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Old August 24th, 2017, 03:01 PM   #41
AlabamAlum
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1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER
2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER
3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER
4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER
5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 UNDER
6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER
7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 UNDER
8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards UNDER
11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 OVER
12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER
13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER
14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER
15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 OVER
16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER
17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 OVER
18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER
19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 UNDER
20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

466
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Old August 24th, 2017, 10:54 PM   #42
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IMO, passing game is much more important than running game. So, in addition to Frey, the Pep Hamilton hire is new and important this year. Of course, the main factor on the positive side is named PeoplesJones-Black-Martin-Collins. Got to take advantage of that.
Dan, no doubt, some great receivers but .........

The passing game is high variance. Besides as closely as we can tell JH is building a power offense designed to run and possess the ball. The article I linked to in the Team 138 Thread counters the recently held view that big (explosive) plays are key to wins; therefore take big risks, a lot of them, to get more explosive plays.

He walks that back a bit and says, "If big plays can happen on any down at any rate, the key to creating explosive plays is an efficient offense. This means a high success rate per play (go to Connelly's Football Study Hall web site to understand this ....... www.footballstudyhall.com).

I think it's pretty obvious with Speight at QB, an OC's willingness to run a whole lot of risky, high variance plays in hopes of getting the big one is not a great choice. M will be better off running the ball well (high success rate - efficient offense; efficiency = more wins) creating those long drives that put the ball in the endzone.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 06:48 AM   #43
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1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER

2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER

3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER

4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER

5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 UNDER

6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER

7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER

8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards UNDER

11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER

12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 UNDER

13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER

14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER

15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 UNDER

16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER

17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER

18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 UNDER

19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 UNDER

20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

TIE-BREAKER: Total Points Scored for the Whole Season? 391
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Old August 25th, 2017, 07:17 AM   #44
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I think that I may have said this elsewhere, but...

The running game was king for the first 80 or so years of football, basically through the Bo and Woody eras. Then the elite pro style passers started showing up, and QBs' throwing abilities took over the game. That lasted for about 20 years. This included the Moeller and the peak Carr years, which contained the greatest passing QB play that the program has ever seen (Brady, Henson, Grbac, senior year Griese, etc).

In the early oughts, the return of running QBs to the game and the proliferation of spread offenses made the running game king again, and that's where we are today. IMHO this isn't as much about doing something new as it is about rediscovering principles that had been largely forgotten or lost. I think that the pro style QB era in college football -- the era dominated by the Vinny Testaverdes, Peyton Mannnings, and Danny Weurffels -- might be looked back on as a historical anomaly someday.

Last edited by Hannibal; August 25th, 2017 at 11:59 AM.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 09:44 AM   #45
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By request, I am bringing a Michigan Football version of a contest I've been running in the Pistons Forum for the last several years.

To have your entry count, make your predictions by kickoff of the Michigan vs. Florida game. You get 10 points for every correct answer. There may be a prize at the end of this. We'll see. At the very least, you get bragging rights.

Since this is Year 1, I'm going to start off fairly simple and see how that works out. There will be 20 questions. Copy and paste the questions below and fill in your prediction. Answer with an OVER or UNDER. Any question that doesn't name a player or coach is a question about The Team, The Team, The Team. Not about opponents.

Let's go! (blue)

1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER

2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER

3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 OVER

4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 OVER

5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 OVER

6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER Just barely.

7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER

8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 OVER

10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards OVER Nordin will boom.

11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER

12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER

13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER More big play TD's this year.

14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER More passing this year.

15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 UNDER

16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER Lots of PT, though.

17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER Redshirt.

18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER

19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER Fuck'em.

20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 OVER Total optimist pick.


TIE-BREAKER: Total Points Scored for the Whole Season?
15 x 34 = 510. Once again, optimist! GO BLUE!
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Old August 25th, 2017, 10:05 AM   #46
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SLF, that's 40pts per game average!

If we've got Harbaughffense pegged, he's going to want 70+ plays in 60m of game clock. He'll have a 50/50 pass/run split, maybe 55/45 depending on what the defenses are giving or taking away. But, I'm thinking he's going to want as many 12-14 play drives as he can get rather than short, quick scoring drives.

