Lions News

[whatever_gong82]

Receivers/tight ends

Amon-Ra St. Brown improved in every statistical category from Year 1 to 2, and he’s made another leap this fall. St. Brown leads the Lions in receptions (57) and yards (665) despite missing a week with an abdominal injury. He’s remarkably consistent and is Goff’s go-to target in times of need. Josh Reynolds has been a dependable No. 2 despite his own injury issues. He’s given the Lions a viable deep threat at 18 yards per catch and delivered some of the game’s biggest plays in their upset of the Chiefs.

Kalif Raymond (18 catches, 231 yards) hasn’t had many opportunities as the Lions’ No. 3 receiver — he’s had more than four targets in a game once all year — but he’s caught most of what’s been thrown his way. The Lions have gotten minimal production from the rest of the receiving corps, though. Marvin Jones had five catches and two drops before he was released last month, and Jameson Williams struggles to catch the ball with his hands and track it in the air, which are less than ideal traits to have as a wide receiver. Campbell and others on the Lions’ coaching staff have said all the right things to downplay Williams’ struggles, but he’s been a disappointment in limited action this season and can’t be trusted right now in big spots.

Tight end has historically been one of the toughest positions for rookies to make an impact in the NFL, which makes what second-round pick Sam LaPorta is doing all the more impressive. LaPorta (43 catches, 434 yards) had a couple quiet games against top-tier linebacking corps from the Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but has otherwise been a steady intermediate target and capable run blocker. He has run-after-the-catch ability and he leads the Lions with four receiving touchdowns.

Sam LaPorta_10-8-2023.jpg

The Lions have gotten little production from their other tight ends, and Brock Wright is one of the lowest-graded tight ends by Pro Football Focus. As a unit, the Lions have had too many drops — 19, according to Pro Football Reference, with LaPorta and St. Brown (four each) leading the way. Grade: B-minus


Offensive line

It’s remarkable the Lions have been as efficient as they have on offense given the turnover they’ve had on the offensive line. They’ve started seven different combinations in eight games and Penei Sewell is the only Week 1 starter who has not missed time with injury. Sewell is an athletic freak and one of the best all-around tackles in the game. He’s been flagged five times this season (four times for holding, including once on a penalty that nullified a sack he allowed) but is right up there with St. Brown and Goff as the Lions’ best offensive players this season.


Graham Glasgow won’t grade as highly as Sewell, but he’s been just as valuable in his own way. He’s made starts at all three interior line positions and I thought he was the Lions’ best lineman in their Week 6 win over the Bucs. Left tackle Taylor Decker has allowed four sacks this season according to the Free Press’ charting of plays, but he deserves extra credit for gutting through an ankle injury that’s nagged him since Week 1 and kept him out of two games.

Like Decker, center Frank Ragnow has been a constant despite a degenerative toe condition that costs him practice time. He has some occasional slips in pass protection, but he hasn’t allowed a sack this season and he’s always on top of his line calls. The Lions have gotten less consistent play from the second guard spot. Jonah Jackson has missed three games with an ankle injury, Halapoulivaati Vaitai looks to be on his last legs and rookie Colby Sorsdal has been solid for a fifth-round pick but remains clearly a work in progress.

Collectively, the line has played a huge hand in the Lions’ rushing success and I’ve faulted them for only 11 of the team’s 17 sacks allowed (including the one nullified by penalty). Grade: A-minus


Defensive line

The sum has been greater than the parts with the Lions defense in many ways as the unit has been very good against the run and on third downs but has only a few standout individual performers. Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill have been the most consistent forces up front. Hutchinson was NFC Defensive Player of the Week after a two-sack game against the Falcons. He has a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and an interception to go with 4.5 sacks this season, and his 28 pressures are two fewer than he had all of last year, according to Pro Football Reference.


