NFL News

[El Axe]

In this article, Sharp points out that the upcoming 49ers season was one of the worst historically and the Ravens one of the best -- and that the differential between those two was the biggest in history.

There are also going to be, I think, 9 teams who have 3 games in 10 days. There were zero last year and it's very rare. It's happening this year mostly because of the Wednesday Xmas games, but there are also a few situations of Mon-Sat-Thu games.

[Coop]

With Injuries, there's definitely issues with short weeks and turn around...luck factors in there.

[Tom]

Wow, Larry Allen passes away. 52 is way too young

https://sports.yahoo.com/larry-allen-cowboys-legend-and-pro-football-hall-of-famer-dies-at-52-155925223.html

[El Axe]

PFF ranked the Lions roster as #2 with an argument for #1. 33rd team ranked them at #5.

My main problem with the 33rd team ranking is that they ranked the Chiefs ahead of the Lions because of Mahomes even though they clearly have a number of roster problems otherwise, but then they go and rank the Browns ahead as well even though they acknowledge that their QB is a weakness. Seems like inconsistent reasoning to me.

Not a big deal, of course, just cool to see the national acknowledgement from multiple sources.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/ranking-the-top-10-nfl-rosters-entering-2024-season/

edt: Here's the rankings
1. 49ers
2. Eagles
3. Browns
4. Chiefs
5. Lions
6. Jets
7. Dolphins
8. Ravens
9. Packers
10. Rams

[wcfwtf]

I only care about Fruits rankings

[froot loops]

You will have to pay for that and start spelling froot correctly.

[chemiclord]

For anyone who was wringing their hands over Goff's contract... go take a look at what Trevor Lawrence just got paid.

Hell, Goff's contract might wind being slightly above average by the end of this offseason.

[froot loops]

Anyone complaining about Goff's contract are generally not up to speed on how NFL contracts work.

Those same people also think Cade Cunningham getting the rookie max extension is too much.

In both cases the upcoming TV contracts will make these terms seem quaint.

[El Axe]

So, the NFL subreddit decided to discuss the all-time worst offense and defense.

While statistically there may be technically worse defenses, the popular consensus was on the 2020 Lions. Partly recency bias, but mostly because there are a few fanbases who have things they'd like to say about the incompetence of MP.

https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1df1hah/which_team_had_the_worst_defense_in_nfl_history/

[Topweasel]

For anyone who was wringing their hands over Goff's contract... go take a look at what Trevor Lawrence just got paid.

Hell, Goff's contract might wind being slightly above average by the end of this offseason.

Yep. Honestly just not having him be the top paid guy right away was a major win. But you had three QB contracts coming, one of them by probably statistically the best regular season performer (right now) in the biggest market in Dax coming when we signed him. Getting him done before those was a major win. He will probably end up in the 5-10 spot in pay this off season. At this position, although players will disagree the guaranteed amount doesn't matter (as long as it isn't all of it, you stupid browns).

Now if you want to question if QBs should be getting that much in general you might have a point. But the market is the way it is for a reason. But in regards to fitting in the market they did right with Goff and still got value out of the deal. Win win.

[El Axe]

ARSB is one of the featured players

[El Axe]

NFL.com's top 100 players

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-top-100-players-of-2024-patrick-mahomes-reigns-again-myles-garrett-top-defender-in-priscos-rankings/

17 Sewell
39 ARSB
47 Hutchinson
56 Ragnow
58 LaPorta
76 Goff
89 McNeill
HM Gibbs & Branch

There are a myriad of bizarre rankings. After his impressive 2023 season of taking 3 snaps, Aaron Rodgers moved up from 29 to 20.

[whatever_gong82]

NFL.com's top 100 players

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-top-100-players-of-2024-patrick-mahomes-reigns-again-myles-garrett-top-defender-in-priscos-rankings/

17 Sewell
39 ARSB
47 Hutchinson
56 Ragnow
58 LaPorta
76 Goff
89 McNeill
HM Gibbs & Branch

There are a myriad of bizarre rankings. After his impressive 2023 season of taking 3 snaps, Aaron Rodgers moved up from 29 to 20.

Really bizarre rankings, and the fact that Rodgers is now 40 means that his clock is ticking on his overall effectiveness. Now, someone can say 'Tom Brady,' but I'd add that Brady didn't start to tail off until the 2nd year he was in Tampa Bay, and the 1st season after he won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers.

Peyton Manning fell off a cliff his last year in the NFL while he was with Denver and needed that legendary defense to get over the finish line and win a Super Bowl in his final season in the NFL.

[El Axe]

From the Athletic:

NFL 2024 over/under win totals: Best bets and predictions for all 32 teams

Vic Tafur
Jun 14, 2024

If there is one thing that jumps out about this year’s season win-total projections, it’s that making the playoffs last season didn’t mean much.

Four 2023 playoff teams are projected to have losing records this season — the Cleveland Browns (8.5 wins), Los Angeles Rams (8.5), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5). Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the Steelers coach, but some people are hard to convince, it seems. Oh wait … I am one of them.

