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Old October 15th, 2017, 08:53 AM   #1
Jeff Buchanan
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Angry Michigan @ PSU, 10/21/17, 7:30p Eastern, ABC/Stream Watch ESPN

This game is ABC's late national broadcast. College Game Day will be there and it's not because of Michigan who is not a contender; it's because talking heads think PSU is the #2 team into the top 5 behind Alabama for play-off berths and are looking for Franklin to prove it. My gut tells me he's going to beat M but get hammered by osu (talent will disagree with my osu pick).

The game immediately preceding the M/OSU broadcast is IU @ MSU. Low probability that this game goes into OT to delay the M/PSU game. I've noticed that ABC is now delaying kick-offs when their preceding broadcast goes over. They did not do that with M's OT contest at IU. Instead they put the GaTech/Miami game on ESPN News. If you're streaming content, as long as you're using WatchESPN, you'll get all the ESPN channels.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 09:01 AM   #2
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Michigan fans fleeing Happy Valley after the game...

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Old October 15th, 2017, 09:06 AM   #3
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Protect the ball on offense. Don’t give up any kick/punt returns. I like M’s chance to be in the game if it’s in Don Browns’s hands. Penn St has had a bye week to think about their embarrassing loss last season, however. I’m not liking that as far as motivation goes. The game plan is probably load up on stopping Barkley and make Penn St WRs beat you 1v1. Issue is Penn St loves those shots and seem to be really good at that. David Long, watch out.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 09:44 AM   #4
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I thought Hill, Kinnel and Long did a very good job v. Mack and Cobb and their back-end play has been consistently good and improving. Nice to see.

But McSorely is way better than Richard Lagow and Peyton Ramsey. There's probably some equivalence between PSU's and IU's overall passing game. Cobb is frigging good. Not to mention he is huge.

PSU receivers include DaeSean Hamilton, DeAndre Thompkins, and Saeed Blacknall. All have starting experience. RS sophomores Juwan Johnson and Irvin Charles both are solid. Brandon Polk was injured last season but is playing this season.

Comparing M's v. PSU's passing game v. IU, uhhh, let's not, OK, I will:

M: 10/20, 58, 2.9.
PSU: 15/32 352, 5.5.

The thing about McSorely is that he distributes the ball really well so, there is that. While IU has two good receivers that Ramsey can throw to, PSU has 8. This is not good.

M's primary job appears to be pressuring McSorley. He has excellent escapability and throws well on the run. That is going to be really hard...... and then there is Barkely.

I think M's defense is very good but this is a tough match-up. PSU is going to score points. M is going to have a hard time doing that. Weather does not look like a factor (61, light winds, 6% chance of rain). Straight up, I don't see any way that M wins this. Maybe, fortunately for M, the football gods and shitty referring helps M. Awful that we have to hope for that but it is what it is.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 10:34 AM   #5
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UM's defense will keep them in the game but will eventually wear out. PSU: 28 UM:6
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Old October 15th, 2017, 10:53 AM   #6
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Penn State's weakness is OL. M's weakness is not DL. I would expect all out assault on the LoS from Don Brown. Trust his corners and do not let Barkley get going. Penn State will probably catch them once or twice -- maybe get Barkley on, heh, McCray on wheel or something. But, by and large, it's going to tough sledding for PSU's offense. I think they'll get 20-24 points.

Penn State's defense, however, is nothing at all like what you saw last year in AA. I think it's really solid unit. And with M's offense, I think somewhat solid is more than enough to gum up the works.

Barring an outlier performance from Everything is J. OK! I see M hanging around for awhile before finally falling behind by 2 scores in the middle of the 3rd-ish and that will seem, and in fact be, insurmountable.

Another thing -- Penn State can really rush the QB. Everything is J. O.K.! will, I think, get tuck happy very early in the game -- and for very good reason. I mean, these guys are legit pass rushers.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 11:25 AM   #7
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Hey, good -- he's at his best when the pocket breaks and he reverts to lizard brain. But that otherwise sounds pretty reasonable. Our D will wear down in the 4th and they'll pull away.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 11:42 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iam416 View Post
Penn State's weakness is OL. .......however, their defense is nothing at all like what you saw last year in AA.
Here's some NCAA stats comparisons current as of this morning (6 games). These are raw stats and actually have little utility compared to other more meaningful comparisons that will come out later this week in mgoblog's Advanced Stats Match-Ups by Ecky Pting. The biggest issue with these raw stats is that they don't account for things like SOS, W/L records of opponents, etc. Take these for what they are worth:

Scoring Offense:

PSU #2, 39.7
M #9, 27.2

Scoring Defense:

PSU #1, 9.0
M #3, 14.7

Red Zone Offense (chances, %, TDs, FGs):

M #1 (17/18, 94.4, 6, 11/12)
PSU #6 (23/27, 85.2, 19, 4/7)

Red Zone Defense (chances, %, TDs, GFs):

PSU #1 (6/10, 60.0, 4, 2/4)
M #9 (10/12, 83.3, 7, 3/4)

Sacks By:

M #2, 3.3
PSU #3, 2.8

Sacks Against:

M #10, 2.7
PSU #10, 2.7

The comparison of Red Zone O and D is misleading at first glance. PSU scores more TDs and therefore points than M does even though it appears like M is more efficient in the red zone.

