NFL News

[Marko69]

Seems to be modelled on Loudermilk, Gong.
Or Loudermilk was modelled on this show. Either way —->> funny stuff. 👌

[whatever_gong82]

Why the Patriots, and all NFL teams, need to call more play-action passes

By Ben Volin Globe Staff, Updated November 23, 2024, 9:28 a.m.


Paywall article from the Boston Globe, with a bit of Detroit Lions interest.


Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt created a local media stir Thursday when he admitted that he had never considered using explosive punt returner Marcus Jones on offense until Jones texted him about it a few weeks ago.

But Van Pelt made another comment in the same news conference that received little attention but deserves further scrutiny. It came in response to a question about why the Patriots aren’t calling more play-action passes this year.

Entering Week 12, the Patriots rank 30th of 32 in frequency of play-action passes (15.4 percent), while Drake Maye ranks 33rd of 36 quarterbacks (17.7 percent) and Jacoby Brissett ranks 36th (13.4 percent). For perspective, the Lions’ Jared Goff leads all quarterbacks with play-action on 37.2 percent of his pass attempts. League average has been around 21 percent for most of the last decade.


“We need to run the ball better. That was the thought process there,” Van Pelt said. “[It’s] definitely still part of our game — 10-12 of those are on our call sheet each week. Try to get as many as we can called, sometimes the game dictates that you can’t use your run action as much. But it’s definitely part of our offense.”


Van Pelt’s comments echo the conventional wisdom among football coaches — that play-action passes only work when the running game is working, and only in the right spots.

But if Van Pelt wants to get better production out of Maye and the Patriots’ 31st-ranked scoring offense, he should probably rethink his philosophies. He needs to not only call more play-action passes, but also find a way to create more big plays out of it.


Maye’s 6.9 yards per attempt on play-action ranks 27th in the NFL, but he ranks second in deep percentage (17.6), meaning Maye is completing a lot of short play-action passes (most likely screens) but is flailing on the deep ones.

“Play-action is a cheat code. You get more yards on play-action than you do on any other type of play,” said Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy. “Not only are they not using it as much as we would like, they’re not successful with it.”



There are many layers of Van Pelt’s response to dissect. First, Van Pelt should call more play-action passes because it’s the most efficient play in football. Passes gain more than runs, and advanced stats show that play-action yields the biggest returns. This year, play-action passes average 8.13 yards per attempt, compared with 6.3 for non-play-action.


Second, Maye has been decent with play-action passing. Last week he was 6 of 8 for 50 yards and a touchdown. For the season, he has four touchdowns and two interceptions, with better stats across the board than without play-action: Completion percentage (70.6 to 65.8), yards per attempt (6.9 to 6.5), and passer rating (104.4 to 83.8).



Third, play-action passes are helpful for rookies as they learn how to read coverages, because they create space in the defense. Patriots receivers average 4 yards of separation with play-action, and 3.5 yards without it. Fellow rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are top 10 in frequency of play-action passes called (30 and 27 percent, respectively) and are the leading candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Caleb Williams ranks 29th (19 percent), and is struggling.


Fourth, it’s curious that Van Pelt said the Patriots need to run the ball better, because they aren’t running the ball poorly. For the season, they’re 21st in yards and 15th in average carry. The last four weeks, the Patriots are seventh in rushing yards and 19th in average carry. Certainly not bad enough to avoid play-action.


Fifth, the idea that you have to run the ball well to set up play-action is empirically not true. So is the idea that you have to use play-action judiciously. Schatz’s former site, Football Outsiders, researched the topic thoroughly in 2018.

“Obviously that’s a few years old at this point, but nothing’s changed,” Schatz said. “Basically, how often you run in the last few plays doesn’t matter, and how successful you are running the ball doesn’t matter.”


Whether an offense is averaging 10 yards per carry or 2, the defense is still going to react to a run fake. Same with whether an offense calls 30 handoffs or 10.

“Linebackers learn to jump at a run fake when they were kids. And unless you have a team that literally never runs the ball, you’re still going to jump at that run fake,” Schatz said. “So as long as you’re running every so often, play-action should work.”


