Lions News

[whatever_gong82]

NFC scout: “If (Colts GM Chris) Ballard takes him at No. 4, he’s stupid. (Richardson) scares the fuck out of me … If you use him right he may not (bust). He’s got to sit a minimum of two years. That’s why you’ve got a guy for five years. You hope your guys can develop him. He’s so gifted athletically you almost got to take a shot and just see what happens. But what is that value at? … All the talent in the world has only started 13 games in the NCAA. If you want to measure his record against Mitchell Trubisky, 6-7 record shows you need more seasoning. He should have stayed in college … He’s more athletic than Cam Newton, I can tell you that. He can (rush), too. Just as good an athlete as Lamar Jackson. Different style of running, but as good. That’s what his strength is. He has unbelievable feet and lateral agility. He’s got incredible arm strength. But he doesn’t know how to play the game yet.”


AFC scout: “I don’t know if there is one (an apt comparison). Josh Allen? That’s ridiculous. I haven’t seen many like him. Maybe Cam Newton. Colin Kaepernick? This guy is so big and so fast. Colin was fast, could get out and run. Colin wasn’t an accomplished passer. Maybe they are similar.”


NFC scout: “Love the ability. I’m concerned that he hasn’t played a lot of football and he hasn’t done a lot of winning. Even in high school they were kind of average … I have problems with his accuracy. I think he has a long way to go but he has tons of potential. He scares me. The accuracy scares me. His experience scares me … Believe it or not, I think Richardson has a little more natural ability to throw the ball than Lamar did. He runs well but not as good as him (Jackson) … I had Justin Fields graded higher coming out … Terrelle Pryor was just a tremendous athlete. That’s actually not a bad comparison.”


AFC scout: “He is tremendously talented. I did see improvement throughout the year. There’s not a lot of natural rhythm and timing. He’s still working through that stuff. I know he was in a new offense this year, which is hard. It wouldn’t surprise me if he went No. 1 because he is so physically talented. My impression is he’s a pretty good kid and I do think football’s pretty important to him … I wish he would have played another year of college football but I can’t blame him because he’s going to be a high pick and there’s good quarterbacks in next year’s class, too. But I have major reservations about guys that have started one year. It’s hard. I think his inconsistencies are time on the job and having different coaches in his three-year career there … I don’t think he’s as elusive or dynamic as Lamar Jackson with the ball in his hand. He is big and powerful. The only guy I could even comp with him physically was Josh Allen just because of his size and explosiveness. Richardson actually is faster. In terms of jumping and explosiveness, Allen is the only other guy that’s even close that I’ve seen … Cam Newton was a big, strong player, too, and was probably a better thrower. Not as strong an arm but maybe a little better passer because he had played more … He’s bigger than Justin Fields. Fields was a better quarterback coming out than Richardson is right now … This isn’t a slight to anyone but I could see him in an offense similar to what Philadelphia does with Jalen Hurts, a kid’s that developing into being a very dangerous and dynamic player. Jalen’s intangibles were so high. He had won at Alabama, won at Oklahoma. He was a much more experienced player … Just from a skill standpoint, no reason this kid can’t be successful in the NFL. He is a freak athlete. In my mind, if Richardson’s a bust, it’s because either he gets hurt or it’s the organization. If you take that kid you have to be committed to doing what he can do. History tells us four of the (top) five will be busts.”


NFC scout: “He is a freak athlete for his size. He’s got maybe the best arm and is the most physically gifted kid. I don’t know about his decision-making. Does he have the natural feel for the position? Physically, he has all the tools you want. It’s just, does he know how to play quarterback or not? Can someone get him to play quarterback? He’s very raw still. He has to learn how to go through progressions. He’s a year or two away but he has the highest ceiling of any of them … Not Kaepernick. Richardson is more Cam Newton but he throws the ball better. It’s just his accuracy is off some. He’s way better than Terrelle Pryor … I was at his pro day. He put on a show. At his pro day he didn’t throw with the laces. The ball looked like a Nerf ball in his hand for how big his hand is. Whichever way it comes back he throws it – with or without the laces.”


