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Old September 29th, 2016, 07:46 PM   #41
Paul L
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From ESPN:

Wisconsin linebacker Vince Biegel underwent surgery Thursday night to have a screw inserted for a cracked foot, his father, Rocky, told me. He said he hopes Biegel is out only 2-4 weeks. The news comes as a devastating blow ahead of No. 8 Wisconsin's game against No. 4 Michigan. Biegel has started 46 career games with 32 starts.
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Old September 29th, 2016, 08:15 PM   #42
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The S&P + Five Factors analysis for M v. Wisky is out there for your reading pleasure ...... it's awful, unless your'e like me and obsessively pour through this stuff. Here it is:

UM-O vs UW-D:
Run points = 16.3
Pass points = 19.5
Total Std points = 35.8

UW-O vs UM-D:
Run points = 14.7
Pass points = 14.8
Total Std points = 29.5

That's a 6-7 point spread with Vegas calling it closer to 10. I'm not into betting but from what I've read the books are hoping bettors will be enticed to take Wisconsin and the points...... meaning they think M will win by 10.5+

Couple of points. If M doesn't turn it over (and it is going to be a wet game so the likelihood of turnovers increases for both teams) and Peppers turns an INT into a pick-six or runs back a punt or KO, M will cover the Vegas line (10).

Beigel gone eliminates one aspect of Wisconsin's very good pass rush and makes it more likely that Speight is going to have the time he needs to connect down field.

There's a piece on mgoblog by Ace that breaks down a weakness of Wisconsin's D - the match-up between Cole and Wisconsin's NT who is not anywhere near as agile as CU's was - makes Wisconsin vulnerable to trap plays. MSU had success with this play early but, for reasons not understood, didn't go back to it. It's a play tailor made for Smith and Harbaugffense is loaded with variations on the trap theme.

As well, M will test the zone behind very aggressive LB play with a back side that is not as good as M's is. If Speight and his receivers (esp, Butt and Darboh or any of the backs leaking out into this zone) get hot with this sort of short to mid-range passing game and its not too wet for receivers to hold on, M is going to make Wisky's DC pay for the aggressiveness he seems to like with his LBs. Pick your poison it will be looking like.

M 41, Wisconsin 20

Things that will make me and that prediction look stupid:

(1) Turnovers (duh)
(2) Smith can't see the massive hole right in front of him
(3) Dropsies
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Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; September 30th, 2016 at 08:16 AM.
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Old September 29th, 2016, 08:24 PM   #43
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M 30, Wisconsin 17.
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Old September 29th, 2016, 09:39 PM   #44
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Gotta say, I'm not QUITE as confident as Pro Football Focus is:

No. 8 Wisconsin at No. 4 Michigan
Line: Michigan, -10.5

Under/Over: 44.5

While Wisconsin should be able to keep the Michigan offense in relative check — at least in comparison to the Wolverines’ first four opponents — their power game on offense plays right into the hands of Michigan’s elite defense. The Badgers have scored 85 of their 113 non-garbage time points (better than 75 percent) via long, grinding drives lasting at least six plays, while Michigan’s defense has yielded just 10 points on drives of that length. Without the threat of being able to explosively move the ball downfield against Michigan’s elite corners, Wisconsin will be forced to rely on something that simply hasn’t been done against Michigan this year.

Prediction: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 3
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Old September 29th, 2016, 09:54 PM   #45
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I have a feeling mother nature is going to play a big part in the game on Sat. It's going to be a tough one in the elements
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Old September 30th, 2016, 12:23 AM   #46
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It could very well just be a sloppy puntfest. M 17-13.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 05:47 AM   #47
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As of 6:30 this AM the prediction is 50% chance of rain at kickoff diminishing to 30% by 5PM. I am in AA with my med school reunion and will be at the game. Will try to get over to Doug's tailgate beforehand.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 07:10 AM   #48
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Losing Biegel is a pretty big deal.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 10:27 AM   #49
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Every single prediction I've seen is for Michigan to win, which is kind of scary given Wisconsin's record. Nevertheless, the Biegel injury does help in that regard. Both teams have been playing well, but Michigan also has the home field advantage. I hope it doesn't rain too much.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 11:54 AM   #50
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I agree with The Oracle's assessment.
This game reminds me of NW vs Michigan last year (Michigan won 38-0 btw). NW beat Stanford week 1 last year, just as Wisconsin beat LSU.
Freshman QB at the Big House... Out Vince Biegel... Starting kicker and punter are out (though the replacements for Wisconsin seem serviceable, just not as good).
Troy Fumagalli worries me, but he isn't explosive or anything.
Contain him on 3rd down conversions and you'll be good ... McCray, Gedeon, Peppers, Hill, or Thomas...
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Old September 30th, 2016, 11:56 AM   #51
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That wasn't my assessment BTW...Pro Football Focus. I think somewhere in the 31-13 range.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 12:10 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Oracle View Post
That wasn't my assessment BTW...Pro Football Focus. I think somewhere in the 31-13 range.
Ah yes, I see that now.

Perhaps it's obvious: I'm thinking the biggest threat for Michigan to give up points to Wisconsin is off turnovers.
Michigan only has 2 turnovers this season so far (1 was on the first drive vs Hawaii). Wisconsin has forced several turnovers so far this season, but they are minus Biegel. Watt has been a good LB and Cichy has history... I think Cichy had sacks on 3 straight plays in a Wisconsin game last year.
Wisconsin went for it on 4th down twice in MSU territory last game. Their backup kicker made a 41 yard kick, but maybe Wisconsin isn't that confident in this guy.

That's why I'm predicting: Michigan 26, Wisconsin 7. Slight chance for the shutout because Wisconsin isn't as good in the kicking game due to injuries. Just avoid turnovers please.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 02:58 PM   #53
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I must be the only person outside the State of Wisconsin who thinks they win it. 24-17 Wisky
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Old September 30th, 2016, 04:20 PM   #54
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Yes, UMStan, yours is the first pick I've seen for the Badgers.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 05:13 PM   #55
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3 of the 4 schmucks on Around The Horn picked Wisconsin as well.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 05:20 PM   #56
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Schmucks is right. Guarantee no one on that show has seen a down of Michigan or Wisconsin...and I have no idea who was on there today.
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Old September 30th, 2016, 05:22 PM   #57
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Michigan wins. 10 points.


BOOK IT!
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Old September 30th, 2016, 11:20 PM   #58
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Called the booky and booked it. 10 points + 15 more. Michigan by 25. I may lose my wife and house.
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Old October 1st, 2016, 06:53 AM   #59
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Is she heavily mortgaged?
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Old October 1st, 2016, 07:32 AM   #60
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Took a look at the NOAA Discussion and maps. There's a low pressure system stalled and spinning right along the Indiana/Kentucky boarder but conditions don't support heavy rain in SE MI and it will dissipate as the morning progresses. After 3p there may be some increased shower activity as the conditions along this low pressure trough do support some increased rain chances later in the afternoon but it will be light and sporadic.

Right now, on the Radar, there's a band of showers along the Eastern side of Lake Michigan that is lifting northeastward and well clear of Ann Arbor. Ann Arbor and the surrounding area is cloudy but dry.

I don't see any huge downpours or lightning affecting the game but NOAA has kept a chance of that in the forecast. I'd say the WX is a little better looking this morning than it was on Wednesday when it looked like the game would be a wash-out. There's a gal who does a weather report at mgoblog, she's a USAF Forecaster, who is even calling for some sun trying to find it's way out by kick-off.
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Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; October 1st, 2016 at 07:35 AM.
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