McNeill (four sacks) is the only other defensive lineman with more than two sacks. He’s been the team’s best interior run defender and pass rusher, and has been disruptive inside in every game but a Week 2 loss to the Seahawks. The rest of the Lions’ interior line has been less consistent. Isaiah Buggs was inactive to start the year and again last week against the Raiders, Benito Jones has one tackle for loss in eight games and rookie Brodric Martin has barely played.

The Lions have not gotten much production from their edge defenders other than Hutchinson, though Julian Okwara has flashed some pass rush ability. John Cominsky’s contributions often go unnoticed running pass rush games on the line to free up Hutchinson and others, but Charles Harris and Romeo Okwara have been mostly non-factors.

As a group, the Lions need to do a better job rushing the quarterback. They have 21 sacks this season, but have five games with one or no sacks and sometimes rely too much on the blitz because they don’t win enough one-on-ones. Grade: B


Linebackers

Alex Anzalone is having the best year of his career after moving full-time from middle to weakside linebacker, and he’s right up there with Hutchinson as the Lions’ defensive MVP. He leads the Lions with 57 tackles, including five for loss, has three sacks and four passes defensed. By changing his position, the Lions have reaped the benefits of Anzalone’s coverage abilities and have been able to unleash him more as a blitzer.


Derrick Barnes and Jack Campbell have split time at the middle linebacker position. Barnes doesn’t make as many splash plays as Anzalone — one sack, one forced fumble, two tackles for loss — but he’s been a key cog in the Lions’ second-ranked rush defense and rebounded from a poor game against the Ravens with one of his best performances of the year last week against Las Vegas.

Campbell struggled against the Ravens, too, but the Lions like him enough to try to wedge him into the rotation at times at strong side linebacker. He generally seems to be around the ball and always plays hard, though teams have used his aggression against him at times.

“We all love that player to death because every little thing matters to him and every mistake he takes it to heart, and you really try to get that player to get onto the next play because he cares so much,” defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said. “So like that player has to play as much as possible because he’s a damn good player.” Grade: A-minus


Defensive backs

The Lions are a middle-of-the-pack pass defense at 220.1 yards per game, and while coverage is goes hand-in-hand with pass rush, the secondary has let too many players roam free in recent weeks, even if quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo have not been able to get them the ball. Collectively, the group needs to be better with its eye discipline going forward, and the safety position in particular can help by making more impact plays.


Cam Sutton has limited opponents to 55% completion percentage on balls thrown his way, though he has one pass deflection and zero interceptions on the year. Jerry Jacobs leads the Lions with three picks. He baited Bryce Young into one of those turnovers, got a second off a deflection and a third from a coverage call. He seems to be all the way back from the ACL injury that cut into his 2022 season, though he did have a rough game against DK Metcalf and the Seahawks and he leads the Lions with seven penalties.

Rookie Brian Branch has handled slot cornerback duties with aplomb. He took a Patrick Mahomes interception to the house in Week 1 and had 11 tackles, including three for a loss, against the Falcons. He’s a hard hitter with great football instincts who should start for a long time.

At safety, Tracy Walker let a couple potential interceptions slip through his hands early, and Kerby Joseph final got one on a terrible throw by Garoppolo last week. Secondary coach Brian Duker said teams have been reluctant to challenge the Lions deep down the middle of the field because of Joseph’s range. C.J. Gardner-Johnson played well in two game before suffering a torn pectoral muscle. He could be a difference maker if he returns in the playoffs. Grade: B


Special teams

The Lions have an edge on special teams over most teams they face, even though their place kicking remains suspect. Riley Patterson is a respectable 11 for 13 on field goals, but he shanked a 26-yarder last week and he doesn’t offer much from distance. Patterson has attempted just two kicks of 45-plus yards this season with one make.


Jack Fox’s numbers don’t jump off the page punting, with averages of 45.5 yards gross and 42.4 yards net. But he’s mostly avoided touchbacks (one in 27 punts, 13 of which have landed inside the 20) and he’s one of the reasons the Lions are one of the best kick cover teams in the NFL. The Lions have forced opponents to return a league-high 17 kicks this year, while most of the rest of the league is in single digits.

