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Old November 7th, 2016, 10:04 PM   #21
iam416
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I think it's probably better to look at OSU offensive efficiency against Wisky and PSU. Or even in non-Rutgers B10 games.

Ohio State won't score with ease against M. I'd say 27 win s it, and maybe less.

It is worth observing, however, that M hasn't played many decent offenses.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 10:42 PM   #22
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One of the hallmarks of the Brown defense is that it will work well against good offenses. The defense will gamble to keep the offense off balance. The outcome is often determined by the RPS as opposed to the talent on the field.

So Michigan has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.27, compared to Ohio's 0.86. IOW, our offense is 50% better according to this measure.

I agree with Jeff that it (UM-OSU) will be a high scoring game.

Michigan beats Iowa handily, according to any objective measure.
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Old November 8th, 2016, 12:38 AM   #23
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Don't like what I've seen the last two weeks on defense. Good news is Iowa is pretty bad and pretty straight forward. No problem there but the next two games after offer a better challenge.

I have a bad feeling OSU will shred our defense like last year. They will be ready to play their best offensive game of the year. Brown will have to have his best game plan of the year to slow them down.
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Old November 8th, 2016, 01:43 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
I read it. He's got what happened on M's D mostly correct. What he isn't telling you was how opponents have optimized their plays to the edges and why that works against M's tendencies on D (and how Brown deploys the players and coaches them to attack not read a play).

Brown alternately plays 1 and 2 hi safeties on the back end. He plays press man coverage at the corners. His LBs are deployed in several different sets from a typical 4-3 to atypical 5-2 with usually Peppers right up on the LOS in this set. Regardless, they attack.

MSU and Maryland both aligned heavy on the play side after a shift of TEs or a LT with motion from a receiver to the (opposite) back side. This draws either a LB or a S to the back side and invites a hard blitz from a LB or S on the back side where the TEs and/or LT just vacated. The intent is to produce miss-match in numbers and hopefully skill sets and size on the play side. It also takes maximum advantage of Brown's penchant to blitz.

What are the risks and how does this actually work for the opponent? Well, pretty simple. An aggressive defense playing 2 his Ss is vulnerable to well executed plays more to the edge than in the middle. M's is especially vulnerable because M typically reacts to motion as I described above.

A match-up between a 190 lb CB and a 300 lb OT, pulling guard or big TE isn't going to go well. This isn't guys playing poorly or lacking skills or getting off blocks. It's well designed and executed plays by the offense.

Here's a couple of other things:
  • M had 13 TFLs vs Maryland and if I recall, the Terps had something under 100 yards rushing and just over 170 total yards well into the third quarter. While there are risks to Brown's D, there are also rewards and the 2016 stats through 9 games bears this out in spades.
  • M averages 47.8 PPG on offense and gives up 10.7 PPG on defense.
  • M averages 497 YPG and gives up 246.

There are people who can hear a missed note in a Bach Cello Suite played by Yo Yo Ma or the Opera Pagliacci performed by Pavarotti. Few people can do that and to most listeners these are masterpieces. I draw this analogy only for the purpose of pointing out that even the best aren't flawless but everyone, including the performers, know when they've put on a good show.

Michigan has certainly done that in 2016.

9-0 with only a few missed notes on the way.
All well and good but Brown will have deviate/mix up his defensive schemes when it comes time to play OSU because they will undoubtedly bust a lot of those 8 - 10 yard gains the lesser teams are getting on the perimeter into much longer touchdown runs.
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Old November 8th, 2016, 02:19 PM   #25
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This feels like a time-of-possession/red-zone execution game. Which is not exactly a real out-there thing to say, mind you.
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Old November 8th, 2016, 04:59 PM   #26
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I think ol' Urbz is salivating to play M. Match up dream for him.
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Old November 8th, 2016, 05:10 PM   #27
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Line is down to -18
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Old November 8th, 2016, 05:15 PM   #28
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Old November 10th, 2016, 06:56 PM   #29
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Michigan has lost four of the last five games in this series. Haven't won @ Kinnick since 2005, more demons for Harbaugh to exercise.
I agree. Too many of those demons are in terrible shape.
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Old November 10th, 2016, 08:01 PM   #30
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

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Old November 10th, 2016, 08:16 PM   #31
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Lots of demons getting exorcised by HARBUAGH!
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Old November 10th, 2016, 11:36 PM   #32
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Thats a fack!
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Old November 11th, 2016, 03:12 PM   #33
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So, M fans are concerned about defending the edge and Tunnel Screens. We should be.

There is another fine job done by Brian in his UFR on M's D v. Maryland. In it, he explains how Maryland abused M with plays that (1) ran right at M's weaknesses in defending the edge and (2) by showing back to back good and bad ways to defend Tunnel Screens and run to the edge of M's D plays, it becomes obvious how these plays should be defended but may, due to talent issues, be hard to fix.

Maryland used a lot of 4 WR sets. What was unique about them is that the receivers were WAYYYYY wide. The net effect was to draw a defender WAYYY out there making it easier to get more Maryland helmets than M had to defend that space.

Guess where the run to the edge plays were most effective? Correct. Stribbling's side of the field (where Peppers is not). On four plays where there is good video available, you can see Stribbling missing tackles/did not force the runner back inside on two of them. McCray not correctly reading the play and putting himself in a position to make a play on one other. McCray appears to learn, though, and on the 4th run of this play, reads it correctly and tackles the runner for a short gain.

Running this play or any play to the outside in Gideon's direction (where Peppers usually was) was a bad idea for Maryland. It was run once or twice for no gain or a loss.

