Tweet
First things first. This was never, ever, ever going to be The Year. Not with that defense! And frankly, you can't win it all by gambling all the time unless you have an all-timer like Mahomes under centre. We've done so well to get this far... but sooner or later, both the D and even Goff were going to get found out.
As, of course, was Dan Campbell himself. These aren't just completely uncharted waters for this organisation (we had no shot at all in the 1991 NFC Championship Game - we certainly had a shot last night), but for our Head Coach too. It's a learning curve; he has to reflect on his mistakes and what he can do better, as all the players and staff do.
The danger now is that the media and (some) fans end up blaming him for what just happened. These being the Lions, that narrative could take on a life of its own, leaving players questioning him (and this team is nothing without every player believing in their leader 100%) and the local press turning against him, especially if next season starts badly. It could spiral very quickly. That's what happens at snakebitten teams who appear to be 'cursed': it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, that Sispyphean boulder constantly proving immovable.
The '91 Lions were young - very young actually - and seemed to have a fantastic future. But Wayne Fontes wildly overreacted to one whupping by one of the greatest teams of all time, ditched our offense and OC altogether, and the rest was unhappy history: exacerbated by horribly weak ownership and an HC who became a parody of himself, hated by his own ludicrously messed around, chopped and changed players. That sort of thing must not happen again.
Instead, we have to take the (many, many) positives, move on, and realise it's not just about giving the city and state its pride back. It's about building a team which all things being equal, is supposed to win Championships. Really, that's how the Red Sox and Cubs ended their interminable droughts. Until it finally happened, even in their best years, neither had ever been obviously the best, obviously dominant. Merely "they have a shot if everything falls their way". But for all but one team in any postseason, everything doesn't fall their way.
In our case, turning from huge overachievers into major contenders, even favourites, is gonna require a much better defense and probably, an upgrade at quarterback. Clearly, it's also gonna need Campbell to dial it back somewhat. It's very plausible that the only reason he risks so much so often is because he knows how fragile the D is; therefore, it's been "score as many we can as quickly as we can". But against objectively superior opponents, who've been in contention for several years now and have the experience to handle these occasions, that can and just has led to overreaching ourselves.
The first call to go for it was understandable - but still objectively wrong, because it risked giving the home team life and getting their fans right into it, instead of calmly moving three scores ahead again. The second call to go for it was flat out crazy: specifically because it showed no feel for the circumstances of the game at all. Across all sports, trying to force things never ever works.
When that second call was made, we desperately needed to calm down and get back to basics. A field goal tying things up would've given San Fran something to think about. Instead, we all but handed the game to them on a plate in a situation when risking it all was flat out not necessary. And even then, we actually took way too long to score on that final drive. The right thing to do would've been take an FG much earlier, preserving the three timeouts instead of fatally giving one away.
Something else too. Ending 'The Curse' actually requires everyone in the organisation to accept, even embrace, that plenty of people believe one genuinely exists: meaning that one thing going wrong can turn all too fast into everything going wrong amid horrible anxiety terrifyingly fast. Again, that was part of how the Red Sox and Cubs ultimately got over the hump, the former especially.
Because what just happened to the Lions is not normal for organisations used to winning... or even just those who win every now and then. A drop on 4th down followed by a freakish completion which wouldn't happen in 100 tries followed by the return bouncing off a Lions player into the endzone followed by a fumble followed by the same player as earlier again dropping it (this time embarrassingly) followed by an incredible chance to down it at the 1 yard line being screwed up followed by another failure when stupidly gambling on 4th down. The first six of those all happened one after another: BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG, and a 17-point lead had vanished in the blink of an eye.
Hands up all those who were really confident we'd win at half time? I know I wasn't. I thought we still needed another two touchdowns. Many HCs would've gone too conservative and passive in that situation, and ended up losing late in grim, fateful fashion. Campbell simply went too far in the other direction.
Life, like sport, is all about balance. Knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. Probably the hardest thing in the world for any team leader and final decision maker in sport is to establish and maintain that balance - because everyone in life makes mistakes all the time, least of all in the white hot heat of an atmosphere like that. That requires intuition, guts, ruthless rationality and detached objectivity all at the same time; it also requires reading what's happening and responding to it, not just sticking to your guns in all circumstances. Bloody-mindedness is one thing. Outright stupidity is quite another.
I'm proud of every single person at the organisation for everything that's been achieved to this point - and will always believe it was Martha Firestone Ford who started this long journey when she cleaned house in 2015. Yes, she then got key decisions wrong, very wrong even; but the culture started changing right there. She got those decisions wrong for the right reasons: wholly unlike her late husband, she wasn't prepared to accept going .500 and getting a wild card every now and then.
She's 98 now. There's still a window to make the dream of her and every Lions fan everywhere come true - but only if the right lessons are learned, and the close season features rigorous analysis and reflection as well as another excellent draft. I think we're still two seasons away from having a major, major chance: which includes getting the #1 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs. We're still - we always will be - a dome team. Certainly not as stereotyped as under Fontes or Caldwell; but on the road against quality opponents and very loud fans, we'll always be up against it and liable to come up short.
The record of dome teams on the road in NFC Championship games is quite apocalyptically awful. That's the biggest single reason the Vikings have such a disastrous record in those games. You have to get the top seed; and before anyone suggests it, no, the atrocious refs in Dallas didn't cost us it. The Niners would've played their starters had they needed to v the Rams - and they're a better team than the Rams.
So that should be the next target. As it is, we have a better platform from which to build than at any point in at least 32 years, and probably over sixty. Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou to the Detroit Lions for the wonderful ride this season has been. To Campbell himself above all. He completely embodies the spirit of the city: his passion, his drive, his courage has dragged us through sheer force of will to where we are now.