The sacks by and for is interesting. Taken on its own it seems to suggest PSU's OL isn't any worse than M's.

At this point, these comparisons, raw that they are, aren't predictive of outcomes. What they do is to give us a general picture of where M and PSU stand in the conference after two games but small sample size.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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Old October 15th, 2017, 11:48 AM   #9
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This game should be a tossup. I will buy big stock in Harbaugh! versus Franklin. I'm not sure Harbaugh! is a great frontrunning coach, in fact I think it is a weakness of his. But I think he is a lot more comfortable as an underdog, which he will be in this game. Look for a win by a TD.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 12:48 PM   #10
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PSU 29 M 3
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Old October 15th, 2017, 02:23 PM   #11
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Hot take! from Orion Sang

Michigan should see what it has with Peters

https://www.michigandaily.com/sectio...brandon-peters
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Old October 15th, 2017, 02:38 PM   #12
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Pedo State 31 HARBAUGH!! 9
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Old October 15th, 2017, 02:57 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WingsFan View Post
Hot take! from Orion Sang

Michigan should see what it has with Peters.....
Read the article. Well documented observations of O'Korn's missteps.

Here's the problem with putting Peters in: IMO, the opportunity was missed. Peters should have gotten some run at Purdue or after JOK shit the bed v. MSU v. IU. That may have been the plan for all we know but we can only speculate it didn't materialize because JOK looked decent in the first half v. IU and the coaches went to the mattresses with the run game in the second half. I will say his post game comments following the IU win, first time I've heard them, were revealing.

You put Peters in at QB now and the OL has to get a whole different sense of rhythm calls and attitude. They're locked in with JOK right now and playing better. Not sure putting a 3rd man up under center is a good idea given that reality. I'd speculate that this is driving the coaches's decision on starting QB more than anything else ..... unless

If, in fact, as I have speculated, JH is holding Peters out because he doesn't like him then that is what JH is going to have to live with if M implodes in HV with JOK at QB and we, as fans, are going to have to accept as our fucking fates that we have no control over.

OTH, if all my speculation about JH not liking Peters is BS, and it could be, and JH thinks Peters is an answer, maybe he'll get some snaps, like half of them, in practice this week and he'll beat out O'Korn. I'd love to see a head to head like that with the two of them alternating snaps with the ones and with the scout team.

We are thinking so in the blind about this that I'm hesitant to cast my lot with either of them. I think it's going to be O'Korn based on two things: He's started the last three games. He understands pressure, not that he has performed at all well with it. I have to think, all things being equal and JH is not a Peters hater, he and the staff know which QB is the lowest risk, highest reward starter. That's JOK. Vomits in mouth.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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Old October 15th, 2017, 04:33 PM   #14
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Betting line opened at 4:30p at Michigan +12. By 5:10p that line was down to +11.

At the start of the season, Advanced Stats/Connely's Win Probabilities had this game as a 70/30 proposition, i.e., PSU had a 70% chance of a win. This hasn't changed much. I don't think the line decreasing for M has any substantial meaning other than the books are trying to get bettors to take M. The number will probably continue to drop to the ridiculous. Pay no attention. Think only that M has a 30% chance of a win and all of that is going to come from the football gods and shitty BT referring that, in the end, favors M.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 05:22 PM   #15
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11 points is absurd
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Old October 15th, 2017, 05:34 PM   #16
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11 points is absurd
If you mean to say that it is absurdly low then I think that we all agree.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 05:43 PM   #17
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11 points is absurd
Not sure if you trying to be humoring, yes way to low.

Note; My MSU brother in law got on the phone just now while I was talking to my sister - First time he has talked about football since before the 2016 game. And it was as bad as any message board material.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 06:13 PM   #18
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No, it's not trying to humor anything, you guys should win the game. I don't get the defeatism. They might beat you, but it's a toss up in my mind. You guys always play well against Penn State. You have good defense and the better coach. Like I said before Harbaugh is probably better as an underdog.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 06:32 PM   #19
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you guys should win the game

lmao I have had a terrible weekend after last week - always seems to even out. Im sure you wouldn't bet real money on that, I would and will.
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Old October 15th, 2017, 06:47 PM   #20
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I don't bet real money on any sport.
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