Raymond is a solid punt returner. He’s yet to break a big return this year, but the Lions rank 10th in punt return average and are top-10 in both kick and punt return against. Jalen Reeves-Maybin (seven tackles) has been the Lions’ best special teams player this season, and Chase Lucas and Khalil Dorsey also have shined in that role. As a team, the Lions have committed six penalties in the kick game. Grade: A-minus


Coaching

Dan Campbell set the tone for the season early in Week 1, when he called a fake punt from his own 17-yard line against the Chiefs. Reeves-Maybin converted for a first down, and the Lions marched down the field and scored a touchdown. They have not tried a fake since, but Campbell’s trust in his players and aggressive approach are big reasons why he is a favorite for Coach of the Year.

According to the analytics site Sumer Sports, Campbell leads all NFL head coaches in win percentage gained through his decision making. You can quibble with his clock management late in regulation against the Seahawks, though I was on board with his approach. But beyond the in-game decisions, Campbell and his staff have had players ready and at the top of their game every week except against Baltimore.

Coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn will be top candidates for head coaching jobs in January, and both have done a good job navigating injuries and maximizing their young talent. The Lions have had some red zone struggles on offense, but Johnson has been his usual creative self designing plays and incorporating motion into his sets. And while they looked ill-prepared for Jackson defensively, Glenn bottled up a good Chiefs offense in Week 1 and has gotten continual growth out of his unit. Grade: A-minus


Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

[jaadam4]

Not ready to throw in the towel on JaMo just yet.

Pickens is really dammed good and im starting to think both he and JaMo will need fresh starts after this season

[dpatnod]

I have really conflicting thoughts on Jamo. Super happy if he turns out awesome. But a lot..... eh, man I just don't know.......

I hope he makes me feel dumb for ever doubting. But.... Lions history.....

Not at all related..... I will give D'Andre Swift props tonight though. Good job young man. Nice season going. Hope he stays healthy (finally).

[jaadam4]

I have really conflicting thoughts on Jamo. Super happy if he turns out awesome. But a lot..... eh, man I just don't know.......

I hope he makes me feel dumb for ever doubting. But.... Lions history.....

Not at all related..... I will give D'Andre Swift props tonight though. Good job young man. Nice season going. Hope he stays healthy (finally).

I don't think it has anything to do with Lions history I just think he might need a change of scenery. First round picks come with that burden of being picked that high but he even had a free pass because he was injured last year. I just don't see it with his hands but going back to that TB catch. There's not many that can take their eye off the ball and come back with a defender on him. It was an insanely difficult catch.

I'm like you, I hope I'm wrong and he just crushes it from here on out. Hell St Brown is one of the best WRs we've ever had and it took him 3-4 games his rookie year to really get it going but once he did its been crazy. Maybe he just needs a bit more time and the bye week practices might help

[-Deborah-]

Not at all related..... I will give D'Andre Swift props tonight though. Good job young man. Nice season going. Hope he stays healthy (finally).

I swear I saw him fumble the ball twice in the short period I watched that game last night. Glad he's having a good season, but I'm fine with him not being a Lion.

[DanO]

I swear I saw him fumble the ball twice in the short period I watched that game last night. Glad he's having a good season, but I'm fine with him not being a Lion.

I'm pretty sure he did. I know he recovered his own fumble once. He was. lucky to do that. I thought the same thing. No worries he's no longer a Lion. I like our RB position.

[jaadam4]

Over the last 6 games Swifts numbers are

90 carries for 306 yards. That's 3.4 yards per carry. Besides those 2 huge games there hasn't been much to write home about for Swift which is always his MO. Has a few gigantic games then falls off the map.

[Mainevent]

Yeah, was just going to say, Swift has been Swifting - 2 monster games and then almost replacement level the rest of the time. He's also not nearly as effective as a pass catcher, but with the receivers Philly has and Hurts ability to run, that's understandable to an extent.

