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Old September 19th, 2017, 11:43 AM   #21
THE_WIZARD_
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Purdue 24 Mich 21
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Old September 19th, 2017, 12:19 PM   #22
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..... possible.

STFU.
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Old September 19th, 2017, 01:00 PM   #23
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no
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Old September 19th, 2017, 01:30 PM   #24
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I am feeling inappropriately optimistic about this game. I think that it is a combination of:

1. Deep down, I have a feeling that Michigan has a higher gear that they are going to show in this game that has been missing the past couple of weeks. They showed it against Florida.

2. It looks like people are overreacting to Purdue not sucking. Similar maybe to the irrational exuberance over RichRod's back-to-back 4-0 starts. There's likely to be no more than a tiny handful of one-on-one matchups on the field that don't favor Michigan. Our defense has turned the LOS into a bloodbath in all three games so far so there is no reason to expect that to change this weekend. This team likely will look dominant on defense until they face some great athletes on an opposing offense (Penn State). Purdue undoubtedly has holes in their defense too. At the end of the day we're still talking about guys who came in with rock bottom recruiting classes and they are only in week 4 of a new system and a new head coach.

I'll go with my gut for this one. 34-17 final. We'll cover. It won't necessarily be nonstop fun but when the game ends there will be no doubt about who was better.
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Old September 19th, 2017, 03:26 PM   #25
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Purdue has looked much better under the new coaching regime. At home and pumped up. Michigan has been living on the edge. Very few offensive TDs. Leading receiver out. Untested CBs.

Purdue 17 Michigan 13
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Old September 19th, 2017, 04:41 PM   #26
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Man, the predictions on this one are all over the place. Don't think I've seen that much variance.

The issue for me is M's first conference road game. Was the UF win an outlier against a good team at a sort of away venue or is UF just hot garbage? I'm trending to the later. We've yet to see M under JH on the road, dominate a home team other than Rutgers.

There are so many objective based issues with M's offense that I have a hard time seeing a score > 27 and I'm counting 7+ for the defense and or ST's. That's, at best, 20 points for the O.

If Hanni is right, and Drevno unleashes a bunch of slants, drags and TE/RB wheel routes that work, fabulous. I have no idea if that's going to happen. Based on comments by Brown on how he started preparing for AF during spring camp, I'd say, JH has been thinking bout Purdue, on the road. So, I'll give a slight nod to an efficient offense that might, just might score > 30. 5TDs two rushing and three passing and 35 points would be a nice game ......keep Nordin on the sidelines for FGs.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 09:01 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
I am feeling ... optimistic about this game....
I'll go with my gut for this one. 34-17 final. We'll cover....

Who are you and what have you done with Hannibal?
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Old September 20th, 2017, 09:08 AM   #28
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Old September 20th, 2017, 09:21 AM   #29
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I think we aren't suddenly going to take a leap forward, esp without Black, but Purdue showing signs of life does not mean Purdue is now good. And because Speight has sucked on the road and been good at home in the past doesn't mean he'll play worse this Saturday than he has the previous two, becuase he's added sucking at home to his repetoire. There's not much downside left to explore there. I don't know about covering, but I'm not expecting a loss.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 09:33 AM   #30
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Unless Purdue can get pressure on Speight, I'm not worried about this game. M's defensive backs will be tested more than they've all season; hopefully M's front seven will get plenty of pressure to help the DB's in coverage.

M 34-17.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 05:53 PM   #31
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I do not think Purdue has the pass rushers that will bother Speight/ the M o-line. Only one sack this season and that was by a converted LB to DE, Danny Ezechukwu.
Purdue does have some decent DTs (Jones and Lorenzo Neal), but they are more of run stuffers. Kugler, Bredeson, and Onwenu vs the Purdue DTs should be a fun matchup when it comes to the run game.

Pass rush? ... If Uluzio has a rough day, that would be disappointing given the edge rushers Purdue has.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 06:15 PM   #32
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Special teams and defense will score 14 points outright and be responsible for more. Not worried about a loss but style points could be an issue.
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Old September 20th, 2017, 06:22 PM   #33
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No such issue as there's no such thing.
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Old September 21st, 2017, 10:36 AM   #34
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Cody has cooled me some on Purdue, but I'll still take them against the spread of 9.5 points. Michigan offensive sputters should keep it close.
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 08:15 AM   #35
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Upset alert ..... Purdue fans are talking upset, some of them are convinced it will happen.