AFC scout: “This guy’s the most incredible prototype. He’s 6-4 ¼, 243, ran 4.43. He’s the biggest, strongest candidate in the history of the NFL. He’s faster than Cam (Newton), he’s bigger than Michael Vick by a mile. He is rare … In a traditional NFL sense, you would say bust. He isn’t going to have it from the mental part. But if in today’s NFL, where there’s enough college stuff percolating around, and we saw what happened with (Jalen) Hurts, there’s at least a 50-50 chance that he can do it … In high school they were 7-4 and he got hurt. They take him at Florida and he’s a 5-star and he redshirts. Then they say, ‘We’re about to get fired, we’ve got to get him on the field.’ So they get him on the field and he gets hurt. He played some in ’21 and this year, his first to actually start …. Remember the Utah game (Sept. 3 at Florida)? You could have sold his stock sky-high that night. A week later, he’s throwing picks against Kentucky and looks haphazard and just average … If Shane Steichen did what he did with Jalen Hurts, then you gotta believe somebody out there thinks, ‘OK, we can do something similar because this guy’s more gifted.’”


NFC scout: “Sky’s the limit. Probably more Lamar Jackson with a little bit of Josh Allen thrown in there. If he ever figures it out … The first Utah game (Sept. 3), he had time to prepare and was completely different. He’s so big and strong, and he can throw it forever. I’m not going to say he’s not going to make it.”


NFC scout: “He could take a bad team and make ‘em at least mediocre. He could win seven or eight games, but that’s it for him until his passing improves. People call him developmental. He’s a project … He played one year of college football. He got all his notoriety because he can run. Then he shows up at the combine and he’s as big as the (edge) rushers that are going to try to chase him down. He’s as fast or maybe faster than them. But I’m going to tell you, he is not a quarterback. I don’t think he has vision. He runs around until he finds somebody open and throws the ball … I think (Tim) Tebow was a little bit better than him. Vince Young is a good call. He’s got athletic talent and physical toughness but he’s a sandlot quarterback. It just takes too long, and you don’t have time (in the NFL). Even if you (draft) him and pick up the fifth-year option, you’re going to have to coach him and train him, and he’s only played one year. He throws the ball all over the f------ field.”


AFC scout: “Some games he has more tackles than completions (laughs). They’d have to build a system around him. But, why not? Lamar (Jackson) did it.”


AFC scout: “Know who he reminded me of? Vince Young. Also Terrelle Pryor. (Pryor) ran high 4.3’s at Pitt Stadium on astroturf. We didn’t think he’d be an NFL quarterback but we weren’t going to discourage him. He stayed at quarterback for a couple years, and once he saw he wasn’t a quarterback moved to receiver. Pryor was a great athlete, too … I don’t like Richardson but he’s a great athlete. He’s not a great passer. He has no feel. They had some talent on that (Florida) team but they had a bad season, and I think it all reflects on him. More slinger, not a passer. I questioned his decisions, his mechanics. Justin Fields was better as a football player. Richardson was so inconsistent … If you take him in the first (round) you’re taking a big risk. He’s not a pro quarterback.”


NFC scout: “He’s got a little Vince Young in him. He’s a freak athlete but he’s a long ways away as an NFL passer. I mean, a long way away. He’s one of those raw, green guys. I don’t want him. He’s a raw athlete. That’s what you’re banking on. You’re rolling some big dice if you take him in the first, or (you have) a lot of rocks in your head.”


AFC scout: “I think the easy answer (for No. 1 bust) is to say Anthony Richardson but I think his talent level is too good. Hopefully, he goes to a system that suits him.”


NFC scout: “I worry about that (intelligence) on him but he’s such a rare talent that you take a chance on him. I don’t see it (top 10), no, but somebody’s going to take him. Just look around. People talk about taking him in the top five picks. I’m, like, ‘Holy shit.’ Glad I’m not picking him. I’d be scared to death of him … His accuracy is really off. That’s the one that scares you on him … It was just like Terrelle Pryor when he came out. He ran 4.4. I’d have drafted him in the fourth. Al (Davis) took him in the third. He was promising for a while, with limitations, but he didn’t get beyond a certain point. That’s what I think will happen to Richardson.”


WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING NOW

Dan Campbell, Lions coach: “What you saw last week was (Richardson) at his best. I’m not even sure you can go back to earlier in the year because I feel they’ve taken the handcuffs off him. They’ve got quarterback power, they’ve got the RPO, they’ve got the read run, they’ve got play-action off that, and then he can scramble. Then, if he’s in the pocket and you’ve got your arms around him trying to bring him to the ground, he’ll just stiff-arm you off him and then throw it down the field. It’s rare, his strength, and he really does have a nice deep ball. He’s an accurate passer down the field, and I mean deep. It’s all-encompassing is what it is.”


Teryl Austin, Steelers defensive coordinator: “He’s just an avatar of an athlete. You’ll see him on some designed quarterback runs (where) guys will have an angle on him and he’ll beat them to the sideline. He’s unique in that way. Even as he’s moving a little bit off balance he has the ability to uncork a bomb. That’s always dangerous. We obviously preach with our guys to make sure they don’t relax at any time against this guy.”


Eric Washington, Bears defensive coordinator: “That’s tough defensively when the quarterback is a second runner.”

Zaire Franklin, Colts linebacker: “I think after the Houston situation (tap-out) I think he’s just dug a little deeper and has been giving more of himself. Not only to the team but to the game.”


NFC executive in personnel: “Yes, he was a mess in college, and hasn’t changed.”

Aaron Glenn, Lions defensive coordinator: “Listen, if you’re in his way, he’s going to try to run over you, and his arm is lively. He’s at his minus-30 and throws it 70 yards on one foot. One thing that’s underrated about this quarterback is his ability to be accurate down the field.”


BOTTOM LINE

Not only is the jury not in on Anthony Richardson, it hasn’t been sequestered or even called. Let’s be honest. No one has a clue if he’ll end up being a star, a bust or somewhere in between.





Email any comments and questions to golongtd@substack.com.

X: @TyDunne & @GoLongTD

Instagram: @TyDunne & @GoLongTD

YouTube: Go Long Channel



EDIT: Deb, I meant to put all 3 of these posts into the Indy game week thread.

Could you please move all 3 of these posts?

Thanks.

[whatever_gong82]

DFN Lions Mailbag: Doubling back to some leftover questions from the past couple weeks

Justin Rogers
Nov 23


Instead of calling for a fresh batch of questions, this week, I thought I’d empty out a few stray queries that found their way to my inbox and the site’s chat. Enjoy.


Q: I know guys have individual goals, but playing Goff, Monty, Jahmyr, Saint and Sewell into the fourth, up huge, spiked my heart rate. What is the thought process of coaches at that point? — Mark


Justin: Let’s take a fresh look at Detroit’s approach to pulling starters against the Jaguars. Yes, the offense remained intact into the fourth quarter, but only because their final drive together actually started in the third frame.

Could they have given the group the hook to start that series, already up 36 points? Yeah, I think you can argue they stayed with them one drive too long. Regardless, coach Dan Campbell was asked about it after the game and he noted, first, it’s been unusual how frequently the situation has come up in recent weeks, and also the desire to pull guys on a high note so poor play doesn’t potentially linger into next week.


At first glance, you’re probably thinking, well, the team scored touchdowns with each of their first seven possessions. What could they possibly need to work on after that? But that seventh drive was definitely the most sloppy, with some penalties and subpar execution, relative to the rest of the performance. Was there a realistic risk of that carrying over to Indianapolis? I’m skeptical, but there is clearly a coaching psychology Campbell believes in with these things.

The other component is there’s not always enough talent dressed to pull everyone. That’s typically why you see Sewell out there to the bitter end of these games. The Lions only dress eight offensive linemen.


Q: Wayne Fontes is, remarkably, the longest-tenured Lions coach in franchise history, and the winningest head coach (Potsy Clark by win percentage). What percentage do you give Campbell to break all three of those marks: Tenure, wins, win percentage? — Noah


Justin: At this rate, it’s getting difficult to imagine Campbell won’t end up the franchise’s longest-tenured and winningest head coach. He’ll be halfway to Fontes’ eight-year tenure — and past halfway in number of games coached based on the 17-game season — by the end of the 2024 campaign.