That means this is likely going to be a 27-34 ppg offense. Lower v. FL, Wisky, PSU and osu. Higher v. Rutgers et. al. No way this is 40+ ppg offense.
You might be right, but they scored 524 last year.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 03:50 PM   #47
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You might be right, but they scored 524 last year.
I really don't think there is just one way to run a CFB offense and the best coaches run one that meets the skill sets of the players within it. No argument about the value of a running QB. I think ufm's offense is ideal for the B10 (IZ, OZ, Power) and he's got the perfect QB (his only limitation is his downfield passing) to run it.

Looking at Speight, he has a lot of the same qualities that JH had with Andrew Luck in his last two years at Stanford. Luck was clearly more skilled in the passing game and, when JH dialed them up, high variance, explosive, big plays had a pretty good probability of succeeding with him chucking it deep down field. Speight just isn't that reliable ...... to date. Who knows. Maybe the QB whisperer has done his thing.

One source (TTB) named Speight as the starter today. O'Korn is the back-up. "Peters is fading" with Dylan McCaffery playing in front of Peters if not for a redshirt. Unless Speight get's injured, I don't think we'll see O'Korn in any roll other than mop-up duty.

Given that, we may see a spread to run type power offense a lot like the Patriots. Lots of TEs in the mix The threat of M's receivers is going to have to be accounted for and that favors success in an inside or outside, zone or power, run game. That's what I'm hearing. Complexity of the run game will likely be a feature with the intent to deceive and confuse the D. No question, if the opponent D F's it up and that bevy of really good but young receivers get open, Speight will put it up. OTH, I'll be surprised if opponent DC's don't work really hard to put pressure on and get to Speight. The outcome of that particular battle is going dictate what M's O looks like in each game.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 04:04 PM   #48
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Very disappointing - We are stuck with Speight most likely now for the next 2 years.

Fundamental issues with Peters and Harbaugh is simply hes too laid back as someone said hes “Jay Cutler-esque”. Doesn’t project enough leadership at this point to take control.
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Old August 25th, 2017, 09:38 PM   #49
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Good points Hanni and Jeff.

WingsFan-- I wouldn't worry too much about 3rd hand reports from camp. It seems like those haven't been very reliable in recent years.
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Old August 30th, 2017, 01:16 PM   #50
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1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 under

2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 under

3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 under

4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 under

5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 under

6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 over

7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 over

8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 under

9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 under

10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards over

11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 over

12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 over

13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 under

14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 under

15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 over

16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 over

17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 under

18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 under

19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 under

20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 under

TB) 432
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Old August 30th, 2017, 01:58 PM   #51
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Does the tiebreaker include the B1G championship game, CFP and National Title Game?
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Old August 30th, 2017, 02:30 PM   #52
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Does the tiebreaker include the B1G championship game, CFP and National Title Game?
Yes. That's why it says "for the whole season."
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Old August 31st, 2017, 08:47 AM   #53
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1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER
2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER
3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER
4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER
5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 UNDER
6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER
7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 UNDER
8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards UNDER
11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER
12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER
13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER
14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER
15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 OVER
16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER
17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER
18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER
19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER
20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

TOTAL POINTS 390
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Old September 1st, 2017, 07:14 PM   #54
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1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER

2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER

3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER

4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER

5) Passing TDs by Wilton Speight: 22.5 UNDER

6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 OVER

7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER

8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 OVER

9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards UNDER

11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER

12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER

13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 OVER

14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 UNDER

15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 UNDER

16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER

17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER

18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 UNDER

19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER

20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

TIE-BREAKER: Total Points Scored for the Whole Season? 470
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Old September 1st, 2017, 07:15 PM   #55
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JD, wanna try the auto-updating spreadsheet again? I'm sure I can save you some time on this if you sit in on a 10-minute Excel tutorial.
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Old September 2nd, 2017, 01:24 PM   #56
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JD, wanna try the auto-updating spreadsheet again? I'm sure I can save you some time on this if you sit in on a 10-minute Excel tutorial.
Send me a link to that tutorial please.
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Old September 2nd, 2017, 03:51 PM   #57
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Well, that would be you and me live. I'll make the spreadsheet and then show you how to use it.
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Old September 2nd, 2017, 04:21 PM   #58
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Anyone who bet the OVER on question #10, pop the champagne!
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Old September 2nd, 2017, 04:23 PM   #59
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Send me a link to that tutorial please.
You should've made picks too!
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Old September 2nd, 2017, 04:32 PM   #60
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Well, that would be you and me live. I'll make the spreadsheet and then show you how to use it.


Yeah, send me a copy, thanks. Just interested in improving my spreadsheet skills.
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