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Old November 20th, 2016, 08:54 PM   #21
Tslisher
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Heart:
Michigan's been planning for this all along. Speight will play and hit some long downfield bombs to loosen up the run game. Butt comes up big in the short passing game. The Pepcat formation has been all a set up for the entire season and peppers hands off/throws a pass that goes for a touchdown as every single osu player keys on him. Michigan 24 - OSU 10.

Head: Speight is hurt and goes out after a sack. O'Korn can't keep up a passing threat and OSU crowds the box. OSU runs the ball with both QB runs and running backs. M can't do enough on defense to stop them repeatedly and the offense sputters with O'Korn. Michigan 10 - OSU 24.

Going with the HEART - F*** OSU!
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Old November 20th, 2016, 09:25 PM   #22
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If we get Speight we're unlikely to get the good Speight. On-the-road Speight plus injured/ginger Speight. OL would have to keep him very, very clean.

I don't know what to think about several of the special packages. McDoom has been disappeared, to the extent that maybe there's a discipline problem? I would have thought that Peppers would have thrown out of Pepcat by now. I'd rather have established that threat already rather than unleash it with all the marbles on the line and have the guy throwing his first forward pass of his career. Better to just have the threat of the throw established by now, so the defenders have to think a sec.

Overall, I just don't know. Just don't know. Doesn't look good.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 09:42 PM   #23
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I'm with Tslisher on the head-heart thing. There's no way I'm picking against Michigan -- FACTS BE DAMNED (of course, that's the Spartans' line this year, with the 3-8 team boasting a pair of moral victories with very gutsy performances beyond the FACTS).

May the best team win, and officials be wise.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 09:52 PM   #24
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May the best team win, and officials be wise.
Unfortunately, the best team is probably going to win.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 07:24 AM   #25
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IMO, McCray is slow. Or he doesn't play fast. If he's tasked with stopping Samuel, then I'll revise my prediction.
Correct ........

samuel has to get through the wash created by the aggressive and penetrating play of M's DL first before he gets to confront the slowness of McCray in particular.

Just a little hesitation or disruption for samuel sprinting to the edge in that wash of bodies opens him up to back side pursuit from the likes of Wormly, Taco or Gary.

This isn't M's 2015 defense that got absolutely crushed on the edge. It isn't the NFL ready OL that osu put on the filed last year either.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 07:30 AM   #26
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I absolutely love BronxBlue's writing style when he does his Best and Worst piece at mgoblog. Here's what he had to say about The Game. It's a good read regaring the M/IU game.

Two weeks ago, I thought UM was the moderate favorite. With O’Korn under center on the road, I’d give the nod to OSU ever so slightly. But this is absolutely a game that UM can win with an okay performance from their QB; I’m not sure OSU can win if Barrett completes 50% of his passes and runs the ball 25 times. I’m not taking the maize-tinged glasses off quite yet, so I’m expecting UM pulls out a nail-biter and moves on to the B1G title game.

jtb had one of his best games ever against M last year in AA. This year he's in c-bus. He will play well - how well will depend a lot on M's D and that D isn't the one that got hammered in 2015.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/best-and-worst-indiana-2
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Old November 21st, 2016, 07:37 AM   #27
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OSU will exploit UM's edge weakness. JTB won't have to throw the ball deep. Assuming O'Korn is starting, my fear is that JH will go into an ultra conservative and predictable shell. Let's get imaginative with some misdirection and shorter passing routes that will give O'Korn some confidence...some screens and for heavens sakes get the ball into the hands of Butt. If he does these things it is a close game. If not, OSU pulls away in the 2nd half. I just don't see a "W" this year. Not quite there yet.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 07:51 AM   #28
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.......Not quite there yet.
I don't get this sort of reasoning. THIS is the year. It's too bad that M didn't get rolled in c-bus last year instead of AA. I think if this game were to be played in The Big House, M would likely win.

So, yeah there's a disadvantage there and, yeah, not having Speight with what he did do well at QB and instead having O'Korn, who we now absolutely know why Speight started over him, is a disadvantage.

But this looser mentality really bothers me. This a great team with a decent offense that can run the ball effectively. It is a terrific defense - maybe M's best ever.

The Game is eminently winnable in c-bus and with O'Korn IN 2016! Next year there will be big holes to fill. The time is now.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 08:06 AM   #29
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OSU's offensively is the type of team M has had issues with defensively. They've a mobile QB, run the read-option, have athletes that can get to the edge, make our LB's miss tackles and Weber should give us even more troubles than Wadley did.

Plus we're down our QB, plus we're on the road... If Speight starts I'll have some optimism...

Our defense is good enough that it could keep us in the game (hold OSU to about 20) and even give us a chance to win but I just can't see our offense clicking with O'Korn under center. Against a good defense like the Buckeyes, I don't see him moving the chains. He's a shotgun QB imo that needs to have a 3-4 receivers wide and make quick decisions or have plenty of time to throw.