And Campbell will cross over the halfway point to Fontes’ win total of 66 with a victory this weekend in Indianapolis.

At 48 years old, and given the trajectory of the franchise, four years and 34 wins feel inevitable.


Catching Clark will be significantly more challenging. The coach who came with the team from Portsmouth to Detroit racked up a .679 winning percentage in seven years with the franchise.

Let’s take this out eight seasons, to where Campbell catches Fontes’ tenure. The current coach would need to win 59 of the next 75 regular season games, just shy of four out of every five games the next four and a half years, to surpass Clark.


Possible? Sure. And I understand how we all feel about the roster today, but there’s no way to tell what it looks like two, three or four years down the road. Rosters change, injuries happen, and even one down year puts Campbell further behind in the pursuit of Clark’s mark.

In terms of percentages, I'll put it above 90% Campbell resets the bar for longevity and wins, but closer to 40% he ends up surpassing Clark. Going 3-13-1 the first year on the job is an anchor.


Q: I always thought Calvin Johnson took far too many unnecessary shots from DBs and LBs. He didn’t have the knack, or mentality, to get down when additional yards weren’t there. I believe it shortened his career and had him in more pain than necessary. What do you make of St. Brown’s frequent use of the ‘QB slide’ this season? — Michael


Justin: When you’re bigger, faster and stronger than most back-seven defenders, it’s difficult to tell a player to concede. That’s just not the mentality of most of these guys. Did it shorten Johnson’s career? Maybe. But I think the mental wear and tear of losing shortened it more than any of his physical ailments.


As for St. Brown, the perception he’s giving himself up more frequently caught me by surprise. So here I am, 11:30 p.m. on a Friday night, going through the film of every one of his targets. I got through about half of them without seeing a single slide, only a couple forward lunges as multiple defenders closed in on him. So I’m wondering if I’m reading your question incorrectly. Maybe you’re asking me if I think he should slide more frequently.

To that, I say good luck. Again, that does not mesh with the ultra-competitive nature of St. Brown. The only receiver I can think of who gives himself up regularly is Tyler Lockett, which has probably increased his longevity, but I just can’t imagine St. Brown following suit.


Q: How do coordinators salaries compare to head coaches? Could the Lions conceivably pay him a head coach type salary to keep him? - John


Justin: The problem with this conversation is so little of the information is public. Most estimates have the top NFL coordinators earning in the ballpark of $3 million, which is half of the low-end reported figures for head coaches. Some of the top names are projected to be pulling down closer to $20 million per season.


I’ve been told the Lions already made Johnson one of the highest-paid coordinators in the league after the 2022 season. It’s not reasonable to suddenly offer him a head coach salary because it would disrupt the entire economic system across the league, pissing off the other 31 owners. That decision wouldn't exist in a vacuum. It would almost immediately cause reverberations, accelerating the raising of the market floor for the profession, from head coaches to coordinators to position coaches.



Q: Can you explain some of these metrics like DVOA, the different EPA's, CPOE and others? - Davis


Justin: I can try. Or, at the very least, I can share how the publications that use those numbers define them.


DVOA is a popular one, created by Football Outsiders, which attempts to contextualize the down-to-down consistency of a team against the league average, weighted against the quality of the opponent.


DVOA is presented as a percentage. The Lions are near the top of the league in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The team’s 21.1% offensive DVOA implies the team is 21.1% better than average in a cumulative analysis of each offensive snap.

EPA, which has been around since the 1980s, stands for expected points added. It is similar to DVOA in many ways because it attempts to contextualize the value of each play.


The example used is gaining 3 yards on a third-and-2 is more valuable than 8 yards on third-and-10 because the first generates a fresh set of downs while the latter does not. EPA also factors in other things such as field position and time remaining.

Each play is rated on a scale and you’ll usually see rankings as expected points per play. Again, the 2024 Lions are near the top of those metrics for both offense and defense. Here are more details on that one if you’d like to read up on it.