[whatever_gong82]

A Detroit Lions-free Sunday still provided plenty of clues to this season's ultimate fate



Jeff Seidel
Detroit Free Press


Halfway through the Detroit Lions' season — give or take a game — it’s time to put things into perspective. We didn't have a Lions game to watch Sunday, but there were plenty of options on the remote to describe this campaign ... TV-style.


"Love It Or List It"


Lions general manager Brad Holmes has started a complete renovation on the Lions’ roster, tearing it down to the studs and rebuilding it with draft picks. But it's not done, which is important to keep in mind. Holmes could have made a significant move at the trade deadline, giving up future draft picks and trying to add pieces to win now, thanks to the team's great position. But he stayed the course. He stuck with his guys, adding only Donovan Peoples-Jones while giving up a mere sixth-round pick for the former Detroit Cass Tech star.

Jared Goff vs Las Vegas Raiders_10-30-2023.jpg

We won’t know for months if Holmes' strategy was a good decision, or if he wasted a chance to win now.

And we won’t know for years how many chances like this season the Lions will get.


But Holmes’ formulative years were spent with the St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams, an organization that had a basic working premise: Trade everything not nailed down. (And if it is nailed down, get a hammer and pry it loose.)



That wheeling and dealing led to a Super Bowl title, led by former Lions QB Matthew Stafford. Good for them.

But the Rams were unable to find sustained success; they went 5-12 in their Super Bowl follow-up last season and dropped to 3-6 this year.


That Holmes didn’t deal his future picks tells me he learned from the Rams’ mistakes. He is trying to build for the long term, trying to create a sustained winner and not just cash in for one year.


“Yeah, I think, ultimately, we said — Brad and I said from Day 1, man, we have a plan in place that we don’t want to alter,” coach Dan Campbell told reporters last week. “We don’t want to mess with that and we’re in Year 3 of this right now, our beginning of Year 3, and everything had to be right. I just go back — it had to be the right player, it had to be the right fit and it had to be the right price, all three of those, and that’s not an easy thing to do, but that’s how we look at it. And so, you know what? We found one.”



"60 Minutes"


It's a Sunday tradition on CBS, which will broadcast the Lions' next game: Tick tick tick tick tick ... I’m planting my flag right here. Obviously, it’s one game at a time, and the players can’t look ahead, but I can — even beyond Sunday's game against the L.A. Chargers. The most important, ahem, 60 minutes looming in the future will be against Dallas on Dec. 30 (a Saturday, actually). And it will determine where the Lions will open the playoffs: at Ford Field or on the road.


"The Good Doctor"


The Lions are in a tremendous position, at 6-2 and still leading the NFC North by 1½ games despite Minnesota's four-game win streak.

Even better? The Lions should get healthy soon.



Offensive linemen Jonah Jackson (ankle) and Frank Ragnow (calf) should be back Sunday, which will offer a boost to the offense.

And running back David Montgomery, who has been out with a rib injury, is expected back as well.



Jahmyr Gibbs was fantastic against the Las Vegas Raiders last Monday, but Montgomery has been outstanding all season when healthy. With this team, everything starts with the run. And having two healthy running backs will give this team a huge advantage.

“I think we’re going to get reinforcements back when we get back for the Chargers, that are going to be critical to helping us,” Campbell said last week. “Certainly, it’ll only help us. And then we’ve got a number of guys that, just the nature of the way we play, that I think, just to get a little more energy back, get their legs back under them.”


"Whose Line Is It Anyway?"


There’s an old adage about offensive lines: The best ones grow together over time. Consistency requires stability and healthy bodies. It requires just being together, playing together.

But the Lions have done it the hard way, starting seven different offensive line combinations in eight games.


That, in itself, is remarkable, winning despite that kind of instability.

The Lions' offensive line has been so strong, so consistent — no matter who is in the game — that we have almost come to expect it.



The credit goes to offensive line coach Hank Fraley.


