NFL News

[El Axe]

Sagarin	ELO
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Ravens right there with the Lions, so being a visiting team explains why Lions are underdog. A win here and I'm not sure the Lions move up that much only because there's a numerical rating gap between the top teams and the Lions current rating.

[Mainevent]

I don't care about rankings, but I am curious about Sagarin's formula. Lions are ahead of KC in both offensive and defensive DVOA this year, weighted/non-weighted, what have you. And in traditional stats they are very close, Detroit better offensively and a virtual tie defensively. So interested to understand what factors is he including that would create such a gap between KC (or the Bills for that matter) and Detroit in his model.

[jaadam4]

I don't care about rankings, but I am curious about Sagarin's formula. Lions are ahead of KC in both offensive and defensive DVOA this year, weighted/non-weighted, what have you. And in traditional stats they are very close, Detroit better offensively and a virtual tie defensively. So interested to understand what factors is he including that would create such a gap between KC (or the Bills for that matter) and Detroit in his model.

Probably having the best football player in the league (MaHomes) and T Swift.

[Trickalicious]

Surtain doesn't go for less than two firsts. And that's even if the Broncos have any intention of trading him (spoiler alert: they don't).

Maybe he meant Pat Surtain Sr..

[ghandi]

Eagles sign Julio Jones...Hopefully he is done as they dont need more weapons unless AJ Brown is injured.

[whatever_gong82]

[El Axe]

I don't care about rankings, but I am curious about Sagarin's formula. Lions are ahead of KC in both offensive and defensive DVOA this year, weighted/non-weighted, what have you. And in traditional stats they are very close, Detroit better offensively and a virtual tie defensively. So interested to understand what factors is he including that would create such a gap between KC (or the Bills for that matter) and Detroit in his model.

Sagarin keeps his algorithm secret, but as I understand it, it's based primarily on scores -- who beat who and by how much, similar to ELO. I don't think it takes anything else into consideration. I'm somewhat familiar with a ranking algorithm for another sport and its inventor discussed theory with Sagarin, they use fairly advanced statistical theories. Drawing a blank on the primary theory used. Been a few years since my grad classes.

It's the OG ranking algorithm, been around for over 30 years. It was one of the ranking algorithms used by NCAA FB to determine the National Championship game teams.

[El Axe]

This is encouraging, you can click on it to get to the source web site, playoffstatus.com:

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[whatever_gong82]

If the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:

[whatever_gong82]

Jared Goff as MVP? Here's how Lions QB stacks up to recent winners and current candidates



Justin Rogers
The Detroit News

Allen Park — It's been three decades since the Detroit Lions have won their division, and a couple of years longer still since they've won a playoff game. Those dreadful marks are pretty well known around these parts as the team seeks to hit the reset button on both in 2023, jumping out to a 2.5-game lead in the NFC North less than two months into the season.

But there's another drought for the franchise that could be broken, which isn't getting anywhere near as much attention. Maybe that's because it wasn't considered realistic until recently. But by carrying over his strong finish from a year ago, quarterback Jared Goff has pushed his way into the early-season MVP conversation as the campaign nears its midpoint.

The last and only time a Lions player has won the MVP was 1997. That's the year running back Barry Sanders topped 2,000 yards, averaging a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry. Not surprisingly, the Lions quarterback laughed off talk of his candidacy when asked about it during an interview with "The Dan Patrick Show" on Tuesday.


"Sure, yeah, I won't be doing much of it (campaigning), but you can take care of that for me, Dan," Goff said.

Per FanDuel, Goff is now among the top 10 in the betting odds for the award, tied with Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence at +1900. They both sit well behind the leaders, Miami's Tua Tagovailoa (+330) and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes (+340), but the gap is closing.


As it should be.

In terms of passer rating, Goff ranks third, behind Tagovailoa and San Francisco's Brock Purdy. Via a more advanced metric, QBR, which accounts for variables such game situation and length of pass, Goff is fourth, sandwiched between Tagovailoa and Mahomes.

Let's be clear: The award is almost certainly going to a quarterback. It has for the last 10 years, and the only realistic threats to snapping that streak are Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill. Through six games, McCaffrey has racked up 730 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns, but an oblique injury from last Sunday could sideline him a few games. And while a healthy Hill figures to smash Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage mark, Associated Press voters have never given the MVP award to a receiver.


In the aforementioned odds, Hill is at +4000, behind Joe Burrow, who currently has a sub-80 passer rating, and Dallas' Dak Prescott, who hasn't been much better.