Finally, there’s CPOE, which is completion percentage over expected. It tries to add added context to the standard completion percentage metric. It evaluates the difficulty of each pass attempt — the likelihood it’s completed — by incorporating several variables, including down and distance, how far the pass traveled in the air beyond the line of scrimmage, yards needed for a first down, plus several other factors.

Here’s more on that one.


Q: Sonic and Knuckles still makes me smile when I hear it, but why stop with the running backs? If Dan Campbell were a video game character, who is he? Amon-Ra? Sewell? - Mike


Justin: I punted on this one a couple weeks back because I ran out of time to come up with thoughtful answers as part of a 25-question mailbag. But I wanted to come back to it, so here’s a retired gamer’s best effort.


Dan Campbell: Doc Louis from Punchout. That guy could coach. According to the internet, Lil’ Mac was 5-foot-7, 107 pounds. Louis led him to a win over Mike Tyson. Campbell is similarly a master motivator.


Penei Sewell: Kratos. If I’m choosing anyone on the roster to take out a God in one-on-one combat, it’s Sewell.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Master Chief. Trained from childhood for combat? This guy has been lifting weights since he was in kindergarten.


Jameson Williams: Crazy Taxi, blazing fast, sometimes out of control, but finds a way to get from point A to point B.

Aidan Hutchinson: Crash Bandicoot, a violent, whirling dervish.


Brian Branch: Mega Man, the versatility to adapt to any environment and thrive while constantly adding new superpowers to his tool set.

Kerby Joseph: Kirby, duh. Dude inhales any football in his vicinity.


Alim McNeill: Bowser. Big, powerful, deceptively quick.

Jared Goff: After spending 30 minutes trying to come up with a good answer, I’m tapping out and turning this one over to the people.


Thanks for reading Detroit Football Network! This post is public so feel free to share it.



Email: jrogers@detroitfootball.net

X: Justin_Rogers

Bluesky: Justin-Rogers

[whatever_gong82]

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2024/11/23/detroit-lions-loren-strickland-paying-off-student-loan-debt/76502579007/

[whatever_gong82]

Detroit Lions are so consistent and so good — but not for the reasons you'd expect

Paywall Freep article.

Jeff Seidel
Detroit Free Press


There is a loud, gaudiness to this Detroit Lions team.

The big offense — the Lions have scored 336 points, the most in team history through 10 games.

The huge wins — the Lions have scored 40 or more points four times, which leads the NFL.

The flashy, incredibly athletic plays — the Lions lead the NFL with 40 explosive pass plays (aka those of 20 yards or more).

And the fun nicknames — calling Jamo and D-Mo, Hutch and Saint and BB, not to mention Sonic and Knuckles.


But there are several under-the-radar aspects — small, subtle, quiet things — that actually foretell even bigger things to come.

Remember back in the day when Lions receivers would just drop the ball? At the worst time?


Yeah, that doesn’t happen anymore. The Lions have just four drops in 262 targets, the fewest in the NFL. It’s the kind of thing you don’t even notice.

And they have fumbled and lost it just once, the fewest in the NFL.


But today, let’s go way, way under the radar and focus on Hogan Hatten, the Lions' long snapper.


Now, you might be thinking: Who the heck cares about a long snapper?


But consider, for a second, the impact the field-goal kicking unit has had on this season.



Jake Bates has been perfect, making 15 straight field goals, and several of those have been absolutely critical kicks. Bates made a pair from more than 50 yards in the Lions' rally over the Houston Texans, including the winner as time expired.

Bates also kicked a 44-yarder with 15 seconds left back in October when the Lions beat the Vikings, 31-29, in another rally.

Huge, huge kicks.

But it all starts with Hatten, the long snapper.



“The snapper is key in the whole thing,” Lions special teams coach Dave Fipp said Thursday. “When the guy rips the ball back there like our guy does and it’s a tight spiral, very, very catchable ball with a lot of velocity and gets in your hand quick and just sticks, I think it’s like a good quarterback, some of these guys the way they throw the ball, it just tends to stick in these guys hands.”

Now, let’s move on to Jack Fox, who is a tremendous punter. But he’s made a massive impact as a holder, too.