The website FiveThirtyEight also found the same.


“Thanks to the NFL’s Next Gen data, we can add evidence that middle linebackers won’t stop biting on the play-action, even if it’s used more than NFL coaches have been comfortable running it.”


For example, the Vikings this year rank 19th in rushing yards and 26th in yards per carry. Yet they call the eighth-most play-action passes, Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 11.1 yards per attempt from play-action, and the Vikings are 8-2 and rank 10th in scoring. Also, in Super Bowl LII, the Eagles called play-action on 49 percent of their passes (21 of 43) as Nick Foles threw for 373 yards in the win.

In 2024, the 10 teams that call the most play-action are 63-40, with seven of them currently in the playoff field. The 10 teams that call the least play-action are 42-62 with two playoff teams (Buffalo, Atlanta).


Even the Lions, who lead the league in scoring and call the most play-action passes, arguably should be calling more. The Patriots certainly should over their final six games.

“Whatever is the highest amount of play-action you could do before it stops being useful, I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet,” Schatz said.

[Fraquar]

Biggest difference?
a) Formation. Lions rarely ran play action with Stafford because he was rarely under C. Hard to sell a horse to a guy who needs a goat.
b) Running the ball consistently. Lions rarely ran the ball more than 30% with Stafford - they run it nearly 50% with Goff. Note: I don't call WR or QB runs as runs....
c) An OC who isn't as predictable as a losing lottery ticket.
-----
If you want to sell play action - the opponent should be guessing what you are going to call next - not knowing what you will.
-----
It's not about calling more play action passes - it's about whether the defense even needs to respect it.
With Ben Johnson - the defense is wondering if they are in the right alignment with a nickel package on 3rd and 8. :D

[chemiclord]

When arguably the best RB you had during your tenure was an end-of-career Reggie Bush, it kinda makes sense why they only ran the ball 30% of the time.

[froot loops]

Stafford's success with the Lions on play action passes was the poster child for why being able to run effectively is not a prerequisite for play action success. They were the worst or second worst running attack in Stafford's years yet he was really good on play action.

The biggest issue is most of these quarterbacks come into the league not playing under center. I think the stats bear out that playing from under center is much better for play action. These coaches actually have to develop that when these players get drafted. Goff to his credit developed that in the NFL, he didn't take snaps under center at Cal.

[edindetroit]

FB_IMG_1732484589727.jpg

[edindetroit]

The Jets probably don't want him back either.

[Dan V]

I would love to see Erin suck in Nee England next year

[froot loops]

The Patriots would not be that foolish to sit Drake Maye for him. They are all in on Maye.

[Mainevent]

What team is going to want his bullshit? Vegas? The Giants would be hilarious.

[froot loops]

He is on the Brett Favre path, he will be on the Vikings next season. JJ just had a second surgery.

[whatever_gong82]

All is falling apart for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers

The head coach cannot deflect blame. This blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers — and the sad state of the reigning NFC champs — is on him.

Tyler Dunne
Nov 25
∙

Kyle Shanahan took a virtual scalpel to the mess his San Francisco 49ers left behind at Lambeau Field. First, he blamed the run defense. Cited missed tackles. He was particularly agitated by his defense’s inability to get off the field in the first half — “one of worst ones I’ve been a part of.”

He took a shot at the officials. He lamented the fact that his own run game just never got going.


There were the three turnovers that led to 21 points. And the nine penalties. And asked about this team’s lack of physicality, Shanahan lamented injuries: linebacker Dre Greenlaw, a few defensive linemen, Jordan Elliott bowing out with a concussion.

Little things add up in pro football. But those little things usually lead back to one man: the head coach.

This was a jarring defeat for a team that’s lorded over the NFC.


One year after coming back to stun the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round of the playoffs, his 49ers were thoroughly humiliated, 38-10. The 49ers are 5-6, a wounded animal and — now — in danger of total collapse the final month of the season. Next up? A trip across the country to Orchard Park, NY to face the surging 9-2 Buffalo Bills fresh off a bye.

