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Old October 15th, 2017, 07:20 PM   #21
Jeff Buchanan
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Froot, you have been watching the M games, yes? I know you watched JOK throw three INTs v. your boys, right? ..... and two of those were just, well, right in the chest of the MSU defenders, yes?

It's not defeatism. It's a reality check.... and that reality check can be backed up by most of the measurables. By Friday, I'll get back to with the Advanced Stats that will compare M's weaknesses with PSU's strengths and vice-versa. I'm predicting these won't be pretty.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 07:22 PM   #22
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I think M beats Penn State and shocks the world!
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Old October 15th, 2017, 07:25 PM   #23
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I think Michigan will win.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 07:29 PM   #24
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How did your analytics predict the MSU/UM? I thought the line on MSU/UM was absurd. You have a top defense, you have a good coach, you should win the game. What O'Korn did against MSU is irrelevant to Saturday. You guys act like you need everything stacked in your favor to win the game. Have some confidence.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 07:40 PM   #25
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Look at how we lost to OSU last year; our last two losses to MSU. Maybe it's not true we need everything stacked, but winning these big games these days feels like something Michigan does against all odds. Not that some of it wasn't self-inflicted, but you don't expect to bring in a darling of the coaching world and proceed to do your best to lose the turnover war at all costs, either.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 07:53 PM   #26
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Beat the #2 team at night in their white out? This would be the biggest win for Harbaugh by far at Michigan. And one of the biggest upsets for Michigan ever. Not impossible not probable.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 08:06 PM   #27
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Beat the #2 team at night in their white out? This would be the biggest win for Harbaugh by far at Michigan. And one of the biggest upsets for Michigan ever. Not impossible not probable.
It would be by far the biggest football win since I've been watching (2004). There really hasn't been much.
at ND in 2006 and vs Penn St in 2005 maybe...
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Old October 15th, 2017, 08:06 PM   #28
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Look at how we lost to OSU last year; our last two losses to MSU. Maybe it's not true we need everything stacked, but winning these big games these days feels like something Michigan does against all odds. Not that some of it wasn't self-inflicted, but you don't expect to bring in a darling of the coaching world and proceed to do your best to lose the turnover war at all costs, either.
This is the time for Harbaugh to earn his money. You guys should be thankful for that absurd line, Harbaugh should use that to the fullest extent that he can.

Being rated #2 doesn't mean much if your two biggest wins are versus Iowa and Northwestern. You've had the harder schedule and have the better defense, he will figure something out with the QB.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 08:21 PM   #29
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How did your analytics predict the MSU/UM? I thought the line on MSU/UM was absurd......
Let me make sure I understand. You thought the 10pt line that favored M was absurd, right? IOW you thought MSU was better than that. Do I have that right?

If I do have it right, and I think I do, in both cases, by game day, I posted a score of 12-10, M over MSU in shitty weather. I had basically gone with my gut and abandoned analytics. That's because they don't take into account the weather.

I also did not account for 5 Michigan turnovers in that 12-10 M win prediction. That comes in the category of the football gods hating on M not to mention that 2017 Purdue O'Korn didn't show up and instead, 2016 Indiana O'Korn did.

I also thought the monsoon was going to hold off until the late 4th. It happened mid 3rd and M kept passing while O'Korn kept turning it over with bad throws. Meanwhile, Dantonio played a conservative rope-a dope, a very good strategy, and waited for M to make mistakes - they did.

So, I had a lot of questions about the spread as did you. I had significant concerns pre-game about an M win by anything close to the spread. I noted that if 2016 Indiana O'Korn showed up and turned the ball over, MSU would win. He did and MSU won.

I think I had that game pretty well figured out before kick-off and was just hoping that O'Korn would be ok and M wouldn't hand the game to MSU with turn-overs. My hopes were not met.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 08:24 PM   #30
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This is the time for Harbaugh to earn his money.

Yes please. Honestly the only time so far I've REALLY felt like he has done that was the first MSU game. That felt like pulling out a win against a superior team, until they didn't. The rest of it I agree with. #2 team in the country isn't scary; Happy Valley at night isn't scary. I wish he would figure something out with the QB. He's supposed to be good at that. It's progress that we got through a game without a turnover. I see the appeal in calling this game for M; it's going to be loose going in for the first time all year and defense travels. Still, though. We're not going to find a passing game in a week.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 08:25 PM   #31
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I also did not account for 5 Michigan turnovers in that 12-10 M win prediction. That comes in the category of the football gods hating on M

No, it counts in the coach-was-stupid-in-this-case category. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. D'antonio knew better than to be flinging it around like that in the heart of the storm, and that's why he won. Football-gods kinds of plays are the O'Neill punt to end the game vs MSU, or the kind of shit that got Hoke a win against ND in the first night game.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 05:10 AM   #32
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We were lucky to be in that first MSU game to begin with. The football gods stole away a game that we had no business winning. We got outgained by over 150 yards and we didn't even force a turnover.

Last edited by Hannibal; October 16th, 2017 at 05:16 AM.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 05:14 AM   #33
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Michigan's defense hasn't faced an above average offense yet and they give up big plays, something that Penn State thrives on. It's a very good defense but it's a flawed one that PSU is tailor-made to expose. They won't ring up the scoreboard but they'll probably get over 12 possessions and they'll be able to break 30 against us. I'm thinking a 31-13 type affair. The Nittany Lions will cover easily.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 11:21 AM   #34
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Ever the Optimigos! Think about it... O'Korn. Happy Valley. White Out. Saquon Barkley. Revenge. Analytics be damned! The game ain't played on paper. The horror will be reminiscent of Michigan v.s. Notre Dame 2014: 31 - 0.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 11:34 AM   #35
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The Giants won in Denver last night with a great D performance. After the Giants lost 4 WRs to injury, people assumed a win for the Broncos ( around -13 in Vegas?). Denver had a bye week to think about the Giants.

Similar to Giants (Michigan) at Broncos (Penn St), a win can happen. Play great D, don’t turn the ball over, and run the ball hopefully with some success. As the Giants used up Engram, perhaps there is one reliable target in the passing game. Throw to Gentry.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 12:30 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlabamAlum View Post
I think M beats Penn State and shocks the world!
...and someday AA will have a cogent thought and shock these boards!
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Old October 16th, 2017, 06:43 PM   #37
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I have confidence M's defense can contain Penn State unless they are on the field just way way too many minutes (a distinct possibility with this offense).

Run run run the ball when you have possession. Shorten the game. Ball control, a few timely play action passes and this defense could just shock P-U nation.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 07:06 PM   #38
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Winning the turnover, big play battle will be needed...

Corners will be tested as will the safeties, DL/LBs will need to get pressure so they don't have time to throw the 15+ yard routes.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 07:10 PM   #39
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I think M's defense can make life pretty hard on PSU for 3.5 quarters, but without any help from the offense it's easy to imagine they'll wear out at the end. They can't win games by themselves.
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Old October 16th, 2017, 07:15 PM   #40
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Yup, the offenses very likely 3 and outs (and/or turnovers) are likely to result in:

Short fields, more possessions, and the defense being on the field way too long.. Those things make it far more difficult for the defense to do their job.
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