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Old October 1st, 2017, 06:58 PM   #41
Jeff Buchanan
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Originally Posted by The Oracle View Post
Where have you seen 56? That'd be surprising.
http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/computer-picks
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
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Old October 1st, 2017, 07:54 PM   #42
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This is pretty good if you're so inclined (MSU offense every snap). Here's my hot takes:

If Lewerke sets up the pocket or has free run to the flat, he's good. I did't see any glaring mistakes from him at all.

The problem is that Iowa sucked on defense (and I assume offense) in this game. They did not present a credible pass rush (they did defend the run well) giving Lewerke too many opportunities to connect with either Felton Davis or a TE.

I might have detected a couple run blitzes but Iowa played a lot of 2-hi zone defense. MSU pretty much moved the ball well through the air with Iowa deciding to defend LJ Scott (that worked) but in the process seeded the passing game which Lewerke executed well. Classic Ferentz ball - you will not beat us running. Never mind Kirk seemed to forget there are two parts to a CFB offense.

There might have been two Dantonio designed tricekeration plays. I have no doubt whatsoever that he has several of those in the bag to use v. Don Brown that aren't on tape anywhere.

Iowa is not good.

MSU is better than I think any of us thought.

I would like to see MSU's defense every snap. I'll keep an eye out.

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Old October 1st, 2017, 08:05 PM   #43
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The signs are all there that MSU is good, but maybe one year away. Everyone is a little too young.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 08:23 PM   #44
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Old October 1st, 2017, 08:25 PM   #45
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M is younger...

56 is way too many for these offenses/defenses... M should keep Sparty in the teens with the caveat the offense gives the ball away. I don't see M scoring much more, 24-17...
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Old October 1st, 2017, 08:50 PM   #46
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I don't think Vegas will have it at 56.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 08:50 PM   #47
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cash in your gold if they do.
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 01:34 PM   #48
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 01:35 PM   #49
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Both teams are in the top ten in passing defense and passing efficiency defense. Not to mention they're both pretty good at run defense when inclined to stop it.

Don't expect a lot of offense here.
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 01:38 PM   #50
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First o/u I've seen is offshore, but 45.5. That sounds more like it.
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 01:48 PM   #51
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I just posted some thoughts (expanding on Brian's take in his UFR - Offense for the Purdue game) - in that Game Thread.

We're all looking for O'Korn, now identified as the starter v. MSU, to turn this offense around and make it hum.

IMO, that's not likely to happen because the run game is in big trouble if the Purdue video is an indication of that. Here's the thing. Harbaughffense is run heavy. If the opponent stops the run game JH's kind of offense is done. Purdue had some success doing that not attributable to loading the box but rather to exploiting M's very obvious mistakes in pre-snap line calls and post snap adjustments to the defensive front.

This is, in my extrapolated view, why for the last two years, we've seen a miserable run game and, for that reason, seen Speight get pummeled. I think that the reason the offense looked like it was off life-support when JOK took it over was that he can avoid sacks, is mobile and, at least in the Purdue game, had a knack for hitting receivers both on the run, designed or not, and stepping up, setting and firing that Speight does not have anymore. The run game wasn't any better (initially anyway) and the OL remained as porous as ever in pass-pro.

So, I'm now officially concerned about any team that M faces and, since MSU is next, Sparty. Like Purdue, they will play a hyper-aggressive defense because M can't block twists, stunts and slants. The net result is that JOK will be under constant pressure and he'll have no run game to make things easier for him. First start for JOK in a high pressure rivalry game, televised nationally in Prime Time, constantly pressured? I'd be worried about that, about turnovers and about the yips if I were an M fan. We've seen that before from O'Korn.

Now, if MSU does that, it's a high risk/high reward type of thing. But, I'm pretty sure we'll see mark Dantonio pull out all the stops on defense in Narduzzi fashion..... and why not? M rarely made Purdue pay for what they were doing. That, IMO, is partly because the play design typical in Harbaughffense is going to look like a steaming pile of shit when the blocking required to make it work, doesn't work.

I offer the mgoblog Offense - UFR as exhibit one.

The Sparty game could be a low scoring, field position battle where M's D does a good job holding Lewerke and AJ Scott in check but M's offense can't score any points. Let's try on M 12- MSU 10 and see how that feels, shall we? Could be ugly.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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Old October 2nd, 2017, 02:01 PM   #52
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Actually...I reverse my pick...

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Old October 2nd, 2017, 06:48 PM   #53
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Harbaugh was in typical Harbaugh form today at his regular Monday presser. It was short, maybe 8-10m. Obviously pre-occupied and not in any mood to answer stupid questions .....

