Chiefs run offense vs. Lions run defense
Statistically, the Chiefs were a bottom-half-of-the-NFL rushing offense last year at 115.9 yards per game, but they were effective rushing when they put the ball on the ground, averaging more yards per attempt (4.72) than the Lions (4.54).
Isiah Pacheco won the starting job last season as a seventh-round pick because of his physical rushing style and appears healthy after missing much of the preseason with a shoulder injury. Jerrick McKinnon is Kansas City’s change-of-pace back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire should see time as the No. 3. Like the Lions, the Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
The Lions made a change at nose tackle, with Benito Jones beating out Isaiah Buggs for the starting job, but mostly return the same front seven they had last year. Charles Harris is back from injury at outside linebacker, and he’s top-notching as an edge run defender. The Lions need Derrick Barnes to build on his strong preseason if he starts at linebacker in the middle of the defense. Edge: Chiefs
Chiefs pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn called Mahomes “a special player” who is “going to wear a gold jacket at some point,” and it’s not an exaggeration to say he’s the best quarterback in the NFL. A two-time MVP, Mahomes can be magical on the field. He throws receivers open from a variety of arm angles, extends plays in the pocket with his feet and has an uncanny connection with Kelce at tight end.
The Chiefs don’t have any superstars at receiver, but the unit plays up because of who is throwing the ball. Skyy Moore could take a major leap in his second season given his connection with Mahomes, and Kadarius Toney showed big-play ability in his limited time with the Chiefs last season after coming over in a trade with the New York Giants. Toney is expected to play Thursday after missing time in camp with a knee injury, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling had a career-high 42 catches last season in his first year with the Chiefs.
The Lions overhauled their secondary this offseason and they expect the group to be a strength this fall. Cam Sutton and Jerry Jacobs will start at cornerback, with C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Kerby Joseph at safety and Brian Branch in the slot. There are a lot of playmakers in the back end, but it will be incumbent upon Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Josh Paschal to get contained pressure on Mahomes or he will pick the Lions apart. Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
The Lions have fielded one of the NFL’s best special teams units for two years running under Dave Fipp, and given the improved talent on the roster, that’s not likely to change this fall. Three starting-caliber linebackers, Barnes, Jack Campbell and Malcolm Rodriguez, will play key roles on the coverage units and Raymond is one of the best punt returners in the NFL. The Lions do have a question at kicker, where Riley Patterson won the job with a mediocre camp. Field goals beyond 50 yards are a roll of the dice, but Fipp and Campbell love to gamble on fourth down and with trick special teams plays, especially in big games, so that might not be a huge issue Thursday.
The Chiefs finished last in Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings last season — the Lions were sixth — in large part because they lost five fumbles on returns and dealt with injuries to kicker Harrison Butker. Butker is healthy now, Richie James should stabilize the return positions, and Kansas City still has top-notch talent for its cover units and one of the league’s most respect coordinators in Dave Toub. Punter Tommy Townsend was the best punter in the NFL last year. Edge: Chiefs
Prediction
The Lions have had Sept. 7 circled on their calendar since they found out they drew the defending champs in the NFL’s kickoff game in May. As Anzalone said Monday, “It’s a great stage” and big proving ground “for a lot of us.” The Lions believe they stack up well with the Chiefs. They caught a break with Jones’ holdout, and they haven’t hid from the fact that Thursday is a chance to announce their presence as a legitimate Super Bowl contender to the entire league.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions pull the upset, but I’m not predicting it. Mahomes is out-of-this-world good, Arrowhead is one of the best homefield advantages in football, and the environment will be electric for the banner-raising ceremony the Chiefs never really had after their last Super Bowl because of COVID-19. Defending champs have won four of their past five openers and Kansas City has won eight straight in Week 1, five by double digits. Pick: Chiefs 31, Lions 27
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