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Old November 6th, 2016, 04:45 PM   #1
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Michigan @ Iowa, 8pm EST, Game Day, Post Game Discussion.

Installed as a 21-point favorite? Seems high to me

Last edited by WingsFan; November 6th, 2016 at 04:47 PM.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 04:47 PM   #2
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Certainly too high, another team that shouldn't score much against M's defense however Iowa does play defense unlike most B1G teams. They could hold us under 30; I'll say 30-10.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 05:04 PM   #3
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I predicted a loss before the season, think it will be close with M pulling it out. Kinnick at night will be tough. 7+ Seems more realistic
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Old November 6th, 2016, 06:06 PM   #4
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This an ABC national telecast with ESPN3 also picking it up. It's not a mirror game. Also don't miss the time change. It's at 7p in Iowa City but 8p in the east.

WingsFan, stuck as requested.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 06:07 PM   #5
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21 points does seem way too high. Kinnick is horrible for us.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 06:17 PM   #6
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I'll look at some numbers to back this up but Iowa does not match up well with M across the board. This gets mititgated by playing at Kinnick. It gets cold and windy. The stands are almost on top of the field. It's loud. I've been there twice. It is, as has been pointed out, a hard place for the visiting team to play. It will be a test and whiners who say M hasn't been tested on the road will be silenced win or lose.

Iowa does have some good players where they usually do. On the OL where they run a zone blocking scheme efficiently and at spots on the D. Ferentz is in the Lloyd Carr school of coaching. Out execute your opponent and you will win. This year's record shows how bad an approach like this works in today's CFB game. Iowa is a perennial 7-5, 8-4 team with a few lucky bounces to get them to 9 wins.

If the weather is not awful, M is going to succeed through the air a lot like they did against Maryland. If the weather is bad, it's going to be a low scoring slog that favors Iowa. Right now, I'll go with - 10.5 for the M win. Like talent points out, the spread is set to get a lot of action on the wrong side. It's too high.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 06:22 PM   #7
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Thanks Jeff, Michigan has not played a game outside the state (only vs Rutgers). Trap game for sure, Harbaugh will have them ready though.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 06:36 PM   #8
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No reason to reverse mirror if it's national game.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 07:36 PM   #9
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Penn State just ran the ball straight up Iowa's ass.
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Old November 6th, 2016, 10:24 PM   #10
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I like Michigan's chances based upon results this year to date.

What's with the home field advantage this year? It shouldn't make much of a difference in college football. One field is pretty much the same as another. But the officiating is either crap or it's honest. So far, I'll go with crap. So I suppose Iowa could have some stupid chance. Thankfully, Harbaugh has proven beyond all that, as the nonsense at E Lansing did not even phase him. Michigan wins easily again.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 09:36 AM   #11
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The only reason that this game worries me is because it is at Kinnick. We suck so badly in that stadium. In 1994, we beat a 5-win Iowa team by 15 points after pulling away late in a pretty ugly contest. In 1998, we beat a terrible 3-8 Iowa team 12-9 thanks to a late field goal and a safety. In 2001, we beat them by 6 points when we blocked a punt for a TD and every break went our way. In 2003, we lost by 3 after a late score made it look closer than it was. In 2005, we beat them in OT. RichRod lost in 2009. In 2011, our 11-2 Sugar Bowl team lost to 7-6 Iowa by 8. In 2013, we lost again by 3 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated.

On paper, we should kick the shit out of them. They lost to NDSU in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated. They needed a bunch of turnovers to beat Miami, OH. They got blown out by Penn State. S&P has them as the 87th rushing defensein the country. Worse than Hawaii, MSU, and Rutgers. Shouldn't be close but, like I said -- Kinnick.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 09:55 AM   #12
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sadly, I was in that stadium freezing my ass of off in that 2013 game --- that game was one of the worst, poorly-played (by both teams) games you will ever see.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 10:43 AM   #13
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Haven't won in Iowa since 2005. Time to erase that. The game I remember is Junior Hemingway's winning TD reception overturned by a crappy review.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 01:24 PM   #14
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great dissection of our recent defensive problems.

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/inde...rt_river_index

Teams are really going after the Stribling side of the field. He and McCray really need to get off blocks. Otherwise, Stribs may need to give way to someone who can.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 01:29 PM   #15
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Even when they are unblocked they are taking bad angles.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 02:31 PM   #16
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This reminds me ominously of 2006 and 2015. In both of those years, we had an overrated defense with some stark weaknesses that started to get exposed right about this time of the year. Then OSU ripped off 42 points on us.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 03:47 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasadena Blue View Post
great dissection of our recent defensive problems.

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/inde...rt_river_index

Teams are really going after the Stribling side of the field. He and McCray really need to get off blocks. Otherwise, Stribs may need to give way to someone who can.
I read it. He's got what happened on M's D mostly correct. What he isn't telling you was how opponents have optimized their plays to the edges and why that works against M's tendencies on D (and how Brown deploys the players and coaches them to attack not read a play).

Brown alternately plays 1 and 2 hi safeties on the back end. He plays press man coverage at the corners. His LBs are deployed in several different sets from a typical 4-3 to atypical 5-2 with usually Peppers right up on the LOS in this set. Regardless, they attack.