Looking back at the past decade of MVP quarterbacks, there are obvious trends in their production. But first and foremost, the group were winners, averaging nearly 13 victories as a starter the season they won. Only Matt Ryan won fewer than 12 games (11) during the stretch.


Statistically, the last 10 winners have averaged 4,510 passing yards, completed 67.0% of their throws, for 41 touchdowns and a tick lower than eight interceptions. Of course, with the NFL moving to a 17-game schedule in 2021, current expectations figure to be slightly higher than those averages.

Dual-threat ability has far from been a prerequisite, but it didn't hurt some of the recent winners, most notably Lamar Jackson in 2019, when he rushed for a positional-record 1,206 yards.


So what does Goff need to do to strengthen his case as the season progresses? Obviously, the Lions need to continue to win. The bare minimum to be in the conversation figures to be 12 victories as a starter, plus a division title. But a 13-4 mark or better would amplify his candidacy.

From a production standpoint, Goff is on track, in most regards. He is currently on pace to complete a career-high 69.5% of his throws for 4,584 yards, 31 touchdowns and just eight or nine interceptions, depending on which way you feel like rounding. His 105.5 passer rating and 73.3 QBR, both on track for career-bests, would be slightly below recent MVP standards, but still meeting thresholds.


The thing from that prorated production most likely to hold Goff back is the touchdowns. If he doesn't pick up the pace in that department, he'd finish with fewer scoring throws than any MVP the past decade. He's currently even with Mahomes, who threw 50 and 41 his two MVP campaigns, and three behind Tagovailoa, who is steering an offense on track to rack up more yards and score more points than any in NFL history.


Not that anyone will complain as long as it continues to net wins, but this is where Detroit's offensive balance hurts Goff. The team wants to lean on its ground game weekly, particularly when David Montgomery is healthy and able to shoulder the load. He's amassed six touchdowns in his five appearances, logging a hearty 51 carries the previous two games prior to exiting last Sunday with a rib injury.

As devastating as that injury is to what the Lions want to accomplish offensively, it could open a window for Goff to do more. We saw as much as he threw for a season-high 353 yards against Tampa Bay this past weekend. Pair that with the recent reinsertion of big-play threat Jameson Williams into the passing game, Goff has an opportunity to rack up some extra passing yards and touchdowns while Montgomery is down.


Even at his previous best, as a Pro Bowler in 2017 and 2018, Goff didn't receive MVP consideration. That's because voting had always been a one-name ballot. Assuming sustained production at his present level, that likely changes this year, with voters permitted to list their top-five starting in 2022.

There's plenty of work to do to push into the upper tiers of the conversation, where Tagovailoa, Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts reside, but Goff's current stretch of high-level performance now extends back a full season's worth of games and he's given little reason to believe its going to drop off any time soon.


It might take close to a touchdown toss more per game than we're used to seeing out of him these final 11 contests, but if that happens, it could cap a remarkable individual turnaround within an equally remarkable franchise turnaround.


jdrogers@detroitnews.com

Twitter/X: @Justin_Rogers

[jaadam4]

If the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:

Seems about right. Its crazy that the Browns would make it. All the rest is pretty legit. Its not the way it'll end up. Philly and San Fran have a much tougher schedule and without McCaffrey San Fran wont be themselves. I honestly believe the Lions will be the #1 seed. Besides Baltimore and a West Coast trip we have it cake.

[froot loops]

The Browns defense is legit.

[Cody_Russell]

Gym Shorts, elite defensive coordinator.

If the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:

Looking at that graphic there… I can’t even contemplate what a Rams @ Lions playoff game would feel like. The idea of Matthew Stafford competing against the Lions at Detroit… a special Lions season and our team trying to pick up the 2nd playoff win in 65 years. It would be the first Lions home playoff game in a long time too.

[jaadam4]

Gym Shorts, elite defensive coordinator.




Looking at that graphic there… I can’t even contemplate what a Rams @ Lions playoff game would feel like. The idea of Matthew Stafford competing against the Lions at Detroit… a special Lions season and our team trying to pick up the 2nd playoff win in 65 years. It would be the first Lions home playoff game in a long time too.

Oh wow. That would be insane. They were so bad last year I hadn’t even considered them making the playoffs.

[El Axe]

If the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:

This is why that #1 seed is so important. Not only do you get a week to rest and heal, but you get to play the survivor of the Eagles and 49ers game if you make it to the NFC championship.