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"Your division isn't going through Green Bay it's going through Detroit for the next five years" - Rex Ryan -
We are 27-7 in our last 34 regular season games (2 seasons worth of games)Comment
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Pride of Detroit Direct
By Ty Schalter, exclusively for Pride of Detroit
If you were alive and watching football in 2007, then the 2007 New England Patriots are the best football team you’ve ever seen.
The 2024 Detroit Lions might be better.
Do you have vivid memories of Tom Brady and Randy Moss playing pitch-and-catch over the heads of the rest of the league? Averaging a whopping 36.8 points per game with a top-five scoring defense on the other side of the ball? Hanging 50-burgers, winning slugfests, taking every team in the league’s best shot and breaking records all the way to the Super Bowl?
How often have you wondered what it would be like to root for a team like that—a team that’s favored to win every game they play, usually by a lot, and not only win every time but cover without seemingly breaking a sweat? A team that’s as fun to watch as they are dangerous, as well-prepared as they are talented, that consistently dominates up front but still dazzles with skill-position talent?
This, Detroit Lions fans, right now. This is what it’s like.
Remember the time the plucky boys in Honolulu Blue put together like a 10-win season and got stomped out by a really good team? You know, the kind with a great coach and an All-Pro quarterback and a roster full of future Hall of Famers? Every time—Washington in 1991, Philadelphia in ‘95, Green Bay multiple times—Lions fans have been reminded that there’s a difference between “good” and “great,” even when luck or pluck temporarily blurred the lines.
But Sunday’s results made it crystal clear: The Lions are the best team in football. Not only that, but as Jeremy Reisman pointed out, Detroit is off to the third-best start of the last 45 years. They’re No. 1 in scoring offense (33.6 points per game), No. 5 in scoring defense (17.7 points per game), and first in every overall team-strength metric under the sun (DVOA, PFF Overall, nflelo, Sports-Reference SRS, just asking people what they think, etc.).
Last year, there were real questions about just how good the Lions really were. The defense was soft at times, and banged-up at others; Jared Goff was closer to “arguably a Top 10 quarterback” than “arguably the league MVP.” Though they had some great resume wins and standout moments, they weren’t turning complete-game, three-phase dominations week after week.
This year, they are.
Despite undoubtedly missing the difference-making pass rush of DPOY candidate Aidan Hutchinson—and surely, about to miss the sideline-to-sideline production of workhorse linebacker Alex Anzalone—the defense has made a huge leap. Despite coordinator Aaron Glenn cranking up the blitz rate to a fifth-highest 34 percent to compensate for Hutchinson, the Lions’ lockdown secondary is allowing the lowest EPA per pass (-0.24) and third-lowest target separation (3.1), has allowed then joint-fewest passing TDs (seven) and nabbed the joint-second-most picks (14).
And the special teams are no less special; Jake Bates’ perfect field-goal kicking start is only the start of the advantage a unit featuring punter Jack Fox, returners Kalif Raymond and Khalil Dorsey, and one of the better coverage teams in the league give Detroit.
And as I wrote here last week, the dominant offensive line is the foundation on which an essentially perfect offensive house has been built. And despite all the nifty features—an elite two-tailback run game, maybe the league’s best young tight end and a WR corps featuring an All-Pro-in-residence and a breakout young deep threat—the consistent excellence from the quarterback is what ties it all together.
Yes, consistent, and yes, excellence.
He’s doing an opposite-2023, statistically: He ranks 10th in passing yards per game but first in success rate and yards per attempt; second in completion rate, touchdown rate, NFL passer rating, and EPA per dropback; third in completion rate over expected and adjusted net yards per attempt.
For decades, Lions fans have dreamed of cheering for an elite quarterback of the kind who always looked amazing on SportsCenter and on fantasy rosters. The kind who always seemed to will his team to win. The kind who would never, they’d insist on message boards or blog comment sections or Twitter, have the kind of day Scott Mitchell or Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff just had.
