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Old September 25th, 2017, 09:32 PM   #21
Jeff Buchanan
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28-10 M? That's doable and beats the spread. It's also a score consistent with how M has been playing overall.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
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Old September 26th, 2017, 08:00 AM   #22
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23-17 is my prediction. I think that we'll win but it will be another ass-puckering ugly affair.

It's time to fully break out Chris Evans for this one.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 09:33 AM   #23
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I think MSU is much better than Buchanan gives them credit for, but they will have to take care of the ball unlike that turnover disaster against ND.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 09:52 AM   #24
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I think MSU is much better than Buchanan gives them credit for, but they will have to take care of the ball unlike that turnover disaster against ND.
Well, I haven't really given a detailed assessment of MSU. At this point I don't know enough to do so. Generally and as I said up-thread, I think both M and MSU have exploitable weakness. MSU just has more of them than M does.

I also think the spread is supportable by S&P+, for now. By game time, I bet it will be down around 13.5, maybe as low as 9.5 as the books play their games.

BTW, I think Mark Dantonio is a great CFB coach. If you want a coach who is going to be able to get the most out of a middling appearing team, against Michigan, in Ann Arbor, it's going to be him.

Just hope Dantonio doesn't do the chair throwing thing Brohm did for his boys in the locker room before Purdue faced M. That was not a good move; cost him .... he did a good job of eating humble pie in his post game though. Now, he has to deal with dirty opponent locker rooms in Ross-Ade. Heh.

Danotnio would NEVER eat humble pie after a loss and I suspect he's snickering over Harbaugh's Purdue locker room complaints he so vocally aired on Monday.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 09:55 AM   #25
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I can guarantee you that you won't witness some chair throwing nonsense.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 10:08 AM   #26
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Dantonio only throws his chairs in private.
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Old September 26th, 2017, 01:59 PM   #27
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Sets them on fire first.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 07:58 AM   #28
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While Iowa's offense is not explosive at all, Sparty held them to just over 200y total offense. The Sparty D is probably pretty good and will look that way v. M's OL.

Lewerke is dangerous when he's not kept in the pocket ...... too bad that so far, MSU's offense is Lewerke to Felton Davis and Lewerke scambling for first downs. Lewerke led the Spartan's in rushing (42y). LJ Scott was held to 28y.

MSU's F+ (FEI) numbers look like this #37 at 21.8%, meaning that when MSU has the ball, they score 22% of the time. M's F+ is #9 at 49.1%

It appears that if you take Davis out of the game by making sure he's covered and contain Lewerke when he scrambles, M's D can keep MSU under 13. I'll give 4 points to Dantonio factor: (1) being extremely well prepared for Don Brown in Sparty's Super Bowl, (2) M being on the short end of bad calls and lucky bounces. So, 17 points.

The efficiency of M's offense will depend on who starts at QB and if it's not Speight, whether JOK's performance v. Purdue was an anomaly. Speight has been terrible. Frankly, I don't see him returning to good Speight. However, it's possible that the coaches put him in a position with play calls not well suited for how the offense was actually performing.

I don't think any of us disagree that O'Korn, the 2017 Purdue version of him, is a much better fit in Harbaughffense as it's turning out to be after 4 games: Mediocre to poor run game, porous OL hanging QBs out to dry, limited route running capacity/poor separation from the WRs, Grant Perry +3 and the combo of Gentry, McKeon and Wheatly - all of these guys running short to intermediate crossing routes and hooking up with JOK's crisp and decisive throws in the pocket and off the scramble.

Based on what we've seen so far from the Don Brown D staring Devon Bush and in supporting rolls the trio of Hurst, Winovich and taking all the double teams and getting none of the stats, Rashan Gary, MSU is going to have trouble stringing long drives together like Dantonio likes to do, let alone being efficient in the red zone (MSU ranks 119th in that department!).

As usual, in rivalry games like this, teams cannot afford ST derfs that turn into points for the opponent. I've not seen anything that suggests either M or MSU prone to these kinds of mistakes. M has Nordin, Robbins and Fouge: slight advantage to M if the game comes down to a field position battle and/or FGs.

Keys to an M win: Don't turn the ball over.

Key match-ups: M's DBs v. Felton Davis. Lewerke v. the edge.

If JOK starts and plays like he did at Purdue: M 31 - MSU 17

If Speight starts and plays like he has to date: M24 - MSU 17 (and the offense will only score 14 points; 7 from the D, 3 from FGs).

The spread has been as high as -21 for M; nothing current is available right now. S&P+ comparisons through week 4 shows M winning by 15.2 and 86.6% win probability
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Old October 1st, 2017, 08:45 AM   #29
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M 23, MSU 13
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Old October 1st, 2017, 09:05 AM   #30
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By the way, Congratulations to Michigan State on reaching three wins again this season.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 09:23 AM   #31
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On the starting QB thing .........