"Survivor"


If the Lions don't want their torch extinguished, either in the regular season or the playoffs, at some point, it likely will come down to a field goal.

Lions kicker Riley Patterson is 11-for-13 this season, which offers some comfort. He has experience kicking in the playoffs — he made all three of his field goal tries with the Jacksonville Jaguars in January — which is fantastic. Granted, it was just two games. But he won’t freak out.

Detroit Lions kicker Riley Patterson_10-30-2023.jpg

But it's hardly an immunity idol: His career long is just 53 yards and he’s just 3-for-6 from 50 yards or more.

Which is concerning.


And it’s bound to impact the Lions at some point, setting up a huge fourth-down play when a strong-legged kicker could go for it but the Lions will be forced to gamble.


"The Voice"


To this point, the Lions' most impressive success has been their response to last month's disaster against the Baltimore Ravens. In days of old, this team would have folded the following week against the Raiders, especially with an extra day to mull it over.

But Campbell has such a strong message, such a strong voice, that he got this team back on track.


So even if the Lions drop an unexpected game during the regular season — and this is the NFL, so it’s bound to happen — I don’t think it will linger.

Because of that voice, setting the tone.

Detroit Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell_10-30-2023.jpg

"The Equalizer"

It’s time to give defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn credit. He has turned this into a top-10 defense. And it starts with stopping the run.


"The Neighborhood"

The Lions are in first place in the NFC North, and nobody looks scary anymore. Not the Green Bay Packers. Not the Chicago Bears. Not even the Vikings, who won their first game with Joshua Dobbs at QB in place of former MSU standout Kirk Cousins, who's out for the season.


"Top Chef"

So who's the one player — aside from the obvious choice of QB Jared Goff — who will be the most important for the Lions the rest of this season?

You could make an argument for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Or Aidan Hutchinson. Or Gibbs or Montgomery.


Part of me thinks rookie defensive back Brian Branch will have a huge impact the rest of the way, if he can stay healthy and continue to take steps forward.


Linebacker Alex Anzalone has played fantastic, and he is so smart that he’s like a coach on the field.

As the names went through my head, it dawned on me: That’s the beauty of this team. There is so much talent at the offensive skill positions, so many cogs on the offensive line, so many improving players on defense ... I don’t think it will come down to one player. There is no “Top Chef,” and that’s a huge credit to Holmes and the roster he is building, a group of diverse ingredients sure to satisfy almost any palate.


Contact Jeff Seidel at jseidel@freepress.com or follow him @seideljeff

[chemiclord]

The most important, ahem, 60 minutes looming in the future will be against Dallas on Dec. 30 (a Saturday, actually). And it will determine where the Lions will open the playoffs: at Ford Field or on the road.

I disagree. The two Minnesota games are the ones that will determine where the Lions will open the playoffs, because those will likely determine who wins the NFC North.

The Dallas game will likely have a huge say in how many home games the Lions potentially will have in the playoffs.

[LightninBoy]

I disagree. The two Minnesota games are the ones that will determine where the Lions will open the playoffs, because those will likely determine who wins the NFC North.

If the Lions need a win the last week against the Vikings to secure the North, then something has gone terribly wrong. Its more likely the Lions are sitting starters because the game doesn't matter.

Edit: that said the statement you quoted is - odd. Win the North and the Lions get a home playoff game. And the Vikings games play more into the division win.

[jaadam4]

If the Lions need a win the last week against the Vikings to secure the North, then something has gone terribly wrong. Its more likely the Lions are sitting starters because the game doesn't matter.

Amen

[jaadam4]

It was really impressive what Dobbs came in and did. That’s the shit legends are made of but Dobbs isn’t a legend and Minnesota isn’t good.

Even when Cousins and Jefferson were playing they sucked. The Vikings are good enough to finish hovering around .500 and in 2nd place in the division

Thats about it

[whatever_gong82]

Lions predictions at NFL midseason: Detroit wins the NFC North — and a playoff game


Detroit Lions players celebrating.jpg

By Colton Pouncy
6h ago


The Detroit Lions entered the season with goals of making the playoffs, winning the division and seeing what happens from there. It was the first time leadership has openly declared the Lions were ready to compete, ready to push for the playoffs and ready to emerge from their rebuild.


