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Old November 20th, 2016, 10:57 AM   #1
Jeff Buchanan
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Michigan @ osu, Game day and Post Game Discussion (Closed)

A play-in game.

Two of the top 4 CFP teams evenly matched. It's a shame we don't have an 8-team playoff as some very good football teams are going to get shut out by the selection committee.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 11:25 AM   #2
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It already is an 8 team playoff with the division setup and conference championship games...

Majority of the winners of the P5 conferences will punch their ticket with only Ohio State having a chance to get an 'at-large' invite.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 11:29 AM   #3
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Michigan might win The Game again...









in Brandon Peters junior or senior year.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 11:36 AM   #4
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Michigan has lost 11 of 12 vs OSU.
Somethings gotta give ... eventually... probably not this year.
I hope McCray isn't matched up vs Samuel 1 vs 1... that is a scary thought for M.
Ohio Sate LOVES to run a QB draw/run on conversion attempts. Watch out for those.

OSU 20
M 10.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 11:37 AM   #5
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Buchanan needs to post to whip you boys into shape.

M has a great chance to win this season.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 11:52 AM   #6
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M has a chance if Speight is close to 100% and they can keep him that way.

Odds of that happening is close to 0%.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 12:05 PM   #7
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Oklahoma needs M to beat the vermin.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 12:11 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
A play-in game.

Two of the top 4 CFP teams evenly matched. It's a shame we don't have an 8-team playoff as some very good football teams are going to get shut out by the selection committee.
I think it will at least get to 8 at some point. A team like WMU should have a shot at making a playoff, even if they're only going to get stomped. The way it's set up right now, they don't.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 12:13 PM   #9
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Tough game to call.

Agree with the general sentiment ..... its gonna be a 20s to high teens affair with an OU under 40. Reading around last week and now today, I also agree with the general sentiment that Speight is not going to play. It'll be JOK.

Early fcst for Saturday 11/26 is for partly sunny skies, temps in the upper 40s. That wx would help M if a Speight appearance were imminent. It's not. So, O'Korn. That hurts M a bit but I'm not ready to prepare for M's funeral like Rocky is. QBs make their most improvement between games one and two. O'Korn has the tools. Leave it to the QB Whisperer.

If you can't stretch the osu D though, like O'Korn demonstrated he could not v. IU, osu will sit on the run and short passing game. I think that's the main element that tilts this game toward the buckeyes. That, and how play makers on M's side of the ball have tended not to make plays on the road. The play makers (Peppers, Darboh, all the backs, esp. Deveon and Evans and the TEs, esp. Butt) have to make big plays if M is to have any chance at all. Maybe O'Korn will make some throws. He has to ....... and not turn it over. We already know from the IU game that Harbaugh lacks some confidence in JOK's capacity NOT to turn it over.

I've liked what I've seen from M's D v. spready power teams ...... in the second half. I know about CU and Liufau. He doesn't go down, that game would have probably been a win for CU. But Brown appears to get it when it comes to how to defend this kind of stuff. His half time adjustments must be pretty good as this is where M has done best on D. The worst in game adjustments the D has made is covering the 3 and WR sets that necessitate - in the eyes of the defenders on the field - taking a defender wide to one side of the field against an offensive play that goes in the other direction. That one pisses me off and Peppers, as is his assigned Hybrid role, is usually the unfortunate guy to get sucked into that.

Glasgow is key at DT v IZ. He played very well v. IU's Redding. He'll have to watch film a lot to prepare for weber on the play fake and jtb doing that. McCray and company (mostly the DEs) are going to have to have one hell of a game setting the edge v samuel. If PFF is right in grading out M's D v IU's O, they're up to it .......

DT Ryan Glasgow, 83.1
DE Taco Charlton, 80.5
DE Chris Wormley, 79.8
LB Mike McCray, 79.6

I agree with talent though that jtb, weber and samuel are going to play at a different level than Lagow, Redding and whoever IU's speed back/slotty guy is but the plays are the same albeit they'll happen a bit quicker for osu. But for an IU team that was pushing 450ypg and 5.8ypp, M's D did a good job holding IU to 255y total, 64 rushing yards at 1.8ypp. Obviously jtb brings that slipperyness to the field and attendant ability to make plays. Not sure how you plan for sheer talent. Gap and position discipline I guess.

I actually don't see the LBs getting sucked up as a defensive weakness exposing the D to the short passing game like talent does. I think Brown is going to deploy the LBs and Ss aggressively, relying on whoever is back there among Stribling, Lewis and the FS, to cover those. Stribling may have issues but for the most part he's better than most CBs playing among the top 10 teams. Brown believes, if my own eyes are to be believed, the best way to muck up spready power teams is to put defenders in the back field. That's worked for M ..... mostly ...... except for when they get burned. Heh.

