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[Futureshock]

Eh, I bet if you start paring down the drafts of those teams, their boom/bust rate isn't going to be measurably higher than your average team.

It's not that you are wrong; it's not purely a crap shoot. But there's a lot of elements of luck involved in what makes a "good" or "great" draft that you don't seem to want to acknowledge either. If for no reason that there's no guarantee [x] guy will be at [y] pick outside of #1 overall, blind luck plays a factor.

Yeah, like not smoking will make most people have less of a chance to catch cancer.

Just listen to Chark talk about the environment under Urban. WTH could flourish under that? Patricia?



Report: Ex-Jaguars HC Urban Meyer 'Berated a Player so Harshly That the Player


We saw Lawrence look like a bust under Meyer. Anyone wanna guess what will happen this year under Pederson?

[froot loops]

No it's not. BAL, PIT, BUF, etc... It is not a crap shoot. It is life. Take 1 week as a hiring manager and you'll understand that there are certain things you learn to look for. You also start to smell lies and deception better. But the best thing that these teams have is the tape. Then it gets down to what is their personal life like?

Also, people never take into account the environment the player goes to. It happens without fail consistently in drafts. You say to yourself, "why did they draft that position they are already good there?" And the player, or the other player(s) growth is stymied. Then yahoos rein down on the player saying he's a bust. If he was drafted high enough he'll get a shot elsewhere. If it is where he can flourish, he does (if he isn't broken by then).

i.e. Arden Key. He was terrible with the Raiders because their system and environment was toxic for him. He goes to SF where he's used properly for his game and voila he is hot now.

It is work that most teams and players don't really want to do. If you treat your players like they matter and you mentor and train them up, I think you hedge your bets.

Lastly, a lot, like most, people don't even watch a video of a player and just parrot what other people are parroting. There's no way a thousand people have 75% of the same picks if they are only looking at their own info.

It's not a crap shoot. It is life. Through the best laid plans of mice and men, life gets in the way.

No not really, Buffalo was a shit organization for 20 fucking years. If you are great at drafting and can't get in the playoffs for 20 years, you might not be good at drafting. There is no evidence that in the long run they draft better. A lot of the teams you are pointing to are successful because they are playing the comp pick game.

[Nick Pappageorgio]

Yeah....teams might have a hot 2-3 year run but, I think if you really look at those teams' drafts over time you see regression toward the mean.

[jaadam4]

As far as Mayock, he was screwed up by Gruden's tinkering and bs. Almost every bad pick has Gruden's finger prints all over them.

Man the Raiders first rounders were really bad

[jaadam4]

Yeah, like not smoking will make most people have less of a chance to catch cancer.

Just listen to Chark talk about the environment under Urban. WTH could flourish under that? Patricia?



Report: Ex-Jaguars HC Urban Meyer 'Berated a Player so Harshly That the Player


We saw Lawrence look like a bust under Meyer. Anyone wanna guess what will happen this year under Pederson?

i read the interview in the Athletic. Chark made Urbs sound even worse and I wasn’t sure how that would be possible. Meyer was an unbelievable college coach but man did he shit the bed with his BS in the pros

[froot loops]

Yeah....teams might have a hot 2-3 year run but, I think if you really look at those teams' drafts over time you see regression toward the mean.

Yep, that's what the data in these studies implies. I think the issue is when people offer up the perennially successful organizations as the ones who draft well what they are talking about is actually is they are good at developing players, finding free agents UDFAs and middle level FAs. And it doesn't hurt to have a franchise quarterback. Those teams have established some sort of culture where everyone is going in the same direction, but to establish that culture you need some sort of success.

The Lions have always tried to establish this patient culture but they haven't had the success. They are endlessly ping ponging around what they want to do.

[Nick Pappageorgio]

All that being said….having 2-3 very good drafts in a row can set the table for a 10-year run (especially if you hit on a QB).

[jaadam4]

All that being said….having 2-3 very good drafts in a row can set the table for a 10-year run (especially if you hit on a QB).

They have to hit on a QB or it won't matter. In this NFL game managers won't double our playoff victory total let alone contend for a SB. I just hope Holmes doesn't get pressured into drafting a QB in a weak class trying to find that guy. If they really like someone then fine but I hope they're not talking themselves into someone just to play the lottery

[Nick Pappageorgio]

I’m starting to feel like Willis might be the pick

[froot loops]

Joe Burrow was a game manager these playoffs, Jimmy G is a game manager. The Lions had a star franchise quarterback and they got nowhere near contention. You need a team to surround the quarterback.

[jaadam4]

Joe Burrow was a game manager these playoffs, Jimmy G is a game manager. The Lions had a star franchise quarterback and they got nowhere near contention. You need a team to surround the quarterback.

Jimmy G is a game manager by skill set. Joe Burrow is not

[froot loops]

But the Bengals went through the playoffs with Burrow playing like a game manager, he relied on his defense. It's true.

[TheLondonLion]

I’m starting to feel like Willis might be the pick

Why, out of interest?

[jaadam4]

But the Bengals went through the playoffs with Burrow playing like a game manager, he relied on his defense. It's true.

He didn’t have the best playoff numbers thats for sure but it was also his first post season. He might of had game manager numbers for the post season but his skillset is a franchise QB, not a game manager

[jaadam4]

Unless your calling 4600 passing yards and a QB rating of 108 as game manager numbers. He was in the top 10 for TD and passing yards this year