Here's why it won't.

M's run game is rounding into form. If you read the Airforce UFR, several plays we're one missed block or cut away from TDs. ONE. The trend is on a positive slope.

Speight will trend towards the norm. He's been bad, no question. Not seeing open receivers. I doubt that continues. As well, he's not been getting a lot of support from his receivers. He's also been under a lot of effective pressure. Purdue will try but they don't have the horsepower. Wilton should have a bit more time to settle in.

Purdue can keep this close if they take care of the ball and Speight underperforms. But in the end, M's talent, D, ST and run game will win it.
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 08:37 AM   #36
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Air Force's hyper aggressive scheme forced us to have seven or eight guys quickly identify and execute their assignments on almost every play. We had no counter for it. The UFR showed a ton of RPS minus plays and also minuses for missed assignments, but IMHO a lot of those individual player minuses are closely tied to scheme. Simply counting on your guys to execute perfectly is a very Debord/Hoke-ian thing to do. This means putting your guys in a position to fail while giving the defense a large margin for error. A good scheme turns the tables and, instead, puts the defense in a position where they have to execute perfectly to shut down a play. And if they don't, you burn them. The long TD scored by Air Force is a perfect example of this. There was almost no margin for error on that play.

As far as I can tell, Purdue doesn't run that same type of scheme, so we should have more success. I'm also expecting a bounceback to come eventually for Speight. He was money against bad defenses last year.

Last edited by Hannibal; September 22nd, 2017 at 08:39 AM.
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 08:53 AM   #37
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........ "no counter for it....."

I agree with this. Brian in his UFR agrees too. His question was, if AF is going to put 9 guys in the box, Ss 7y from the LOS, the offense facing that has to make the defense pay for that, did it? Not really.

I think the answer to that gets bank to practice reps. JH wanted to run the ball; that's what got repped. That's what gets called. I also agree that's a very Hoke/ Debordian thing to do. Brian rembarks on this criticism, "are you going to question JH's record on this sort of thing?" Well, I think that response to that particular criticism of M is very mgoblogian.

I think the criticism is appropriate. My sense, hope may be a better word, is that we're going to see a few new things v Purdue.
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 08:53 AM   #38
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Blough threw 25 picks last season and from what I saw their OL isn't average for the B1G; Hurst, Gary, Winovich, Bush will regularly be greeting Blough and forcing him to throw before he wants to. M's defense is going to get some sacks, INT's, and probably TFL's too...

Red zone issues aren't the result of talent but bad luck, inexperience, and lack of focus. And play calling... Those should start working in our favor more and more plus the Boilermakers don't have the ability to rattle Speight, blitz and pressure him to make mistakes. Speight will have time to throw and look like he did much of last season.
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 09:30 AM   #39
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Agree ....... another good reason why M will win.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
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Old September 22nd, 2017, 09:40 AM   #40
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........ "no counter for it....."

I agree with this. Brian in his UFR agrees too.
Sorta -- he also dinged individual players very heavily for not adjusting their assignments to pick up Air Force's aggressive attackers. I agree that at least a half dozen times we were one little mistake from either breaking a big play, punching the ball into the end zone, or sustaining a drive. But when the defense gives you little to no tolerance for error, those things eventually happen. New starters makes it harder but this is 2017 college football -- you are always going to have some new starters here and there. You've got to build your offensive strategy around that. It looks like there is a lot of pressure on the blockers to not only quickly identify what is going on in front of them, but to execute as a team. It can't be easy to learn and execute. For a few years the inability of the OL to do this consistently has been blamed on individuals (e.g. Kalis or Poggi) but the trend is starting to pile up.

But at any rate, I don't think that it will cost us this weekend. If I am wrong, it will be because of turnovers and/or penalties.

Last edited by Hannibal; September 22nd, 2017 at 09:47 AM.
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