NFL News

[Marko69]

Seems to be modelled on Loudermilk, Gong.
Or Loudermilk was modelled on this show. Either way —->> funny stuff. 👌

[whatever_gong82]

Why the Patriots, and all NFL teams, need to call more play-action passes

By Ben Volin Globe Staff, Updated November 23, 2024, 9:28 a.m.


Paywall article from the Boston Globe, with a bit of Detroit Lions interest.


Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt created a local media stir Thursday when he admitted that he had never considered using explosive punt returner Marcus Jones on offense until Jones texted him about it a few weeks ago.

But Van Pelt made another comment in the same news conference that received little attention but deserves further scrutiny. It came in response to a question about why the Patriots aren’t calling more play-action passes this year.

Entering Week 12, the Patriots rank 30th of 32 in frequency of play-action passes (15.4 percent), while Drake Maye ranks 33rd of 36 quarterbacks (17.7 percent) and Jacoby Brissett ranks 36th (13.4 percent). For perspective, the Lions’ Jared Goff leads all quarterbacks with play-action on 37.2 percent of his pass attempts. League average has been around 21 percent for most of the last decade.


“We need to run the ball better. That was the thought process there,” Van Pelt said. “[It’s] definitely still part of our game — 10-12 of those are on our call sheet each week. Try to get as many as we can called, sometimes the game dictates that you can’t use your run action as much. But it’s definitely part of our offense.”


Van Pelt’s comments echo the conventional wisdom among football coaches — that play-action passes only work when the running game is working, and only in the right spots.

But if Van Pelt wants to get better production out of Maye and the Patriots’ 31st-ranked scoring offense, he should probably rethink his philosophies. He needs to not only call more play-action passes, but also find a way to create more big plays out of it.


Maye’s 6.9 yards per attempt on play-action ranks 27th in the NFL, but he ranks second in deep percentage (17.6), meaning Maye is completing a lot of short play-action passes (most likely screens) but is flailing on the deep ones.

“Play-action is a cheat code. You get more yards on play-action than you do on any other type of play,” said Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy. “Not only are they not using it as much as we would like, they’re not successful with it.”



There are many layers of Van Pelt’s response to dissect. First, Van Pelt should call more play-action passes because it’s the most efficient play in football. Passes gain more than runs, and advanced stats show that play-action yields the biggest returns. This year, play-action passes average 8.13 yards per attempt, compared with 6.3 for non-play-action.


Second, Maye has been decent with play-action passing. Last week he was 6 of 8 for 50 yards and a touchdown. For the season, he has four touchdowns and two interceptions, with better stats across the board than without play-action: Completion percentage (70.6 to 65.8), yards per attempt (6.9 to 6.5), and passer rating (104.4 to 83.8).



Third, play-action passes are helpful for rookies as they learn how to read coverages, because they create space in the defense. Patriots receivers average 4 yards of separation with play-action, and 3.5 yards without it. Fellow rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are top 10 in frequency of play-action passes called (30 and 27 percent, respectively) and are the leading candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Caleb Williams ranks 29th (19 percent), and is struggling.


Fourth, it’s curious that Van Pelt said the Patriots need to run the ball better, because they aren’t running the ball poorly. For the season, they’re 21st in yards and 15th in average carry. The last four weeks, the Patriots are seventh in rushing yards and 19th in average carry. Certainly not bad enough to avoid play-action.


Fifth, the idea that you have to run the ball well to set up play-action is empirically not true. So is the idea that you have to use play-action judiciously. Schatz’s former site, Football Outsiders, researched the topic thoroughly in 2018.

“Obviously that’s a few years old at this point, but nothing’s changed,” Schatz said. “Basically, how often you run in the last few plays doesn’t matter, and how successful you are running the ball doesn’t matter.”


Whether an offense is averaging 10 yards per carry or 2, the defense is still going to react to a run fake. Same with whether an offense calls 30 handoffs or 10.

“Linebackers learn to jump at a run fake when they were kids. And unless you have a team that literally never runs the ball, you’re still going to jump at that run fake,” Schatz said. “So as long as you’re running every so often, play-action should work.”


The website FiveThirtyEight also found the same.


“Thanks to the NFL’s Next Gen data, we can add evidence that middle linebackers won’t stop biting on the play-action, even if it’s used more than NFL coaches have been comfortable running it.”


For example, the Vikings this year rank 19th in rushing yards and 26th in yards per carry. Yet they call the eighth-most play-action passes, Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 11.1 yards per attempt from play-action, and the Vikings are 8-2 and rank 10th in scoring. Also, in Super Bowl LII, the Eagles called play-action on 49 percent of their passes (21 of 43) as Nick Foles threw for 373 yards in the win.

In 2024, the 10 teams that call the most play-action are 63-40, with seven of them currently in the playoff field. The 10 teams that call the least play-action are 42-62 with two playoff teams (Buffalo, Atlanta).


Even the Lions, who lead the league in scoring and call the most play-action passes, arguably should be calling more. The Patriots certainly should over their final six games.

“Whatever is the highest amount of play-action you could do before it stops being useful, I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet,” Schatz said.

[Fraquar]

Biggest difference?
a) Formation. Lions rarely ran play action with Stafford because he was rarely under C. Hard to sell a horse to a guy who needs a goat.
b) Running the ball consistently. Lions rarely ran the ball more than 30% with Stafford - they run it nearly 50% with Goff. Note: I don't call WR or QB runs as runs....
c) An OC who isn't as predictable as a losing lottery ticket.
-----
If you want to sell play action - the opponent should be guessing what you are going to call next - not knowing what you will.
-----
It's not about calling more play action passes - it's about whether the defense even needs to respect it.
With Ben Johnson - the defense is wondering if they are in the right alignment with a nickel package on 3rd and 8. :D

[chemiclord]

When arguably the best RB you had during your tenure was an end-of-career Reggie Bush, it kinda makes sense why they only ran the ball 30% of the time.

[froot loops]

Stafford's success with the Lions on play action passes was the poster child for why being able to run effectively is not a prerequisite for play action success. They were the worst or second worst running attack in Stafford's years yet he was really good on play action.

The biggest issue is most of these quarterbacks come into the league not playing under center. I think the stats bear out that playing from under center is much better for play action. These coaches actually have to develop that when these players get drafted. Goff to his credit developed that in the NFL, he didn't take snaps under center at Cal.