“It’s about raising the expectations, you know?” coach Dan Campbell said at the owners’ meetings in March. “We need to be thinking that way. Everything about what we do has to have that type of purpose. Our standard has always been about winning, man. You’re trying to win every game. But ultimately, I think, to take the next step, you’re shooting for the division.”

Through eight games, the Lions have positioned themselves to accomplish those goals. They’re 6-2 and atop a struggling NFC North division. They have the second-best record in the NFC, an offense that can score with anyone, a much-improved defense and a team of budding young talent. It’s a good spot to be in.


At the midway point, we’ve seen enough to determine the Lions are a good football team. But what will the second half bring?

Here are some predictions.


Three Lions players will make All-Rookie teams


Detroit’s 2023 NFL Draft was about adding impact players who could contribute right away and help the team win. GM Brad Holmes said as much on the final day of the draft, and his vision is clear given the success of the team and its rookies.

Ultimately, the Lions left draft weekend with eight draft picks. Seven of them have already played this season. The only one who hasn’t is quarterback Hendon Hooker, who’s still on IR as he works his way back from a torn ACL.


Brian Branch began his career with a pick six of Patrick Mahomes and has been one of the better rookie defenders — and one of the league’s best nickels period — when healthy. Sam LaPorta has played like one of the best tight ends in football, a remarkable feat considering the position he plays. And Jahmyr Gibbs, perhaps a little late to the party, had a breakout game against the Raiders with 189 scrimmage yards, demonstrating all the reasons why the Lions drafted him 12th overall. Those three look like locks for All-Rookie teams if health permits, and it’s not too late for linebacker Jack Campbell to join them as the game continues to slow down for him.

Aidan Hutchinson and Maxx Crosby exchanging game jerseys.jpg

Aidan Hutchinson will be in DPOY conversation, but won’t win


Hutchinson has been an absolute menace this year, even if his sack total (4 1/2) doesn’t reflect it.

His 46 pressures rank second in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus, trailing only Maxx Crosby’s 47 through eight weeks. His pass rush win rate of 18.7 percent is 10th in the NFL. He’s been the best player on a much-improved Lions defense that ranks seventh in yards allowed per game and second in rushing defense. Per BetMGM, Hutchinson has the fourth-best odds to win the award at +1800, trailing only Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt.


Hutchinson will likely need to improve his traditional stats (sacks, TFLs, etc.) but he’s been one of the better defenders in the NFL this season. There’s no reason to think he can’t remain in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion, even if he doesn’t ultimately win it.



Dan Campbell will win Coach of the Year


It’s a stacked race for Coach of the Year. Doug Pederson has the Jaguars at 6-2, John Harbaugh continues to win in Baltimore and Mike McDaniel, Pete Carroll, Nick Sirianni, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan should remain in the mix with winning teams.

But if the Lions accomplish their goals this season, it’ll be hard not to hand the award to Campbell. By his third season, he has the Lions at 6-2, near the top of the NFC standings, staring down this franchise’s first division title in 30 years. He’d have the record and the narrative on his side. That’s a powerful combo.

Jared Goff was a 2022 Pro Bowl alternate for the NFC.jpg

The Lions will have at least six Pro Bowlers


Barring a Super Bowl run, it’s safe to say the Lions will be well-represented at the Pro Bowl.

Winning teams tend to warrant more players in the Pro Bowl, and the Lions have several deserving candidates. Center Frank Ragnow was voted in last year and continues to play at a high level. Right tackle Penei Sewell, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and quarterback Jared Goff made it in as alternates a year ago and have been even better this season. Hutchinson seems like a lock and at this rate, LaPorta isn’t far behind. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill has been excellent this season and could earn the nod for the first time in his career. A few others could work their way into the conversation by the end of the year.