“He’s the best holder in the League — gotta be,” QB Jared Goff said. “He does a great job.”

But he didn’t start out that way.


“I do think the guy’s incredible, but when I first got here, he was not, and I wasn’t shy about saying that either,” Fipp said. “He’s done just an outstanding job of working at it. … He’s surehanded, he gets the ball down on the ground quick, he does the same thing every time, his hands aren’t erratic, they’re nice and fluid and smooth, he gets the laces right when they’re not right, and then there’s a lot going into the tilt and the lean of the ball too, so tilt it forward or backward and then leaning towards him or away from him, so he really does a great job of getting all that stuff right and down and set, and that really helps the kicker tremendously.”

And that kind of thing — perhaps subtle but hugely important — can lead directly to wins.



The flags you don't see



Now, let’s move to special teams penalties.

Again, you might be thinking: Why the heck does that matter?

Well, it does.


How many times have you watched an NFL game and you see a big return on a punt or a kickoff?

Then, seemingly without fail, a flag brings it back. But the Lions have only had five special teams penalties all season —only three teams have fewer, with Arizona, San Francisco and Tampa Bay all having just four.


By comparison, some teams have three times as many special teams penalties — Carolina has 15 and, ahem, Dallas has 17.

Now, think about what Kalif Raymond did against the Tennessee Titans. He returned five punts for 190 yards, including a 90-yard touchdown, and it sparked a massive blowout.


Best of all, none of those big returns were wiped out by penalties.

Because they focus on it.


“We do spend a lot of time on it,” Fipp said. “We spend a lot of time talking about it, coaching it and teaching it. I believe that penalties are — can be devastating to you, especially in the return game and people probably don’t talk about that enough.”



The flags we are seeing less


Now, a word on Terrion Arnold, the rookie cornerback.

He has been called for a whopping team-high 10 penalties this season, including six pass interference flags and two holding flags.


But after getting called for eight penalties in September, he has only had two since.

That’s progress. That’s an under-the-radar improvement that is actually a huge thing.


“Listen, he’s improving every week,” defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said Thursday. “The one thing that we want to make sure that he continues to improve on in practice was his ability to not garb and hold and things like that. Listen, he’s a very aggressive player and we play aggressively at the corner spot, and we knew some of those things were going to take a while – for it come out, and he’s doing a good job. Listen – and it’s going to happen again, I know that, he knows that, but he’s gotten a lot better with his technique and it shows up on the field.”

Another under-the-radar thing?



How the Lions have been so consistent and effective in their wide zone blocking scheme, creating holes for their running game.


Again, you might think: Come on, you're in the weeds here — who the heck cares?


But it has been huge.


“Up front, our wide zone scheme normally takes a few weeks — it takes to about midseason before it starts clicking,” offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. “I haven’t felt that this year.”

Some of that is because the Lions have two fantastic running backs — David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the first running back duo in NFL history to each produce 800 yards rushing and nine TDs through the first 10 games of a season.


But it’s also because they have an experienced offensive line.

“It felt like we picked up where we left off at the end of last year,” Johnon said.


That allowed the Lions to have a more consistent running game earlier this season when the passing game wasn’t clicking yet. Which lead directly to wins.

Huge, right?


Now, one last under-the-radar thing: The Lions line up in the right place during practice.

“We just finished walking through and the details.. coming out in the walk-throughs, it’s amazing,” running backs coach Scottie Montgomery said Wednesday. “Every single alignment, if a guy, if a wideout is not perfect aligned, the wideout beside him is moving him and shifting him, start it over. So I think that they’ve gotten to a point starting this offseason where, man, the expectation on them is they want to chase excellence.”


All of these things are subtle.

A long snapper as accurate as a QB.

Reducing penalties on special teams.

Holding onto the ball.


Just freakin’ lining up in the right spot.

You might not notice it during a game.

But they are there — lurking under the radar — in this gaudy 9-1 start.


Contact Jeff Seidel: jseidel@freepress.com. Follow him on X @seideljeff. To read his recent columns, go to freep.com/sports/jeff-seidel.