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Old September 17th, 2017, 07:35 AM   #1
Jeff Buchanan
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Michigan @ Purdue, Saturday, 9/23, 4p Eastern, FOX/Stream FSGo

With M's/Sp8's road presence in 2016 somewhat concerning and Purdue doing well in 2017, this game appears to be a lot more problematic that we might have thought it would be in the pre-season.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 11:01 AM   #2
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M will win, but at least it can be close for a while. M wins 33 - 24.

My Purdue notes:
- West Lafayette will be an enjoyable environment on Friday evening/ Saturday for anyone that goes. Breakfast Club, dress up in a halloween costume. Homecoming too.
- With the help of M fans, is it possible we see a sold out crowd in Ross Ade for the first time in a while... nobody gets back on a bandwagon faster than fans in Indiana. and its Homecoming, again.
- You'll get to learn about the Purdue facility renovations.
- David Blough can be brilliant at times. With M's weakness being the CBs(?), perhaps this is something Purdue can exploit. Too bad Purdue doesn't have good WRs.
- While David Blough will be the starter, you might see Elijah Sindelar for a couple series. Hope not... I'm a Blough fan. While Sindelar has a better arm, he is a statue in the pocket.
- Purdue's D plays hard, despite it's disadvantages through talent. Strength is LB crew with Bentley and Bailey.
- Purdue's recruiting is up there with Kansas for worst among Power 5 for the last five years. Basically their average rating for their recruits is between 81-82 on 247. Terrible.
- Jeff Brohm is competent, maybe good-great. Purdue's last two head coaches, Danny Hope and Darrell Hazell, were awful .
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Old September 17th, 2017, 12:57 PM   #3
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35-13 UM
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Old September 17th, 2017, 02:58 PM   #4
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No way. If JH gets a two score lead and the D does what they do, he and sp8 will turtle. Fine with me. Accept tressel ball.

27 - 16.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 03:42 PM   #5
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Cody, I understand that the route into the stadium from I-65 (if coming from the south) is under construction and can be difficult. I am coming up I-65 from the south going north. . Can you give me directions to the stadium and the north lots where I can tailgate?
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Old September 17th, 2017, 04:49 PM   #6
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-10 No way M covers - Unless M's qb can 'calm down'.

Cody what are the chances M loses this game outright?
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Old September 17th, 2017, 05:13 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UMStan White View Post
Cody, I understand that the route into the stadium from I-65 (if coming from the south) is under construction and can be difficult. I am coming up I-65 from the south going north. . Can you give me directions to the stadium and the north lots where I can tailgate?
Here are some good reads for parking and directions:
http://www.purduesports.com/ot/pur-p...struction.html
https://www.hammerandrails.com/footb...game-day-guide
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...rking_maps.pdf

Basically: "Arrivals from the south via Interstate 65 should utilize either SR 38 West at exit 168 or SR 26 West at exit 172. SR 38 will turn into Main Street and will intersect with SR 26 at which point traffic should continue westbound into West Lafayette on SR 26. "
Whenever my parents tailgated, they would park in the intramural fields Southwest of the stadium. $10-$20
You might need a pass or something to park right next to the stadium on the North side, but that is where the best tailgating is. Again, not sure if you need a pass or not to park there.
When I visit, I just park at my fraternity.

Forgot to mention, I think M will have a big advantage with their D-line vs Purdue's O-line. Gary and Winovich will eat up the Purdue OTs.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 05:18 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
No way. If JH gets a two score lead and the D does what they do, he and sp8 will turtle. Fine with me. Accept tressel ball.
I see the D/ST scoring once and setting up a short field for another score.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 06:33 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodean View Post
I see the D/ST scoring once and setting up a short field for another score.

I included that in my 27 point score prediction. The offense might get 13 on its own (1 TD and two FGs), ST and the D will be responsible for the other 14.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 06:34 PM   #10
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Michigan @ Purdue, Saturday, 9/23, 4p Eastern, FOX/Stream FSGo

The Purdue D will be an order of magnitude easier to score on than Florida or Air Force was




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Old September 17th, 2017, 07:29 PM   #11
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The Purdue D will be an order of magnitude easier to score on than Florida or Air Force was....
Based on what?

AF is the toughest defense M has played so far. NCAA rankings after 9/16/17 games:

Total D: AF #9, Cincy #49, Purdue #68, FL #100

Third Down Conversions - Defense: Cinci #13, AF #26, Purdue #50, FL #52

These numbers are going to be skewed one way or the other for lack of data points/sample size but the present data do not support your assertion.

Couple that with M's shitty road performances with Harbaugh and Speight in 2016 (is this going to be better in 2017 and why) and M's Red Zone Offense: 10 trips, 1 TD, 8 FGs ....... and you're not looking at the kind of score you initially posted. What your looking at in your two posts is fanciful, unjustified optimism.

I'll be glad to tip my hat your way if M blows out Purdue and wins easily but, IMO, there is not a single piece of subjective data that supports that.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 07:36 PM   #12
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Eye test.

Look at the opponents, as you say especially early the data is skewed.

Florida has a tough D, AF is quality too.

Purdue has been better than they were in years past but against Missouri and Ohio. and Louisville ain't all that as we saw last night.

They also have 2 starters on defense that were injured yesterday.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 07:49 PM   #13
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But still, yeah, the UM offense has to perform much better, especially in the Red Zone.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 07:51 PM   #14
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Purdue's defense is an untalented group of mostly seniors that play hard/ well coached.
Louisville moved down this defense with no problem, but was hurt by turnovers.
Ohio? Probably an average offense that did an average job.
Missou, while their defense is a dumpster fire, their offense isn't bad. Purdue holding them to 3 at Missou is an impressive job.

Probably closer to the Cincinnati defense if we need a comparison.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 07:57 PM   #15
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You have to include this is a road game, Michigan (especially Speight) doesn't play well on the road.
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Old September 17th, 2017, 08:21 PM   #16
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Offenses execution issues need to be corrected from learning from their mistakes. I'd argue play calling is as much at fault for red zone success, I don't see any urgency to get in the end zone. Harbaugh's far too satisfied to settle for a FG..

The off-season talk of spreading defenses with 3-4 WR's was BS, Speight needs more time to throw than the typical QB and he's not getting that time. Only time were letting him throw is in passing situations (2nd/3rd & long) so he's being blitzed on nearly every pass attempt...

Purdue has impressed me thus far and think they could do well in the B1G West (IMO they are a bowl team) yet I like how M matches up with them and we should be able to make them one dimensional. First good test of a spread passing offense (Cincy's talent level was too low to count), M's DL should't give Blough much time to throw and make him look a lot worse than he has. This game will show us how good/bad our young secondary is in coverage.

31-16 M...
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Old September 17th, 2017, 11:08 PM   #17
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Spread is only 9.5 though that'll change a bit...

Purdue has shown little ability to get to the quarterback, Speight usually has his way when he has time to throw. Most all of his struggles are against the blitz or when his OL just whiffs in pass protection.
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Old September 18th, 2017, 06:41 AM   #18
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Thanks Cody!
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Old September 18th, 2017, 03:29 PM   #19
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They'll sell out to stop the run...surprise! If Speight can get his act together, they'll roll. If not, it'll be another long stressful day.
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Old September 19th, 2017, 11:29 AM   #20
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have been hoping for a blowout game so we can see what Kareem Walker has in the tank
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