But Brett Favre and Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes all did and do have off days, or at least unlucky ones. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is leading basically every quarterback rate stat Goff isn’t, and he just put up a 66.1 passer rating in an 18-16 loss on Sunday. Joe Burrow leads all the counting stats (attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns), and his 4-7 Bengals are two games back of even wild-card position with just six left to play.
And Mahomes? Not only does he go through a four-to-six-week slump just about every year that inspires hyperventilating headlines about whether he and/or Andy Reid have been figured out, he’s currently tied with Jordan Love and Geno Smith for the most interceptions thrown in the NFL. Even so, he’s consistently gone on to beat Jackson, Burrow, and Goff’s next-most-likely-rival for the MVP Josh Allen in the playoffs.
We won’t know exactly how well this Lions team’s numbers will stack up to the 2007 Patriots’–or those of that 1991 Washington squad, the only other team to start hotter in DVOA than this year’s Lions—until the regular season is over. The Lions aren’t just the franchise every other NFL team wants to beat, they’re the franchise every other team wants to be. Detroit’s way of doing things will be every struggling team’s roadmap to success.
And like the 2007 Patriots, this level of excellence comes with a cost: Achieving anything less than winning the Super Bowl will be a disappointment.
So, between now and then, enjoy this team, Lions fans. Let go of the week-to-week stress of wondering if this team’s got it. Drink deeply of the feeling of being the overdogs, and savor the flavor of no-doubt wins. Hang on tight to the blowouts, the walkovers, the rivalry dunks and the revenge wins. Not only might this team be the best Lions team any Detroit fans will ever see, it might be one of the best NFL teams any NFL fans will ever see.
"I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken LComment
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Lions' upcoming opponent hanging around AFC playoff picture despite making a mess of QB situation
Justin Rogers
Nov 20
Allen Park — The Lions will wrap up their every-four-year tour of the AFC South this Sunday with a trip to Indianapolis. The last time the teams squared off at Lucas Oil Stadium was 2016. Thankfully, the scouting combine is held in the city annually or I’d suffer from sinus-clearing shrimp cocktail withdrawal.
Between these battles in Indy, the Lions hosted the Colts in 2020. Like most games from that dismal era, it didn’t go well for the hometown team. A nearly 40-year-old Philip Rivers — in what turned out to be his retirement tour — had one of the best performances of his final season, completing 23-of-33 for 262 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-21 thumping.
But unlike the other two teams from the AFC South division the Detroit hadn’t seen in four years, Houston and Tennessee, there’s been a surprising amount of roster continuity in Indianapolis.
To be fair, some of the players are on injured reserve, but this week’s foe has more than a dozen guys from that 2020 meeting still on the payroll, including five starting offensive and defensive linemen, running back Jonathan Taylor, wide receiver Michael Pittman and defensive backs Julian Blackmon and Kenny Moore.
That kind of stability is unusual, particularly after undergoing a coaching change, which the Colts did between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. They axed Frank Reich in the middle of the '22 campaign, hiring former Chargers and Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen the following offseason.
Additionally, since there might not be another spot to shoehorn in this tidbit, Steichen’s offensive coordinator is former Lions OC Jim Bob Cooter. This felt like something you needed to know.
So if so much is the same, what’s new with the Colts?
Well, if we’re only willing to go back to last season, the answer is not much. There might not be a team that did less in free agency, although the decision to swap Gardner Minshew for Joe Flacco as the backup quarterback has led to the most interesting storyline out of Indianapolis this season.
Here’s a brief recap before getting into it. The Colts had a pretty great run at QB between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, but when the latter abruptly retired ahead of the 2019 season, the team had to patchwork the position for a few years with Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, who they similarly ushered into retirement after just one season.
Finally bad enough to take a swing at a franchise QB in the draft, the Colts used the No. 4 pick in 2023 on ultra-athletic, but raw dual-threat Anthony Richardson.
The upside with Richardson was and remains enormous, with appropriate Cam Newton comparisons based on their build and physical tools. But after an injury-shortened rookie year, and some glaring struggles to start his second year, the Colts pulled the plug on Richardson and turned the keys over to Flacco.
