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2023 NFL free agency rankings: Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr and Daron Payne lead top 150
Larry Holder and David DeChant
Feb 27, 2023
Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs played some of the best football in their NFL careers just in time to cash in, as they’re set to become unrestricted free agents in March. But where do they rank among the top 150 potential unrestricted free agents? And what about the quarterbacks with expiring contracts?
It’s all right here.
Certainly, there’s no set formula for how to rank these players, so there’s some subjectivity to this list. But factors like age, production, health and potential all played a role in how we determined the order.
Ages as of Week 1 in the 2023 regular season are in parentheses.
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (26)
There is zero chance of the former league MVP actually hitting the open market. The Ravens still haven’t abandoned hope of a long-term deal, although there have been no outward signs of positive movement. If the stalemate continues, Baltimore will franchise tag the quarterback before March 7. It would be hard for the Ravens to pay the roughly $45 million exclusive franchise tag and build a playoff-caliber roster, but the Ravens insist they can make it work. — Jeff Zrebiec
2. Derek Carr, QB, Raiders (32)
Carr told the Raiders he wouldn’t accept any trade before $32.9 million of his $41.9 million salary in 2023 would have become guaranteed, forcing the team to release him and let him pick his destination on his terms. The four-time Pro Bowler has already visited with the Saints and Jets, and he should have other suitors, as the league-wide game of QB musical chairs has yet to begin. That should give him plenty of leverage in negotiations. — David DeChant
3. Daron Payne, DT, Commanders (26)
Payne is expected to get tagged ($18.9 million), but will Washington pay him beyond that? Many expect the DT market to explode, with multiple deals exceeding $20 million annually. Payne had 11.5 sacks, 20 QB hits and 18 tackles for loss in 2022 and doesn’t turn 26 until May. But the Commanders paid Jonathan Allen last year, drafted Phidarian Mathis in Round 2 and have potential extensions for Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young upcoming. — Ben Standig
4. Javon Hargrave, DT, Eagles (30)
Hargrave was the most disruptive interior pass rusher in the league aside from Chris Jones in 2022, racking up 11 sacks. He just turned 30 in February, but the Eagles can open up some immediate cap space by signing him to an extension. That, plus the expected departure of Fletcher Cox, probably makes him the likeliest of the Eagles’ top-tier pending free agents to return. — Bo Wulf
5. Jessie Bates III, S, Bengals (26)
The writing has been on the wall for a while that Bates won’t return, though he hasn’t closed the door completely. Three times the front office and Bates’ camp couldn’t agree on terms, and Cincinnati made their move by drafting Dax Hill in the 2022 first round. Bates will see big money and, more importantly, big guarantees on the free-agent market. He’s been patient, bet on himself twice and will get his payday somewhere. — Paul Dehner Jr.
6. Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks (32)
Smith expects to be back in Seattle. Pete Carroll and John Schneider say they want him back. Now it’s all about compensation. Schneider said he has a “drop-dead number” in negotiations, and that Smith knows the Seahawks’ goal is to build a competent roster around him, implying that they might persuade the quarterback to leave some meat on the bone to upgrade other positions. The franchise tag would cost $32.4 million. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
7. Orlando Brown, OT, Chiefs (27)
Brown is expected to receive the franchise tag for the second consecutive year, which will be worth $19.99 million (120 percent of the 2021 tag value). In 2022, he was a Pro Bowler and didn’t surrender a sack in the Chiefs’ three postseason victories. The expectation is Brown will want an extension with more guaranteed money than the offer he declined last summer: six years, $139 million, $30.25 million signing bonus, and $91 million in the first five years. — Nate Taylor
8. Bobby Wagner, LB, Rams (33)
With the Rams cap-strapped and Wagner looking for more certainty, the sides agreed to part ways, putting the veteran back in the free-agent pool for the second consecutive year. In his 11th season and first outside of Seattle, Wagner started 17 games and earned second-team All-Pro honors while totaling 140 tackles (10 for loss) and six sacks, second-most in the NFL among off-ball linebackers. His contract in L.A. was worth $10 million annually, which seems like a fair target again this year. — DeChant
9. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (25)
We’ll never know how much Jacobs was motivated by the Raiders not picking up his fifth-year option (he says not at all), but he lost 10 pounds, didn’t miss a game and led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards (4.9 yards per carry). He also had a career-high 400 yards receiving and continued to be a solid blocker in pass protection. Would GM Dave Ziegler to do the very un-Patriot-like thing of giving a running back a big, long-term contract? Or will they just throw him the bone of a $10.1 million franchise tag? — Vic Tafur
10. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants (26)
For the first time since his 2018 Rookie of the Year season, Barkley did not miss any games because of injury. He finished with a career-high 295 carries for 1,312 yards, which was fourth in the NFL. Barkley also caught 57 passes for 338 yards en route to his second Pro Bowl selection. The franchise tag number for running backs is $10.1 million, but the Giants might not have the tag available if they need to use it on Daniel Jones. — Charlotte Carroll
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2023 NFL free agency rankings: Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr and Daron Payne lead top 150
Larry Holder and David DeChant
Feb 27, 2023
Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs played some of the best football in their NFL careers just in time to cash in, as they’re set to become unrestricted free agents in March. But where do they rank among the top 150 potential unrestricted free agents? And what about the quarterbacks with expiring contracts?
