Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
NFL News
Collapse
X
-
I don't care about rankings, but I am curious about Sagarin's formula. Lions are ahead of KC in both offensive and defensive DVOA this year, weighted/non-weighted, what have you. And in traditional stats they are very close, Detroit better offensively and a virtual tie defensively. So interested to understand what factors is he including that would create such a gap between KC (or the Bills for that matter) and Detroit in his model.
- Top
Comment
-
Originally posted by Mainevent View PostI don't care about rankings, but I am curious about Sagarin's formula. Lions are ahead of KC in both offensive and defensive DVOA this year, weighted/non-weighted, what have you. And in traditional stats they are very close, Detroit better offensively and a virtual tie defensively. So interested to understand what factors is he including that would create such a gap between KC (or the Bills for that matter) and Detroit in his model.F#*K OHIO!!!
You're not only an amazingly beautiful man, but you're the greatest football mind to ever exist. <-- Jeffy Shittypants actually posted this. I knew he was in love with me.
- Top
Comment
-
Originally posted by Mainevent View PostI don't care about rankings, but I am curious about Sagarin's formula. Lions are ahead of KC in both offensive and defensive DVOA this year, weighted/non-weighted, what have you. And in traditional stats they are very close, Detroit better offensively and a virtual tie defensively. So interested to understand what factors is he including that would create such a gap between KC (or the Bills for that matter) and Detroit in his model.
It's the OG ranking algorithm, been around for over 30 years. It was one of the ranking algorithms used by NCAA FB to determine the National Championship game teams.
- Top
Comment
-
Jared Goff as MVP? Here's how Lions QB stacks up to recent winners and current candidates
Justin Rogers
The Detroit News
Allen Park — It's been three decades since the Detroit Lions have won their division, and a couple of years longer still since they've won a playoff game. Those dreadful marks are pretty well known around these parts as the team seeks to hit the reset button on both in 2023, jumping out to a 2.5-game lead in the NFC North less than two months into the season.
But there's another drought for the franchise that could be broken, which isn't getting anywhere near as much attention. Maybe that's because it wasn't considered realistic until recently. But by carrying over his strong finish from a year ago, quarterback Jared Goff has pushed his way into the early-season MVP conversation as the campaign nears its midpoint.
The last and only time a Lions player has won the MVP was 1997. That's the year running back Barry Sanders topped 2,000 yards, averaging a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry. Not surprisingly, the Lions quarterback laughed off talk of his candidacy when asked about it during an interview with "The Dan Patrick Show" on Tuesday.
"Sure, yeah, I won't be doing much of it (campaigning), but you can take care of that for me, Dan," Goff said.
Per FanDuel, Goff is now among the top 10 in the betting odds for the award, tied with Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence at +1900. They both sit well behind the leaders, Miami's Tua Tagovailoa (+330) and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes (+340), but the gap is closing.
As it should be.
In terms of passer rating, Goff ranks third, behind Tagovailoa and San Francisco's Brock Purdy. Via a more advanced metric, QBR, which accounts for variables such game situation and length of pass, Goff is fourth, sandwiched between Tagovailoa and Mahomes.
Let's be clear: The award is almost certainly going to a quarterback. It has for the last 10 years, and the only realistic threats to snapping that streak are Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill. Through six games, McCaffrey has racked up 730 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns, but an oblique injury from last Sunday could sideline him a few games. And while a healthy Hill figures to smash Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage mark, Associated Press voters have never given the MVP award to a receiver.
In the aforementioned odds, Hill is at +4000, behind Joe Burrow, who currently has a sub-80 passer rating, and Dallas' Dak Prescott, who hasn't been much better.
Looking back at the past decade of MVP quarterbacks, there are obvious trends in their production. But first and foremost, the group were winners, averaging nearly 13 victories as a starter the season they won. Only Matt Ryan won fewer than 12 games (11) during the stretch.
