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Old October 16th, 2016, 08:39 AM   #1
Jeff Buchanan
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Illinois @ Michigan, Game Day - Post Game Discussion.

The numbers paint a bleak picture for the Illini. Iv'e seen teams coming off a bye play flat so, that's a potential problem.

I don't think it is going to be one for a HARBAUGH!! coached M team though. Jake Butt was quoted as saying after the Rutgers win, "Coach told us the two most important games of the 2016 season were the ones right before and right after the bye week."

M is likely going to rack up big rushing numbers against the Illinois defense and if Illinois can score more than 7 points, it's going to come off turnovers/short fields.
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Old October 16th, 2016, 09:00 AM   #2
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I had a dream; 77-7...
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Old October 16th, 2016, 09:41 AM   #3
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Sounds about right.
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Old October 16th, 2016, 01:37 PM   #4
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Tune up for Sparty, stay healthy. Rumors that Speights shoulder still hasn't been right since that big hit vs Colorado. Not really buying it, that hitch in his throwing mechanics ad to these rumors.
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Old October 16th, 2016, 03:58 PM   #5
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49 - 3. They take it easy on them in the second half.
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Old October 16th, 2016, 04:40 PM   #6
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Do not underestimate The Lovie...
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Old October 16th, 2016, 04:44 PM   #7
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The Lovie minus weapons is hog tied.
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On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): “We'd rather be about it than talk about it."
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Old October 16th, 2016, 04:49 PM   #8
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Quote:
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Rumors that Speights shoulder still hasn't been right since that big hit vs Colorado. Not really buying it, that hitch in his throwing mechanics ad to these rumors.
Hopefully the bye week helped rest it.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 08:30 AM   #9
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Michigan favored by 34 right now.

It's hard for me to see us not covering that with Illinois just having given up 200+ rushing yards to both Purdue and Rutgers. But I guess that the gamblers have a pretty hard ceiling on how many points they are willing to spot somebody, now matter how awful they are.

Last edited by Hannibal; October 17th, 2016 at 08:40 AM.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 09:15 AM   #10
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Unless something really strange happens and for some reason Illinois makes a game of this, I don't see JH or DB doing anything exotic. We're going to see a lot of Power I formations and PA stuff on offense but I do expect Brown's D will get after it.

Not entirely sure of this and nothing objective to back this up but among Power 5 teams competing for conference crowns and a CFB playoff spot, these teams want to protect the calculations that the selection committee uses. That's an anecdotal observation.

When a team does something like M did to Rutgers, it does have an impact on these calculations. I'd suspect to see JH do what is necessary to "protect calculations." IOW, if Illinois gets fatigued on D because they can't get off the field or decides to quit like Rutgers appeared to do, Harbaugh is not going to call the dogs off.

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Old October 17th, 2016, 10:42 AM   #11
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I'll be shooting a wedding on Saturday. Doubtful that I can achieve the Cone of Silence but I may try for it.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 11:33 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
Unless something really strange happens and for some reason Illinois makes a game of this, I don't see JH or DB doing anything exotic. We're going to see a lot of Power I formations and PA stuff on offense but I do expect Brown's D will get after it.

Not entirely sure of this and nothing objective to back this up but among Power 5 teams competing for conference crowns and a CFB playoff spot, these teams want to protect the calculations that the selection committee uses. That's an anecdotal observation.

When a team does something like M did to Rutgers, it does have an impact on these calculations. I'd suspect to see JH do what is necessary to "protect calculations." IOW, if Illinois gets fatigued on D because they can't get off the field or decides to quit like Rutgers appeared to do, Harbaugh is not going to call the dogs off.

Win with character, win with cruelty.

The funny thing is Harbaugh did call the dogs off at Rutgers. 2nd half was all 2nd and 3rd stringers. He only threw 3 passes in the entire 2nd half, and none of those was over 10 yards. You have to still play the game, and he did pretty much everything he could do other than calling the victory formation as every play in the 4th. And we still whooped them by 78.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 11:36 AM   #13
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I'd say something like:

M 63 - 3.... Illinois gets a cheap field goal in garbage time off of an Int by whatever back-up quarterback is in at that point.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 02:41 PM   #14
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It's crazy that people in Illinois might be longing for the Ron Zook-era.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 03:04 PM   #15
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Tslicher ....... if I remember correctly, the rotation on the DL stayed pretty much in tact until late 4th when Brown got down deep in the roster. It was Wormley, Glasgow and Godin, and then Gary got some snaps along with Charlton. Bryan Mone played well into the 4th (did not start). Hurst was in a good deal at DT. So was Winovich.

Very late we saw Shelton Johnson and Lawrence Marshall. I think I saw Wroblewski and Garrett Miller too. Lots of depth actually as these guys all played well.

I know Peppers went out early 4th buy Lewis and Stribbling played at CB and so did Hill and Dymonte Thomas at S. I think Kinnel and Hudson got some playing time at S but limited..... I also seem to remember Kinnel was in on some late runs by Rutgers previously completely shut down.

You're right on O though but that was nothing unusual and the second team O is not much of a drop off...... against the likes of Rutgers whose defense by that time was just gassed and looked like they'd given up. Sad. No, I take that back. Cruel and highly enjoyable.
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Old October 17th, 2016, 06:32 PM   #16
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Chase Winovich spells Taco Charlton mostly but I've seen them on the field at the same time too; possibly when Winovich is subbing for Rashan Gary.

What Don Brown does a fair bit in nickel, dime situations (3rd down) is put Jabrill Pepper at safety and brings up Delano Hill to cover a receiver and keeps two safeties deep. Doesn't make a ton of sense but I'm sure DB has a good reason for it.
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Old October 18th, 2016, 08:08 AM   #17
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef

Illinois is ranked #122 when it comes to rushing defense. Our previous opponents:

Hawaii: 94
UCF: 52
Colorado: 24
Penn State: 33
Wisconsin: 7
Rutgers: 50
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Old October 18th, 2016, 08:43 AM   #18
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Rutgers is 50th in rushing defense? That's got to be an indictment of the stats more than anything else. Otherwise I'd be very pleased with how that all acquits our rushing attack, which still doesn't quite meet the eye test to me.
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Old October 18th, 2016, 09:11 AM   #19
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Rutgers's rushing defense had one terrific game (only 3.0 ypc allowed against Washington) that is probably skewing the stats a lot. That and their terrible game against OSU doesn't hurt them very much because OSU has the #2 ranked rushing offense. Other than that, I don't know what they would be benefitting from. The advanced stats are still a little questionable but I feel comfortable saying that Ilinois probably isn't any better at stopping the run than Hawaii. They got gashed by Purdue and Purdue is turrrrrible.

Last edited by Hannibal; October 18th, 2016 at 09:30 AM.
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Old October 18th, 2016, 10:14 AM   #20
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Rumor on mgoblog is that Illinois will be starting their third string QB.
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