It’s all right here.
Certainly, there’s no set formula for how to rank these players, so there’s some subjectivity to this list. But factors like age, production, health and potential all played a role in how we determined the order.
Ages as of Week 1 in the 2023 regular season are in parentheses.
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (26)
There is zero chance of the former league MVP actually hitting the open market. The Ravens still haven’t abandoned hope of a long-term deal, although there have been no outward signs of positive movement. If the stalemate continues, Baltimore will franchise tag the quarterback before March 7. It would be hard for the Ravens to pay the roughly $45 million exclusive franchise tag and build a playoff-caliber roster, but the Ravens insist they can make it work. — Jeff Zrebiec
2. Derek Carr, QB, Raiders (32)
Carr told the Raiders he wouldn’t accept any trade before $32.9 million of his $41.9 million salary in 2023 would have become guaranteed, forcing the team to release him and let him pick his destination on his terms. The four-time Pro Bowler has already visited with the Saints and Jets, and he should have other suitors, as the league-wide game of QB musical chairs has yet to begin. That should give him plenty of leverage in negotiations. — David DeChant
3. Daron Payne, DT, Commanders (26)
Payne is expected to get tagged ($18.9 million), but will Washington pay him beyond that? Many expect the DT market to explode, with multiple deals exceeding $20 million annually. Payne had 11.5 sacks, 20 QB hits and 18 tackles for loss in 2022 and doesn’t turn 26 until May. But the Commanders paid Jonathan Allen last year, drafted Phidarian Mathis in Round 2 and have potential extensions for Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young upcoming. — Ben Standig
4. Javon Hargrave, DT, Eagles (30)
Hargrave was the most disruptive interior pass rusher in the league aside from Chris Jones in 2022, racking up 11 sacks. He just turned 30 in February, but the Eagles can open up some immediate cap space by signing him to an extension. That, plus the expected departure of Fletcher Cox, probably makes him the likeliest of the Eagles’ top-tier pending free agents to return. — Bo Wulf
5. Jessie Bates III, S, Bengals (26)
The writing has been on the wall for a while that Bates won’t return, though he hasn’t closed the door completely. Three times the front office and Bates’ camp couldn’t agree on terms, and Cincinnati made their move by drafting Dax Hill in the 2022 first round. Bates will see big money and, more importantly, big guarantees on the free-agent market. He’s been patient, bet on himself twice and will get his payday somewhere. — Paul Dehner Jr.
6. Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks (32)
Smith expects to be back in Seattle. Pete Carroll and John Schneider say they want him back. Now it’s all about compensation. Schneider said he has a “drop-dead number” in negotiations, and that Smith knows the Seahawks’ goal is to build a competent roster around him, implying that they might persuade the quarterback to leave some meat on the bone to upgrade other positions. The franchise tag would cost $32.4 million. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
7. Orlando Brown, OT, Chiefs (27)
Brown is expected to receive the franchise tag for the second consecutive year, which will be worth $19.99 million (120 percent of the 2021 tag value). In 2022, he was a Pro Bowler and didn’t surrender a sack in the Chiefs’ three postseason victories. The expectation is Brown will want an extension with more guaranteed money than the offer he declined last summer: six years, $139 million, $30.25 million signing bonus, and $91 million in the first five years. — Nate Taylor
8. Bobby Wagner, LB, Rams (33)
With the Rams cap-strapped and Wagner looking for more certainty, the sides agreed to part ways, putting the veteran back in the free-agent pool for the second consecutive year. In his 11th season and first outside of Seattle, Wagner started 17 games and earned second-team All-Pro honors while totaling 140 tackles (10 for loss) and six sacks, second-most in the NFL among off-ball linebackers. His contract in L.A. was worth $10 million annually, which seems like a fair target again this year. — DeChant
9. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (25)
We’ll never know how much Jacobs was motivated by the Raiders not picking up his fifth-year option (he says not at all), but he lost 10 pounds, didn’t miss a game and led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards (4.9 yards per carry). He also had a career-high 400 yards receiving and continued to be a solid blocker in pass protection. Would GM Dave Ziegler to do the very un-Patriot-like thing of giving a running back a big, long-term contract? Or will they just throw him the bone of a $10.1 million franchise tag? — Vic Tafur
10. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants (26)
For the first time since his 2018 Rookie of the Year season, Barkley did not miss any games because of injury. He finished with a career-high 295 carries for 1,312 yards, which was fourth in the NFL. Barkley also caught 57 passes for 338 yards en route to his second Pro Bowl selection. The franchise tag number for running backs is $10.1 million, but the Giants might not have the tag available if they need to use it on Daniel Jones. — Charlotte Carroll
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