Statistically, the last 10 winners have averaged 4,510 passing yards, completed 67.0% of their throws, for 41 touchdowns and a tick lower than eight interceptions. Of course, with the NFL moving to a 17-game schedule in 2021, current expectations figure to be slightly higher than those averages.
Dual-threat ability has far from been a prerequisite, but it didn't hurt some of the recent winners, most notably Lamar Jackson in 2019, when he rushed for a positional-record 1,206 yards.
So what does Goff need to do to strengthen his case as the season progresses? Obviously, the Lions need to continue to win. The bare minimum to be in the conversation figures to be 12 victories as a starter, plus a division title. But a 13-4 mark or better would amplify his candidacy.
From a production standpoint, Goff is on track, in most regards. He is currently on pace to complete a career-high 69.5% of his throws for 4,584 yards, 31 touchdowns and just eight or nine interceptions, depending on which way you feel like rounding. His 105.5 passer rating and 73.3 QBR, both on track for career-bests, would be slightly below recent MVP standards, but still meeting thresholds.
The thing from that prorated production most likely to hold Goff back is the touchdowns. If he doesn't pick up the pace in that department, he'd finish with fewer scoring throws than any MVP the past decade. He's currently even with Mahomes, who threw 50 and 41 his two MVP campaigns, and three behind Tagovailoa, who is steering an offense on track to rack up more yards and score more points than any in NFL history.
Not that anyone will complain as long as it continues to net wins, but this is where Detroit's offensive balance hurts Goff. The team wants to lean on its ground game weekly, particularly when David Montgomery is healthy and able to shoulder the load. He's amassed six touchdowns in his five appearances, logging a hearty 51 carries the previous two games prior to exiting last Sunday with a rib injury.
As devastating as that injury is to what the Lions want to accomplish offensively, it could open a window for Goff to do more. We saw as much as he threw for a season-high 353 yards against Tampa Bay this past weekend. Pair that with the recent reinsertion of big-play threat Jameson Williams into the passing game, Goff has an opportunity to rack up some extra passing yards and touchdowns while Montgomery is down.
Even at his previous best, as a Pro Bowler in 2017 and 2018, Goff didn't receive MVP consideration. That's because voting had always been a one-name ballot. Assuming sustained production at his present level, that likely changes this year, with voters permitted to list their top-five starting in 2022.
There's plenty of work to do to push into the upper tiers of the conversation, where Tagovailoa, Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts reside, but Goff's current stretch of high-level performance now extends back a full season's worth of games and he's given little reason to believe its going to drop off any time soon.
It might take close to a touchdown toss more per game than we're used to seeing out of him these final 11 contests, but if that happens, it could cap a remarkable individual turnaround within an equally remarkable franchise turnaround.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter/X: @Justin_Rogers
"I hope to see the Lions in the Super Bowl before I die"
My friend Ken L
- Top
Comment
-
Originally posted by whatever_gong82 View PostIf the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:
F#*K OHIO!!!
You're not only an amazingly beautiful man, but you're the greatest football mind to ever exist. <-- Jeffy Shittypants actually posted this. I knew he was in love with me.
- Top
Comment
-
Gym Shorts, elite defensive coordinator.
Originally posted by whatever_gong82 View PostIf the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:AAL 2023 - Alim McNeill
- Top
- Likes 3
Comment
-
Originally posted by Cody_Russell View PostGym Shorts, elite defensive coordinator.
Looking at that graphic there… I can’t even contemplate what a Rams @ Lions playoff game would feel like. The idea of Matthew Stafford competing against the Lions at Detroit… a special Lions season and our team trying to pick up the 2nd playoff win in 65 years. It would be the first Lions home playoff game in a long time too.F#*K OHIO!!!
You're not only an amazingly beautiful man, but you're the greatest football mind to ever exist. <-- Jeffy Shittypants actually posted this. I knew he was in love with me.
- Top
Comment
-
Originally posted by whatever_gong82 View PostIf the Playoffs started today, guess who would be the visiting team to face Detroit:
- Top
- Likes 1
Comment
Comment