For San Francisco, all roads lead back to Super Bowl LIV. That’s when Shanahan’s worst flaw was exposed. Anybody with a sliver of football knowledge understands the absolute last thing you do in this sport is give Patrick Mahomes the ball last with a chance to win. Sean McDermott has learned the hard way, and apparently grown from painful experiences. For all of his X ‘n O wizardry, Shanahan’s complete lack of seeing the big picture cost the 49ers a championship last February.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs were well-versed in the new overtime rules, whereas Shanahan’s 49ers veterans sounded like junior high kids that wandered into a college exam. They had zero clue. That’s on the head coach. That wasn’t the first time this Silicon Valley team at the cutting edge of so much offensive innovation showed its foundational cracks, either. It’s too soon to write the obituary for the Shanahan Era 49ers. A coach whose eight playoff wins trail only George Seifert and Bill Walsh in San Francisco isn’t going to be fired.


But until Shanahan realizes he's got to change, nothing will.

He’s been too stubborn. He wilts late in games. It never appears as if he’s too interested in holding himself accountable.

So here are the 49ers, suffering one of the worst Super Bowl hangovers we’ve seen. Two Advils and a healthy Brock Purdy won’t do the trick.


Let’s begin with his quarterback calculation. Shanahan decided to start journeyman Brandon Allen in Green Bay. He wasn’t a total disaster, I suppose. Allen finished 17 of 29 for 199 yards with one score and one pick. But he also hadn’t started a game since the final week of the 2021 season. He also was playing with a broken finger on his non-throwing hand. Considering he’s Brandon Allen, career backup, nobody seemed to care or notice until Fox sideline reporter Tom Rinaldi said during Sunday’s game that Allen broke that middle finger on his left hand in practice.

Perhaps Allen does not fumble the ball twice with a healthy hand. The value of a backup quarterback should always be the fact the backup quarterback is 100 percent healthy.

Naturally, Shanahan defended his decision to start Allen.

He sounded annoyed that the question was even asked.

“You said, ‘Why start him? Why start him because of injury?’” Shanahan repeated back to a local reporter. “He’s fine. He hurt his finger like three weeks ago.”

Preparing backups to play should be no surprise. Not after Shanahan cycled through three quarterbacks — Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo and Purdy — through a 2022 run to the NFC Championship Game. Josh Dobbs is also on the roster. No, he wouldn’t have been the one-man magic wand in this blowout defeat. But given Allen’s bleh performance, he couldn’t have been any worse.

Stubbornness is manifesting in many ways for this coach.

Look around the quarterback.



Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel have been pillars to everything Shanahan has built, but they’re shells of themselves this season. Maybe Shanahan feels the need to justify McCaffrey’s two-year, $38 million extension from June. Once again, he downplayed his own obvious mistake. McCaffrey rushed 11 times for 31 yards (2.8 avg.), while Jordan Mason received only three carries. Asked about McCaffrey’s outing, Shanahan said the 49ers “didn’t see much from anybody today.” Well, uh, yeah. That’s on the playcaller. In his three full games since returning from injury, McCaffrey has only 149 yards on 43 attempts with no touchdowns and a long of 13.

He’s not the same player. It’s obvious.


On his best play of the day, a 23-yard reception, McCaffrey fumbled.

The disappearance of Mason is criminal. Easily one of the worst offensive coaching decisions in the NFC. The first five weeks of this season, Mason was one of the best backs in the entire NFL, blasting off for 121.8 yards per game with three touchdowns. McCaffrey was the offensive player of the year in ’23 but, the moment Shanahan realized he wasn’t himself off Achilles tendinitis (in both legs), the coach should’ve swallowed his ego. Stuck with Mason. Pivoted like all smart coaches.


To the coach’s credit, he wasn’t afraid to roll with Purdy over the player that cost him three first-round picks (Lance). But here’s Mason’s usage since McCaffrey’s return: one carry, two carries, three carries.


Mason ripped off a 16-yard run vs. the Packers and was sent right back to the bench.