MSU and Maryland both aligned heavy on the play side after a shift of TEs or a LT with motion from a receiver to the (opposite) back side. This draws either a LB or a S to the back side and invites a hard blitz from a LB or S on the back side where the TEs and/or LT just vacated. The intent is to produce miss-match in numbers and hopefully skill sets and size on the play side. It also takes maximum advantage of Brown's penchant to blitz.

What are the risks and how does this actually work for the opponent? Well, pretty simple. An aggressive defense playing 2 his Ss is vulnerable to well executed plays more to the edge than in the middle. M's is especially vulnerable because M typically reacts to motion as I described above.

A match-up between a 190 lb CB and a 300 lb OT, pulling guard or big TE isn't going to go well. This isn't guys playing poorly or lacking skills or getting off blocks. It's well designed and executed plays by the offense.

Here's a couple of other things:
  • M had 13 TFLs vs Maryland and if I recall, the Terps had something under 100 yards rushing and just over 170 total yards well into the third quarter. While there are risks to Brown's D, there are also rewards and the 2016 stats through 9 games bears this out in spades.
  • M averages 47.8 PPG on offense and gives up 10.7 PPG on defense.
  • M averages 497 YPG and gives up 246.

There are people who can hear a missed note in a Bach Cello Suite played by Yo Yo Ma or the Opera Pagliacci performed by Pavarotti. Few people can do that and to most listeners these are masterpieces. I draw this analogy only for the purpose of pointing out that even the best aren't flawless but everyone, including the performers, know when they've put on a good show.

Michigan has certainly done that in 2016.

9-0 with only a few missed notes on the way.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 04:47 PM   #18
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Michigan has lost four of the last five games in this series. Haven't won @ Kinnick since 2005, more demons for Harbaugh to exercise.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 05:08 PM   #19
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Here's the S&P Five Factors Match-Up for M at Iowa Conclusions:

The IsoPPP advantages of Iowa in standard downs and rushing plays appears to be a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. These comparative results have been consisent since the Colorado game. As we know, the explosive plays don't occur as often as with other teams simply because the M defense is 1) particularly effective at keeping opposing offenses behind the chains, and 2) not on the field for as many plays as the M offense.

On defense, it appears that the Hawkeyes are particularly mediocre in defending against the run. Iowa ranks in the 50's in most Rushing Defense categories, but is #118 in Adjusted Line Yards and #126 in Stuff Rate. This might suggest that the M ground attack will be particularly effective in salting this game away in the second half.

On offense, the Iowa passing attack is looking quite poor, ranking no higher than #71 in any category other than Passing Down Success Rate, in which it is #56. Iowa is #109 in PD Line Yards/Carry, and #120 in PD IsoPPP. Not to mention, Iowa is #112 in Adjusted Sack Rate, as well as #114 in SD Sack Rate. I can already picture Mo Hurst rubbing his belly as he towers over a prostrate C.J. Beathard.


To me, the most important part of this conclusion is the trend line over the season that replicates itself again vs Iowa. It demonstrates that M gives up explosive plays to its opponents. At this point, I'm beginning to wonder, so what?

Well, here's what. I just read an analytical piece that compares M v. all likely CFP teams using S&P Five Factors comparisons for offense and defense. Here's the conclusion:

Defensively, it's interesting to see that the performances correlate so closely with the quality of opponents. This chart makes it abundantly clear that Michigan has not played an elite offensive opponent, especially compared to the other top teams. We've obviously handled every offense on our schedule, but the best teams we've faced have been good mostly because of their defenses (Wisconsin, Penn St, mostly Colorado). But I'd predict we give up closer to 30 against Ohio State than 10, and same goes for a potential playoff game against any of these offenses.


So, we know that Brown's attacking D is going to give up a few big plays. So far, none of them have hurt the final outcome. Maybe made some of you feel a little uneasy during the games and also a little concerned about what's ahead.

I can't say I'm not concerned about osu. The reason is that osu does have an explosive offense but compared to other teams M has faced, it is much more efficient. Here's the FEI Offensive Efficiency (OFEI) against select M opponents:
  • Wisconsin = 0.22
  • Colorado = 0.38
  • PSU = 0.38
  • Iowa = 0.33
  • Terps = 0.26
  • MU = 0.26

These are not efficient offenses. For comparison WMU = 1.17, M = 1.27; these are very efficient offenses.

osu = 0.86, nearly 3X as efficient as any offense M has faced. So, while I think M will do well against Iowa even at Kinnick based not on the eye test, which M definitely passes, but rather based on well established past performance - something that has high predictive value.

Unfortunately, I see problems ahead for M facing the borderline elite offense of osu that finishes drives. The Game, then, should be a fun one to watch. I don't think it will be a defensive battle. Both teams will move the ball and score. Who will score more is the question it would seem. I think it will take 40 points to beat osu in c-bus and no offense has done that in any game at the shoe that I can remember under ufm.
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Old November 7th, 2016, 09:45 PM   #20
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Good analysis, Jeff... I agree with it.

There is little reason to think that O-state won't put up as many points as us this year as last year --- I see the same defensive issues and a pretty potent O-state attack.

The question this year is can our offense keep up. Last year we did so for a half before coming undone.
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