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Jacksonville Jaguars Under 8.5 (-105)
People were way too high on the Jaguars last season, and under 10.5 wins was an easy win. We were going to go the other way this year, as the name of this game is zigging and zagging, but there is a pretty good chance Jacksonville will be 1-3 after road games at Miami, Buffalo and Houston (and the home game against Cleveland is no gimme). And we’re not certain receiver Gabe Davis and defensive tackle Arik Armstead are exactly home-run free-agent signings. But when it comes down to it, we’re just not sold on Trevor Lawrence being a true difference-maker, and like the upside of Stroud and Richardson in the AFC South more.
Los Angeles Rams Under 8.5 (+115)
There was a lot of great coaching in the NFL last season, as the Rams were another team that overachieved. Old man Matthew Stafford also held up — a dicey proposition to happen again — and, oh yeah, Aaron Donald is gone (though it wouldn’t shock us if the best defensive player in the game came back from retirement late in the season to help out his old friends). Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris also split (to the Falcons), and we think that’s a big deal. We like Stafford’s no-look passes, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams as much as the next guy, but we see an 8-9 team. Maybe even 7-10.
Chicago Bears Under 8.5 (+135)
Vegas is giving away money. Only 8.5? The Bears won seven games last season behind their defense, and then added quarterback Caleb Williams, receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and running back D’Andre Swift to the offense. Add in DJ Moore and that might be the best — at least the most complimentary — receiving corps in the league (yeah, Odunze was my No. 1 receiver in the draft). The defense is still stout thanks to bringing back Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson, but some things can’t be duplicated, like the league-high 22 interceptions. And no one will be looking past the Bears this year. So … no, the wiseguys do not give away money. It says here the Bears only get to seven or eight wins.
Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 (+120)
People have no respect for Deshaun Watson or what the Browns accomplished without him last season, as this is a three-game drop from their 11-win total. Cleveland needs to get off to a good start, as four of their final six games are on the road, with the two home games against the Chiefs and Dolphins. They didn’t do much this offseason either, as their big acquisitions were receiver Jerry Jeudy and backup quarterback Jameis Winston.
New Orleans Saints Over 7.5 (-120)
The Saints won nine games last season despite a rocky introduction of new QB Derek Carr, and even his many critics will tell you he is always a lot better in his second year in a system. New Orleans has some interesting pieces at receiver and Taliese Fuaga is a big-time addition to the offensive line, And they’re still in the league’s worst division. After opening the season against the Panthers, the Saints face a gauntlet of games at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at Kansas City. If they can open up 2-3, it’s smooth sailing.
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 7.5 (+ 145)
Another trap line. Surely this team is as good as last season’s 10-game winner with new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, running game guru Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator and solid draft picks like Troy Fautanu and Payton Wilson. But Pittsburgh was 9-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points, and while there will be some correction there anyway, it also comes with a brutal schedule.
They better get off to a great start because their nine games after their bye week are brutal: vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland, at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs. Kansas City and vs. Cincinnati.
Minnesota Vikings Under 6.5 (+125)
I don’t have much faith in either Sam Darnold — still getting chances as believers think the switch is finally going to flip in Year 7 — or college hand-off specialist J.J. McCarthy as a rookie. The Vikings also don’t have a very good defense and have a tough schedule. If they don’t beat the Giants on the road in the opener, there is a good chance they’re 0-6. Unless you see a win over the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets or Lions.
It’s also hard to see the Packers regretting dumping Aaron Jones and having the Vikings pick him up. That’s just not how things work out for aging running backs.
Las Vegas Raiders Over 6.5 (-145)
Minshew and Aidan O’Connell are really that bad? The Raiders won eight games last season despite some terrible coaching from Josh McDaniels and awful quarterback play from Jimmy Garoppolo over the first eight weeks. The players love new coach Antonio Pierce — owner Mark Davis didn’t even consider Jim Harbaugh — and then gave defensive tackle Christian Wilkins a Brink’s truck so teams can’t double- and triple-team Maxx Crosby. And receiver Davante Adams, still one of the best two or three receivers in the game, will open things up for rookie turbo-booster Brock Bowers. And vice versa. But they’re only going win six games because of one of the least exciting quarterback competitions ever? Nah.
Can the Maxx Crosby-led defense carry the Raiders? Given the state of the quarterback room, it will probably have to. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
Tennessee Titans Over 6.5 (+115)
This one comes down to your gut feeling on quarterback Will Levis. I think he is going to be pretty good, and would/should have been the second guy drafted if he was in this year’s draft class. He has a big arm and some toughness, along with the ability to stick a throw in traffic and scramble out of trouble. And now he has an offensive-minded coach in Brian Callahan, a revamped offensive line and an interesting receiver trio in DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Tony Pollard has to be better (and healthier) than he was last season in replacing Derrick Henry, and the Titans addressed some defensive needs in the draft. Hey, we only need seven wins! Go with my gut.
Washington Commanders Under 6.5 (Even)
If Bobby Wagner and Ekeler are two of your big free-agent signings, it’s hard to do cartwheels over a team’s chances of winning seven games. Drafting Jayden Daniels might be something to get excited about down the road, but there are going to be some growing pains this year. There is also a question if his slender body can hold up to the punishment of the NFL when he takes off running. And run he will, as this offensive line is still not very good. There are also a lot of holes on defense, but that’s OK as the new regime has plenty of time to rebuild the roster. Don’t back a team full of placeholders.
Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 (-160)
Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a big help to Kyler Murray, as will a revamped offensive line. James Conner is still a load carrying the ball and tight end Trey McBride is going to make everyone a lot of money in fantasy football. The Cardinals also got better defensively with savvy, understated free-agent pickups like cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and draft picks like defensive lineman Darius Robinson and cornerback Max Melton. Plus, we realized that we picked the 49ers and Rams to both go under their totals in the NFC West, so the Cardinals and Seahawks cash in on some of that.
Carolina Panthers Under 5.5 (-105)
Everybody loves guards. Who knew? The Panthers spent $150 million on guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, and people are pounding the over, betting this number up from 4.5. While Bryce Young will take less than the 62 sacks he was hit with last season, and Diontae Johnson should prove to be a reliable target, I don’t know if I see three more wins than last season. I didn’t love the draft haul, there will be some growing pains for new coach Dave Canales, and Brian Burns was a big loss on defense.
Denver Broncos Under 5.5 (+120)
This is quite a drop from last year’s total of eight wins, although two of those came against a Chargers team quarterbacked by Easton Stick. While I think taking Bo Nix 12th in an NFL Draft is negligence, I also think Sean Payton can mold him pretty quickly into a functional robot who can run for first downs when things break down. Russell Wilson, it turns out, had enough experience, success and free thought that he was going to follow his instincts sometimes and not just throw it exactly where Payton wanted. He also missed many of those throws, which was an issue.
Denver is going to win either five or six games, as while it has a brutal schedule (AFC North, and an opening four games at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh, at Tampa Bay and at the Jets), it will catch some teams later looking past them and then huffing and puffing at Mile High. Give me five wins.
New England Patriots Over 4.5 (-160)
The Patriots were awful last season, and I do think Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett give them more hope at quarterback this season. The biggest reason, though, that I am going against the public — this number has already been bet down from 5.5 wins — is because the huge breath of fresh air that new coach Jerod Mayo must be from deposed king Bill Belichick.
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