On one hand, it was a fitting continuation of the Rivers and Ryan arc of past-expiration passers. However, the execution of the change was clunky, at best, and ignited a national conversation about organizations failing young quarterbacks. It didn't help that the Colts initially doubled down on their decision, before reversing course after two games and reinserting Richardson back into the starting lineup last week.
To the youngster's credit, it was one of the best performances of his very brief career. He completed 20-of-30 for 272 yards, a touchdown and zero interceptions in a win over the Jets.
Richardson’s arsenal is made up of the talented Taylor in the backfield, Pittman, a big-bodied option who splits his time outside and the slot, Alec Pierce, one of the game’s most underrated vertical threats, and Josh Downs, a shifty and efficient slot receiver who can rack up receptions in a hurry.
They might rank in the lower half of the league in yards and points, but when Taylor gets going and Richardson minimizes the miscues, the unit is loaded with explosive potential. Driving the length of the field for a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns against a good Jets defense last week was impressive.
Defensively, the Colts are less interesting. The team's only veteran addition of note this offseason was nose tackle Raekwon Davis. He's averaging fewer than 20 defensive snaps over the past month. In the draft, the team used its first-round pick on edge rusher Laiatu Latu, who has been OK, tallying 26 pressures and 3.0 sacks in his first 11 games.
Overall, the unit gives up a lot of yardage. They’re surrendering 374.5 yards per game, which ranks 28th. That’s troubling with a Lions team that just set its franchise's single-game yardage mark last weekend.
To the Colts’ credit, they limit the damage on the scoreboard. Their 22.7 average points against checks in closer to the middle of the pack. That’s fueled by an opportunistic group that’s generated 17 turnovers, including a league-leading nine fumble recoveries.
Email: jrogers@detroitfootball.net
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"I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken LComment
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Posted for whoever it was that thought Pascal wasn't even an NFL player a few weeks back, LOLOL
image.pngComment
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He has definitely been excellent against the run.Comment
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Adding Terrell Williams from the Tennessee Titans has made our Defense a truly successful and outstanding one, a defense that has the capability to get to and win a Super Bowl, despite all the injuries that we've gotten so far this season.Originally posted by Blue Lagoon58 View Post"I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken LComment
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Pressers and scrums: Montgomery draws lofty comps, LaPorta trending toward playing and how Lions view LB Long
Justin Rogers
Nov 20
Allen Park — The topic of the day on Wednesday was running back David Montgomery, who has quickly developed into one of the most respected players in the locker room in his season and a half with the squad. So much so that he earned a contract extension last month.
The conversation started with coach Dan Campbell, who was asked about the tandem of Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in relation to another outstanding backfield duo from the coach’s past; Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in New Orleans.
Campbell said both pairs found ways to elevate each other, but what made them special was the bond they shared off the field.
“I think David and Gibbs are like brothers,” Campbell said. “I really do, and I think David’s big brother and he’s not going to let anybody mess with him. That’s his guy.
“Now, he’ll mess with him, and if he does something wrong he’s going to let him know, but he takes him under his wing and I think they’ve elevated each other. He’s made Gibbs better and I think it has helped him, too. And when you have that, and you have that competition, you have that love for one another, just the whole thing, to me, they’re the perfect combination. It doesn’t come any better, in my opinion. You’ve got everything you need out of those two players, run or pass game.”
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The two are tracking toward a historic season, on pace for more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 32 touchdowns combined. Stylistically different, Montgomery does more damage between the tackles, where he’s proven time and time again he's difficult for the first defender to tackle.
Campbell was asked if Montgomery’s running style was reminiscent of another runner. The coach struggled to find a comparison, calling Montgomery a throwback, before reaching for a pair of Hall of Famers in Earl Campbell and Walter Payton, primarily because of the trio’s shared ability to stay on their feet.