Iowa's DL rushing just four gave us more problems than our pass protection could handle and is the reason we lost the Iowa game and why Speight is injured. The Buckeyes defensive line is even better.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 08:43 AM   #30
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If Speight plays and is healthy: OSU 38, UM 24
If Speight plays and is only 80%: OSU 38, UM 20
If O'Korn plays: OSU 41, UM 10

Either way: lay the points, take the over. IMHO the over is a no brainer.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 08:52 AM   #31
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I don't get this sort of reasoning. THIS is the year. It's too bad that M didn't get rolled in c-bus last year instead of AA. I think if this game were to be played in The Big House, M would likely win.

So, yeah there's a disadvantage there and, yeah, not having Speight with what he did do well at QB and instead having O'Korn, who we now absolutely know why Speight started over him, is a disadvantage.

But this looser mentality really bothers me. This a great team with a decent offense that can run the ball effectively. It is a terrific defense - maybe M's best ever.

The Game is eminently winnable in c-bus and with O'Korn IN 2016! Next year there will be big holes to fill. The time is now.
No loser mentality here Jeff. When JH came aboard I thought to myself let's give him 3 years to be competitive for the B10 championship. But here we are in the 2nd year and UM is not only competing for it but also in the top 3. I couldn't be happier. I just think it's going to be very difficult to win in Columbus with things they way they are now. Still...looking forward to the game and anything can happen. Go Blue!
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Old November 21st, 2016, 08:59 AM   #32
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I don't get this sort of reasoning. THIS is the year
Correct.

But, HARBAUGH!!!! has you boys on the arc toward long-term parity with UFM's OSU teams. It'll be a step back next year, or two, but after that I think it's relatively even. And that is, to emphasize, URBAN's OSU teams....another coach is not likely to be as successful as UFM. I mean, I'd bet a bazillion dollars that the next OSU coach won't win 60 of his first 65. Of course, Urbs only has 1 B10 title and that won't change this year.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 09:15 AM   #33
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Ohio State's defense, in a macro sense, has been really good for the bulk of most games, but then gives up absolutely head-scratching, out of the blue drives completely contra the run of the play. They did it, again, in EL when they allowed MSU to run LJ Scott straight down a relatively short field for what could have been the tying touchdown. They did it against PSU on their only 2 offensive TD drives. They did it against Wisconsin in the 4th quarter. They had taken a 20-16 lead, had basically eaten Wisky's lunch for 2.5 quarters and then gave up an 11 play TD drive aided by an inch perfect pass from Hornibrook to Peavy on 3rd and 9. They did it against IU to start the 2nd half when they gave up 4 3rd down conversions -- IU was otherwise 2 for 13 on 3rd downs for the game!

The point being that even if OSU absolutely stymies M for the bulk of the game, OSU will give up 2 scoring drives that seem out of place to the rest of the game.

As to a micro issue, I'm don't think OSU stymies M because OSU's DT play isn't good enough. M, when they've had some problems, have been torn up inside. Iowa wrecked them. Colorado caused them a lot of problems. And Wisconsin did a good job -- and was really good across the board. Ohio State doesn't have the DTs to do that. So I think M can have some success with the approach they took to the IU game -- in the 2nd half.

On the plus side, OSU's secondary has been very ball-hawkish. OSU has what seems like an inordinate number of pick 6s. Also, if OSU gets M in a passing down, then they bring in their "Rushmen" package, which is basically their best defensive lineman who all happen to be DEs. So instead of Robert Landers and Dremont Jones inside, it's Jalyn Holmes and Nick Bosa, with Lewis and Hubbard outside. It's caused teams problems. If it's O'Korn, I could see it causing M problems because he seemed so inclined to get out of Dodge ASAP. But that's one game. Now, IU addressed that by going hurry up. IU also blew OSU's doors off with two WR screens. M isn't likely to go hurry up, but I do think M is willing to run the ball on 3rd and 7 and I know they have a very effective screen game.

Offensively, there isn't much to add to what I've said. I'm hoping for a sensible approach. I expect 17-20 points.

Finally, as an intangible, OSU has certainly been in some really hard fought games. M has had 1 and they lost it. I'm not sure if that's worth anything, but I'll hang my hat on anything.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 09:22 AM   #34
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OSU's offensively is the type of team M has had issues with defensively.
Disagree ..... not on the scoreboard anyway. M had trouble with Pro-Style, Power teams like Wisky (a win) Iowa (a loss) and MSU (a win). They had trouble with chunk plays from reasonably competent spready teams but not keeping them out of the EZ (UCF, CU, Maryland and IU).

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They've a mobile QB, run the read-option, have athletes that can get to the edge, make our LB's miss tackles and Weber should give us even more troubles than Wadley did.
Clearly, osu is playing at a different level than any of the spready teams M handled but Don Brown's defense, unlike Durkin's was, is optimized to stop these offenses. weber isn't getting to the edge but samule can.