The bookmakers also don’t think much about parity, as eight teams have over-under totals of 10.5 wins or more. That would be the most teams with a win total greater than 10 in a season since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. We have five of those teams hitting the over as we take out our crystal ball again. We did pretty well last season, going 4-2 on our best bets and 19-13 overall for our fourth straight winning June.

Here are my picks for every team’s win-loss over/under. Best bets

All numbers come from BetMGM. If you want to wager on the win totals, you can find them here.

New York Giants Over 6.5 (+120)
The Giants were not surprised that Darren Waller retired this week. And probably not that upset about it either, as injuries and maybe some focus issues rendered Waller less than the dominant tight end he was with the Raiders. The Giants also probably got a chuckle when some people thought Drew Lock was brought in to take Daniel Jones’ job. Jones is not that bad, people. He will be able to get the ball to Malik Nabers. And Brian Daboll didn’t suddenly forget how to coach last season when the Giants disappointed many and fell from 9-7-1 to 6-11.

This is a great bounce-back spot, and a defense led by Dexter Lawrence II and Kayvon Thibodeaux will be much better with the addition of Brian Burns.

Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 (+125)
Who has it better than the Chargers and new coach Jim Harbaugh, who traded in a lot of his offense around quarterback Justin Herbert but inherited some defensive talent in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa? He dumped Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, but … apparently the Chargers are four games better than they were last season. Never mind that Harbaugh hasn’t coached in the NFL in a decade. Plus, he is in no rush, as a rebuild and new culture installation might take a year or so to hit the ground running.

Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5 (-125)
Hey, the last we checked, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson are still on the roster. And Sheldon Rankins was a very nice add on defense. The Bengals also have given Joe Burrow perhaps the best offensive line of his career and can get the steam train going early thanks to their schedule. Cincinnati opens against the Patriots, Chiefs, Commanders and Panthers. Outside of the defending champs, that’s three teams with new coaches, two with new quarterbacks and last year’s No. 1 pick, who still has much to prove.

Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5 (-125)
New coach Mike Macdonald took down all the old pictures in the halls from the Pete Carroll era, which raised some eyebrows. But he is a pretty good artist himself and he should draw up some good stuff for a Seahawks defense to get a lot better. First-round defensive tackle Byron Murphy II single-handedly improves an awful run defense and wins NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (13-to-1 odds. You’re welcome.)

Plus, we think people are sleeping on Geno Smith — some even think the acquisition of Sam Howell means more than needing a guy to hold a clipboard. But Seattle dropped 30 passes (ninth-most in the NFL) and gave up 229 pressures (sixth-most) while Smith still led the league in game-winning drives and had a higher passer rating than Patrick Mahomes, Burrow and C.J. Stroud.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 7.5 (+120)
I don’t know how Baker Mayfield did it last season, scrambling around to buy time and make big throws to win a lot of tight games. He got rewarded with a big contract, as did Mike Evans, and I am not sure that’s the best thing for the Buccaneers in the long term. Or in the short team. They lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales to the Panthers, and I see regression on offense. I also see a defense that lost Shaquil Barrett, Devin White and Carlton Davis. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs won a playoff game last season, but feel like a strong candidate for regression. (Kim Klement Neitzel / USA Today)

Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 (+105)
We are excited about Anthony Richardson, plus the Colts somehow had the best defensive player in the draft — Laiatu Latu — fall into their laps. Shane Steichen is one of the better play-callers in the league and was sorely missed in Philadelphia, while defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has done a nice job. They won nine games last season when Richardson was hurt and Gardner Minshew II filled in, and they re-signed 10 of their 13 unrestricted free agents. What are we missing? The rest of the league

San Francisco 49ers Under 11.5 (-125)
The 49ers have won over 12 games the last two years, and Brock Purdy still has all of his offensive toys. The defense sputtered a little down the stretch last season, but losing Chase Young may actually be a positive. I also thought they quietly had one of the better drafts in the league. So, what’s the problem? Rest. Or lack thereof. As Warren Sharp points out, the 49ers have the largest net rest disadvantage (-21 days) when you compare schedules. They play eight games where they will have less rest coming than their opponents — that’s the most in NFL history. (The Ravens, on the other hand, have a plus-16 rest differential). It’s why we will go with 11 wins instead of more.

Kansas City Chiefs Under 11.5 (even)
We cashed on the Chiefs under last season (same number), as it was the first time with Mahomes as their starter that they didn’t win at least 12 games. And while Kansas City has boosted its wide-receiving corps (their 6.5 air yards per attempt was the second-lowest in the NFL), it will take some time to click. Plus, Andy Reid smartly doesn’t care much about the regular season anymore. Eleven wins — and maybe even 10 — seem pretty safe to win the AFC West again.

And it’s a good thing they don’t care, otherwise the Chiefs would have had their feelings hurt by what the NFL schedule makers did to them. Kansas City plays every day of the week this year except Tuesday, including games on Dec. 21st and 25th.

Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 (-160)
We’ve covered how the Ravens will have a little more bounce to their step thanks to the schedule-makers. But they will need it, as they have more work to do, replacing most of their offensive line, linebackers and entire secondary. Plus they open at the Chiefs, vs. the Raiders, at the Cowboys, vs. the Bills and at the Bengals, so it’s hard to see all the new pieces coming together and starting with a 3-2 record. Last season was the first time in four years that the Ravens went over their season total number (9.5), and we think expectations are a little too high again this year.

Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 (+120)
The Bills never get their due respect, as coach Sean McDermott (seven seasons) and quarterback Josh Allen (six) have never gone under their season win-total projection. They did a good job bolstering their receiving corps with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel while replacing some of the pieces they lost on defense. This might finally be Allen’s MVP year (plus-800). Buffalo has a great home-field advantage and was 7-1 there last season. That’s a foundation for going over season totals every year.

Dallas Cowboys Over 10.5 (+105)
People doubted the Cowboys last season too, but they were easy over winners. And now we have Dak Prescott in a prove-it year. But that pertains to his playoff record, not regular season, and Prescott takes care of business in the fall. Dallas did lose tackle Tyron Smith and running back Tony Pollard, but added Tyler Guyton and Ezekiel Elliott to replace them. They can still bring back free-agent corner Stephon Gilmore. Again, no one is saying to get excited about the Cowboys. Just book another underachieving 11-win season.

We’re not ready to project the Cowboys will perform any differently in the postseason, but Dak Prescott and company will continue their regular-season success. (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)

[El Axe]

Philadelphia Eagles Under 10.5 (-120)
I started typing this thinking that I would be taking the over here, given the addition of Saquon Barkley, the return of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and another great draft class. But I was surprised when Jalen Hurts said that new coordinator Kellen Moore is replacing 95 percent of the offensive system, and it so happens that I think Moore is vastly overrated anyway. The softer part of the schedule is early on, so if getting used to a new offense prevents a 4-2 start, the Eagles aren’t getting to 11 wins. Plus, we don’t really know how Hurts will bounce back from a down year and the loss of center Jason Kelce or how Nick Siriani will respond to being on the hot seat after a 1-6 finish (including the playoffs last season).

Detroit LionsOver 10.5 (-115)
The Lions fixed their secondary in the offseason by drafting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and signing Amik Robertson, and I think receiver Jameson Williams has a breakout in Year 3 to take the offense to another level. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson made the right decision to stick around another season as I think Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the league’s best running-back tandem lead the Lions to the Super Bowl this season.


Miami Dolphins Over 9.5 (-135)
The Dolphins’ defense took some salary-cap-related hits, but you don’t pick the Dolphins to win games because of their defense. Their offense finished top five in total points, yards and completion percentage last season, and Tua Tagovailoa should only get better.

Plus they have a new secret weapon in tight end Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins threw a league-high 42 screens to receivers last season, according to TruMedia — but only one was to a tight end. Smith, on the Falcons, had the third-most yards after catch over expectation on screens (+71). This over prediction only really requires that the Dolphins take care of business at home against the Titans, Cardinals, Raiders and Patriots and win six of their other 13 games.

Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 (-135)
I think Jordan Love and the Packers overachieved a little last season, but I like what Green Bay did this offseason. Josh Jacobs will be a perfect fit, as he is a tough runner, and I also think Matt LaFleur will do a better job of using him in the passing game than the Raiders ever did. On defense, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and safety Javon Bullard are nice chess pieces — it’s rare when a team brings in four new safeties, but I like the four guys they brought in.

Atlanta Falcons Under 9.5 (+115)
Kirk Cousins may not have a lot of prime-time or postseason success, but the guy knows how to win regular-season games. That won’t be helped, however, by the team’s decision to draft QB Michael Penix Jr. in the first round, as the lack of a pass rusher and defensive standouts is astounding. I am wavering a little because the schedule is not that hard. If you look at the advance point spreads, the Falcons are favored in 14 total games, 13 after a tough opening three-game stretch against the Steelers (and former head coach Arthur Smith), Eagles and Chiefs. It’s going to be close, but we’ll take the value and the under.

Houston Texans Over 9.5 (-145)
The most-improved team in the league last season added Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry and Azeez Al-Shaair and they have the league’s next great quarterback in Stroud. I don’t know exactly what Diggs brings after his rapid drop-off in Buffalo or what role he is willing to accept, but he has the skill set to complement Nico Collins and Tank Dell and give the Texans a great attack. Stroud already seems like a great leader, and he should be able to fire up Diggs, but it’s a dealbreaker if he can’t. I almost forgot Joe Mixon, one of the many transplanted running backs who should be great in the fourth quarter.

After one season, C.J. Stroud already looks like the NFL’s next great young quarterback. (Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)

New York Jets Under 9.5 (+ 120)
This appears to be a trap number. How are the Jets not going to win 10 games? After all, Aaron Rodgers is back (though not at mandatory minicamp), the offensive line is much improved, I love the addition of receiver Mike Williams as a No. 2 and the defense has been great for two years. They even got a solid backup QB in Tyrod Taylor in case Rodgers breaks down again. But I think the Jets will regret taking a project in tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round, and there is not a lot of depth. Plus, it’s hard to have a lot of faith in a creaky 40-year-old quarterback who seems to have a lot of interests outside of football.