But where are now could vanish in no time if the right calls aren't now made. We've got this high up the mountain. Now it's about putting ourselves in the best possible position to take those last two monumental steps to the summit.
As, of course, was Dan Campbell himself. These aren't just completely uncharted waters for this organisation (we had no shot at all in the 1991 NFC Championship Game - we certainly had a shot last night), but for our Head Coach too. It's a learning curve; he has to reflect on his mistakes and what he can do better, as all the players and staff do.
The danger now is that the media and (some) fans end up blaming him for what just happened. These being the Lions, that narrative could take on a life of its own, leaving players questioning him (and this team is nothing without every player believing in their leader 100%) and the local press turning against him, especially if next season starts badly. It could spiral very quickly. That's what happens at snakebitten teams who appear to be 'cursed': it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, that Sispyphean boulder constantly proving immovable.
The '91 Lions were young - very young actually - and seemed to have a fantastic future. But Wayne Fontes wildly overreacted to one whupping by one of the greatest teams of all time, ditched our offense and OC altogether, and the rest was unhappy history: exacerbated by horribly weak ownership and an HC who became a parody of himself, hated by his own ludicrously messed around, chopped and changed players. That sort of thing must not happen again.
Instead, we have to take the (many, many) positives, move on, and realise it's not just about giving the city and state its pride back. It's about building a team which all things being equal, is supposed to win Championships. Really, that's how the Red Sox and Cubs ended their interminable droughts. Until it finally happened, even in their best years, neither had ever been obviously the best, obviously dominant. Merely "they have a shot if everything falls their way". But for all but one team in any postseason, everything doesn't fall their way.
In our case, turning from huge overachievers into major contenders, even favourites, is gonna require a much better defense and probably, an upgrade at quarterback. Clearly, it's also gonna need Campbell to dial it back somewhat. It's very plausible that the only reason he risks so much so often is because he knows how fragile the D is; therefore, it's been "score as many we can as quickly as we can". But against objectively superior opponents, who've been in contention for several years now and have the experience to handle these occasions, that can and just has led to overreaching ourselves.
The first call to go for it was understandable - but still objectively wrong, because it risked giving the home team life and getting their fans right into it, instead of calmly moving three scores ahead again. The second call to go for it was flat out crazy: specifically because it showed no feel for the circumstances of the game at all. Across all sports, trying to force things never ever works.
When that second call was made, we desperately needed to calm down and get back to basics. A field goal tying things up would've given San Fran something to think about. Instead, we all but handed the game to them on a plate in a situation when risking it all was flat out not necessary. And even then, we actually took way too long to score on that final drive. The right thing to do would've been take an FG much earlier, preserving the three timeouts instead of fatally giving one away.
Something else too. Ending 'The Curse' actually requires everyone in the organisation to accept, even embrace, that plenty of people believe one genuinely exists: meaning that one thing going wrong can turn all too fast into everything going wrong amid horrible anxiety terrifyingly fast. Again, that was part of how the Red Sox and Cubs ultimately got over the hump, the former especially.
Because what just happened to the Lions is not normal for organisations used to winning... or even just those who win every now and then. A drop on 4th down followed by a freakish completion which wouldn't happen in 100 tries followed by the return bouncing off a Lions player into the endzone followed by a fumble followed by the same player as earlier again dropping it (this time embarrassingly) followed by an incredible chance to down it at the 1 yard line being screwed up followed by another failure when stupidly gambling on 4th down. The first six of those all happened one after another: BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG, and a 17-point lead had vanished in the blink of an eye.
Hands up all those who were really confident we'd win at half time? I know I wasn't. I thought we still needed another two touchdowns. Many HCs would've gone too conservative and passive in that situation, and ended up losing late in grim, fateful fashion. Campbell simply went too far in the other direction.
Life, like sport, is all about balance. Knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. Probably the hardest thing in the world for any team leader and final decision maker in sport is to establish and maintain that balance - because everyone in life makes mistakes all the time, least of all in the white hot heat of an atmosphere like that. That requires intuition, guts, ruthless rationality and detached objectivity all at the same time; it also requires reading what's happening and responding to it, not just sticking to your guns in all circumstances. Bloody-mindedness is one thing. Outright stupidity is quite another.
I'm proud of every single person at the organisation for everything that's been achieved to this point - and will always believe it was Martha Firestone Ford who started this long journey when she cleaned house in 2015. Yes, she then got key decisions wrong, very wrong even; but the culture started changing right there. She got those decisions wrong for the right reasons: wholly unlike her late husband, she wasn't prepared to accept going .500 and getting a wild card every now and then.
She's 98 now. There's still a window to make the dream of her and every Lions fan everywhere come true - but only if the right lessons are learned, and the close season features rigorous analysis and reflection as well as another excellent draft. I think we're still two seasons away from having a major, major chance: which includes getting the #1 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs. We're still - we always will be - a dome team. Certainly not as stereotyped as under Fontes or Caldwell; but on the road against quality opponents and very loud fans, we'll always be up against it and liable to come up short.
The record of dome teams on the road in NFC Championship games is quite apocalyptically awful. That's the biggest single reason the Vikings have such a disastrous record in those games. You have to get the top seed; and before anyone suggests it, no, the atrocious refs in Dallas didn't cost us it. The Niners would've played their starters had they needed to v the Rams - and they're a better team than the Rams.
So that should be the next target. As it is, we have a better platform from which to build than at any point in at least 32 years, and probably over sixty. Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou to the Detroit Lions for the wonderful ride this season has been. To Campbell himself above all. He completely embodies the spirit of the city: his passion, his drive, his courage has dragged us through sheer force of will to where we are now.
But where are now could vanish in no time if the right calls aren't now made. We've got this high up the mountain. Now it's about putting ourselves in the best possible position to take those last two monumental steps to the summit.
Comment