Gameday Thread: NFC Championship GRIT vs 9ers.

[froot loops]

One of the strange things about Goff's time in Detroit is he has been excellent in come from behind scenarios. But they generally haven't been in a lot of those. But he is different that it is precision clock work of 10-15 yard passes. It's unlike Stafford where he could uncork bombs and score in a 4 play drive.

[Tom]

Rob Parker was on a Fox Sports radio show with Chris Broussard and he said what Dan Campbell did was fireable.

I’m okay not agreeing with Parker.

[Blue Lagoon58]

The fact that he actually gets air time is amazing. That's gotta be some outfit that employs him.

[DanO]

I can't stand Rob Parker.

[DanO]

This is the one I disagreed with. They held the niners to three on a relatively long drive. The Lions then were in position to put the game back to a 17 point lead, the same as the score at the half, but with nine minutes of clock gone.

At that point the clock was on the Lions side. If the Lions take the points, the niners were no better off than they were going into the half and the huge momentum shift probably doesn't happen.

Having said that, I guess it is hard to criticize the call to go for it. They had an open receiver and he dropped a pass that I would expect most high school players to catch. If they pick up the first, they probably run another couple of minutes off of the clock and maybe score a TD and take the pressure off of the defense. (BTW, Reynolds dropped a huge third down that would have kept a drive alive and stopped the bleeding later in the game as well)

It is/was who the Lions were all year. They just didn't execute in the clutch yesterday.

This is how I feel exactly. I don't think you coach in the Championship game the same as the regular season. You don't just go for it on 4th because "that's what you do". Situational logic needs to be applied.

[DanO]

I don’t have a problem with somebody saying that they should have kicked the FG. It’s a judgment call at that point, both sides have valid arguments. I just can’t stand the idiots running around claiming one or both of those plays cost them the game and DC was reckless. It’s a sad, weak take.

Now DC and Ben Johnson should rightly get skewered for the run at the goal line. That was bad.

There were many, many things that caused the destruction. Not kicking the FG was one of many contributors. Anyone calling for Campbell's head is an idiot.

[Mainevent]

What’s great about this is if DC had attempted FGs in one or both situations and they had lost, you’d have a lot of the same people claiming that DC shrunk when he had a chance to go for the kill, that he went away from what made the team a success throughout the year and who he claims to be, blah blah blah.

Have a friend who is in this boat. He almost always wants them to kick. Wanted them to kick against the Rams, wanted them to kick against the Bucs, wanted to kick against Dallas. Wanted them to run the ball against the Rams rather than attempting a pass to seal the game. His whole bit is being risk averse and not wanting to lose “momentum”.

[froot loops]

If anything, in championship games even conservative coaches tend to get more aggressive.

[chemiclord]

The thing about losing "momentum," is that it's often used as a deflection from one very simple reality; the opponent was better than you and water simply found its level at the worst possible moment.

That's how that second half looked to me. San Fran was simply better, and while it took them one hell of a dumb luck bounce (along with a turnover at the worst time) to get them back into position, by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, all the flaws of the Lions were being laid bare by a better opponent.

Defensively, pretty much all the warts this team had were hitting at once. Their struggles with containment, the need to over-commit on the running game, an elusive QB taking advantage of poor tackling and a lack of talent on the defensive line, either by extending plays and targeting an outmatched secondary (that had a CB2 literally "straight off the couch" for half the season), or by gashing out of position linebackers and safeties by tucking it down and running. San Fran was going to be able to score however many points they needed to win that game.

Offensively, the Lions really lacked that guy who could reliably win contested 50/50 balls. Williams is a potential deep threat to be sure, and showed a ton of fight himself, but he's not that Justin Jefferson type that if the QB is in trouble, he can find that guy and always have a chance. Amon-Ra has the dawg, but not the stature. Not having that guy was a (small) part of the reason why I think they found themselves in a lot of "win or die" type 4th downs.

I know Froot loves to say that this sort of loss is on the offense because they have to score more... but that's not really how the offense is built either. They can win a shootout... against a team with no defense like the Chargers... it's a bit of a different animal needing to drop a 40-burger on the Niners.

[ghandi]

KC played a high powered offense and allowed 10 points...their high powered offense only scored 17 themselves.....31 points should be enough to win a playoff game

[CGVT]

I'm not saying he should have kicked the field goal in the third quarter, but it is probably what I would have done.