“When I watch him, it just reminds me of some of the great ones, man, back in the heyday,” Campbell said. “I mean, they just, they don’t go down. So, freaking Earl Campbell, man, Earl Campbell ran like crazy. Walter Payton ran like crazy and would not go down. So, anyway, I think he’s rare. I think we’re fortunate to have him, and I can tell you this, the O-line loves blocking for that guy and anybody that plays with him, I mean, you want to talk about inspiring? That inspires you to want to block.”
Running backs coach Scottie Montgomery declined to offer his own comparison, defaulting to Campbell’s lofty choices. Still, I wanted to get the position coach’s perspective about what I feel is David Montgomery’s superpower, the ability to make tacklers miss in tight spaces.
The coach highlighted Montgomery’s contact balance and vision, the latter which is cultivated through film study, but emphasized the back's deceptive short-area quickness.
“Usually when you get up into the 215-220-225 (pounds), every time you go up, short-area quickness tends to drop a little bit. You can still be a big build-to-speed guy at that weight. But when you start to go up in weight, you start to lose some of this shiftiness. That's just God-given ability (he has) there that short-area quickness.”
“…And then, the final piece to all of that is, you're really, really good at short-area quickness when people are on their heels,” the coach continued. “He places people on their heels because of his ability to just run right through them."
It's impressive how well the observation lines up with Montgomery's measurables coming out of Iowa State. He posted below-average speed and explosion numbers at the scouting combine, but an elite time in the 3-cone drill, highlighting his ability to change directions and accelerate.
Hey, we still do a podcast
The latest episode, recorded Wednesday afternoon, includes a locker room chat with rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold.
Going into Indy, “Defenses are running out of answers” for Lions offense
Pace yourself
We’re entering the heart of one of the most physically demanding stretches of every season for the Lions; the period around the annual Thanksgiving classic. Add in a primetime game the Thursday after the holiday and the team will end up playing four times in 18 days.
The team has been replacing its Wednesday practices with walkthroughs for the past three weeks. It's something the Lions have done previously under coach Dan Campbell, but not this frequently. I asked the coach about the importance of load management during this time of year, helping keep guys relatively fresh for the stretch run.
“Every year has been different for us, and you’ve got to go with what you feel like is best for your team in that moment,” Campbell said. “Every year, it’s kind of evolved. I mean, last year we were still going (full speed). We were still practicing pretty good Wednesdays, Thursdays, but we also had a different schedule. We were a little bit younger.”
Campbell went on to clarify that the team wasn’t old, but more mature, with most of the core having played together two or three years. That means dialing back during this stretch is an added benefit of organizational continuity.
“…We’re not old, but we’ve played a lot of football together, so they kind of know what to expect,” Campbell said. “(We’ve) played with each other long enough, the staff’s been together, myself, the whole thing. So I feel like it was something we can handle, and if you can handle it, it does help. I feel like it helps you bounce back just a little bit quicker for these games. It gives you just a little more juice.”
Campbell did note the internal expectation with going lighter on Wednesday is the effort and intensity run hot the remainder of the week.
“The flip side of that is, OK, but tomorrow when we come in, we’re smoking,” he said. Just like we did last week, that practice should look like game time. We were flying and we were competing, and it will.”
Good news on the injury front
Because the Lions conducted a walkthrough, Wednesday’s practice participation report was an estimation. Still, it was all good news, with every player listed as a full participant.
That included tight end Sam LaPorta, who missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury. Before the report published, Campbell said the young tight end was trending in a positive direction.
“It’s questionable to above for LaPorta,” Campbell said. “I think it’s trending the right way.”
LaPorta has struggled to match the production from his record-setting rookie season, but prior to suffering the shoulder injury against the Texans, he was having his best game of the year. He finished that contest with three grabs for 66 yards and a touchdown.
Stats to watch
Quarterback Jared Goff was asked which statistics he looks at, if any, to validate his performance. He highlighted two:
“I’m definitely aware of completion percentage and sacks,” Goff said. “Those are the two that really matter to me. The other stuff’s fun, too, obviously …but if my completion percentage is high and I’m not taking sacks, then we’re in pretty good shape.”
