Jared Goff’s next contract

[Mainevent]

No one will offer Sewell anything other than the Lions.

I would sign Goff to a one year deal, tops.

Thats nice, but not relevant. Goff isn’t signing a one year deal.

[Forsh]

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That's rubbish. There's no chance that's correct. Ridiculous. Like ... many people along the pipeline of that false stat being published should be fired ridiculous. 83.8% last year to 3.7% this year?

[chemiclord]

When I saw that stat, I figured it had to be one of two things;

1) Either it is completely bogus or 2) the standard FTN uses for "good protection" is such an absurdly high standard that next to no one in the NFL meets it with anything resembling regularity (like league average is in the low 20% or some shit), and the Lions last year merely happened to have all the stars align in the perfect way for them to reach that high of a number.

[froot loops]

I get a kick out of these comments about needing to have a good offensive line for Goff and having to pay for it. Yeah, no shit, it's like people are arguing that if you get a better quarterback you can get by on the cheap for the offensive line. Take a look around the league, teams sink a lot of resources into the line to protect their quarterback. If they don't the quarterback and the team suffers.

The time for the Lions is right now. I'm not sure they are legit Superbowl contenders this season but if you get a #2 seed, you have to be considered for it. This year probably through 2026 is their window. They have enough cap flexibility to make it work. What you don't want to do is go searching for a quarterback during that stretch.

[jaadam4]

I get a kick out of these comments about needing to have a good offensive line for Goff and having to pay for it. Yeah, no shit, it's like people are arguing that if you get a better quarterback you can get by on the cheap for the offensive line. Take a look around the league, teams sink a lot of resources into the line to protect their quarterback. If they don't the quarterback and the team suffers.

The time for the Lions is right now. I'm not sure they are legit Superbowl contenders this season but if you get a #2 seed, you have to be considered for it. This year probably through 2026 is their window. They have enough cap flexibility to make it work. What you don't want to do is go searching for a quarterback during that stretch.

Agreed on all of that.

[Mainevent]

And there’s no realistic half-ass scenario where they only extend him for a year or sign him for $30M per. It’s either give him the market value extension or you plan to cut bait and need to have a path forward without him.

[froot loops]

When people talk about extensions for quarterbacks they take the average per year and think it's going to be the cap hit. For example, if you give Goff a 5 year 250 million dollar extension, in their minds he has a cap hit of 50 million. In reality, they would reduce his salary in 2024 to one million and one of the years would be voidable and the salary cap hit in 2024 would be the same, probably wouldn't be much bigger in 2025.

Look at Mahomes contract, they signed him to a 10 year 450 million dollar extension and his cap hit this year is 37 million and in the future he will be converting salary into signing bonuses to save money.

By all accounts, the Lions are at the start of a run, they don't have any true long term commitments and they will be able to manipulate the contract for at least a few years before the piper comes calling.

[chemiclord]

The point of a dual-threat QB actually isn't so that you can skimp on the O-Line; it's because the ability to extend plays, and negate negative plays with your legs can put tremendous strain on even the best defenses. Teams that think they can "make due" with a cheap O-line quickly find out that it doesn't really work. It works better than a weak O-line with a statue at QB... but neither are going to be ideal.

Sure, you need savvy to find quality players on cheaper contracts occasionally... but guess what? That's true no matter who you have behind center.

[DanO]

That's rubbish. There's no chance that's correct. Ridiculous. Like ... many people along the pipeline of that false stat being published should be fired ridiculous. 83.8% last year to 3.7% this year?

YA that's gotta be BS. He drops back 50 times and 48 of those he is pressured. I don't think so.

[dsred]

For comparison of cap numbers, Tunsil is at $25mm, Trent Williams is at $23mm, and Bakhtiari is at $23mm. Someone will offer Sewell $25mm.

Geez, it's even worse than I thought!

[Mainevent]

Yeah, the Chiefs lost the SB because of bad OL and went out and paid massive FA contracts to Thuney and Taylor and spent a 2nd round pick on Humphrey.

Then of course they traded Tyreek and tried to go cheap at WR and now that’s biting them in the ass.

Eventually, if you have good players, they will get paid or they will leave. Successful teams need to make choices and plan ahead to fill in the gaps.

[dsred]

I get a kick out of these comments about needing to have a good offensive line for Goff and having to pay for it. Yeah, no shit, it's like people are arguing that if you get a better quarterback you can get by on the cheap for the offensive line. Take a look around the league, teams sink a lot of resources into the line to protect their quarterback. If they don't the quarterback and the team suffers.

The time for the Lions is right now. I'm not sure they are legit Superbowl contenders this season but if you get a #2 seed, you have to be considered for it. This year probably through 2026 is their window. They have enough cap flexibility to make it work. What you don't want to do is go searching for a quarterback during that stretch.

You can have Goff for the next three seasons without extending him. He's signed for next season, and you're allowed to franchise him twice, correct?

Now for your other "arguments". Goff is not mobile. At all. He can't get out of situations where things don't go right like other QBs can. In addition, as I mentioned, Goff's spread between when he has good vs bad protection is among the widest in the league. Close to first when well protected, and in the 23-25 range when protection breaks down. If you want a good offense with him, it's imperative to have a great OL. To have a great OL, you have to pay to keep them.

So if you do that, how much money is left for the skill positions and good players on D?

[Mainevent]

Franchising him gives you no ability to manipulate the salary cap. His cap hits for franchise tags would be (conservatively) $38M and $46M. So you’re paying him close to the same he would get anyway, with no control over the impact on the cap.

[froot loops]

This is what I'm talking about

Trent Williams' cap hit is 12.5 million this year, his contract extension has a 23 million dollar average
Bakhtiari's extension was a 4 year $92 million contract for a 23 million dollar average. But because of that extension his cap hit was 11 million in 2021 and 13.4 million in 2022. Even this year, it is 21 (below the 23 million).

Sewell isn't up for 2 years, he is going to get paid a ton but they'll make it work and his average per year will be much higher than the cap hit for the first couple years.

[dsred]

Franchising him gives you no ability to manipulate the salary cap. His cap hits for franchise tags would be (conservatively) $38M and $46M. So you’re paying him close to the same he would get anyway, with no control over the impact on the cap.

Thanks for the clarification. Given that info then I modify my opinion. If they win a playoff game due to his performance then I wouldn't mind extending him say for two years $90 million, with whatever cap flexibility they deem acceptable. If they don't win a playoff game then ride it out.