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Old November 15th, 2017, 01:49 PM   #18081
Jeff Buchanan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
Oh they are good enough to wail Michigan. The problem is that Penn State already beat you to the punch.
You're an engineering guy that works with objective data. Upon what are you basing your presumption that osu is going to wail on M.

While you're thinking on this one, I'm going to gather some early data. It's time to start digging up stuff that I can "discuss" with talent.
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Old November 15th, 2017, 02:08 PM   #18082
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If I were Hannibal, I would certainly cite common opponents. Like, all 5 of them.

If I were fancystats-oriented, I'd point to OSU's #1 S&P ranking and other very high fancystats ranks vs. M's 20ish rankings.

Now, I don't think UFM can wail HARBAUGH!!!! in AA. Well, at least not AGAIN. So, I disagree with Hanni. I think it's a very close game. But that's relying way more on subjective feel than objective data. Objective shit points more toward a decisive win, Mr. Fancystats.
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Old November 15th, 2017, 02:36 PM   #18083
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double reverse hex voodoo
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Old November 15th, 2017, 02:48 PM   #18084
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Originally Posted by iam416 View Post
If I were Hannibal, I would certainly cite common opponents. Like, all 5 of them......
There are two that standout as meaningful - PSU and MSU. osu won those games and M didn't. The rest, meh.

The win is what counts but in the case of PSU, that was a miraculous come back of an otherwise thoroughly beaten football team. Credit due and I'm not taking away from that comeback win engineered by ufm and executed, in particular, by jtb.

Both M and osu have gotten rocked by seemingly and at the time decent competition (M by PSU, osu by Iowa). Without the fancy stats, which I'll delve into later, M and osu, at this point in the season, are CFB teams with identifiable weakness and/or flaws, albeit different ones, that one could say make them have some equivalency in terms of feelings ball.

So, you and I are in agreement that The Game, is going to be close.
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Old November 15th, 2017, 03:00 PM   #18085
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I think that Auburn and Ohio State are two of the best teams in the country and both have inexplicable losses. LSU and Auburn.

Hard to fault the Tigers for losing at Clemson early and ditto the Buckeyes and the Sooners.

And just like that, SB Nation predicts Auburn and Ohio State to make the playoffs.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-after-week-11
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Old November 15th, 2017, 03:05 PM   #18086
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Every team this season has flaws. That doesn't mean Alabama and Purdue have any meaningful equivalency. That's just stupid.

Against every common opponent, Ohio State has massively outperformed M:

MSU: +49
IU: +28 (end of regulation)
Penn State: +30
Rutgers: +35
Maryland: +23

Further, you could throw in Army/AFA -- ok, so Army is way better than AFA, but I'd even let that slide: +21 (Noting that Army won at AFA by 21).

So, for the 5 common opponents OSU has outperformed M from 23 to 49 points and averaged +33.

I don't think that suggests the two are even.
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Old November 15th, 2017, 03:20 PM   #18087
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Auburn and Alabama have five common opponents so far (Bama plays Mercer Saturday and Auburn played them earlier in the year).

While it's true that Bama is 5-0 and Auburn is 4-1, it is also true that of those 5 opponents, Auburn has outperformed Bama 3 times -to Bama's 2.
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Old November 15th, 2017, 05:34 PM   #18088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iam416 View Post
Every team this season has flaws. That doesn't mean Alabama and Purdue have any meaningful equivalency. That's just stupid.

Against every common opponent, Ohio State has massively outperformed M:
In the end, M and osu have identical records. osu is operating with it's starting QB who is a Heisman kind of guy. ufm's offense frequently produces gaudy numbers. The osu D is really good.

M is operating with it's 3rd string QB, a RS Freshman. Moreover, style of play between these two teams, on offense and defense, are very different. M's is plodding offense if not, of late, fairly efficient.

Against Maryland, the Terps out-gained M but M dominated the field position metric and that's why the yardage totals are so different and the scoring margin so wide.

You can call the equivalency argument stupid but no more so than building an argument based on things like score differential between common opponents. That's one way to look at it. Not the only way.

BTW, I briefly scanned advanced stats trying to find some objective advantage that M possessed that I could raise in M's upcoming match-up with the bucks. I couldn't find any. Besides, there's a guy at mgoblog that does a really good comparative analysis and adjusts advantages/disadvantages in a unique sort of way. I suspect that osu will hold the edge in every advanced stat category but I'll await this guys analysis.

Needless to say, from an offensive standpoint, osu and M represent very different approaches. Even if M had USC's Darnold or UCLA's Rosen, I'm not convinced the offense would be scoring 40+ points a game combined with huge point differentials. Harbaughffese works on the principle of sustaining long drives, keeping the opponent's O off the field and D on it by that means as well as by a stout defense. The goal here is to wear a team down by the 4th quarter. Meanwhile JH wants to win the turnover and field position battle. His offense by it's nature, when it's working and on a good day, against good competition is going to score 28-35 points, less in a low scoring rock fight that M will probably win v. Wisky or osu.
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Old November 15th, 2017, 08:03 PM   #18089
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To be clear, you took Hannibal to task for not "objectively" supportin his position that OSU will wail M. I pointed out that Hanni has various options to do so including 5 common opponents. Those are objective facts. What you do to explain away those objective facts is largely subjective and, at times, homeristic excuses.

Now, I'm all for nuance, subjective takes and all the other good stuff that goes with CFB discussion. I wouldn't call someone out for lack of objective support.
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