Goff is currently second in the NFL in completion percentage, connecting on a career-best 73.0% of his throws. As far as sacks, among QBs who have played in 10 or more games, his 18 are the fifth fewest.
More importantly, Pro Football Focus has only faulted Goff for one of the sacks. That’s a notable improvement from last season, when he was blamed for five.
Feeling the power
This offseason, defensive line coach Terrell Williams helped defensive end Josh Paschal establish and embrace an identity of physicality. The results have been clear as the third-year defensive lineman is having his best season.
I asked Williams about his process for helping a player discover what they do best and getting them to lean into it.
“You can watch the tape and you have an idea of what you want certain players to look like,” Williams said. “…I think part of it is knowing the body types and knowing what their skill set is. We’re all gonna play a certain way, with a certain toughness and grit and all of those things, but then you got to figure out what can each — because a lot of times, we talk as coaches — this player can’t do this, this player can’t do that — well, our job is to figure out what they can do. Whatever they do well, let’s figure out what they do well and then just continue to build on that. And I think we’ve been able to do that with Josh and a couple of the other guys.”
Paschal’s numbers don’t pop off the page - he has 15 tackles, four for a loss, and 2.0 sacks through eight games — but Williams raved about the player’s value that doesn’t show up in the boxscore.
“A lot of times, you may look at a stat line to try to figure out a story of how a guy’s playing,” Williams said. “I would put this player up against anyone in the run game, as far as what he’s doing. He doesn’t always make the tackle, but when you go and watch the tape, I guarantee you, our opponent knows exactly who he is and what he does to tight ends and tackles and all of those things.”
Premium insurance
The Lions added veteran linebacker David Long Jr. to the practice squad earlier this week. That’s an unusually high-level addition this time of year. The 28-year-old, six-year veteran is coming off a season where he racked up a career-high 113 tackles, including nine for a loss.
The Lions have lost linebackers Derrick Barnes, Alex Anzalone and Jalen Reeves-Maybin to injured reserve this season, but for now, the team will bring Long along slowly, figuring out how he can contribute.
“He’s banked a lot of reps and played really good football,” Campbell said. “He’s really one of those guys — (he’s) got a knack for finding the ball. He’s an aggressive player, run-and-hit. So, it gave us a chance to have somebody that, if we need it, and he can acclimate to what we do, how we do things here, get on top of the playbook, then if we can use him, we’ll use him.
“In the meantime, it’s special teams and it’s insurance, is really the role right now,” Campbell said. “We’re excited to have him here and just see what he can do, let him compete like everybody else.”
Putting in the work
The Lions officially activated Brodric Martin off injured reserve ahead of Wednesday’s practice. Expectations have been tempered at every turn for the former third-round pick, but Williams offered a positive update on the second-year player’s contributions behind the scenes.
“He’s done a good job,” Williams said. “I think he was the scout team player of the week this past week. He’s done a really good job for us, and so have the other guys that have been playing.
“…You guys know the standard that (defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn) and (Campell) set here,” Williams said. “You’ve got to compete for a job. You don’t just walk in and jump right into the lineup. So we’ll see how the week goes and see where everything goes and go from there. But I like where he is right now. I like his mindset and he’s been doing a good job for us.”
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Last edited by whatever_gong82; Yesterday, 06:47 PM."I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken LComment
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I lived in Chicago during the Payton years and the comparison of Monty and Payton is a good one. Very similar styles for sure. It's high praise.Originally posted by whatever_gong82 View PostComment
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"I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken LComment
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Come on now, Jared, you're hearing things pal. That's not what he asked. He asked if it makes training easier. He didn't doubt how difficult gameday's are. All you needed to say was, "training days are always 100% where able regardless of the weekends result.Originally posted by whatever_gong82 View Post
Don't make us drag up Dpatnods "Goff Sucks" thread.
"...when Hibernian won the Scottish Cup final and that celebration, Sunshine on Leith? I don’t think there’s a better football celebration ever in the game.”
Sir Alex FergusonComment
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This was shown on last night's "Inside the Den." Look at the spinner for the wheel! Ha!!