McCaffrey was also blown up in pass protection by Lukas Van Ness on the sack-fumble that essentially ended the game with 12:37 still to play.


As for those back-to-back penalties for 12 men on the field, Shanahan blamed the officials. He said the 49ers needed a chance to substitute. That’s why it looked like he was responding to a home invasion in the first half.

It’s no coincidence that the coach pumped up Allen’s performance while poo-poo’ing the run defense. This is a common tactic from head coaches who do not enjoy absorbing blame as the temperature rises — divert attention to the side of the ball that is not your expertise. Shanahan has never handled criticism well. And back when he was interviewing for head-coaching jobs, one NFL exec I spoke to was turned off by his ego. Even by NFL Head Coach standards, it was inflated.



Winning games without your quarterback (Purdy), star left tackle (Trent Williams) and star edge rusher (Nick Bosa) is extremely difficult. But this also why the 49ers needed to bank wins when they had the chance to bury opponents earlier in the season. The man who played an integral role in blowing a 28-3 lead as the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator is still prone to self-destruction. In Week 3, his Niners blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter to the L.A. Rams. In Week 5, they blew a 13-point lead in the second half to the Arizona Cardinals. And last week, Seattle’s Geno Smith drove 80 yards in 2:26 to stun San Francisco.



All three, of course, are division opponents. Damning stuff.

The vibes have been terrible for a while. “Hold-in” contract situations of Williams and Brandon Aiyuk dragged on. And on. And on. Parameters of a deal with the Cleveland Browns were even in place, one source told me. The 49ers would’ve received Amari Cooper. Instead, Aiyuk didn’t want to live in Cleveland, so it was nixed. Eventually, San Francisco inked the wideout to a four-year, $120 million deal and he caught 25 balls in seven games before tearing his ACL and MCL.



Then, hey, there’s Samuel grabbing the neck of long snapper Taybor Pepper and taking a swing at kicker Jake Moody after a third missed field goal in a 23-20 win over Tampa Bay.

This 2024 season is now on life support. The Bills may pull the plug on Sunday night.


A national audience on NBC will be watching.

If the NFL starts catching up to Shanahan’s offensive scheming — there are troubling signs — the 49ers coach could have even bigger problems on his hands. He’s been lionized in the press for years as one of the greatest thinkers of our time. He has reached two Super Bowls and won three division titles. However, when the dust settles, nobody should be surprised if Shanahan is remembered as another coach devoured by a dynasty.


Bill Belichick and Tom Brady claimed many victims.

Now, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are doing the same. That fateful overtime decision may be as close as Shanahan ever gets to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.



The Running Back Quandary


Saquon Barkley stated his case for MVP in Philadelphia’s 37-20 romp of the Los Angeles Rams. He’s a man on a mission.

After shredding the Rams for 255 yards (!) on 26 attempts for a cartoonish 9.8 yards per carry, Barkley is on pace for 2,151 rushing yards this season. Yes, that’d rank No. 1 all-time. Somehow, he has outplayed his three-year, $37.75 million contract.


Philly is (MUCH) better than most of us expected, and let’s give it up to Nick Sirianni. The coach taunting his own fans after a sad win over Cleveland has steadied the ship. Painful as this sight must be for New York Giants owner John Mara, I’m not sure Barkley’s presence changes much for his franchise. Instead of 2-9, they’re… what? Maybe 4-7? The Giants’ grave mistake on the Barkley front was not trading him at the deadline in 2022. Instead of asking themselves hard questions about the state of the franchise, the Giants decided to go for it. All that dash to the playoffs did was warp the team’s opinion of Daniel Jones and delay the inevitable.

The MVP should be a quarterback award. No position is remotely as important.


Eagles GM Howie Roseman did it again. His offense is powered by three players with remarkable horsepower — Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and Barkley —and Jeff Stoutland is the best offensive line coach of this generation. They’ve leapfrogged Washington in the NFC East and are now gunning for the No. 1 seed.

New York simply hopes that Tommy DeVito doesn’t steer them out of quarterback range in the draft.


If anything, the Giants should’ve gotten out of the Barkley business sooner.

