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2022 NFL redraft: Sauce Gardner to No. 1, Garrett Wilson leads WR reset of top 10

Nick Baumgardner

Apr 14, 2023




In football, grading in the moment is impossible. Grading an entire draft within a year is also pretty difficult, but it’s possible the year provides evidence of true progress and, perhaps, adjusts future outlooks. Context matters so much in football, and it’s everything when determining how a rookie is performing in the NFL.


That said, let’s go back a year and look at the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. How might things shake out if that draft were held again today?

(Note: The draft order here is as it was when Round 1 began — before any draft-day trades were made.)



1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati


Original pick: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia


It didn’t take very long before Gardner not only looked like the best rookie but arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, regardless of age. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder can do everything — either on an island or in zone — and is the prototype for the modern CB1 moving forward. This is the easiest pick in hindsight.



2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan



Original pick: Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan


If it weren’t for Gardner’s special rookie year, Hutchinson (whom the Lions also picked in real life, obviously) would have been the Defensive Rookie of the Year without much argument. He showed a bit of what he can do for a defense in his first year — pass rush, run defense, pass coverage — and should continue to improve. Detroit got exactly what it wanted.



3. Houston Texas: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State


Original pick: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU


Is this high for a receiver? Maybe, but there weren’t three better first-year players last season than Wilson. You could argue there weren’t two. Wilson played for a Jets team that had no serious answer at quarterback and still put together a marvelous rookie campaign with 1,103 receiving yards and 22 forced missed tackles — the latter placing him second only to Deebo Samuel among full-time starting receivers.


4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon


Original pick: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati


Starting the year injured was hardly ideal, and it pushed Thibodeaux’s rookie-hiccup stage deeper into the season than the Giants would’ve liked. However, he found a groove toward the middle of the year, especially after a nine-pressure game at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Despite the delayed start, Thibodeaux still finished with 45 pressures, third most among rookie edges.


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5. New York Giants: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State


Original pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon


It’s debatable whether Olave should be above Wilson. The pair played on the same college team, shared reps and learned how to be pros by challenging each other. Both were outstanding as rookies, too. Olave, who took reps all over the Saints’ offensive formations, led all major rookie contributors with 2.42 yards per route run and also logged a 14.9-yard average depth of target. A true weapon.


6. Carolina Panthers: Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa


Original pick: Ikem Ekwonu, OL, N.C. State


It’s hard to briefly summarize just how impressive Smith’s performance was as a rookie. The Cowboys drafted him at No. 24 to be a guard, but he wound up starting Week 1 at left tackle and never really looked back. Though there may be quibbles with who the top rookie offensive lineman was last season, it’s impossible to argue against Smith being one of the biggest steals (perhaps the biggest steal) in last year’s draft.


7. New York Giants: Ikem Ekwonu, OL, NC State


Original pick: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama


We’ll say the Giants, so far, went 1-for-2 in the top 10 (more on that in a bit). In this redraft, the Giants already grabbed a receiver (Olave), so we move to the next OT on my list — which is still Ekwonu, who falls just one spot from his original pick. The 22-year-old had an up-and-down rookie year, but that was expected by anyone familiar with his college film. His traits are still undeniable, though. He had his flashes and really found a groove in the middle of the year before wearing down a bit late.



8. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR, USC


Original pick: Drake London, WR, USC


The Falcons get (mock) rewarded for making a great pick last year. The top receiver trio here could be pretty memorable if health and quarterbacks cooperate over time. London, after fighting off a preseason injury, was consistently very good for an Atlanta team that’s still figuring out what it wants to do at QB. He finished the year with a contested-catch rate of 53.8 percent — a shade behind the 54.5 clip Justin Jefferson posted as a rookie in 2020 — while being targeted 114 times. London, too, could’ve been the pick at No. 3 here.