20241120_193913.jpg#birdsarentrealComment
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Took me a minute to figure out what it was. Ha!I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it onComment
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Analysis: Lions' Branch as DPOY? Historically, it's a long shot, but there's a path to enter conversation
Justin Rogers
Nov 21
Allen Park — With each big hit, third-down breakup, and game-altering interception, there’s inevitably a Detroit Lions fan somewhere who says to another, ‘That’s the Defensive Player of the Year right there.”
While teammate Kerby Joseph is piecing together an All-Pro caliber season in his own right — pacing the NFL with seven interceptions — it’s Brian Branch’s all-around performance that has set the tone for Detroit’s defense, which ranks among the league’s best. Seemingly weekly, the second-year defensive back out of Alabama does something that makes you thank the football Gods he’s on your side.
But Defensive Player of the Year? Is it realistic to think Branch might be in the running, seamlessly stepping into the void created when Aidan Hutchinson — the betting favorite for the honor — suffered a broken leg in Week 5? Realistically, probably not.
Apologies for taking the wind out of your sails before we really get going, but the truth of the matter is the award has been largely reserved for pass rushers, much like the league’s MVP typically goes to a quarterback.
It’s been 14 years since a safety won Defensive Player of the Year. In 11 of the past 13 seasons, it’s gone to a player who has primarily played along the line of scrimmage, likely because impact up front is easier to discern on a week-to-week basis.
But for the sake of argument, let’s go over each of the past 10 years of voting — while also looking at the best safety from those seasons — to see how Branch’s 2024 pace stacks up to better determine whether there’s any shot he works his way into the conversation.
2023
Winner: Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (23 first-place votes)
Best safety: Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Antoine Winfield Jr.
What was it we said about the award being reserved for pass rushers? Last year, the top four finishers all fit the description, with Garrett edging out Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt and Dallas’ Micah Parsons.
Cornerback DaRon Bland, who led the league with nine interceptions, and set the NFL record by returning five of them for touchdowns, mustered only a single first-place vote and finished fifth.
The versatile Winfield was one spot back, showing up on three ballots, netting two votes for second place and one for third. In his fourth season, he started all 17 games, playing just shy of 1,100 snaps. Stuffing the stat sheet, he finished with 122 tackles, 6.0 sacks, three interceptions and a league-leading six forced fumbles.
How he received just 30 of 50 votes for the Associated Press' All-Pro first team is stunning.
2022
Winner: San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (46 first-place votes)
Best safety: Pittsburgh Steelers’ Minkah Fitzpatrick
The vote this season wasn’t close as Bosa ran away from the pack with a league-leading 18.5 sacks for the 13-4 49ers. The other four first-place votes went to the Chiefs’ Chris Jones, the Eagles’ Haason Reddick and the Jets’ Quinnen Williams.
In terms of off-ball defenders, Jets rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner topped the list at No. 8, drawing one second- and one third-place vote.
Fitzpatrick, who plays more of a centerfield role for the Steelers, delivered a career-high and league-leading six interceptions to go with 96 tackles (vs. just 10 whiffs) and 11 total pass defenses. That’s a great year, but only good enough to appear on a single DPOY ballot, a third-place vote.
The performance did earn Fitzpatrick 45 All-Pro first-team votes. No other safety received more than 13 in 2022.
2021
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt (42 first-place votes)
Best safety: Tennessee Titans’ Kevin Byard
The Steelers barely snuck into the playoffs in 2021, but matching Michael Strahan's single-season record (22.5) made Watt the easy choice.
This was the final year voters picked only one player for the award, instead of the current first, second and third place balloting. It’s a little surprising Watt wasn’t unanimous, given the milestone achievement. Cowboys rookie Micah Parson drew five votes after racking up 13.0 sacks and 67 pressures, while the perennially dominant Aaron Donald netted the final three with 13.5 sacks and 86 pressures.
Byard, meanwhile, netted 41 votes as a first-team All-Pro with five interceptions, 13 pass defenses and 88 tackles (five whiffs).
