Bryan, Jacksonville Jaguars


2017: TE David Njoku, Browns

2016: DT Robert Nkemdiche, Arizona Cardinals


2015: WR Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis Colts

2014: DT Dominique Easley, Patriots


Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

[Mainevent]

That's an ugly list, 5 outright busts and 2 journeyman types (Bryan and Dorsett could be lumped into the busts given they never got anywhere close to 1sts round value)

[jaadam4]

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2024/...llenge-podcast

Man that mock is something else. I don't know who any of those players are.

[chemiclord]

Yeah, there's a whole lotta "woof" in that list.

[Mainevent]

Man that mock is something else. I don't know who any of those players are.

• Round 1, Pick 29: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
• Round 2, Pick 61: Wake Forest CB Caelen Carson
• Round 3, Pick 73: Yale OL Kiran Amegadjie

Thomas is a huge deep threat WR, might be the best overall athlete at WR in this class, and that's saying something. Monster year at LSU. I can't see him getting to #29, it's likely him and Adonai Mitchell fighting to be WR 4/5 in this draft.

Carson is a press man CB with good size. He's been a 2nd-4th round prospect depending upon where you look, as every site has these 2nd day CBs in a different order.

Amegadje is a freaky LT developmental prospect - the guy you replace Decker with if it pans out.

[El Axe]

• Round 1, Pick 29: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
• Round 2, Pick 61: Wake Forest CB Caelen Carson
• Round 3, Pick 73: Yale OL Kiran Amegadjie

Thomas is a huge deep threat WR, might be the best overall athlete at WR in this class, and that's saying something. Monster year at LSU. I can't see him getting to #29, it's likely him and Adonai Mitchell fighting to be WR 4/5 in this draft.

Carson is a press man CB with good size. He's been a 2nd-4th round prospect depending upon where you look, as every site has these 2nd day CBs in a different order.

Amegadje is a freaky LT developmental prospect - the guy you replace Decker with if it pans out.

Nice summary. To piggyback on your comment, Thomas is ranked #16 by the mock consensus, so getting him at 29 would be great value. He's that big athletic X that we've been lacking. Carson is not only a good CB, but a good scheme fit. Amegadjie is a home-run swing.

I listened to their podcast where they had a second set of 3 picks:
29 - Johnny Newton, DT Illinois
61 - Xavier Legette, WR SC
73 - Christian Mahogany, IOL, BC

[El Axe]

FWIW, I went through mock drafts of the last two days, and compiled the 1st-round selections

WR (5)
Keon Coleman 1
Adonai Mitchell 3
Troy Franklin 1

Edge (7)
Jared Verse 1
Darius Robinson 4
Chop Robinson 2

CB (9)
Ennis Rakestraw 3
TJ Tampa 2
Kool-Aid McKinstry 4

OL (3)
Kingsley Suamatai 2
Amarius Mims 1

Trade down (2)
29 for 34 & 103
29 for 44 & 2025 3rd (terrible deal, but whatever)

[jaadam4]

FWIW, I went through mock drafts of the last two days, and compiled the 1st-round selections


OL (3)
Amarius Mims 1

Mims is raw and f'ing strong as hell. He'd be an amazing one to draft and stash for a year working on his reps as he really needs them. He reminds me a lot of Olu Oluwatimi from the standpoint that he looks like he could rip your arms off and beat you with them.

[Mainevent]

I’m having a hard time getting over the RAS for Darius Robinson. It is so bad for a DE, even a big one. I’ve seen some people use Cameron Jordan as a comp, but Jordan was a significantly better athlete coming out. As a DT it’s really good but he thrived after a move out to edge from DT.

[Mainevent]

Amarius Mims is not really anything like Olu, other than they are both OL. Mims is a 6’8”, 340lb man monster with 36+ inch arms that makes normal humans look like children.

[jaadam4]

Amarius Mims is not really anything like Olu, other than they are both OL. Mims is a 6’8”, 340lb man monster with 36+ inch arms that makes normal humans look like children.

Reading and comprehension is fundamental.

I didn’t say anything about them as players, positions or anything else other than looking like they’re stronger than everyone else.

[jaadam4]

I’m having a hard time getting over the RAS for Darius Robinson. It is so bad for a DE, even a big one. I’ve seen some people use Cameron Jordan as a comp, but Jordan was a significantly better athlete coming out. As a DT it’s really good but he thrived after a move out to edge from DT.

Honestly I don’t like any or the DEs in this class and Newton is one of the few DTs. It’s a shit class for DL

at least for 1st rounders