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9. Seattle Seahawks: Abe Lucas, OT, Washington State


Original pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State


Well, this is awkward — Cross and Lucas are teammates in Seattle. That happened because the Seahawks grabbed Lucas at No. 72, and that has been a real steal. Wherever you slot him among the 2022 rookie tackles, you have to admit that Lucas massively outperformed his draft slot. The case could be made that Seattle would still take Cross here, as his upside could still be better, but Lucas was the better of the two last season. Either way, it’s great news for the Seahawks, who still have both guys in real life.



10. New York Jets: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU


Original pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State


Stingley’s rookie year is tough to grade. A foot injury cost him part of his final year at LSU, then a hamstring injury shut him down after just nine games of his rookie season. What’d we learn in those nine games? First, Stingley looked very much like a prospect still overcoming an injury, even when he was “healthy.” Yet he still very much moved like the player we saw during his best days in college. Don’t give up on his potential.



11. Washington Commanders: Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia


Original pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State


Speaking of not giving up on people …

Walker’s traits are why he was drafted No. 1. As with Ekwonu, most viewed Walker as a player who would need time to develop, especially in terms of his skill set as a pass rusher. He played with a stacked deck at Georgia, and his responsibilities were limited in part because there was so much depth. You’d like to see him be more consistent versus the run as he improves everything else, but Walker’s growth was always going to be a bit slower than that of Hutchinson or Thibodeaux just based on where he was as a prospect on draft day.



12. Minnesota Vikings: Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA


Original pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama (to Detroit via trade)


Should Minnesota have traded this pick? Maybe, maybe not. We’ll see how the returns pan out over time.

Woolen (No. 153, Seattle) outplayed his draft spot, perhaps more than any player on this list. He should not have fallen to the fifth round. He played at a small school and switched over from receiver midway through his career, so there was a lot to be scared about. But he’s also 6-4, 205 and ran a 4.29-second 40 with a 42-inch vert and a broad jump of 10 feet 11 inches. Every Power 5 coach in America whiffed on this guy — and so did every NFL team (at least once or twice) last year.


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13. Philadelphia Eagles: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington


Original pick: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia


McDuffie, the former Washington Huskies star, was sticky in coverage all season for the Chiefs and played a big part in their Super Bowl run. He can still improve in some areas (62.1 percent catch rate against), but he just doesn’t let pass catchers get anything beyond the absolute minimum after a grab. His 10.1 yards per reception against was actually better than Gardner’s (10.6).




14. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa



Original pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame


To the surprise of absolutely no one, Linderbaum looked awesome (once he was healthy) as a rookie center in Baltimore. The former Iowa star was a perfect fit — and a steal at 25 — for the Ravens and had stretches in which he looked like a future Pro Bowler. He wasn’t quite on Creed Humphrey’s level as a rookie, but he also was not too far behind as a run blocker.



15. Houston Texans: Jamaree Salyer, OL, Georgia


Original pick: Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M


Many, many people were down on Salyer coming out of college because of how he’s built (6-3, 321), his issues with keeping his weight down and his general inconsistency. This is also where I tell you The Athletic’s Dane Brugler thought Salyer was a second-round talent and had a chance to outperform that stock immediately. He was right — though even Dane must have been a bit surprised to see how well Salyer performed at tackle after the Chargers lost Rashawn Slater. At No. 195, Salyer was one of the best picks of the 2022 draft — right up there with Woolen.


16. New Orleans Saints: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State


Original pick: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State


Context is king. Watson was a small-school prospect who overcame multiple surgeries and was still raw upon his NFL arrival. As we’ve mentioned with other prospects here, though, his talent and traits were undeniable. That was the case throughout his draft process, and it’s why a lot of people wondered if he’d wind up in the first round. He probably should have (Green Bay took him at 34), but the Packers got the win as they were willing to ride out what was sure to be a somewhat slow start.


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17. Los Angeles Chargers: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State


Original pick: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College


Cross isn’t tumbling out of the first round entirely, as the former Bulldog was better in protection during the second half of the 2022 season than he was at the start. Cross was among the youngest offensive linemen drafted last year — younger than Ekwonu. Lucas, by contrast, was among the oldest. In a year, maybe we swap which of those two has the edge, but it should be fun for Seattle to watch it play out.



