DetroitLionsForum.com
Want to assist with forum hosting and upgrade costs?  Click here to make a PayPal donation:
Please support the forum by using this link to shop with our sponsor:


Go Back   DetroitLionsForum.com > Sports Discussion Forums > University of Michigan

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old September 26th, 2016, 07:30 AM   #21
iam416
Senior Member
 
iam416's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 13,743
The line opened at 11' indicating what Vegas models have it as. The bettors have been hitting Wisky hard and have driven it down to 10 (10' in spots).

This is a classic case of the perception of a 30-6 win versus the reality of what that game was.
__________________
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
iam416 is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 26th, 2016, 08:06 AM   #22
hack
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 13,160
I like his decision-making under pressure, for the most part. I like that he's hard to take down and has the footwork to avoid the initial pass rusher. I do fear that some of his bail-out throws are ripe to be picked off. I bet there's a bad int coming at some point soon. But it sure does seem like he responds to pressure with focus.
hack is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 26th, 2016, 10:51 AM   #23
froot loops
Senior Member
 
froot loops's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: I'm great
Posts: 32,317
Quote:
Originally Posted by iam416 View Post
The line opened at 11' indicating what Vegas models have it as. The bettors have been hitting Wisky hard and have driven it down to 10 (10' in spots).

This is a classic case of the perception of a 30-6 win versus the reality of what that game was.
I somewhat agree, the turnovers really turned the game for good but the Spartans really couldn't do much against the Badgers at all. They earned every bit of a 30-6 loss.
froot loops is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 26th, 2016, 08:19 PM   #24
Jeff Buchanan
Senior Member
 
Jeff Buchanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 6,709
This is only the first half of wisky's offense v. MSU's defense. Somebody put this together and there's another half out there somewhere and I'll post it when I find it but you be the judge about Wisky's fear factor on O.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/so3vmx4hgx...20Half.ts?dl=0
__________________
On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
Jeff Buchanan is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 26th, 2016, 10:06 PM   #25
WM Wolverine
Senior Member
 
WM Wolverine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Michigan
Posts: 8,686
Badgers defense is clearly their strength, not sure how M's offense is going to respond... I don't see us scoring 30+ points offensively...

Have confidence that M's defense will hold Wisconsin's offense down quite well. O/U figure should be extremely low.
WM Wolverine is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 26th, 2016, 10:52 PM   #26
jaadam4
Senior Member
 
jaadam4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Africa!!
Posts: 27,348
hopefully they kick to Peppers
jaadam4 is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 26th, 2016, 11:15 PM   #27
klondike
Senior Member
 
klondike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,678
The blow out win is the best thing that could have happened for the up coming game. I think that Wisconsin played well but got some breaks and was the benefit of a very lethargic performance from the Spartans, with a troubled QB to boot. they chose to not put much pressure on their freshman qb, which I find hard to believe.

It's a much better set up than if they lost in a close hard fought game.

Michigan should win and perhaps convincible.
klondike is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 27th, 2016, 12:29 AM   #28
The Oracle
Senior Member
 
The Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posts: 7,176
I could see us getting to 30, but not much more than. I'm uneasy, admittedly from the Hoke years/OSU last year, but my gut says 31-13 or something like that. I don't think they do shot on offense unless we really fuck up.
The Oracle is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 27th, 2016, 07:52 AM   #29
Jeff Buchanan
Senior Member
 
Jeff Buchanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 6,709
The little that I've read does suggest a strong Wisconsin D built on LBs and two guys that PFF likes:

This victory (v. MSU) owed much to the play of edge rushers Vince Biegel and T.J. Watt who recorded two sacks and an impressive 20 total QB pressures between them.

Encouragingly, Magnusen (RT) and Newsome (LT) both graded out very well v. PSU's rush and Speight seems to handle pressure well. Yeah, he's had his moments where he's flung some stuff out there that he probably should not have but he does have good downfield awareness when he moves. With JH and Fish coaching him, you can see since that first INT he threw, he's become really turnover consicious. I feel good about him v. Wisky's D.

Something we started to become aware of last season and can see it more clearly this one is that Harbaugffense isn't as run heavy as one would think it would be. M's pass run ratio 4 games in to the 2016 season is 43%/56% ....... it would be neat to be able to see this broken down into pass/run outside the 20 and inside the 20 as my eyeball tells me that M moves the ball by throwing it more outside the 20 while running more inside the 20 and especially inside the 10 (15 rushing TDs/9 passing).

I did find this kinda neat chart that shows how each conference shakes out with respect to pass/run % based on the 2015 season. First, you can see the BIG is a run heavy conference compared to the PAC. You can also see how inefficient M's O was in that configuration in 2015. That's going to improve in a similar chart for 2016 as YPC is now almost double what it was in 2015.

My point is that JH throws the ball a lot more than I expected him to. It's not as near as much as the NFL pass to run ration (55%/45%) but it is more than I expected and I sense by the eyeball check that it is a lot more than BIG teams running any semblance of pro-style O (including the hybrids that incorporate some of spread concepts into their offenses, e.g., Minny).