Momentum is a thing. Keeping the home crowd out of the game is a thing. Really.

To me, though, the biggest reason to kick there was to negate almost 10 minutes of football and have the deficit be the same as it was to start the half.

I'm good with Campbell's decision to go for it. I get it. If they get the first and eventually score at TD they would add a pretty serious nail in the coffin. And that type of decision is what got the Lions to the championship game.

One of the things about risk management, and make no mistake, that is a big part of coaching, is that the quality of the decision is not changed by the outcome. If your decision is based on sound logic then it is a good decision, even if it fails.

The Lions were good enough to beat San Fran. They got a couple of bad bounces. Jesus, that third down play where Purdy scrambled and threw up a prayer just before being tackled well short the sticks and the receiver made the one had grab for a first down was pure shit house luck.The play that bounce off of Vidor's face and was caught for a 50 yd gain was pure shit house luck. Add that to the fact that the Lions couldn't make the clutch plays when they had to, like had done all year and you get what you saw Sunday.

Does that mean that the Lions are as good as San Fran? Probably not, but the game came down to a few plays that San Fran made and few that Lions didn't

[chemiclord]

Oh, don't get it twisted, I'm not saying momentum isn't a thing, merely that it gets overplayed in the mind of fans.

I actually think the first attempt to go for it on 4th was to try and keep momentum. I think Campbell thought the Niners had a run in them, and he felt it was important to "go for the kill" before that run happened. I don't disagree with the idea.

But "momentum" isn't why they lost. It could have wound up being the reason they won, but they lost because San Fran was the better team, and the Niners had enough time and firepower and a smattering of luck to show it by the end.

[CGVT]

Oh, don't get it twisted, I'm not saying momentum isn't a thing, merely that it gets overplayed in the mind of fans.

I actually think the first attempt to go for it on 4th was to try and keep momentum. I think Campbell thought the Niners had a run in them, and he felt it was important to "go for the kill" before that run happened. I don't disagree with the idea.

But "momentum" isn't why they lost. It could have wound up being the reason they won, but they lost because San Fran was the better team, and the Niners had enough time and firepower and a smattering of luck to show it by the end.

I agree with the bolded part. That is why I said that I get why they went for it. It was a high risk/high reward call that didn't work out. That doesn't mean it was the wrong call

But, I think momentum/game feel is underplayed in the minds of fans.

How many times have you seen a basketball game change on a couple of plays or calls

Home team is down by 15 or so, they get a bucket, and then a steal and a break. There is a 50/50 call and the ref makes a demonstrative call for the home team (because the crowd is starting to get into it and the refs are feeling it too) The crowd goes nuts and the home team feeds off of that energy and the next thing you know they go on a tear. Everything starts going to shit for the visitors and is gold for the home team and the home team pulls off a win.

Momentum, dude.

Maybe it happens because the home team is just better. Maybe not, but the failure on 4th down was the equivalent of the ref's demonstrative call in the basketball game.

[Mainevent]

Momentum matters except when it doesn't. You'll see "huge momentum swings" because of a turnover or stop or something, but then nothing comes of it. People will talk all day about the momentum in come back wins like this but you rarely see anybody talking about the "momentum" that fizzles out almost immediately.

DC had a chance to bury the 49ers on that drive and he took a good % shot at it. It didn't pan out. But the outcome is not informative of the decision. The 49ers made a choice to kick a FG in the first half and Moody missed. Did that make it the wrong decision? Of course not. LIke I said before, if Campbell goes for the FG and Badger misses, all these same talking heads would be on him for not sticking to his mantra when it came down to a crunch.

Now the second time, that's the one i have more of an issue with. Getting to a tie game to me is the right play there and with everything going against them, face mask catch, the fumble, dropped balls and random plays that happened, it would have been a good outcome at that point. But the far, far bigger issue on that drive is how they got to 4th and 3 in the first place when they went away from running Montgomery down their throats.

[mason reese]

I won’t totally discount momentum, but at the end of the day they made the important plays and the Lions didn’t. Maybe the failed conversion was the fulcrum, but if SF still makes that reception of Vildors face, and Gibbs still fumbles, momentum was turning regardless. It was one of the few games I can remember where the opposing team was able to turn up their intensity and the Lions wilted instead of matching it.