18. Tennessee Titans: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State


Original pick: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas


Dotson (who missed five games because of injury) played his rookie season with Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell throwing him passes. His final five games, however, served as proof he belonged in the first round: 21 catches, 342 yards, three touchdowns. Despite battling that injury, he closed the season better than he started it.




19. New Orleans Saints: Braxton Jones, OT, Southern Utah


Original pick: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa


Jones, per Pro Football Focus, was the best run-blocking rookie tackle in the NFL last season. A fifth-round pick (No. 168) by Ryan Poles and the Bears, Jones — with an assist from Chicago O-line coach Chris Morgan — was able to leap through his roller-coaster phase and let his terrific athleticism take over. As a 17-game starter with room to grow, he’s another player who looks like a steal.




20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh


Original pick: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh


This is a toughie. I don’t think any of last draft’s quarterback-needy teams would take Pickett earlier than this today if they had it to do over again. Pittsburgh, though, seems to be convinced it would select Pickett again – at least publicly.

The 2022 QB class was labeled as weak during the draft process, and I don’t think anything happened to change my mind there. Brock Purdy had success, but he’s also playing with San Francisco’s roster and his coaches are Kyle Shanahan, Anthony Lynn and Brian Griese. So … probably not much else is changing here quarterbacks-wise.


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21. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia


Original pick: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington


Davis is one of the fastest giant humans we’ve ever seen. He’s a first-round pick today, yesterday, tomorrow, next week — it’s just a matter of where. The questions about Davis’ game — that he leans too much or has inconsistent pad level — haven’t vanished, and an ankle injury was ultimately his biggest issue last season. But this is a 6-6, 341-pounder who ran a 4.78 40-yard dash. He is a first-round pick by all definitions.



22. Green Bay Packers: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame


Original pick: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia


This is probably too low for Hamilton, who, like his rookie teammate Linderbaum, had an outstanding debut season at a very difficult position. Safeties are always tough to slot, just like centers. Frankly, I wanted to give Baltimore both Hamilton and Linderbaum at 14 because they were such great selections in real life.



23. Buffalo Bills: Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor


Original pick: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida


Going on a safety run here. As was the case during his stellar run at Baylor, Pitre was all over the place last year for Houston. He led all rookie safeties with five interceptions and was second only to Woolen’s six among rookie defenders. Pitre still needs to tighten things up, but he outperformed his original draft slot (No. 37).



24. Dallas Cowboys: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College


Original pick: Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa


The Cowboys get another good lineman here. In so many ways, Johnson played like a rookie, but he was a competitive one. He started every game, gained playoff experience and was better in November and December than he was in September and October.


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25. Baltimore Ravens: Kerby Joseph, S, Illinois


Original pick: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa


Another safety, this time the Lions’ third-rounder. Like many guys in this redraft, it took Joseph a bit of time to find stability and adjust to the speed of the NFL. Once that happened, though, he took off. He finished the year with four picks as a very active, physical center fielder for Detroit. Joseph also played his best ball at the end of the year — you might be noticing a theme there, too.



26. New York Jets: Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State


Original pick: Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State


The thing I liked most about Johnson coming out of college was that he didn’t really do anything poorly. There wasn’t a ton of “elite” to his tape, but there also weren’t any holes. Nobody in the class retraced runs like he did. Johnson gets everything out of his body, and he probably has a higher ceiling than people think.



27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama


Original pick: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah


Neal’s traits are still first-round caliber — probably even top half of the first round. He still has 34-inch arms and an 83-inch wingspan at 6-7, 334. He’s also still the guy who played three positions in three years at Alabama while being one of the youngest OTs in the class. There was a lot to clean up when he got to New York.

He and Cross had similar maturation issues as pass protectors last season, and Neal wound up “leading” all rookies with 52 pressures allowed. He remains very talented, though, and Brian Daboll’s staff can coach. Don’t give up on him yet.