2020
Winner: Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald (27 first-place votes)
Best safety: Fitzpatrick
Watt finished with more sacks than Donald in 2020, registering an NFL-best 15.0, but voters felt Donald had the bigger overall impact. The Rams defender did register significantly more quarterback pressure, despite rushing more less advantageous interior alignments.
Those two took home 47 of the 50 votes with Xavien Howard snagging the final three. The Miami cornerback led the league in both interceptions (10) and pass defenses (20), allowing just 52.2% of the passes his direction to be completed.
It’s almost laughable Howard wasn’t a unanimous selection to the All-Pro first-team, netting 47 of the 50 votes.
As for safety, it’s debatable who had the best year. We gave the slight edge to Fitzpatrick (79 tackles, four interceptions, 11 pass defenses), but there’s a case to be made for Jessie Bates, Tyrann Mathieu or Jamal Adams. The latter racked up a career-best 9.5 sacks.
2019
Winner: New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore (21 first-place votes)
Best safety: Denver Broncos’ Justin Simmons
Gilmore broke the stranglehold of the defensive frontliners, likely because voters factored in team success. The second-, third- and fourth-place finishers all played for teams that missed the playoffs.
Chandler Jones, who scored 14 votes, had 19.0 sacks for a Cardinals team that won five games. Watt drew 10 votes for his 14.5 sacks, but the Steelers finished .500. And Shaq Barrett, despite leading the NFL with 19.5 sacks, earned just two votes for the 7-9 Buccaneers.
At safety, Adams and Fitzpatrick were named to the All-Pro first team, with 28 and 27 votes, respectively. We'd contend Simmons had the better year. Lacking the name value of the other two, the Broncos star made 93 tackles while missing just four, intercepted four balls, defended 15 total passes and allowed a paltry 32.1 passer rating when targeted in coverage.
2018
Winner: Donald (45 first-place votes)
Best safety: Chicago Bears’ Eddie Jackson
The freakiest year in a freaky career, Donald racked up what would end up a career-best 20.5 sacks and a league-leading 106 pressures.
It easily could have been unanimous, despite a really good season for Khalil Mack. In his first season with Chicago, the edge-rushing linebacker scored 12.5 sacks, six forced fumbles and an interception. That was good enough to pull five of the 50 votes away from Donald.
As you would expect, Donald was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded defender that year. Mack finished seventh. No. 2? That distinction belonged to Mack’s Chicago teammate, Jackson, who had a breakout performance in his second season.
A fourth-round draft pick in 2017, Jackson snagged six interceptions, returning two for touchdowns, while also forcing a pair of fumbles.
2017
Winner: Donald (23 first-place votes)
Best safety: Minnesota’s Harrison Smith
Donald’s first of three DPOY awards, he fended off a stiff challenge from Jacksonville’s Calais Campbell, who drew 17 votes after recording a career-best 14.5 sacks for the AFC South-winning Jaguars.
Donald had fewer sacks, but generated significantly more pressure. And even though it’s not how it’s supposed to work, he might have got some residual love for his All-Pro performances the previous two seasons.
In total, eight players received a vote for the award in 2017. Minnesota defensive backs Xavier Rhodes and Smith were among that group, each showing up on a single ballot.
Smith, a six-time Pro Bowler, earned his only first-team All-Pro selection for this campaign. He finished with 78 tackles (seven for a loss), five interceptions and 12 pass defenses, resulting in a passer rating of 22.0 (!) when the ball was thrown in his direction.
Like much of his career, Smith was barely asked to rush the passer, but when he did, he was impactful, recording 10 pressures and 1.5 sacks on 29 blitzes.
2016
Winner: Raiders outside linebacker Khalil Mack (18 first-place votes)
Best safety: New York Giants’ Landon Collins
In the closest balloting of the past decade, Mack bested Denver’s Von Miller by a single vote. Mack barely cracked the top 10 with 11.0 sacks, but he paced the league with 96 QB pressures and 20 tackles for loss. He also finished second with five forced fumbles, which has always been one of his calling cards.