Six might be ambitious, but it’s within reason.


The Lions will win their division for the first time in 30 years


The last time the Lions won their division, it was called the NFC Central. Yes, it’s been that long. It was 1993, to be exact. But with the way the team is playing this season, and the way the rest of the division looks, it would be a major letdown if the Lions somehow don’t win the NFC North this season.

Look around the division. The Bears (2-7) have yet to turn the corner and are still rebuilding. The Packers (3-5) haven’t been much better, though they beat the Rams on Sunday after losing four straight. And while the Vikings (5-4) should be commended for winning four straight, quarterback Kirk Cousins is still out for the rest of the season with a torn Achilles. The Lions have five more games against these teams. This division is Detroit’s for the taking. It’s clearly head and shoulders above the rest.



The Lions will lock up the NFC’s No. 2 seed


I don’t feel great about this, but at the very least, there’s a path to the No. 2 seed in the NFC for the Lions.


Let’s start with the obvious: They’re already slotted in as the NFC’s 2-seed through eight games. That’s half a season of data that tells us the Lions are a capable football team. And looking at their second-half schedule, along with the schedules of other contenders, the Lions have the least-daunting road ahead.

Detroit’s remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .434 — the fourth-easiest in the NFL. They’ll face the Chargers (3-4), Bears (twice), Packers, Saints (5-4), Broncos (3-5), Vikings (twice) and the Cowboys (5-3).


Meanwhile, here’s how it stacks up for others in the NFC:

Cowboys: eighth-hardest schedule (.532)
49ers: sixth-hardest schedule (.545)
Seahawks: 14th-hardest schedule (.513)


The Eagles have the 10th-easiest (.471) remaining schedule. The Lions will have to take care of business, but they are well-positioned for a strong finish that could help them capture the No. 2 seed. In theory, that would help them accomplish the final prediction on this list.


The Lions will win their first playoff game since the 1991 season


If the Lions lock up the No. 2 seed, I feel confident in their chances of beating the teams in contention for the No. 7 seed.


Minnesota would be starting either a rookie QB in Jaren Hall or newcomer Joshua Dobbs. The Vikings have an improved defense, but it’ll be hard for them to make up for the absence of Cousins. None of the other teams potentially in the mix — the Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, Rams or Commanders — would be favored over the Lions at this point. Detroit has already beaten Atlanta and Tampa Bay, and faces New Orleans on Dec. 3.

If Detroit falls to the No. 3 seed and finds itself facing one of Dallas, Seattle or San Francisco, that’s a different story, of course. Finishing strong down the stretch and locking up the No. 2 seed is of the utmost importance. But at the very least, it appears the Lions are set to host a playoff game at Ford Field. Don’t underestimate the impact of home-field advantage.


Regardless, though, the Lions have proven capable of hanging with some of the NFL’s best the last two seasons — even in losses. They lost by 4 points or less to the Eagles, Dolphins and Bills last season, and beat the Jaguars 40-14. This season, they held Mahomes in check and won in Week 1, went down to the wire with the Seahawks and have largely been competitive in most of their games (if you burn the Ravens tape).

This feels like the year they get it done. What happens from there is up for discussion.


Colton Pouncy is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Detroit Lions. He previously covered Michigan State football and basketball for the company, and covered sports for The Tennessean in Nashville prior to joining The Athletic. Follow Colton on Twitter @colton_pouncy

[El Axe]

The Eagles may technically have the 10th easiest schedule remaining, but that's a mirage because their last three games are against the Giants twice and the Cardinals. That's a combined 5-22 for those three games which makes their schedule appear easy.

Here are the Eagles next 5 games: @ KC, v Buffalo, v SF, @ Dallas, @ Seattle .

I'm not sure you could put together a more difficult 5 game stretch if you tried. Worse is that combined with their nailbiter v Dallas yesterday, it's particularly difficult to be up for 6 games in a row like that.