There was some speculation over comments made by someone who I can't remember and in an mgoblog post that I can't find that imply JOK is going to start v. MSU. Anyway, they were comments made about how the staff was working to get the plays JOK does well into practice or some such verbiage.

The thought was that if this is accurate then Speight isn't going to be healed, O'Korn is going to get all the practice reps and is therefore going to start v. MSU.

Since there will be endless speculation about this over the next 6d, I thought I just add mine.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 09:29 AM   #32
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I haven't heard 1 person anywhere that thinks Speight will play this week. Is that really a huge point of speculation over there?
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Old October 1st, 2017, 09:40 AM   #33
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I haven't heard 1 person anywhere that thinks Speight will play this week. Is that really a huge point of speculation over there?
I'm seeing some on mgoboards from posters that are probably living in their parents's basements but not from anyone that I will take the time to consider what they are saying.

My view is that there is 99% chance that O'Korn will start.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 09:51 AM   #34
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This is an observant post made by a reliable poster made after the MSU win over Iowa. It's pretty accurate with regards to Ferentz's style.

The thing that strikes me is that we are seeing some of this same stuff out of Harbaugh esp. as it pertains to running Isaac, Evans, et. al, into the brick walls that every defense M has faced builds. Sets also appear to predict the play-call more than they should although we have seen some counters and constraints ...... but those didn't appear to work well until O'Korn went under center.

I think a good case can be made that the coaching staff didn't optimize the offense based on observable (from a fan perspective at least) strengths and weakness and instead used the worn out mantra of we will out execute you ..... definitely apples to Ferentz and a Carr weakness to the end.

Speight may not have the quickest feet or release, the most accurate throws or the ability to make the right check/downs and reads but, my sense is that he could have replicated the game plan success that the coaches sort of invented on the fly for O'Korn v. Purdue. JMO.

Iowa isn't great, nor are they bad. They're just Iowa- 3-0 or 2-1 out of conference and 5-4 or 6-3 in conference for a competent but not scary 8-4 team. They will play out of their minds once or twice a season at home at night, and lay one or two eggs on the road. Every 4-5 years the schedule/roster stars will align and they'll go 11-1.

Kirk Ferentz just strikes me as a sound but incredibly stubborn coach. Iowa is sitting in cover 2 with LBs dropping in shallow zones and rushing 4- MSU knows they will do this from the start and gets two fairly easy early TDs. Iowa also set 3-4 possessions on fire starting from inside their 10 and playing very conservatively.

I just don't get why teams play to the MSU D's strength- you can't just run inside/outside zone with 8 guys in the box and a 9th frequently moving down late. MSU showed a cover 1 or cover 0 multiple times and Iowa didn't audible into any slants or posts to take advantage. You have to throw the ball against MSU - I would think everyone knows this by now.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 12:20 PM   #35
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ESPN's Team Efficiency Rankings have been published. You can go to the site to see the methodology; it's nothing more than a different way to compute a team's relative competitiveness.

In the Top 25, there are 5 BT teams (M is 22, overall rating of 73.8 ), 3 B12, 2 SEC, 1 PAC12, 1 ACC, UCF and ND.

MSU is #53 with an overall rating of 57.5.

Wisky, PSU and osu are all ranked above M.

If you're using this methodology to predict a spread for the M/MSU game, M would be favored by the difference between the two overall ratings or 16.3 Points. The betting line will show up later this afternoon.

Needless to say, M is, as of now, the dog v. PSU, Wisconsin and osu by this methodology.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 03:41 PM   #36
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Line is -13 Sparty has covered the spread in last nine games against Michigan.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 03:51 PM   #37
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Line is -13 Sparty has covered the spread in last nine games against Michigan.
Down from 21 when a line first appeared and was reported by the Freep.

It's a solid line. In my best case M with O'Korn wins 31-17 (14 points). In my worst case with Speight, M wins 24-17. So, yeah, M wins by between one and two scores.

I guess I should add another case since it's about 99% sure JOK will start: His Purdue performance is an outlier; O'Korn is Indiana O'Korn, turns the ball over X2 and MSU wins it 27 -24.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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Old October 1st, 2017, 03:54 PM   #38
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I think it will be a lower scoring game than that.

Whats the over/under? I'd probably bet on the under.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 04:11 PM   #39
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....Whats the over/under? I'd probably bet on the under.
Around 56. Predicted score: 33.7 - 22-5.

Here's one for you, NW is only a 14 point dog at Happy Valley. That's a really weird spread. The books can't really be saying fNW is just a 1 point worse dog in Happy Valley than MSU is @ M.

All other things being equal, and they're not, fNW's O and D are about the same as M's in terms of chalking up a win next weekend.
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Old October 1st, 2017, 05:53 PM   #40
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Where have you seen 56? That'd be surprising.
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