DetroitLionsForum.com
Please support the forum by using this link to shop with our sponsor:

Go Back   DetroitLionsForum.com > Sports Discussion Forums > University of Michigan

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old August 23rd, 2017, 05:16 PM   #21
The Oracle
Senior Member
 
The Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posts: 6,909
Cmon. The only games up in the air are Florida(75/25), PSU, Wisky and OSU, allof which are 50/50 in my book on Aug23. Now, will the choke one of them away? Maybe.
The Oracle is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 05:55 PM   #22
WM Wolverine
Senior Member
 
WM Wolverine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Michigan
Posts: 8,556
Indiana isn't the usual Indiana. They gave us one of our toughest wins last year and the Hoosiers should've beaten the Nittany Lions if not for 5 fumbles lost... I see Indiana beating at least 1 of Wisconsin, Michigan, OSU or Penn State and if someone gave me good enough odds I might take them to win 2.

-

If M wins 2 of Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State, & OSU; JB it's going to be because M is pretty good and LESS likely to lose a game they shouldn't... If M had Wisconsin & Penn State at home but OSU on the road, I might say 10 wins confidently. OSU is a likely loss regardless of venue and Wisconsin & Penn State I see as much more difficult in their stadiums.
WM Wolverine is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 06:18 PM   #23
AlabamAlum
Senior Member
 
AlabamAlum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Podunk Falls, Alabama
Posts: 5,595
Florida is 90/10
PSU is 50/50
tOSUc is 20/80.

In my opinion, anyway.
__________________
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
AlabamAlum is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 06:33 PM   #24
WM Wolverine
Senior Member
 
WM Wolverine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Michigan
Posts: 8,556
Michigan was originally -14 at Penn State, very safe play. I'm sure line has moved since...
WM Wolverine is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 07:24 PM   #25
Hannibal
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 7,419
Quote:
Originally Posted by iam416 View Post
To be clear, they only need to go 2-2 in those games, and beating Florida is a mortal lock.
They aren't a mortal lock by a long shot. That's still a 50/50 game unless Macelwain turns out to just be a really bad coach. Which is possible, I suppose.
Hannibal is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 07:45 PM   #26
AlabamAlum
Senior Member
 
AlabamAlum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Podunk Falls, Alabama
Posts: 5,595
Mcelwain is a decent coach. He has no QB in an offense that needs a QB, though. Michigan's pass D schemes are complex, advanced. This will force Florida to run, Michigan will load the box. Florida loses big.
__________________
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
AlabamAlum is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 07:46 PM   #27
hack
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 12,385
We'll be starting two true sophs at corner, neither of whom saw a ton of action last year. I guess that's weakness on weakness.
hack is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 08:00 PM   #28
WM Wolverine
Senior Member
 
WM Wolverine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Michigan
Posts: 8,556
M's linebackers & safeties need to make the tackle, can't let a 3-7 yd gain go 15+. If M's very young defense can limit the big play, they win easily. I'm just not confident that a defense this young and inexperienced will do that. Too many players making their first significant amount of action, too many players are making their 1st or 2nd start.
WM Wolverine is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 08:00 PM   #29
The Oracle
Senior Member
 
The Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posts: 6,909
Yeah, CBs, maybe safeties are my only major concern with this team. Hill sounds like hes ready at least. Get by Florida and we get a month to figure it out.
The Oracle is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 23rd, 2017, 08:36 PM   #30
Detroit Dan
Senior Member
 
Detroit Dan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Detroit
Posts: 3,378
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
To get to 10 wins M has to beat 3 of FLorida, @PSU, @ Wisconsin and osu
As others have pointed out, your math is wrong.

The schedule seems to set up well for Michigan this year, with the more challenging games toward the end of the year after our young team has had some time to work out the kinks.
Detroit Dan is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 07:57 AM   #31
SeattleLionsFan
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 22,475
1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER
2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER
3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER
4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER
5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 OVER
6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 OVER
7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER
8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards OVER
11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER
12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER
13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER
14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER
15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 OVER
16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER
17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER
18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER
19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER
20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

TB) 520 points
__________________
To be a professional means that you don't die. - Takeru "the Tsunami" Kobayashi
SeattleLionsFan is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 09:57 AM   #32
Jeff Buchanan
Senior Member
 
Jeff Buchanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 6,417
SLF, that's 40pts per game average!

If we've got Harbaughffense pegged, he's going to want 70+ plays in 60m of game clock. He'll have a 50/50 pass/run split, maybe 55/45 depending on what the defenses are giving or taking away. But, I'm thinking he's going to want as many 12-14 play drives as he can get rather than short, quick scoring drives.