As I've already said, M's DL play this season is compensating for the weaknesses in speed evident with McCray and Gideon (apparently not Winovich). That kind of DL play, after Glascow and Ojemudia went out, wasn't there last season and osu, in combo with M's notoriously slow 2015 LBs, feasted. Backside pursuit from the M's DTs should terrify ufm and his OC. Having Peppers at a Hybrid LB position instead of S is a mitigating factor to osu's speed as well ..... as long as he is play side and you know damn well ufm will go away from or specifically account for him in on run plays.

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Plus we're down our QB, plus we're on the road...
Can't disagree with any of this. But it is what it is. Given osu's demonstrated vulnerability to the power run game, not sure you have to go vertical as often as Speight could, and could really optimize Harbaguffense in doing that when he was able. But, it appears Speight was vulnerable to neutralization of that part of his game with a heavy pass rush. He got rattled v Iowa and couldn't do that. Pretty sure osu would bring the same kind of pressure. So, to one extent, Speight v O'Korn might be a wash ...... one caveat there: I was not at all impressed by O'Korn's imitation of Devin Garnder with his spin/backward run moves. osu is going to rack up big sacks for big negative yards if JH can't coach him into not doing that. Other than that, he could be OK under the circumstances.

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.....Against a good defense like the Buckeyes, I don't see him moving the chains. He's a shotgun QB imo that needs to have a 3-4 receivers wide and make quick decisions or have plenty of time to throw.
Sadly this is true and as the saying goes, you can't change the stripes on a tiger, O'Korn is not suddenly going to become a great pocket passer with Speight's pocket presence when he's running Harbaughffense and not in the pistol where he thrived his first year at Houston.

I'd add that I was a little disappointed that the M offense cabal didn't seem to do much to put O'Korn in a spot where he would do well v IU. Quite the opposite it seemed to me. If there were 3 1st or 2nd down plays run from the shotgun v. IU, I'd be surprised. But, weather. Won't be surprised at all to see more of this that will optimize O'Korn's skill set v. osu under better field conditions.

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Iowa's DL rushing just four gave us more problems than our pass protection could handle and is the reason we lost the Iowa game and why Speight is injured. The Buckeyes defensive line is even better.
Correct.

When you look at the Iowa UFR, I think, for one shining moment in Ferentz coaching career, his defensive game plan (or maybe I should give credit to his DC) was pretty good. The OL looked like they were playing confused. Mason Cole and Kyle Kalis got absolutely whipped with the worst of this coming from free rushers with a clear shot at Speight and the S off a missed assignment by Kalid Hill on Deveon.

IU's D is not mince meat. All of that OL BS went away. Unless osu's D is going to pull out something really different, sowing confusion on M's OL like Iowa appeared to do, I'll put M's OL up against their DL any day.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 10:00 AM   #35
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As to a micro issue, I'm don't think OSU stymies M because OSU's DT play isn't good enough. M, when they've had some problems, have been torn up inside. Iowa wrecked them. Colorado caused them a lot of problems. And Wisconsin did a good job -- and was really good across the board. Ohio State doesn't have the DTs to do that. So I think M can have some success with the approach they took to the IU game -- in the 2nd half.


Have heard time and again that the weakness of that defense is its DTs, so that sure sounds like a very important matchup. Agreed that Michigan's offense has really struggled against good DTs, that have picked on Cole. If Michigan can create holes between the tackles and run through them, that's an awfully big deal. I think winning in Columbus is going to require some long and drawn out TD drives to keep the ball away from JTB and Samuel.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 10:17 AM   #36
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If there is ever a time for Peppers to return a kickoff for a TD, this is the game.
Not only due to how M is going to need the points, but because how Ohio State's kickoff team is one of the most douchey things there is.
How they swing their arms back and forth as if it is cool. douche x100000
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Old November 21st, 2016, 11:58 AM   #37
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If Speight plays and is healthy: OSU 38, UM 24
If Speight plays and is only 80%: OSU 38, UM 20
If O'Korn plays: OSU 41, UM 10

Speight will not be 100% by Saturday.

If Speight plays and doesn't get re-injured: OSU 28 M 10
If O'Korn plays: OSU 35 M 3
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Old November 21st, 2016, 12:01 PM   #38
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Talent -- you can relax for this one. It won't be a nail biter
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Old November 21st, 2016, 12:07 PM   #39
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OSU is very fast and athletic on defense. It doesn't really matter who plays QB. Michigan's O-line is average, and they don't have a RB that can get yards with just a small crease. OSU's DBs are ball hawks, and both M QBs are tentative. Defensively, M will need to stop JT Barrett from running for first downs, or they are toast. They have not played a QB with his running ability, and I've noticed that he carries the ball a lot on critical 3rd downs.
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Old November 21st, 2016, 12:12 PM   #40
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We'll score more than 10 with Speight.
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