28. Green Bay Packers: George Pickens, WR, Georgia



Original pick: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia


The Steelers scored Pickens at No. 52 last year and, though he dropped too many passes as a rookie, it’s safe to say he outplayed his draft spot. The physical receiver wound up with a contested-catch rate of 67.9 percent, the best of any rookie with at least 70 targets last year.



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29. New England Patriots: Zach Tom, OL, Wake Forest



Original pick: Cole Strange, OL, Chattanooga



There was nothing wrong with Strange’s rookie season, and he improved as a pass protector as the season progressed. But Tom’s first year was better, so he’s here in the redraft. Tom (No. 140) showed versatility on his college tape, and Green Bay saw that first-hand — Tom took reps at every spot but center as a rookie.



30. Kansas City Chiefs: George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue



Original pick: George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue



I thought about giving Karlaftis to the Jets at No. 26, but the fit here was just too perfect. We can safely say that Karlaftis’ power translated to the NFL — that wasn’t in question, really. He’ll always have to overcome length issues and still can find more ways to contribute, but he should only get better as he moves deeper into his career.




31. Cincinnati Bengals: Marcus Jones, CB, Houston


Original pick: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan



Jones, a third-round pick by New England (No. 85), was a Pro Bowl punt returner last season and notched two picks and four pass breakups for the Patriots’ secondary. He became a full-time fixture in Bill Belichick’s defensive backfield over the last month of the season.





32. Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama



Original pick: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia (to Minnesota via trade)


Someone else might take Williams before this, although he basically redshirted during the 2022 season — as expected — while coming back from a knee injury. The Lions probably would jump on him again, though, considering they traded up for him last year despite knowing he wouldn’t be available until late in the year (if at all). You also could make an argument for Detroit linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez somewhere on this board. The 2022 class was a great haul for Lions GM Brad Holmes.





Nick Baumgardner is a senior writer/columnist based in Michigan. He co-hosts “The Beat” Michigan-Michigan State podcast with Brendan Quinn and “One of These Years” Detroit Lions podcast with Chris Burke. He joined The Athletic after stops at the Detroit Free Press, MLive Media Group and other newspapers in Michigan, Indiana and Kentucky. Follow Nick on Twitter @nickbaumgardner

[chemiclord]

Finding late round gems is essential to building a winning team; and this last draft found Holmes pulling out three dudes in Joseph, Rodriguez, and Houston in the third round or lower who outperformed a ton of first round guys.

Hell, if Houston could have projected his rookie year to an entire 17-game season, it would have been in Micah Parsons territory.

[Mainevent]

Third is not “late round gem” territory. You better think you’re drafting starters (if not immediate then very near in the future).

[jaadam4]

Third is not “late round gem” territory. You better think you’re drafting starters (if not immediate then very near in the future).

I wish Millen, Mayhew and Quinn would have gotten that memo

[DanO]

When the Lions traded Okuda for a 5th round oick I was kinda excited. Unlike past regimes where that pick would be useless this regime may actually get some value out of it.

[whatever_gong82]

Finding late round gems is essential to building a winning team; and this last draft found Holmes pulling out three dudes in Joseph, Rodriguez, and Houston in the third round or lower who outperformed a ton of first round guys.

Hell, if Houston could have projected his rookie year to an entire 17-game season, it would have been in Micah Parsons territory.

That's why I'm at the point now in which I don't even care what any of the mocks say. With Brad Holmes, I feel that we're not only getting value, but we're also out-drafting the opposition!

[whatever_gong82]

When the Lions traded Okuda for a 5th round oick I was kinda excited. Unlike past regimes where that pick would be useless this regime may actually get some value out of it.

The more picks Brad Holmes, John Dorsey, and Ray Agnew have, the more chances of finding talent in the NFL Draft.

"Let Brad cook" should be on the lips of every Lions fan each and every NFL Draft.

[Mainevent]

Holmes is definitely going to package some picks to move up. And it’s tradition for the Lions to trade next year’s 4th.