Two safeties earned votes, led by Collins, who was starting a stretch of three consecutive Pro Bowl-caliber campaigns. Without a doubt, 2016 was his best season. He racked up 125 tackles (100 solo and nine for a loss), 4.0 sacks and five interceptions.
That was good enough for nine votes, the best showing for a safety since Troy Polamalu won the award in 2010.
2015
Winner: Houston Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt (37 first-place votes)
Best safety: Arizona Cardinals’ Tyrann Mathieu
Watt earned his second consecutive award, and third in four years, leading the league with 17.5 sacks and 29.5 tackles for a loss. Donald made a dent in the balloting, earning seven votes with 11.0 sacks and 79 pressures, but he’d have to wait a couple more years to break through.
Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman split the remaining six votes after the team’s 15-1 season.
When looking at the safety position that year, some might argue Mathieu was more of a nickelback, lining up in the slot the majority of his reps. Still, his versatility and production were undeniable. He finished with 89 tackles (11 for a loss), five interceptions and 17 pass defenses. And despite his 5-foot-9, 190-pound frame, he was stellar in run support.
His efforts earned him first-team All-Pro honors at safety with a league-best 31 votes.
2014
Winner: Watt (unanimous, 50 first-place votes)
Best safety: Detroit’s Glover Quin
In the only unanimous balloting since the award’s 1971 inception, Watt’s 20.5 sacks, 29 tackles for loss and 119 quarterback pressures were deemed untouchable by voters. It’s difficult to argue, although a little surprising given Kansas City’s Justin Houston fell a half-sack shy of the league record that season.
Like Simmons in 2019, it’s a shame Detroit’s Glover Quin wasn’t given proper recognition as a first-team All-Pro after leading the league with seven interceptions.
To be fair, Earl Thomas and Eric Weddle each had excellent seasons, with the latter offering far more versatility and run-stopping contributions than Quin and Thomas. But if we get a hindsight vote, the turnovers are a separator. Thomas and Weddle each had just one interception in 2014. The Seattle star did close the gap somewhat by forcing four fumbles to Quin's zero.
Back to this season
In nine games, Branch has registered 57 tackles (three for a loss), four interceptions, 13 pass defenses and a forced fumble. That puts him on pace for 101 tackles (five for a loss), seven interceptions, 23 pass defenses and two forced fumbles.
Those are incredible numbers, rivaling some of the best seasons by a safety in the best 10 years. And, frankly, it’s better than Polamalu’s stat line when eeked by Clay Matthews for the award in 2010. The Steelers standout had 63 tackles (six for a loss), seven interceptions and 11 PBUs that year.
But Polamalu had a couple things working in his favor. First and foremost, name recognition. He was one of the NFL's most marketable players on one of the league’s most popular franchises, having earned five Pro Bowl and four All-Pro selections coming into that season. Double birds in Green Bay aside, Branch is about as quiet and unassuming as they come off the field. It's a factor impossible to overlook.
Secondly, there was a lack of competition that season from defensive linemen. Matthews had just 13.5 sacks, while Polamalu's teammate, James Harrison, finished third with 10.5 sacks and two interceptions.
The latter argument is where Branch's case strengthens. This year's sack leaders, Trey Hendrickson and Dexter Lawrence, play for teams on the outside of the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the betting favor, T.J. Watt, is lagging behind his typical pace with just 7.5 sacks through 10 games. He does make up for that a bit by leading the league with four forced fumbles.
Still, if none of the brand names such as Watt or Garrett surge down the stretch, and Branch can maintain his current pace, maybe a “Heisman moment” late in the year can thrust him to the front of the conversation. A pick-six against San Francisco in Week 17 to lock up the NFC’s top seed might do the trick.
That’s a lot of words to tell you it’s a long shot. Recent history tells us that, repeatedly. If it’s going to happen, a lot of things need to break just right. And even then, it still might not be enough.
Email: jrogers@detroitfootball.net
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"I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken LComment
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