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...ffenses-styles

Expanding this perception or idea into the match-up with Wisconsin, M can and will deliver a passing game that moves the chains more effectively than MSU was able to do. Darboh and Butt playing a role there and hopefully Chesson getting targeted and making the catches 20+ yards down the field. If that plays, as I think it will, this forces Wisconsin into a less aggressive approach up front, opens the edges and if M gets into a rhythm offensively will score points. Maybe a lot more than most of us are thinking they will right now.

I also took a look at the Five Factors for both teams last Saturday. Up through week 3, M's yards per play (explosiveness) ranked in the bottom 50 along with Wisconsin's. Here's 3 of the five factors for each team for week 4:

YPP = 6(M), 4(PSU).
Scoring Opportunities = 9, 2.
Success Rate = 48%, 25%

YPP = 5(W), 4(MSU).
Scoring Opportunities = 5, 6.
Success Rate = 32%, 33%.

What stands out to me is the differentials between M v. PSU and MSU v. Wisconsin. They are huge in M's favor and the score reflects that. They are much narrower in the Wisky/MSU game and suggest that the game was much closer than the score reflects (turnovers, obviously).

The point is that Wisconsin may not be a team that actually performs to the level of it's current ranking nor is it one that is a threat to be explosive, nor a threat to take advantage of every opportunity it has to score points. While M, OTH, is very efficient (has been through week 3) and improved in the explosiveness category (I don't have cumulative stats yet and they sucked in that category through week 3).

While there is the perception that Wisconsin's win over MSU portends a much tougher battle for M this weekend, the numbers don't support that perception. I do believe M's D is a bit better than MSU's (Stats support that view) and M's offense is on a par or slightly better than MSU's. With that in mind, if M doesn't turn it over like MSU did, this should be a much easier win for M than perceptions would indicate..... and I've been screwed over royally for this kind of analysis in the past but, heh, it's fun when the numbers come out in your favor. But, football.
__________________
On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
Jeff Buchanan is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 27th, 2016, 09:55 AM   #30
WM Wolverine
Senior Member
 
WM Wolverine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Michigan
Posts: 8,686
30+ points offensively could be possible if the offense gets alot of help from the defense, special teams as M has had in nearly every game this season.
WM Wolverine is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 27th, 2016, 10:57 AM   #31
Wellington_beefhouser
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: DFW
Posts: 795
As a lions fan, I hope they draft TJ Watt. Kid is all over the field.
__________________
Monkeys don't sell bananas.
Wellington_beefhouser is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 28th, 2016, 05:39 PM   #32
Cody_Russell
Senior Member
 
Cody_Russell's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 11,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaadam4 View Post
hopefully they kick to Peppers
Wisconsin's punter is a freshman.
Lotti, his longest punt this year is 48 yards, but consistently around 40.
Not nearly as good as Sam Martin or that Alabama punter, but it's gotta be better than Colorado's punter.
__________________
Go Detroit Lions!
Cody_Russell is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 28th, 2016, 06:39 PM   #33
jaadam4
Senior Member
 
jaadam4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Africa!!
Posts: 27,348
It sounds like Mone has been practicing this week. That's great news
jaadam4 is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 04:40 PM   #34
Hannibal
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 7,635
Rumor mill via mgoblog -- Biegel broke his foot in practice and will be out.
Hannibal is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 04:57 PM   #35
Paul L
Senior Member
 
Paul L's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Southeast, MI
Posts: 2,121
Wow; that's a huge loss if so. He was all over the field against sparty
__________________
Repugnant is the creature who would squander the ability to lift an eye to heaven, conscious of his fleeting time here.
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 05:12 PM   #36
jaadam4
Senior Member
 
jaadam4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Africa!!
Posts: 27,348
rumors rumors rumors. I'll wait until it's official
jaadam4 is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 05:34 PM   #37
Cody_Russell
Senior Member
 
Cody_Russell's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 11,951
These rumors come from the same "Isaac Nauta to Michigan" source?

__________________
Go Detroit Lions!
Cody_Russell is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 06:12 PM   #38
jaadam4
Senior Member
 
jaadam4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Africa!!
Posts: 27,348
one of the football players dentist
jaadam4 is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 06:22 PM   #39
Paul L
Senior Member
 
Paul L's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Southeast, MI
Posts: 2,121
They're always the first to know
__________________
Repugnant is the creature who would squander the ability to lift an eye to heaven, conscious of his fleeting time here.
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old September 29th, 2016, 06:52 PM   #40
The Oracle
Senior Member
 
The Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posts: 7,176
Had a screw put in his foot yesterday, apparently.
The Oracle is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:28 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
All logos and trademarks in this site are property of their respective owners. The comments are property of their posters, all the rest © DetroitLionsForum.com.
This site is a non-profit fan site and IS NOT affiliated with the NFL or Detroit Lions or any other sports team. Please visit the official site of the Detroit Lions for official information on the Lions.