We can take this one step further, too. Back to the 2018 draft, ex-Giants GM Dave Gettleman could’ve selected a quarterback out of Wyoming named Josh Allen instead of Barkley. After all, that’s the player who deserves the MVP award 12 weeks into this 2024 season.



No Huddle

*- Commanders-Cowboys was a snoozefest for 3 1/2 quarters. Then, all hell broke loose. The two teams combined for 31 points in the final four minutes, the most for any NFL game since Dec. 8, 2013. Austin Seibert’s missed extra point was the difference and — after three straight losses — Washington is now 7-5. They should have never been in position to lose in such crushing fashion but let’s not declare them frauds yet. Looking ahead, 10-7 is the floor.


*- Over in the AFC, the Miami Dolphins are suddenly positioned to sneak into the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa has been exceptional in back-to-back wins: 605 yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions on 57-of-76 passing (75 percent). After clobbering New England, 34-15, the Dolphins are now 5-6 with a very favorable schedule: at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets. The toughest task of the bunch is obviously Green Bay. Temps should be in the 20s with a wind chill that’ll make it feel much colder. Tagovailoa’s 2023 season ended at frigid Arrowhead. He mostly has struggled in the cold. The Hawaiian native wasted no time looking ahead to Lambeau. “I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go. Bring it on,” he said. “We’ll enjoy this win, but this next one is going to be big for us, and we’re excited to go down to Green Bay and show everybody on primetime what we can do.”


*- Bryce Young showed signs of life against the back-to-back champs. In Carolina’s 30-27 loss to Kansas City, the QB threw for 263 yards and a touchdown. Loved discussing the 2023 first overall pick with Jim Monos on Substack Live last night. Monos offered a strong take in declaring that Young has outplayed C.J. Stroud this season. You can watch in full here. Either way, both the Panthers and Colts (with Anthony Richardson) need to learn as much as they can from their quarterbacks the final month of the season.


*- Aaron Jones has been everything the Minnesota Vikings could’ve hoped for in 2024. But we saw why Brian Gutekunst dared to upgrade at running back in Green Bay’s smackdown of the Niners. Josh Jacobs plowed ahead for 106 yards and continues to be money at the goal line. He’s 3 1/2 years younger, more durable, built perfect for the weather set to sweep through Wisconsin.


*- Hey, maybe Robert Kraft should’ve actually conducted a search for a new head coach. To very little public pushback, the Patriots simply handed Jerod Mayo the job. Before the 2023 season, Kraft inserted a succession clause into Mayo’s contract to lock him in as the head coach whenever Bill Belichick departed. That’s looking quite foolish. Mayo offered a wild explanation for the Patriots penalty issues on Sunday: “Look, once those guys cross the white lines, there’s nothing I can do for them,” Mayo told reporters." “There’s nothing any coach can do for them once they cross the white line. It’s my job to continue to prepare not only them, but our coaches to go out here and play better football.”


* - The Detroit Lions are playing the best football in the NFL. It’s not close. If the pass rush can heat up, good luck finding a flaw on this roster.



Email any comments and questions to golongtd@substack.com.

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YouTube: Go Long Channel

[Mainevent]

It's funny how much I watch these other games in full Dan Campbell mode now. The Vikings were up 24-16 and had the ball 4th and 1 at the Bears 7 at the two minute warning. The Bears had no timeouts left, so a first down ends the game. And in my mind it was just an absolute no brainer to go for it and end the game. Vikings tried to get Chicago to jump, they didn't and Vikings kicked the FG.

Now Chicago coming back to tie it was extremely long odds and they had to recover an onside kick to do it. And there's risk if Chicago stops the 4th down that they could drive all the way down the field and tie the score. But DC would have tried to put the hammer down and tried to end the game with his offense kneeling inside the 10, and I'm good with that killer instinct.

[froot loops]

I thought the field goal was the correct play, but I don't think much of the chances of getting an onside kick.

[Mainevent]

It wasn’t the wrong play to kick the FG - I just think DC goes for the kill shot.