That means this is likely going to be a 27-34 ppg offense. Lower v. FL, Wisky, PSU and osu. Higher v. Rutgers et. al. No way this is 40+ ppg offense.
__________________
On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
Jeff Buchanan is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 10:01 AM   #33
hack
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 12,385
Roughly a third of the season is beating up on crappy teams, though.
hack is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 10:30 AM   #34
Jeff Buchanan
Senior Member
 
Jeff Buchanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 6,417
Maybe ...... my sense is that Harbaugh won't run up gaudy scores. He also won't stop scoring if an opponent can't stop the offense but, again, he'll likely call plays that create long drives over plays that create short ones. Just my best guess at this point.
__________________
On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
Jeff Buchanan is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 10:55 AM   #35
The Oracle
Senior Member
 
The Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posts: 6,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
SLF, that's 40pts per game average!

If we've got Harbaughffense pegged, he's going to want 70+ plays in 60m of game clock. He'll have a 50/50 pass/run split, maybe 55/45 depending on what the defenses are giving or taking away. But, I'm thinking he's going to want as many 12-14 play drives as he can get rather than short, quick scoring drives.

That means this is likely going to be a 27-34 ppg offense. Lower v. FL, Wisky, PSU and osu. Higher v. Rutgers et. al. No way this is 40+ ppg offense.
They were right around there last year, with a similar schedule. Not too far out of the realm that the offense could be better. Also, we only had 4 D/ST TDs. Increae those by a few to account for the probability of not hitting 78 vs Rutgers and it could get close.

Improbably, but not impossible.
The Oracle is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 11:26 AM   #36
hack
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 12,385
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
Maybe ...... my sense is that Harbaugh won't run up gaudy scores. He also won't stop scoring if an opponent can't stop the offense but, again, he'll likely call plays that create long drives over plays that create short ones. Just my best guess at this point.
I would think you'd care more about getting the young WRs some work in those blowout situations.
hack is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 12:54 PM   #37
Jeff Buchanan
Senior Member
 
Jeff Buchanan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 6,417
This is a very well done article on what it will take for M to reach elite status and start winning v top 10 teams, something it has been unable to do. RR had one in his second season and M, under JH, beat Wisconsin in 2016. That's 2 ..... TWO!!! ....... wins against top ten teams in, what, 10 years. Awful!

https://saturdaytradition.com/michig...re-elite-2017/

Cliff notes:

Run the ball better. In all of the losses in the Harbaugh era, none of them have seen a rushing yards per game > 100. More troubling is the ypc well under 3 for the game and under 2 in the 4th qtr in the games where M had a 4th quarter lead.

Hope for the 2017 season? Frey, plain and simple. I'm pretty sure when the coaches meet for a head session after the season ended with the loss to FSU, they collectively recognized what the problem was - no run game when the team needed one - and Harbaugh went out and snagged one of the best OL coaches in CFB.

While the author alludes to it ("a face lift in the back field") I think he misses the likelihood that M is not going to have a featured back. There will be situational RBs based on down, distance, score differential and clock.
__________________
On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
Jeff Buchanan is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 01:00 PM   #38
hack
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 12,385
Hope for the 2017 season? Frey, plain and simple.

Yup. Not quite that simple, but if you had to say one thing...
hack is online now   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 01:47 PM   #39
WM Wolverine
Senior Member
 
WM Wolverine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Michigan
Posts: 8,556
M needs the right side of the offensive line to do their part. Onwenu & whoever wins the RT job (Runyan, Beatty, etc.). Left side looks All B1G caliber and will be a strength...

We'll see if Onwenu is ready to play at a high level, he's got the talent level just needs the reps and experience. A solid B1G RT will be a great sign at protecting Speight abd giving him time to go through his progressions.

Last season, we saw elite DL in our losses and some less than elite DL able to humiliate our interior OL and get pressure far too quickly on Speight. That can't happen in '17. Only a few opponents have those type of DL luckily.
WM Wolverine is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Old August 24th, 2017, 02:52 PM   #40
Detroit Dan
Senior Member
 
Detroit Dan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Detroit
Posts: 3,378
IMO, passing game is much more important than running game. So, in addition to Frey, the Pep Hamilton hire is new and important this year. Of course, the main factor on the positive side is named PeoplesJones-Black-Martin-Collins. Got to take advantage of that.
Detroit Dan is offline   Reply With Quote Top
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:06 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
All logos and trademarks in this site are property of their respective owners. The comments are property of their posters, all the rest © DetroitLionsForum.com.
This site is a non-profit fan site and IS NOT affiliated with the NFL or Detroit Lions or any other sports team. Please visit the official site of the Detroit Lions for official information on the Lions.