Is there such a thing as bringing too much emotion into a football game, because this is one where there’s a lot of emotion on both sides.


[long pause]

“Do I seem over-emotional to you?”

We're not going to get shit out of the submarine but a guessing man knows things may not be going smoothly. Why is that?

Well, he's not reading Brian's pretty critical UFR Offense - Purdue but Harbaugh is seeing the same thing we can see as described by the keen eye of the author of these things.

Video doesn't lie and when you see unblocked free rushers, horrendously bungled blocking on plays that are well designed and should break big except for a couple missed assignments that happen with disconcerting regularity, you can't be a happy camper.

What to do?

I'm seeing plenty from reading around today and I'm 99% certain JH isn't reading around but has his own ideas of what needs to be done. I'm going to hazard a guess of what's inside Harbaugh's head and what he might say in a coaches only meeting:

(1) In my offense, I want to run the ball. Like Woody once said and Bo repeated often, "When you throw the ball, three things can happen and two of them are bad." You know the rest.

Jim LIKES to run maybe (or probably) because (1) He wants to control the game and wear opponents down, (2) He lacks confidence in the passing game. No shit ..... lots of reasons for that.

(2) I wonder if we're running too much Defenses are just playing very aggressively and taking it to us. We seem to be unable to back them off with our trademark long ball .....

These are pretty startling numbers: When M is leading by less than a score, either tied or trailing, it continues to run on 60% of downs. Total run yards drops by 35% when ahead by 14 and YPC drops from 6.1 to 3.5. This explains why fans don't see the knife driven home like fans' would like to see. M doesn't get separation but instead sits on two score leads. The sad part is that when passing, whether behind or ahead, YPA is consistently in the 7.0 to 10.0 range. In a statistically comparative sense, this isn't bad.

Those numbers are truth tellers about play-calling.

(3) Maybe we should pass more

Yes, Jim, "we" should. John moved the ball really well when M used the plays it either appeared that coaches had planned for him or called because he was executing cripsly and decisively and making good throws. For the first time in four games M's offense looked sort of like we expected it to look after Pep Hamilton arrived. M upped the distribution after Wilton went down to 50% passing, up from 40% ..... and had a similar YPA (7-10y) with JOK throwing it. M moved the chains, M moved the ball down the field and, in the redzone, M scored points.

(4)Let's throw more and build a lead then run. Right?

OK, what to do then:

M's offensive strengths are unquestionably TEs, FB/H-Backs, RBs as runners. Weaknesses are OL, RBs in pass-pro, WRs - talented but not yet comprehending Harbauffense and its complex route trees.

So, use more motion. Lots of it. Move the TEs and H-Backs around (motioning them from the line to the slot or even out to trips). Run the shot-gun out of various formations (two backs and one), then motion the RBs and FB. For the WRs, get them into space on slants, screens, rubs, and drags. Let them use the skills they have in spades producing YAC.

M doesn't have to run 80 plays with tempo. It just needs to do it enough (> 40% passing plays that are successful passing plays) and then, you back the defense out of their aggressiveness.

Jim knows the NFL. Teams there use multiple TEs out of the shotgun and misdirection with fly sweeps, shovel passes, screens, and draws. This kind of stuff makes a defense think about blitzing all the time. If the majority of what the coaches call is run based, defenses are going to employ aggressive approaches intended to exploit M's OL's consistent and obvious inability to handle slants, twists and stunts. Like fans have repeatedly seen, this allows the creation of space for free rushers ..... sacks ensue. QB's die.

Finally, you know what Jim, you've got a QB that can move like Alex Smith. Remember him?
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; October 2nd, 2017 at 06:52 PM.
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 08:57 PM   #54
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Alex Smith is running on TV now!

Emergence of McKeon and Gentry as pass catchers is promising. Pretty good debut also for Schoenle.
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 09:33 PM   #55
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Old October 2nd, 2017, 09:35 PM   #56
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Old October 3rd, 2017, 12:43 AM   #57
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Is there such a thing as bringing too much emotion into a football game, because this is one where there’s a lot of emotion on both sides.

[long pause]

“Do I seem over-emotional to you?”
The Harbaugh deadpanned
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Old October 3rd, 2017, 12:46 AM   #58
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Michigan must admit Michigan State is its biggest football rival

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/un...lry/724971001/
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Old October 3rd, 2017, 08:22 PM   #59
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Michigan 31 - Michigan State 0
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Old October 3rd, 2017, 08:28 PM   #60
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1985 I believe??
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