So, here, I dunno. M's front four and aggressive style of defense has worked against almost every OL they've faced. Sure, CU, MSU, Iowa and IU all had some game but the CU game was early and Mattison appears to have had some time to coach up his guys to not run past the ball carrier/seal the gaps even playing angry and aggresively. Half-time coaching in terms of getting the players to understand what the offense is doing appears to have been good too. How good is osu's OL in stopping penetration? Pretty good ..... maybe:

osu, Illinois (30th) @ 17 sacks allowed.
Wisconsin, (43rd) @ 19
MSU, IU (68th) @ 23
CU (81) @ 25

So, no clue how The Game will end. I was very wrong about Iowa and that put the clamps on my predicting big win margins for M. Closer with IU but I wasn't picking any scores, just stating it would be close. Said the same thing about MSU and osu. I think we've got enough on both teams to know a good deal about how the scripts will play out on both sides. The problem is that it's not likely that any of us know what the script for this particular game is going to be. I'm expecting both ufm and JH to come up with some stuff that's not been seen ...... and fer God's sake if I see McDoom set up for and then do the predictable in the jet sweep or the PepCat package goes out and does what it ALWAYS does, I too will throw bricks at the TV.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 12:46 PM   #10
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Amen to the last sentence
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Old November 20th, 2016, 12:46 PM   #11
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It's f'ing irritating
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Old November 20th, 2016, 04:47 PM   #12
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Quote:
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I think it will at least get to 8 at some point. A team like WMU should have a shot at making a playoff, even if they're only going to get stomped. The way it's set up right now, they don't.
Heck, they won't even make the Cotton Bowl. Even if they win their next two games, Boise St. will go as the non con. 5 team
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Old November 20th, 2016, 04:58 PM   #13
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OSU 7.5 favorites/ Final OSU 28 UM 17
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Old November 20th, 2016, 05:24 PM   #14
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I just watched all the plays in the M v IU game compressed into one youtube video.

I was harping on how badly M defended those plays where recievers were way wide and there was pre-snap motion to one side of the field drawing a defender, usually Peppers, with him with the play going the opposite direction.

Interestingly, IU tried this twice. M was in a 4-3, zone look on both plays with Peppers in his usual hybrid LB position (a step to the field side, aligned with McCray and Gideon (or Winovich) in LB depth and angled slightly toward the QB). When the slot, field side TE or a receiver motioned to the boundary side, Peppers stayed put.

It looked like McCray or Gideon (Winovich) were coached to maintain gap integrity until it was clear where the play was going (IZ, OZ or jet sweep). If the play went away from Peppers, and it did on those two plays I saw this, Peppers took the deeper angle with a S coming up to help clean up. The other two LBs and the play side DTs and DEs attacked aggressively, shed blocks and made tackles. DTs Hurst and Glascow played this really well. Wormly/Gary/Taco as DEs as well. Unlike CU, MSU and Maryland, esp. Iowa, v IU there was never the helmet advantage opponent's were getting with this stuff.

I get samuel's speed but for him to get the big chunk plays osu needs him to get he has to get to the edge and then to the second level. Again, how good is osu's OL? Can they keep M's DL from penetrating and screwing up the flow for samuels? Can they keep LBs McCray, Gideon (Winovich) out of samuel's way if he does get through the flow of bodies? Can Peppers, and S's clean up and prevent those big plays?

Big questions.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 05:44 PM   #15
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"Big questions."

If O'Korn has to play, the only question is, "How bad will it be?"
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Old November 20th, 2016, 06:33 PM   #16
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Well, maybe not bad at all.

Look, M's offense is probably a good deal better when Speight is good Speight not Iowa Speight. But we're not going to see if bad Speight or good Speight plays v osu. It's O'Korn. So, deal with that.

The Game is going to be about match-ups. My view is that osu has an advantage in most places except run defense. M may be able to exploit that. I think the chances of doing that are a lot greater if JOK can manage to show he's a down field passing threat - he's got the receivers to be that. If he can make a couple throws early, back the Ss out a bit, good for him. Pretty sure the play calling cabal will try to do that.

If they do and it succeeds even a little, we're going to see a Deveon Smith/Chris Evans extravaganza with a bit of Ty Isaac and Karan Higdon thrown in. I actually like M's run offense better than I like osu's but that's just me. Obviously, jtb adds another dimension to osu's ground game but I feel OK, just OK, mind you, about the ability of Brown and his players to deal with him after they dealt with the kitchen sink that Kevin Wilson and his offensive play callers put out there.

It would really help Brown and his coaching staff if Harbaugh and the offensive cabal were able to put O'Korn in a position to make some throws. That may not happen. If it doesn't and jtb is his usual self as a passer, producing a typical November B10 slug fest on the ground, passing be damned because both coaches don't rust their QBs, I like M's chances if that is what it turns out to be. It's the one area where Jimmys and Joes match up best for M.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 06:40 PM   #17
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
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Old November 20th, 2016, 06:43 PM   #18
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Oh, BTW .......

Fuck osu.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 07:42 PM   #19
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IMO, McCray is slow. Or he doesn't play fast. If he's tasked with stopping Samuel, then I'll revise my prediction.
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Old November 20th, 2016, 08:25 PM   #20
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IMO, McCray is slow. Or he doesn't play fast. If he's tasked with stopping Samuel, then I'll revise my prediction.
I imagine McCray will be.
It will probably cost M in a couple key moments.

M will call a blitz and put McCray 1 vs 1 on Samuel. JT will toss it out to Samuel and he will go for 20.
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