The issue with Stribbling is going to persist and Brian offers that this is something that he expects Brown will do something tactical with.

On the Tunnel Screens, M is vulnerable to this when Brown blitzes a LB as it leaves a vacated space that the play is run directly into. It is a good lesson in how this play is properly defended when you watch it gashing M (in a blitz) for a big chunk play and when it gets hammered for a short gain (not in a blitz). On balance, remember M had 13 TFLs in this game so, blitz on Don, blitz on.

Brian also notes Maryland is good. Way better than MSU in that Maryland, unlike MSU, kept having success with nothing particularly exotic but just executing plays well and mixing them up for 3 quarters. Once MSU got off script (the first couple of possessions were on script), it was not an unexpected fail.

One other thing not mentioned explicitly by Brain in his UFR but I guess you could imply it: Rodriguez was famous for these way wide 4 WR sets for Denard. Gave him room to do his thing; as Denard was discovered to not be a passing threat, doing his thing became more dangerous for Denard's health. A predictable beating ensued.

As well, M, during RR's tenure, could not score as the field shortened because M lacked big people and a power, inside run game. The quasi albatross of the spread in general. Maryland followed that script. osu won't.

Expect osu to challenge M's edges. If jtb gets his rhythm in the short passing and screen game, it's going to be hell to pay. Brian expects M will be repping their weaknesses in defending the tunnel screen and coming up with some wrinkels on Brown's approach to plays running to the edge out of 4 WR sets that put two guys on each side WAYYYY out there like Maryland did.

BTW, up until now, Iowa does none of this. I suspect they might ...... never mind. Ferentz.
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Old November 11th, 2016, 03:33 PM   #34
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Obviously a concern. However, if Iowa and Indiana try to take advantage of this and M does a credible job adjusting or correcting the issue then I hope this will help prepare them to do a better job defending OSU. So, maybe a good thing Maryland exposed the D as it gives M a chance to do something about it the next two games. Hopefully!
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Old November 11th, 2016, 04:43 PM   #35
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Obviously a concern. However, if Iowa and Indiana try to take advantage of this and M does a credible job adjusting or correcting the issue then I hope this will help prepare them to do a better job defending OSU. So, maybe a good thing Maryland exposed the D as it gives M a chance to do something about it the next two games. Hopefully!
Yes, this was one of Brian's positive takes on M's D getting abused more than we, as fans, think it should have been. Teaching points.

Brown will make tactical adjustments to this weakness which was not one off for the Maryland game, it is a trend and it's been present in most contests. The problem is that ufm will be watching film very closely of the next two games, probably more closely than any of the others. While Iowa isn't really big on edging an opponent's D, I think even Ferentz will try. Not sure I want Brown to show how he's planning on attacking that sort of stuff v. Iowa.

IU is a replica of osu's offense in many ways. They will try to edge M big time.

Don't know if anyone caught this but Brown has experimented with Mone in a 3-4 front. This set on D is probably getting repped in practice. The couple of times I saw it v MSU, I didn't like it at all but I'm not sure Mone was 100% either. Dantonio ran successfully right at Peppers out there alone as a Hybrid in that scheme. It's a front not likely to work against teams like MSU (it didn't) and Iowa (I doubt you'll see it). We might see it against IU and quickly shelved if it's a bust.
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Old November 11th, 2016, 05:04 PM   #36
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Sparty had some success doing what Maryland did very effectively too, just with lesser athletes. Colorado & UCF had some success on the edge as well when they got everyone they needed to blocked.
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Old November 11th, 2016, 10:11 PM   #37
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Yes, but were much better to combate (iF) that is a problem again with the offense now. Especially Speights improvement as well the O-line is jelling
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Old November 12th, 2016, 08:31 AM   #38
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I believe that 2005 Michigan at Iowa game was an epic OT win too... or at least very close to end regulation. Wow can't believe that was almost a decade ago... time goes by fast.

As long as Michigan's offense continues to play well, M shouldn't have any issues. In the Iowa games I've seen this year, Iowa's o-line looked very "non-Iowa like." Not good. Beathard shouldn't have a chance vs Michigan's D line.
Watch out for Desmond King. King vs Darboh and Chesson is going to be a fun matchup.

Michigan 28
Iowa 10
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Old November 12th, 2016, 08:58 AM   #39
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Iowa does have some players but it's spotty. Lots of issues including pass-pro on offense and back end play on defense. It is Kinnick, it is going to be cold. If Speight is on the same page as his receivers, he's going to have a big night. If not, it's going to be a closer game with a score more like Cody predicts and less like I did. But still, Michigan, so far, is good. Really good. I've not seen one let down this season. Maybe some legit issues but no let downs. Team plays with a lot of enthusiasm and seems to be exceptionally well prepared every week.
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Old November 12th, 2016, 09:05 AM   #40
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I've always felt Stribling was the weak point in the D. He's got a couple of gimme picks but is susceptible to getting beat deep. As JB pointed out, he missed some open field tackles in the Maryland game which would have resulted in tfls instead of 10-15 yard gains. He'd be the guy I pick on as an OC.

Durkin did M a huge favor by exposing some of the weaknesses. As long as teams continue to play their best against M, M will continue to see new weaknesses which were previously unseen. This can only help them against a stout buckeyes squad. So, thanks Durkin.

Speight = Stud. This guy is a magician. He does Ben Roethlisberger better than Ben Roethlisberger does Ben Roethlisberger. Another win for the QB whisperer.

M 38 - Iowa 10
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